凭借明星药的热销，"药王"宝座竞争激烈。作为礼来业绩增长主力的双靶点重磅降糖/减肥药替尔泊 肽，今年前三季度的销售额已经超越默沙东明星药"K药"帕博利珠单抗（233.03亿美元），大卖248.4亿 美元，业内预期该药有望冲击今年全球"药王"。 默沙东的"K药"是近几年全球最畅销的PD-1单抗，获批适应症超30项，于2023年问鼎"药王"，并在2024 年蝉联销冠。从今年上半年销售业绩来看，诺和诺德的司美格鲁肽、K药、替尔泊肽之间的差距并不 大，K药已经被司美格鲁肽赶超，替尔泊肽紧追其后。 今年前三季度，K药的销售收入增势已趋缓，当前已被替尔泊肽赶超。而诺和诺德尚未发布今年的三季 报，其王牌降糖/减肥药司美格鲁肽的销售额尚未披露，能否稳当销冠尚不得而知。 据礼来披露的三季报，今年前三季度，礼来实现营收458.9亿美元，替尔泊肽成为其营收的主力贡献产 品。其中，Mounjaro（降糖版替尔泊肽）今年第三季度销售额为65.15亿美元，同比增长109%，前三季 度销售额为155.56亿美元，同比增长94%； Zepbound（减重版替尔泊肽）第三季度销售额为35.88亿美 元，同比增长185%，前三季度销售额达到92 ...

Key Takeaways Merck's Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.58 beat estimates and rose 64% year over year.Q3 revenues grew 4% to $17.28B, led by oncology, new drugs and animal health segments.Merck narrowed 2025 sales view to $64.5-$65.0B while raising adjusted EPS forecast.Merck (MRK) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.58, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.36. Earnings increased 64% year over year on a reported basis and 65% excluding foreign exchange (Fx).Revenues in the third ...

For the quarter ended September 2025, Merck (MRK) reported revenue of $17.28 billion, up 3.7% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $2.58, compared to $1.57 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue represents a surprise of +1.24% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.06 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $2.36, the EPS surprise was +9.32%.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expecta ...

Core Insights - Merck (MRK.US) announced that its dual oral therapy Welireg (belzutifan) combined with lenvatinib met one of its primary endpoints for progression-free survival (PFS) in a Phase III trial for advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients who had disease progression after prior anti-PD-1/L1 therapy [1] Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - The mid-term analysis showed that the combination of belzutifan and lenvatinib demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in PFS compared to cabozantinib [2] - The combination therapy also showed statistically significant improvement in the key secondary endpoint of objective response rate (ORR) compared to cabozantinib [2] Group 2: Industry Context - RCC is the most common type of kidney cancer, accounting for approximately 90% of kidney cancer diagnoses [2] - In 2022, there were about 435,000 new cases of kidney cancer globally, with approximately 156,000 deaths attributed to the disease [2] - The incidence of RCC is about twice as high in men compared to women, with around 30% of kidney cancer patients diagnosed at an advanced stage [2]

Core Insights - Exelixis' lead drug, Cabometyx, has received FDA approval for label expansion to treat adult and pediatric patients aged 12 and older with previously treated, unresectable, locally advanced or metastatic well-differentiated pancreatic and extra-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NET) in March 2025, marking a significant advancement for the company [1][10] Product Overview - Cabometyx is the first and only systemic treatment FDA approved for previously treated NET, applicable regardless of primary tumor site, grade, somatostatin receptor expression, and functional status [2] - The drug is noted as the first broadly applicable new oral small molecule therapy for NET in nine years [2] Market Demand and Performance - Initial uptake for Cabometyx's new indication is strong, capturing 35% of the new patient share for oral therapies in this indication, with demand just over 4% of total demand for cabozantinib in Q2 [3][10] - Exelixis expects Cabometyx to be widely used across various patient and tumor characteristics, including those with NET from the pancreas, GI tract, and lung [5] Regulatory Approvals - In July, Exelixis announced that its partner Ipsen received regulatory approval for Cabometyx for adult patients with unresectable or metastatic well-differentiated extra-pancreatic and pancreatic NET in the EU [4] Competitive Landscape - Cabometyx faces competition from Novartis' Lutathera, which is also used for treating gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NETs) [6] - In the renal cell carcinoma (RCC) space, Cabometyx competes with Merck's Keytruda and Inlyta, as well as Merck's Welireg [7][8] Financial Performance - Exelixis shares have gained 13.8% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 4% [9][10] - The company's valuation is considered high, with a price/sales ratio of 4.07x forward sales, above its mean of 3.64x and the biotech industry's 1.58x [11] Earnings Estimates - The bottom-line estimate for 2025 has increased from $2.65 to $2.68, while the estimate for 2026 has decreased from $3.13 to $3.08 over the past 30 days [12]

