19 November 2025 | 3:35PM AEDT Equity Research Global Metals & Mining: China M&M Field Trip: Strong steel exports & mill restocking to support Fe; Al/Cu/RE markets robust, Li improving We recently traveled to China with a group of international investors where we visited companies in Beijing, Shandong, Ningbo and Shanghai across the steel/iron ore, coal (metallurgical), copper, aluminium, rare earths, lithium, equipment, property and construction sectors. We came away from the trip with the following conclu ...

Key Takeaways RIO will cut Yarwun alumina output by 40% from October 2026 to extend operations to 2035.The curtailment gives four years to address tailings capacity expected to be reached by 2031.RIO will reduce alumina output by 1.2M tons annually with no customer impact and explore staff redeployment. Rio Tinto Group (RIO) announced that it will cut production by 40% at its Yarwun Alumina Refinery in Gladstone from October 2026. This move will help Rio Tinto to extend the operation’s life until 2035.Impac ...

Core Insights - ArcelorMittal S.A. reported a third-quarter 2025 net income of $377 million, or 50 cents per share, an increase from $287 million, or 37 cents per share, in the same quarter last year [1] - Adjusted earnings were 62 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 58 cents [1] - Total sales increased approximately 3% year over year to $15,657 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $14,711 million [1] Financial Performance - Total steel shipments rose 1.5% year over year to 13.6 million metric tons, beating the consensus estimate of 13.57 million metric tons [2] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were $5,733 million, up from $5,443 million in the prior quarter, with net debt around $9.1 billion [6] Segment Performance - **North America**: Sales increased 20% year over year to $3,111 million, with crude steel production up 0.6% to 1,662 million metric tons and steel shipments rising 8.6% to 2,615 million metric tons, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2,555 million metric tons [2] - **Brazil**: Sales decreased 13% year over year to $2,807 million, with crude steel production down 6% to 3,595 million metric tons and shipments falling 6.8% to 3,530 million metric tons, missing the consensus estimate of 3,646 million metric tons [3] - **Europe**: Sales rose 0.6% year over year to $7,186 million, with crude steel production declining nearly 7.8% to 7,251 million metric tons, while shipments increased around 3% to 7,001 million metric tons, surpassing the consensus mark of 6,871 million metric tons [4] - **Mining**: Sales increased 24.3% year over year to $732 million, with iron ore production totaling 8.5 million metric tons, up 28.8% from the previous year [5] Future Outlook - The European Commission's new steel-sector trade tool and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are expected to enhance fair competition and support industry capacity utilization [7] - The company remains optimistic about its medium- and long-term outlook, anticipating benefits from rising steel demand linked to energy transition, infrastructure development, and defense needs [8] - Recent M&A activities and high-return organic growth projects are expected to boost future EBITDA by $2.1 billion, including $0.7 billion in 2025 and $0.8 billion in 2026 [10] Market Performance - ArcelorMittal's shares have gained 57.9% over the past year, contrasting with a 14.3% decline in the industry [11]

Core Insights - Rio Tinto reported stable iron ore shipments of 84.3 million tons in Q3 2025, flat year-over-year but a 6% increase sequentially, marking the second-highest Q3 performance since 2019 [1] - The company expects Pilbara iron ore shipments for 2025 to be between 323 million tons and 338 million tons, indicating a potential year-over-year decline of 2% to growth of 3% [5] - Analysts have raised earnings estimates for 2025-2026, reflecting improving sentiment towards Rio Tinto [9] Production Highlights - Bauxite production increased by 9% year-over-year to 16.4 million tons in Q3 2025, achieving a production record [3] - Aluminum output rose by 6% year-over-year to 0.86 million tons, while alumina output increased by 7% year-over-year to 1.9 million tons [3] - Copper production reached 204 thousand tons, a 10% increase year-over-year, with record production at Oyu Tolgoi [4] Production Guidance - Rio Tinto's bauxite production target for 2025 is revised to 59-61 million tons, up from 57-59 million tons, reflecting higher utilization rates [6] - Copper production is expected to be near the high end of the range of 780-850 thousand tons for 2025, driven by strong performance at Oyu Tolgoi [7] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rio Tinto's 2025 revenues is $54.90 billion, a 1.6% year-over-year increase, while earnings are projected at $6.09 per share, indicating a 9.1% decline [8] - For 2026, revenue estimates suggest a 3.72% year-over-year increase to $56.94 billion, with earnings projected to grow by 4.6% to $6.37 per share [10][11] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Rio Tinto shares have gained 21.6%, lagging behind the industry's 26.5% growth [13] - The company operates across 35 countries with a diversified portfolio, focusing on new projects to support energy transition [15] Lithium Expansion - Rio Tinto is expanding its lithium portfolio to meet rising demand for batteries and electric vehicles, aiming to grow its capacity to over 200 thousand tons per year of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2028 [16] Valuation - Rio Tinto trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.23, lower than the industry average of 16.43, indicating an attractive valuation [17] Investment Outlook - Despite potential operational headwinds, Rio Tinto's diversified portfolio and project pipeline position it well for future growth, supported by upward earnings revisions and attractive valuation [19]

Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown continues to be a significant topic, impacting market sentiment and leading to rising shares globally [1][3] - Australian shares are expected to open higher, with a potential increase of up to 0.2% [2] Economic Data - Anticipation builds for a release of U.S. economic data, including retail sales and housing statistics, which have been delayed due to the shutdown [3] - The October labor force report for Australia is expected to show a drop in unemployment to 4.4% [4] Company Focus - Gold stocks are gaining attention as bullion prices rise, with Newmont (ASX:NEM) seeing a 3.6% increase to US$93.13 per share, and Evolution (ASX:EVN) up 11% since Monday [5] - The lithium sector is also highlighted, with Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) and IGO Ltd (ASX:IGO) experiencing price increases [6] - Several companies are holding annual general meetings (AGMs) today, including Arena, AUB Group, and Computershare [6] Commodity Prices - The Australian dollar is trading at 65.3 U.S. cents [8] - Iron Ore prices increased by 1.1% to $102.65 per tonne, while Brent Crude oil decreased by 4% to $62.60 per barrel [8] - Gold prices continue to rise, currently at $4,196 per ounce [8]

The world's largest mining project, the Simandou project in Guinea, officially launched on November 11.  The event was a historic milestone for the industry, as the $23 billion mine took nearly three decades from discovery to production.The mine is a joint operation between Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), Winning Consortium Simandou, China Baowu, Chinalco, and the Government of Guinea.Project Scope and Global Iron Ore ImpactAt full capacity, Simandou is expected to produce up to 120 million tons of iron ore annually, ...

Core Insights - Teck Resources Ltd. has been in discussions regarding a potential merger with Vale SA's base metals unit before ultimately deciding to merge with Anglo American Plc [1][2] Group 1: Merger Discussions - Teck disclosed that it was in simultaneous discussions with an unidentified company, referred to as "Party X," while negotiating with Anglo American, which was later identified as Vale Base Metals [2] - Discussions with Vale Base Metals began in May 2023 but faced multiple stalls due to disagreements over valuation and governance considerations, ultimately breaking down in May [3] - Teck proceeded with negotiations with Anglo American, culminating in a transaction announced in September to consolidate a suite of copper, zinc, and iron ore mines [3] Group 2: Industry Context - The mining sector has seen increased merger and acquisition activity, with BHP Group Ltd. making an unsuccessful bid for Anglo in 2024 and Rio Tinto Plc exploring a purchase of Glencore Plc [4] - Teck's discussions with Anglo and Vale followed its rejection of a $23 billion unsolicited offer from Glencore [4] - Teck's copper assets, particularly the Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile, are highly sought after by major mining firms, with its proximity to Collahuasi, another top copper mine owned by Anglo and Glencore, adding to its appeal [5]

Guinea has started shipping iron ore from Simandou, the site of the world’s largest reserve of the mineral https://t.co/c3pNUYCJzA ...

THIS NEWS RELEASE IS NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION INTHE UNITED STATES OR TO U.S. NEWS AGENCIES HONG KONG, Nov. 11, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Century Global Commodities Corporation (“Century” or the “Company”) (TSX: CNT) is pleased to announce that it has filed its condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the second fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025 and the related management discussion and analysis (“MD&A”). Copies of these documents are available under Century’s SEDAR+ profile at http://www.sed ...

Shipping tycoon Sun Xiushun cracked the infrastructure puzzle holding back the world's largest untapped iron ore mine. https://t.co/A5z2GY93N1 ...