"再通胀"政策意图推升长债压力 市场分析人士指出，政府的财政政策倾向是推高长期收益率的关键因素。Mizuho Securities Co. 经济学家 Yusuke Matsuo 在周一的一份报告中写 道，只要市场参与者继续感知到高市早苗政府具有"再通胀"的政策意图，日本长期国债收益率就可能持续面临上行压力。 基准10年期日本国债收益率周一一度上涨5个基点至2.12%，创下自1999年以来的最高水平。与此同时，20年期和30年期国债收益率也跟随走高。 此次收益率上行紧随美国长期国债的抛售潮，交易员们正重新评估地缘政治风险上升背景下，全球防务支出增加对债券市场的影响。 日本首相高市早苗领导的政府已于上月批准了总额达122.3万亿日元（约合7800亿美元）的预算案，其中防务支出将在明年升至创纪录水平。与此 同时，汇率市场的波动进一步加剧了投资者的不安。尽管日元在经历了连续四年的下跌后，于2025年对美元小幅上涨不到1%，但其整体疲软态势 引发了市场对日本央行控制通胀行动滞后的担忧。 在财政扩张与通胀压力加剧的双重隐忧下，日本国债市场新年伊始即遭遇抛售压力，长期国债收益率显著攀升。 不过，Matsuo 也指出，部分压 ...

Economic Indicators - Japan's household spending unexpectedly fell at the fastest rate in nearly two years in October, indicating the impact of inflation on consumer spending power [2] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached 1.94%, the highest since mid-2007, with a projected rise of 13.5 basis points for the week, marking the steepest increase since March [2] Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1.5%, erasing gains made earlier in the week, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell by 0.1% but was still set for a weekly gain of 0.5% [1] - A quarter-point rate hike from the Bank of Japan is now priced at 75%, following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda about considering the implications of raising interest rates [4] Currency and Capital Flows - The Japanese yen remained stable at 155 per dollar, above its 10-month low of 157.9, reflecting shifting capital flows and changing market expectations [3] - Analysts noted that long-standing expectations regarding a permanently cheap yen are being challenged, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [3] Global Market Overview - In other markets, Australia's resource-heavy shares remained mostly unchanged, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index decreased by 0.5% and South Korea's shares increased by 0.7% [5] - The US dollar steadied after a nine-session decline, trading down 0.1% to 99 against major peers, and down 0.5% for the week [5] Upcoming Economic Data - The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for September is expected to show a 0.2% rise in the core measure, maintaining an annual rate of 2.9% [6] - The US non-farm payrolls report was not released, but jobless claims showed a significant drop, alleviating concerns about the labor market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is facing a critical decision regarding its monetary policy as rising government bond yields threaten to disrupt its normalization process and impact economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Yields and Economic Impact - The yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) reached 1.917%, the highest since 2007, while the 20-year and 30-year JGB yields hit 2.936% and 3.436%, respectively, marking levels not seen since 1999 [2]. - Japan's inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 43 consecutive months, complicating the decision to raise rates amidst rising bond yields [3]. - Rising bond yields are expected to increase borrowing costs, further straining Japan's fiscal situation, which already has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio globally at nearly 230% [4]. Group 2: Government Stimulus and Debt Concerns - The Japanese government is preparing to implement its largest stimulus package since the pandemic, which raises concerns about the country's increasing debt levels [5]. - The new debt issuance of 11.7 trillion yen to finance the supplementary budget is 1.7 times larger than that issued under the previous administration [5][6]. Group 3: Global Market Implications - The unwinding of yen-funded leveraged carry trades due to a hawkish BOJ rate hike and disappointing U.S. macro data led to a significant sell-off in global stocks, with Japan's Nikkei index dropping 12.4% in August 2024 [7]. - Rising Japanese yields have narrowed the rate differential, raising concerns about another potential unwind of carry trades, although experts believe a repeat of the 2024 market meltdown is unlikely [8][9]. - Structural flows from retail allocations in pension funds and life insurance are expected to anchor foreign holdings, making large-scale repatriation of funds into Japan improbable [10].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has returned to a weak state, with government bond futures closing down across the board, and interbank bond yields mostly rising slightly by around 0.5 basis points [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.51% to 113.89, the 10-year main contract down 0.07% to 107.98, the 5-year main contract down 0.06% to 105.77, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02% to 102.388 [2]. - The interbank major rate bond yields showed a weak consolidation, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.05 basis points to 1.828% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.52% at 479.58 points, with a total transaction amount of 443.71 billion [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7.33 basis points to 4.087% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly fell, with the 10-year yield down 1 basis point to 1.867% [3]. - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all increased, with the 10-year French yield rising by 7.5 basis points to 3.482% [3]. Primary Market - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a successful auction with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields at 1.5504%, 1.7565%, and 1.9395% respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.22, 2.4, and 2.89 [4]. Liquidity and Funding - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 156.3 billion at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.5 basis points to 1.302% [5]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the introduction of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) could enhance asset liquidity and potentially lead to a revaluation of related assets and companies [6]. - Huachuang Securities highlighted that the central bank's bond purchase volume in November could be a key observation indicator, with expectations that exceeding 100 billion could catalyze a warming of monetary policy expectations [7].