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) reported Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.13, exceeding estimates, but a 7% decline year-over-year on a reported basis due to a $200 million upfront payment for a license agreement with Hengrui Pharma [2][9][17] - Revenues decreased 2% year-over-year to $15.81 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [3][9] Sales Performance of Oncology Drugs - Keytruda sales reached $7.96 billion, a 9% increase, driven by strong uptake in various cancer indications, surpassing estimates [4][9] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed positively, with Lynparza sales up 15% to $370 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $265 million, up 5% [5] Sales Performance of Other Key Products - HPV vaccine sales (Gardasil and Gardasil 9) fell 55% to $1.13 billion due to reduced demand in China, missing estimates [7] - Sales of other vaccines showed mixed results, with Vaxneuvance increasing 20% to $229 million, while Rotateq and Pneumovax 23 saw significant declines [8][10] Animal Health Segment - The Animal Health segment generated $1.65 billion in revenues, an 11% increase year-over-year, driven by higher demand and the inclusion of Elanco aqua business sales [12] Cost and Margin Discussion - Adjusted gross margin improved to 82.2%, up 130 basis points year-over-year, attributed to a favorable product mix [13] - Adjusted R&D spending rose 15% to $3.99 billion, influenced by the upfront payment to Hengrui Pharma and increased compensation costs [14] 2025 Guidance - Merck narrowed its 2025 revenue guidance to $64.3-$65.3 billion, reflecting a less negative currency impact [15] - Adjusted EPS guidance is now between $8.87 and $8.97, accounting for a revised negative impact from foreign exchange [16] Acquisition Plans - Merck announced plans to acquire Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion, expected to close in Q4 2025, which will enhance its portfolio in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [19]

Core Insights - Merck reported $15.81 billion in revenue for Q2 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.9% and an EPS of $2.13, down from $2.28 a year ago, with a slight revenue surprise of -0.02% against estimates [1] - The consensus EPS estimate was $2.01, resulting in an EPS surprise of +5.97% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Merck's stock has returned +6.2% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.6% [3] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3] Sales Performance by Product - Keytruda (Oncology) U.S. sales reached $4.75 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $4.67 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +7.6% [4] - Keytruda (Oncology) International sales were $3.21 billion, surpassing the $3.16 billion estimate, marking a +12.2% year-over-year change [4] - Janumet (Diabetes) U.S. sales were $68 million, significantly above the $45.63 million estimate, reflecting a +300% year-over-year increase [4] - Lynparza (Oncology) U.S. alliance revenue was $174 million, exceeding the $140.82 million estimate, with a +13.7% year-over-year change [4] - Lynparza (Oncology) international alliance revenue reached $370 million, surpassing the $321.44 million estimate, representing a +16.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Winrevair (Cardiovascular) sales were $336 million, slightly below the $343.79 million estimate [4] - Lenvima (Oncology) alliance revenue was $265 million, exceeding the $244.01 million estimate, with a +6.4% year-over-year change [4] - Keytruda (Oncology) total sales were $7.96 billion, slightly above the $7.9 billion estimate, reflecting a +9.4% year-over-year change [4] - Animal health sales reached $1.65 billion, exceeding the $1.55 billion estimate, with an +11.1% year-over-year increase [4] - Gardasil (Vaccines) sales were $1.13 billion, below the $1.3 billion estimate, showing a -54.6% year-over-year decline [4] - Welireg (Oncology) sales were $162 million, exceeding the $154.16 million estimate [4] - Lagevrio (Virology) sales were $83 million, surpassing the $55.63 million estimate, but reflecting a -24.6% year-over-year decline [4]

