Group 1 - Rodney Brooks, co-founder of iRobot, expresses skepticism about humanoid robots fulfilling transformative promises in the industry, predicting that significant investment will vanish as these robots are quickly forgotten [1][4] - Brooks argues that current humanoid robots cannot match the dexterity of human hands, which have approximately 17,000 specialized tactile sensors, making it unlikely for them to achieve similar operational capabilities [1][4] - He emphasizes that humanoid robots rely on high energy input to maintain stability, making them dangerous when they fall, and suggests that successful robots will likely have wheels, multiple arms, and specialized sensors rather than resembling humans [2][5] Group 2 - Brooks warns that substantial funding is being wasted on trying to extract performance from current humanoid robots, which he believes will ultimately be forgotten [3][4] - He predicts that in 15 years, successful robots will likely feature wheels and specialized forms to match tasks and safety costs, rather than attempting to replicate human form [5][6] - Brooks advocates for a focus on specific tasks and safety-compliant non-humanoid forms, along with advanced sensors and materials, rather than the current trend of investing in humanoid robots [6][7] Group 3 - The robotics industry remains a high-growth sector, with Brooks supporting the idea that funding should be directed towards practical robot forms and foundational capabilities rather than humanoid designs [7][8] - Jensen Huang of NVIDIA highlights the potential of robotics and embodied AI as significant growth markets, estimating the overall market size could reach trillions of dollars [7][8] - NVIDIA is positioning itself as a provider of computational power and platforms for embodied AI, focusing on training and simulation tools for the robotics industry [8]

致力于开发消费级机器人的公司iRobot(IRBT.US)联合创始人罗德尼·布鲁克斯(Rodney Brooks)，已经成 为怀疑类人形机器人能否兑现整个行业所有变革式创新承诺的人之一。布鲁克斯同时也是Rethink Robotics("Baxter"机器人的制造商)的联合创始人、麻省理工学院(MIT)Panasonic名誉教授，以及MIT计 算机科学与人工智能实验室前主任。 整体而言，布鲁克斯认为所谓的"人形机器人"在数年内即可像人类那样高效率干活是纯粹幻想"，并断 言"大量的投资资金将消失，今天这些人形机器人会被市场快速地遗忘"，同时预测真正成功的"类人 形"的机器人将改用轮子/多臂/特种传感装备、外形不再像特斯拉CEO马斯所坚信的那样酷似人类。 现有全尺寸人形为保持直立，要持续向系统"灌能量"(如依赖 ZMP 等控制)，一旦失稳跌倒，对近身工 作场景的安全认证就是硬约束;而人类步行则大量利用腱/肌的弹性与被动动力学回收能量——布鲁克斯 认为，这是"像人"的非线性优势，但是现阶段机器人难以复制人类的步行节奏。 布鲁克斯还判断15年后能规模落地的机器人大概率有轮子、可能多臂、使用非人类频段/主动光的传 感， ...

Group 1: OpenAI's Developments - OpenAI is actively recruiting top AI application researchers to advance humanoid robotics and aims to become a leader in embodied AI [1][2] - The company is focusing on developing AI models that can handle complex physical tasks for humanoid robots [1][2] - OpenAI has recently posted job openings for senior engineers specializing in robotics, indicating a strategic push into this field [2][3] Group 2: Industry Trends and Predictions - The concept of "embodied AI" is gaining traction, with significant interest from industry leaders like NVIDIA and Tesla [2][3] - Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is projected to contribute approximately 80% of the company's long-term value, highlighting the strategic importance of robotics for Tesla [3][4] - Morgan Stanley suggests that the humanoid robot market could surpass the total addressable market of the global automotive industry [4] Group 3: Market Growth Projections - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow from approximately $2 billion in 2024 to $15.26 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 39% [7] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the humanoid robot market could reach $75 billion by 2035 and potentially $1 trillion by 2050, with global sales exceeding 70 million units [8] - The next few years are critical for the acceleration of humanoid robot production, with companies like Tesla and Figure AI setting ambitious mass production plans [8]