Core Insights - Recent developments in Japan's government, particularly under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, have led to increased long-dated yields on Japanese government bonds and a depreciation of the yen, which may impact U.S. financial markets [2][4]. Group 1: Japanese Government Bond Market - Aggressive fiscal stimulus measures by Japan's government have resulted in a spike in long-dated yields, with the 10-year yield surpassing 1.78%, the highest in over 17 years, and the 40-year yield reaching an all-time high above 3.7% [2][4]. - The situation in Japan is drawing comparisons to the U.K. crisis in late 2022, which was triggered by unfunded tax cuts, indicating a potential loss of confidence in fiscal policy [2]. Group 2: U.S. Financial Market Implications - The U.S. is facing challenges in managing interest payment costs due to a national debt exceeding $38 trillion, which is influencing the administration's efforts to lower long-term Treasury yields [3]. - Recent U.S. Treasury yields for 2-year and 10-year bonds have reached their lowest levels in three weeks, at 3.51% and nearly 4.06%, respectively, indicating a potential limit on how low U.S. yields can go in light of Japanese developments [5][6]. - The correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and Japanese government bond yields may not be direct, but there is a concern that U.S. yields could rise alongside Japan's, affecting borrowing rates for households and businesses [4][6].

Core Insights - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has reached 1.77%, marking a significant increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous year, allowing Japanese investors to earn returns domestically for the first time in decades [1] - Japan's government debt stands at 235% of GDP, highlighting the unsustainable nature of its fiscal situation compared to the U.S. [2] - Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion in U.S. Treasurys in the third quarter, indicating a significant shift in investment behavior [9] Group 1: Investment Behavior - Japanese life-insurance companies are shifting their focus to long-term Japanese bonds instead of U.S. bonds due to new solvency regulations [8] - The Bank of Japan is reducing its bond purchases, ending a long-standing monetary policy that has kept interest rates low [9] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. has increased to 6.8% from 6.1% at the beginning of the year, reflecting rising borrowing costs due to changes in Japanese investment patterns [13] Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in Japanese bond yields and the selling of U.S. Treasurys could lead to higher borrowing costs for corporations and consumers in the U.S., affecting economic growth [14] - The era of cheap money in the U.S. is coming to an end as Japan, a major lender, no longer needs to finance American consumption [15] - Japan's aging population and rising bond yields indicate a shift in economic priorities, as the country can no longer afford to subsidize U.S. spending [17] Group 3: Market Reactions - Analysts are warning that Japan's withdrawal from U.S. Treasury markets could trigger a global financial crisis, with potential implications for U.S. yields and borrowing costs [11] - The market has begun to react to these changes, with volatility expected as Japan unwinds decades of Treasury purchases [27] - The financial analysts are now using terms like "contagion" and "systemic risk" to describe the potential impact of Japan's economic situation on global markets [30]

