Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 348.00, reflecting a significant upside from the current closing price of HKD 263.20 [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue increase of no less than 200% for 1H25, translating to approximately RMB 13.67 billion, with Q2 growth potentially exceeding 220% [1]. - The group's profit is projected to increase by no less than 350%, indicating strong operational performance and market demand [1]. - The company is establishing itself as a global leader in the IP (Intellectual Property) space, leveraging product innovation to enhance IP value [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant profit increase of no less than 350% for H1, corresponding to approximately RMB 4.34 billion and a net profit margin of 31.7%, an increase of over 10 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards by 56.9%, 68.9%, and 68.4% to RMB 10.2 billion, RMB 15.2 billion, and RMB 19.7 billion respectively [5]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market continues to show strong momentum, with average store efficiency increasing by 60% in Q2, and online sales on platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin growing over 170% [2]. - The company’s IP, particularly the Labubu plush series, has gained significant traction, leading to high demand and premium pricing [2]. Global Expansion - The company has seen a rapid increase in its global fan base, with North American and European followers growing by over 1400% and 600% respectively in Q2 [3]. - The establishment of over 30 new overseas stores in H1, with a focus on high-efficiency regions, indicates a robust international expansion strategy [3]. Innovation and Product Development - Continuous product innovation, particularly in the plush category, is expected to drive sales growth and enhance brand value [2]. - The company is diversifying its offerings through various business models, including merchandise stores and animated content, which are anticipated to further enhance revenue streams [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while Miniso's Q1 2025 revenue met expectations, the significant increase in marketing expenses led to core operating profits falling short of market forecasts [1][4][6] Group 2 - Overall revenue for Q1 2025 reached 4.43 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19%, aligning with expectations. Domestic revenue was 2.84 billion RMB, up 13.3%, while overseas revenue was 1.59 billion RMB, growing 30% [2][14] - The company has slowed its store opening pace, with a net decrease of 111 domestic stores, marking the first decline in total store count. Closures were primarily in lower-tier cities, while first-tier cities focused on optimizing store locations [3][17] - Same-store sales growth in China showed a narrowing decline, while overseas performance remained flat. New product categories and partnerships with Meituan enhanced store efficiency [24][25] - Gross margin remained stable at 44%, despite rising overseas procurement costs. The increase in IP licensing fees (up 40%) and significant rent and depreciation costs (up 71%) led to a marketing expense ratio of 23.1% [27][29] - Core operating profit and adjusted EBITDA were 710 million RMB and 1.04 billion RMB, respectively, both below market expectations [4][29] Group 3 - The article highlights that Miniso's strategy of relying on IP licensing has resulted in a lower premium compared to competitors with stronger original design capabilities, indicating a potential risk in profitability [6][7] - The increase in rental costs is attributed to the expansion of overseas direct stores, particularly in North America, raising concerns about the profitability of these operations [8][26] - Future performance is expected to improve as same-store sales in major markets, including the U.S., have turned positive since April, suggesting potential for marginal improvement in upcoming quarters [8][6]