公司近况 2026 年初以来老铺黄金延续良好的品牌势能和销售表现。随着春节、情人节等行业旺季来临，叠加金 饰行业的提价预期，我们预计公司有望继续实现良好的终端表现。 评论 品牌势能延续，金价上涨短期影响2H25 毛利。我们观察到老铺黄金品牌势能延续强势，多地门店客流 活跃。渠道端看，公司2H25 继续推进门店优化升级，在香港IFC，上海恒隆广场、深圳湾万象城等重 点商圈新增门店，并优化多家已有店铺，进一步提升品牌影响力与渠道质量，带来了品牌高级感的持续 提升。虽然2H25 公司在 8 月/10 月两次上调产品价格，但考虑到金价快速上涨及产品销售节奏（上海金 交所AU9999 现货收盘价1H25/2H25分别上涨24%/28%），我们预计公司2H25 毛利端仍存在压力。 2026 年初终端销售实现优秀表现。2026 年初老铺黄金继续推出新品午马系列，有效结合中国传统文化 元素与精致制作工艺。在公司品牌力和产品力的加持下，我们预计元旦期间公司国内同店及整体销售分 别实现双位数与三位数同比增长。全年来看，我们预计2026 年老铺黄金国内仍以门店优化为主，海外 市场如日本、新加坡仍有拓店空间。公司在经历了2024-2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in overall channel revenue for Q4 2025, with a decrease in low single-digit sales in offline channels and a flat performance in e-commerce channels [2][6]. - The company is expected to experience a steady recovery by 2026, driven by the introduction of new running shoe technologies and the expansion of its product offerings in outdoor and honor-related categories [9]. - The forecasted net profit for the company is projected to be 2.71 billion, 2.85 billion, and 3.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -10%, +5%, and +7% [9][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The current stock price is HKD 20.40 as of January 16, 2026 [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 28.96 billion, with a growth rate of 1% compared to the previous year [11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.05, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.70 [11]. Market Performance - The company is expected to face challenges in retail performance in the short term, but is anticipated to benefit from brand momentum and product innovation in the long term [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected revenue and profit in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 6.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 317 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year [6] - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and rapid new product launches, which are driving high revenue growth and improving profit margins [6] - The company is accelerating its offline channel expansion, with a net increase of 144 stores in 2025, bringing the total to 1,599 stores [6] - The company is also pursuing an internationalization strategy, expanding into Southeast Asia with stores in Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Singapore [6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to goodwill impairment, projecting net profits of 4.6 billion, 6.5 billion, and 8.0 billion yuan respectively [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 8.19 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.7% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 461 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 138.3% [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 23.1% in 2025, slightly decreasing from previous years [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.5% in 2025, increasing steadily in the following years [2]

Group 1 - Recent nationwide temperature drop and early winter in northern regions are beneficial for the company's main product, down jackets, leading to positive sales impacts, especially in the East China market [1] - The sales peak season has been significantly extended due to the later Chinese New Year date, which is expected to positively influence the company's FY2026 financial performance [1] - The company's main brand has shown strong performance during the ongoing Double Eleven shopping festival [1] Group 2 - Appointment of renowned designer Kim Jones as creative director for the new AREAL high-end urban line is expected to enhance brand strength and international influence, despite the high-end product line's sales contribution being relatively low [2] - The company demonstrates resilient operational performance with projected revenue and profit compound growth rates of 17.66% and 19.73% respectively from FY2021 to FY2025, indicating strong growth potential in the coming years [2] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, averaging around 78% since its listing, which is expected to continue, enhancing investment attractiveness [2] Group 3 - Future earnings forecasts have been slightly adjusted, with EPS predictions for FY26, FY27, and FY28 set at 0.34, 0.38, and 0.42 CNY respectively, and a target price of 6.31 HKD based on a 17x PE for FY26 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.31 HKD, based on a 17x PE for FY26 [4][8]. Core Insights - Recent nationwide cooling and an extended sales season are favorable for the company's main product sales, particularly down jackets [7]. - The sales season has been significantly lengthened due to the later date of the Chinese New Year in 2026, which is expected to positively impact FY2026 performance [7]. - Collaboration with renowned international designer Kim Jones is anticipated to enhance the brand's influence and market position [7]. - The company demonstrates resilient growth with a projected revenue CAGR of approximately 17.66% and profit CAGR of 19.73% from FY2021 to FY2025, indicating strong operational resilience amid economic fluctuations [7]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 23,214 million HKD in FY24A to 34,920 million HKD in FY28E, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 10.7% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3,074 million HKD in FY24A to 4,890 million HKD in FY28E, with a CAGR of about 11.7% [3]. - Earnings per share are forecasted to rise from 0.27 HKD in FY24A to 0.42 HKD in FY28E [3]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, averaging around 78% since its listing, which enhances its investment appeal [7].