Core Insights - Bitcoin recently reached new all-time highs in both U.S. dollar and Japanese yen, driven by the new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's ultra-easy Abenomics policy [1] - The expansionary fiscal policy under Abenomics may lead to increased bond supply, negatively affecting the fiscal outlook [2] - Rising yields on Japanese government bonds (JGB) are impacting investor sentiment and increasing borrowing costs, which could reduce the appeal of riskier assets like Bitcoin [3][4] Bond Market Impact - The 10-year JGB yield reached 1.70%, the highest since July 2008, with a weekly increase of 13.31 basis points and a yearly increase of over 76 basis points [3] - Volatility in Japanese bonds may influence global bond markets, with potential upward pressure on U.S., German, and U.K. yields following shocks in JGB [5] Currency Dynamics - The dollar index has risen to a two-month high, largely due to a 3.5% depreciation of the Japanese yen against the USD since Friday [6] - A stronger dollar often leads to financial tightening, which can limit the upside for Bitcoin and other dollar-denominated assets [7] - While Bitcoin's rally has stalled, gold prices have surged past $4,000 an ounce as investors seek safe-haven assets [7]

Group 1 - Takaichi's victory as Japan's next prime minister raises investor speculation about potential stimulus policies similar to those of Shinzo Abe, which could boost stocks but weaken the yen [1][3] - Takaichi advocates for increased government spending and tax cuts to address rising living costs, while criticizing the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [2][3] - The initial market reaction to Takaichi's win saw Japanese shares reach record highs, with the Nikkei index soaring nearly 5% in two trading sessions [3][4] Group 2 - Comparisons are drawn between Takaichi's leadership and Abe's tenure, which saw significant fiscal stimulus and corporate governance reforms that led to a doubling of the Nikkei index [4][5] - Current economic conditions differ from Abe's time, with Japan facing inflation now compared to deflation a decade ago, and the yen has depreciated significantly since Abe's departure [6] - As of Tuesday, the yen traded at 150.67, with expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike diminishing, leaving the currency vulnerable amid ongoing tariff negotiations with the U.S. [7]

Core Insights - The yen weakened above 150 against the dollar following news of a political victory, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - Japanese government bonds experienced a slight decline, reflecting investor reactions to the political developments [1] - The Nikkei 225 equity index surged nearly 5%, reaching a record high, showcasing strong investor confidence in the Japanese stock market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Volatility in Japan's longer-dated government bonds is increasing following Sanae Takaichi's election win, which is expected to impact global markets, including the US and UK [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Yields on Japan's 40-year debt increased by as much as 17 basis points, driven by expectations that Takaichi's pro-stimulus policies may lead to more government bond sales [3]. - Yields on UK and US 30-year bonds rose by up to six basis points, reaching 5.56% and 4.77% respectively, as a result of the pressure from Japanese bond movements [3]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that for every 10 basis point increase in Japanese government bonds (JGB), there will be a corresponding rise of two to three basis points in US, German, and UK yields [2]. Group 2: Strategic Insights - Goldman Sachs noted that Japan has been a net exporter of bearish shocks to global long-end rates this year, predicting higher long-end JGB yields and a steeper yield curve following Takaichi's election [4]. - The recent volatility in Japanese government bonds has been a precursor to movements in global counterparts, with concerns over fiscal deficits amplifying the situation [5]. - The sustainability of the long-end selloff will depend on the evolution of the political landscape in Japan [7]. Group 3: Government Actions - Japan's finance ministry has proposed to reduce the issuance of super-long term government bonds in upcoming auctions as a measure to support long-dated bonds [6]. - Investors had been cautious about fiscal spending prior to Takaichi's victory, with opposition parties advocating for tax cuts, indicating a complex political environment affecting bond markets [8].