资产管理公司Ashmore首席执行官Mark Coombs表示，像英国等财政赤字持续、依赖金融市场融资的国 家，毫无疑问正面临再次出现"特拉斯时刻"的风险（指2022年时任英国首相特拉斯推出大规模减税政策 后引发的市场动荡）。"如果你是这样的国家，一旦投资者对你失去信心，问题远不止是价格重估，你 将面临整个债券收益率曲线部分区域的'买家罢购'。一旦信心崩塌，就会遭遇真正的市场冲击。"然 而，太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）联席董事John Studzinski持不同意见。"我认为不会出现另一个'特 拉斯时刻'。如果你提前预判了风险，就不会出现恐慌性抛售。当时'特拉斯时刻'的成因，三分之一是政 策，三分之二是英国养老基金LDI对冲策略引发的连锁反应。" ...

Group 1 - A series of long-term sovereign bond auctions globally have faced weak demand, raising concerns about the sustainability of government financing plans in countries like the US and Japan [1] - Japan's 30-year bond auction marked the third consecutive weak auction in three weeks, with one demand indicator hitting its lowest level in 2023 [1] - The upcoming US auctions of 10-year and 30-year bonds are under scrutiny due to growing concerns over the expanding fiscal deficit, leading investors to demand higher risk premiums for holding long-term US bonds [1] Group 2 - The market reaction to the auction results was relatively stable, with Japanese long-term bonds continuing to rise, influenced by weak US employment data and expectations of potential Fed rate cuts [3] - Demand fluctuations have prompted some countries to adjust their bond issuance strategies, with Japan seeking market participants' opinions on bond issuance and the UK reducing its long-term gilt issuance to a historical low [3] - The rising global yield trend signals investor concerns over the sustainability of government borrowing at near-zero interest rates, with fears of a repeat of the UK bond market crisis in 2022 [3]

Group 1 - A concerning trend is emerging in the global bond market, with investors showing unprecedented indifference to expanding government borrowing plans across major economies [1] - Recent long-term government bond auctions have faced significant demand issues, with Japan's 30-year bond auction recording a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.92, well below the 12-month average of 3.39, marking the lowest level in 2023 [1] - Similar weak demand has been observed in Australia and South Korea, indicating a broader trend of investor reluctance towards government bonds [1] Group 2 - The rising debt levels are diminishing the attractiveness of long-term bonds, as investors are increasingly hesitant to support government spending plans amid persistent inflation and uncertain interest rate environments [3] - The Bloomberg global long-term deficit indicator has surged to its highest level since 2008, reflecting the ambitious funding needs of governments worldwide [3] - Some governments are reconsidering their borrowing strategies in response to weak demand, with Japan conducting surveys to gauge market participants' views on bond issuance [3] Group 3 - Concerns are growing that the situation may lead to a repeat of the 2022 bond market turmoil in the UK, triggered by significant tax cuts proposed by then-Prime Minister Liz Truss [2][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase for four out of seven G7 economies over the next five years, highlighting the pressure on bond investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Christoph Rieger, head of interest rates and credit research at Deutsche Bank, expresses caution regarding the U.S. Treasury yields and the uncertain impact of Trump's "beautiful plan" on the U.S. debt market [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields - U.S. Treasury yields have slightly retreated, influenced by a decline in long-term Treasury yields [1] - The rebound in U.S. Treasury yields is met with caution due to the fragile economic recovery [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - There is uncertainty about whether Trump's tax plan will lead to a "Truss moment" for U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The reference to the "Truss moment" highlights the global investor reaction to significant fiscal changes, as seen with former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss's tax cuts and deregulation [1]

Group 1: Economic Insights - Torsten Slok warns that if the Trump administration continues high tariff policies (average rate rising from 3% to 18%), it could shrink US GDP by 4%, equivalent to erasing California's economy [1] - The current US policies are causing a dual crisis in strategic coordination, with internal governance issues and external trust erosion, undermining the US's soft power as a free trade order maintainer [1] - The decline in US soft power is linked to the over-reliance on hard power tools like tariffs, which accelerates the loss of international discourse power [1] Group 2: Energy Sector Challenges - Falling oil prices are forcing US oil companies to cut production and lay off workers, revealing vulnerabilities in the energy sector's technological reserves and capital resilience [2] - The trend of reduced upstream investment is evident as oil service companies like Baker Hughes cut exploration budgets, stifling technological innovation [2] - The traditional energy giants, such as Chevron, are experiencing profit declines, weakening their ability to dominate industry rules through capital strength [2] Group 3: Financial Market Dynamics - Slok highlights the potential for a "Truss moment" due to soaring US Treasury yields, indicating a crisis in fiscal credit soft power [2] - The market's trust in fiscal discipline is waning, as evidenced by the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.6%, reflecting concerns over long-term fiscal credibility [2] - The current turmoil in the Treasury market underscores the absence of mechanisms for "expectation anchoring" and "risk-sharing" in monetary policy soft power [2] Group 4: Structural Economic Risks - Despite predicting a 0% probability of US recession by 2025, Slok identifies ten significant risks, including a 90% probability of tariff increases and Nvidia's performance falling short of expectations [3] - The over-dependence on a single company (Nvidia) for AI industry narratives poses a risk to innovation leadership, especially if the technological dividend fades [3] - The reliance on government spending for economic growth, with 25% of new jobs coming from the public sector, highlights structural weaknesses in the US economy [3] Group 5: Soft Power Framework - Slok's multidimensional warnings reveal a systematic decline in the US's soft power across strategic resource integration, institutional resilience, and technological leadership [3] - To rebuild soft power, the US must move beyond short-term policy games towards a governance model that includes rule co-construction, technological symbiosis, and debt co-governance [3]