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Laopu Gold (06181), setting a target price of HKD 806.52 based on a 20x PE ratio for 2026 performance, highlighting the company's strong brand positioning and growth potential in the high-end market [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total sales revenue of CNY 141.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 249.4%, with total income reaching CNY 123.5 billion, up 251.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 22.7 billion, reflecting a 285.8% increase [1] - The company declared an interim dividend of CNY 9.59 per share, totaling CNY 16.6 billion, with a payout ratio of 73% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from mainland China and overseas for the first half of 2025 was CNY 107.6 billion and CNY 16.0 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 232.8% and 455.2% [2] - The company maintained the highest average revenue per store and sales per square meter among all jewelry brands in mainland China, with an average sales figure of approximately CNY 4.59 billion per store [2] Store Expansion and Market Presence - As of June 30, 2025, the company operated 41 stores across 16 cities, primarily located in 29 renowned commercial centers, including SKP and MixC [3] - The company has entered 9 out of the top 10 commercial centers in China, with plans to open in the last remaining center, Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza, in October 2025 [3] - The number of loyal members increased by 130,000 to 480,000, with a consumer overlap rate of 77.3% with luxury brands like LV, Hermes, Cartier, and Bulgari [3] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 38.1% due to rising gold prices, which increased by 21.53% from January to April 2025 [4] - Selling and administrative expense ratios were 11.9% and 1.7%, respectively, showing a decrease of 3.3 and 1.8 percentage points, while the net profit margin increased by 1.9 percentage points to 19.0% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Laopu Gold (06181), setting a target price of HKD 806.52 based on a 20x PE ratio for 2026 performance, highlighting the company's strong brand positioning and growth potential in the high-end market [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total sales revenue of CNY 141.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 249.4%, and a total income of CNY 123.5 billion, up 251.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 22.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 285.8%, with adjusted net profit at CNY 23.5 billion, up 290.6% [1] - The company declared an interim dividend of CNY 9.59 per share, totaling CNY 16.6 billion, with a payout ratio of 73% [1] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from mainland China and overseas reached CNY 107.6 billion and CNY 16.0 billion, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 232.8% and 455.2% [2] - The company maintained the highest average revenue per store and sales per square meter among all jewelry brands in mainland China during the first half of 2025 [2] - Online platforms generated CNY 16.2 billion in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 313% [2] Group 3: Store Expansion and Market Presence - As of June 30, 2025, the company operated 41 stores across 16 cities, primarily located in 29 renowned commercial centers, including SKP and MixC [3] - The company has entered 9 out of the top 10 major commercial centers in China, with plans to open in the last remaining center by October 2025 [3] - The number of loyal members increased by 130,000 to 480,000, with a consumer overlap rate of 77.3% with other luxury brands [3] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 38.1% due to rising gold prices, which increased by 21.53% from January to April 2025 [4] - Selling and administrative expense ratios improved, with selling expenses down by 3.3 percentage points and administrative expenses down by 1.8 percentage points [4] - The net profit margin increased by 1.9 percentage points to 19.0% due to enhanced scale effects [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating a positive trend in its business performance and market position [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [1]. - Adjusted net profit reached 672 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 32%, with an adjusted profit margin of 26% [1]. - The online and offline revenue for H1 2025 was 1.3 billion yuan and 1.22 billion yuan, respectively, showing increases of 39% and 27% year-on-year [2]. Product Category Performance - Skincare products outperformed color cosmetics, with revenue from skincare growing by 33% compared to 31% for color cosmetics [1]. - Specific product highlights include over 600 million yuan in retail sales for caviar masks (up 33% year-on-year) and over 200 million yuan for black cream [1]. Channel and Market Strategy - The company continued to enhance its presence in high-end markets, opening flagship stores and entering premium shopping areas such as Beijing SKP and Chongqing Star Light 68 [2]. - The repurchase rates improved, with online and offline rates increasing by 2.6 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The net profit margin reached 26% in H1 2025, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, despite a 0.7 percentage point decline in gross margin due to lower margins in color cosmetics and training schools [2]. - Significant cost optimization was noted, with total sales, management, and financial expense rates decreasing by a combined 3.9 percentage points [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a clear growth trend in the short to medium term, supported by a robust pipeline of mid-sized products and strong e-commerce flexibility [3]. - Long-term growth potential is anticipated through category expansion, collaboration with high-end brands, and international market entry [3]. - Projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.25 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.92 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 35.9, 28.4, and 23.3 times [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's mid-year report for 2025 is in line with expectations, with H1 revenue of 4.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 331 million yuan, up 44.3% year-on-year [7] - Product optimization and accelerated new product launches are driving high revenue growth and improving profit margins, with significant contributions from the fashion jewelry and traditional gold segments [7] - The company is expanding its offline channels, with a net increase of 31 stores in H1 2025, while online sales are also showing positive adjustments [7] - The focus on the main brand and the development of a multi-brand strategy is enhancing brand strength, with a steady increase in brand visibility through various marketing initiatives [7] - The company is pursuing international expansion in Southeast Asia, opening several stores and targeting the overseas Chinese community, which presents significant long-term market potential [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 7.719 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.4% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 561 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 189.7% [3] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 23 [3] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 24.1% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 14.8% [3] Market Data - As of August 27, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 14.36 yuan, with a market capitalization of 12.454 billion yuan [4] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.5 and a dividend yield of 2.44% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained outlook [4][15]. Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in e-commerce and product upgrades, particularly for the "Cold Acid Spirit" brand, which shows significant brand momentum [2][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 840 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with a net profit of 85 million yuan, up 17.6% year-on-year [6][8]. - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, with expected figures of 200 million yuan, 260 million yuan, and 310 million yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 25.8%, 26.5%, and 21.0% [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected revenue for 2023A is 1,376 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5%, increasing to 2,485 million yuan by 2027E, with a growth rate of 16% [3][8]. - Net profit is expected to grow from 141 million yuan in 2023A to 310 million yuan in 2027E, with a growth rate of 5% in 2023A and 21% in 2027E [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.82 yuan in 2023A to 1.80 yuan in 2027E, with a corresponding decrease in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 54.0 to 24.6 over the same period [3][8]. Product and Channel Performance - The company has seen significant growth in its product categories, with adult toothpaste and electric oral care products showing year-on-year increases of 23% and 54.9% respectively in H1 2025 [6][8]. - E-commerce sales have surged by 86.6% in H1 2025, contributing to a 36% share of total sales, indicating a successful channel strategy [6][8]. - The overall gross margin improved to 52.6% in H1 2025, up 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product upgrades and effective marketing strategies [6][8].