Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a revitalization with strong performance in antibiotic production and innovative drug development, particularly in the insulin and animal health sectors [1][2][3][4]. Antibiotic and Insulin Business - The company has a leading position in the antibiotic market, focusing on a full industrial chain including key products like 6-APA and amoxicillin, with a stable long-term outlook despite short-term price fluctuations [1]. - The company successfully participated in the national procurement of insulin, achieving A-class bids for all six products, which is expected to enhance market share as the demand for third-generation insulin products increases [1][2]. - The antibiotic procurement risks have been largely mitigated, with most major products already completed in the procurement process [1]. Innovative Drug Development - UBT251, a GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-receptor agonist, has shown promising results in Phase I clinical trials, leading to a significant partnership with Novo Nordisk, including an upfront payment of $200 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.8 billion [1][2]. - The company is also advancing other innovative treatments, including a small molecule RASP inhibitor for dry eye syndrome and a JAK1 inhibitor for atopic dermatitis, both in clinical trials [1]. Financial Performance and Projections - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 137.6 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.1%, driven by a 14.8% increase in intermediate revenue [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue fluctuations in the coming years, projecting revenues of 144.0 billion, 130.0 billion, and 133.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding profit changes [4]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 38.3%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]. Valuation and Market Outlook - The target price for the company's stock is set at 21.9 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 62.2% from the current price, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 12% [2][4]. - The company’s valuation includes 142 billion HKD for its intermediate and raw material business, and 223 billion HKD for its formulation business, alongside 34 billion HKD in net cash [4][5].

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： KAIZEN投资之道 来源：雪球 今天我们谈谈牧原股份 、 恒瑞医药 、 爱尔眼科 。 在投资的世界里 ， 寻找那些拥有核心竞争 力 、 深筑护城河的企业 ， 就如同在茫茫大海中寻找珍贵的珍珠 。 它们不仅能在市场的风浪中 稳稳当当 ， 更能随着时间推移 ， 散发出愈发夺目的光彩 。 2025年一季报的发布 ， 让牧原股份 、 恒瑞医药和爱尔眼科再次成为大家关注的焦点 。 它们各 自代表了生猪养殖 、 创新药和眼科医疗领域的顶尖水平 ， 不仅展现了强劲的业绩 ， 更透露出 未来增长的无限可能 。 接下来的分析 ， 将带你深入探寻这些企业背后的核心竞争力与护城河 ， 以及它们在投资价值上的对比和未来的市场潜力 。 一 、 牧原股份 ： 周期上行+成本优势 ， 生猪养殖龙头护城河稳固 1.2025年一季报业绩 ： 营业总收入360.61亿元 ， 同比增37.26% ； 净利润46.19亿元 ， 同 比增287.87% ； 归母净利润44.91亿元 ， 上年同期亏损23.79亿元 。 2.核心竞争力与护城河 ...