Group 1 - A series of long-term sovereign bond auctions globally have faced weak demand, raising concerns about the sustainability of government financing plans in countries like the US and Japan [1] - Japan's 30-year bond auction marked the third consecutive weak auction in three weeks, with one demand indicator hitting its lowest level in 2023 [1] - The upcoming US auctions of 10-year and 30-year bonds are under scrutiny due to growing concerns over the expanding fiscal deficit, leading investors to demand higher risk premiums for holding long-term US bonds [1] Group 2 - The market reaction to the auction results was relatively stable, with Japanese long-term bonds continuing to rise, influenced by weak US employment data and expectations of potential Fed rate cuts [3] - Demand fluctuations have prompted some countries to adjust their bond issuance strategies, with Japan seeking market participants' opinions on bond issuance and the UK reducing its long-term gilt issuance to a historical low [3] - The rising global yield trend signals investor concerns over the sustainability of government borrowing at near-zero interest rates, with fears of a repeat of the UK bond market crisis in 2022 [3]

Group 1 - A concerning trend is emerging in the global bond market, with investors showing unprecedented indifference to expanding government borrowing plans across major economies [1] - Recent long-term government bond auctions have faced significant demand issues, with Japan's 30-year bond auction recording a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.92, well below the 12-month average of 3.39, marking the lowest level in 2023 [1] - Similar weak demand has been observed in Australia and South Korea, indicating a broader trend of investor reluctance towards government bonds [1] Group 2 - The rising debt levels are diminishing the attractiveness of long-term bonds, as investors are increasingly hesitant to support government spending plans amid persistent inflation and uncertain interest rate environments [3] - The Bloomberg global long-term deficit indicator has surged to its highest level since 2008, reflecting the ambitious funding needs of governments worldwide [3] - Some governments are reconsidering their borrowing strategies in response to weak demand, with Japan conducting surveys to gauge market participants' views on bond issuance [3] Group 3 - Concerns are growing that the situation may lead to a repeat of the 2022 bond market turmoil in the UK, triggered by significant tax cuts proposed by then-Prime Minister Liz Truss [2][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase for four out of seven G7 economies over the next five years, highlighting the pressure on bond investors [3]

英国前首相特拉斯宣布的减税、去监管和借贷计划惊动了全球投资者，以至于英镑兑美元汇率跌至历史 新低。 特拉斯减税 德商银行：不清楚美债是否会迎来"特拉斯时刻" 金十数据5月23日讯，德商银行利率和信贷研究主管Christoph Rieger在一份报告中说，美国国债收益率 略有回落，受长期国债收益率拉低，但对脆弱的经济复苏仍需保持谨慎。美国国债出现反弹之际，我们 保持谨慎，因为目前还不清楚特朗普的"美丽大法案"是否会让美国国债迎来"特拉斯时刻"。 特拉斯减税 特拉斯减税 ...

Group 1: Economic Insights - Torsten Slok warns that if the Trump administration continues high tariff policies (average rate rising from 3% to 18%), it could shrink US GDP by 4%, equivalent to erasing California's economy [1] - The current US policies are causing a dual crisis in strategic coordination, with internal governance issues and external trust erosion, undermining the US's soft power as a free trade order maintainer [1] - The decline in US soft power is linked to the over-reliance on hard power tools like tariffs, which accelerates the loss of international discourse power [1] Group 2: Energy Sector Challenges - Falling oil prices are forcing US oil companies to cut production and lay off workers, revealing vulnerabilities in the energy sector's technological reserves and capital resilience [2] - The trend of reduced upstream investment is evident as oil service companies like Baker Hughes cut exploration budgets, stifling technological innovation [2] - The traditional energy giants, such as Chevron, are experiencing profit declines, weakening their ability to dominate industry rules through capital strength [2] Group 3: Financial Market Dynamics - Slok highlights the potential for a "Truss moment" due to soaring US Treasury yields, indicating a crisis in fiscal credit soft power [2] - The market's trust in fiscal discipline is waning, as evidenced by the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.6%, reflecting concerns over long-term fiscal credibility [2] - The current turmoil in the Treasury market underscores the absence of mechanisms for "expectation anchoring" and "risk-sharing" in monetary policy soft power [2] Group 4: Structural Economic Risks - Despite predicting a 0% probability of US recession by 2025, Slok identifies ten significant risks, including a 90% probability of tariff increases and Nvidia's performance falling short of expectations [3] - The over-dependence on a single company (Nvidia) for AI industry narratives poses a risk to innovation leadership, especially if the technological dividend fades [3] - The reliance on government spending for economic growth, with 25% of new jobs coming from the public sector, highlights structural weaknesses in the US economy [3] Group 5: Soft Power Framework - Slok's multidimensional warnings reveal a systematic decline in the US's soft power across strategic resource integration, institutional resilience, and technological leadership [3] - To rebuild soft power, the US must move beyond short-term policy games towards a governance model that includes rule co-construction, technological symbiosis, and debt co-governance [3]