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潮宏基(002345):产品结构优化升级、渠道扩张加速、品牌势能稳步向上
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's mid-year report for 2025 is in line with expectations, with H1 revenue of 4.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 331 million yuan, up 44.3% year-on-year [7] - Product optimization and accelerated new product launches are driving high revenue growth and improving profit margins, with significant contributions from the fashion jewelry and traditional gold segments [7] - The company is expanding its offline channels, with a net increase of 31 stores in H1 2025, while online sales are also showing positive adjustments [7] - The focus on the main brand and the development of a multi-brand strategy is enhancing brand strength, with a steady increase in brand visibility through various marketing initiatives [7] - The company is pursuing international expansion in Southeast Asia, opening several stores and targeting the overseas Chinese community, which presents significant long-term market potential [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 7.719 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.4% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 561 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 189.7% [3] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 23 [3] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 24.1% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 14.8% [3] Market Data - As of August 27, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 14.36 yuan, with a market capitalization of 12.454 billion yuan [4] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.5 and a dividend yield of 2.44% [4]
潮宏基(002345):差异化产品、定位驱动增长,25Q1业绩超预期
CMS· 2025-05-05 05:01
证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 ❑ 盈利预测与投资建议。公司定位东方时尚,差异化品牌及产品定位顺应年轻悦 潮宏基(002345.SZ) 差异化产品&定位驱动增长,25Q1 业绩超预期 消费品/商业 公司 2024 年营收+10%、剔除商誉减值后归母净利润-5%,25Q1 营收+25%、 归母净利润+44%,一季度业绩超预期,预计主要系品牌年轻时尚定位及差异化 产品力得到认可,IP 串珠、臻金梵华等系列产品拉动终端动销。同时加盟渠道 扩张,2024 年珠宝业务净增 111 家门店、其中加盟店净增 147 家,2024 年加 盟代理收入+32%,2025 年预计渠道稳步扩张。由于公司 2024 年已对 FION 计 提较大额商誉减值,预计 2025 年减值相对有限,且由于 25Q1 业绩增长超预期, 产品差异化&渠道扩张有望继续驱动全年增长,我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归 母净利润分别为 4.65 亿、5.23 亿、5.84 亿,对应 2025PE18.9X,维持"强烈 推荐"评级。 ❑ 产品及渠道结构变化影响毛利率,但 25Q1 费用率随收入扩张明显摊薄,净利 率水平提 ...