Core Viewpoint - Merck is set to report its second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 29, with consensus estimates for sales at $15.77 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.99, reflecting a decline in earnings estimates over the past month [1][6]. Earnings Estimates and Trends - The current EPS estimate for Q2 is $1.99, down from $2.03 30 days ago, indicating a downward trend in earnings expectations [2]. - The average earnings surprise over the last four quarters is 3.82%, with the last quarter showing a surprise of 3.26% [3]. Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - Keytruda, Merck's leading cancer drug, is expected to drive top-line growth in Q2, with sales estimates for Keytruda at $7.90 billion [5][7]. - Other drugs like Lynparza and new products such as Capvaxive are anticipated to contribute positively to pharmaceutical sales [6][14]. Performance of Specific Products - Sales of Keytruda are likely boosted by its uptake in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer and continued demand in metastatic indications [7]. - The HPV vaccine Gardasil is expected to see mixed results, with lower demand in China but increased sales in other markets [10]. - Generic competition is impacting sales of certain products, such as Bridion, while new drugs like Winrevair and Capvaxive are showing promising sales growth [11][13]. Valuation and Market Performance - Merck's shares have underperformed the industry and the S&P 500, with a year-to-date loss of 13.9% [16][22]. - The company's price/earnings ratio of 9.05 is lower than the industry average of 15.25, suggesting potential attractiveness from a valuation perspective [17]. Strategic Developments - Merck's acquisition of Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion is expected to enhance its cardio-pulmonary pipeline [21][23]. - Despite the strength of Keytruda, there are concerns regarding the company's reliance on this drug and the need for diversification [20][24]. Long-Term Outlook - While Merck faces challenges such as declining sales for Gardasil in China and potential competition for Keytruda, the company is expected to maintain strong sales until Keytruda's patent expiration in 2028 [26][27]. - Long-term investors are encouraged to stay invested, while short-term investors may consider selling due to immediate challenges [27].

Core Viewpoint - Merck reported strong first-quarter 2025 results, exceeding earnings and sales estimates, driven by Keytruda and new product launches, despite challenges in the HPV vaccine sales in China [1][2][28]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings were $2.22 per share, a 12% increase year over year, while revenues reached $15.53 billion, up 1% year over year [1]. - Keytruda generated $7.21 billion in sales, a 6% increase year over year, while Gardasil sales declined by 40% due to lower demand in China [2][14]. - Merck maintained its sales guidance for 2025 in the range of $64.1 billion to $65.6 billion, expecting sales to accelerate in the second half of the year [2][25]. Margin and Guidance Adjustments - Adjusted gross margin guidance was lowered by 50 basis points to 80% due to tariff impacts, with an expected cost of $200 million from tariffs [3]. - Adjusted EPS guidance was revised down from $8.88-$9.03 to $8.82-$8.97, including a one-time charge of 6 cents related to an M&A transaction [3]. Key Products and Pipeline - Keytruda remains a significant driver, accounting for approximately 50% of pharmaceutical sales, with ongoing growth expected from early-stage lung cancer indications [4][5]. - Merck's pipeline has expanded significantly, with plans to launch around 20 new vaccines and drugs, including Capvaxive and Winrevair, which have strong revenue potential [9][10][28]. Strategic Initiatives - Merck is pursuing innovative strategies for Keytruda's growth, including combinations with other therapies and developing a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine in partnership with Moderna [6][12]. - The company has invested $12 billion in U.S. manufacturing since 2018, with an additional $9 billion planned through 2028 to enhance supply chain resilience [26]. Market Position and Challenges - Merck's stock has underperformed compared to the industry and S&P 500, with a 16.1% decline year-to-date [16][19]. - Concerns exist regarding the reliance on Keytruda, especially with its patent expiration in 2028 and increasing competition from other therapies [12][13][28].

Core Insights - Merck reported Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.22, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.15, with a year-over-year earnings increase of 7% on a reported basis and 12% excluding foreign exchange impacts [1][2] - Revenues declined 2% year-over-year to $15.53 billion, but still surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.39 billion [2] Sales Performance - Keytruda, Merck's flagship product, generated sales of $7.21 billion, a 6% increase, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.55 billion due to timing issues in wholesaler purchases [3] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed positively, with Lynparza sales increasing 8% to $312 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $258 million, up 2% [4] - Welireg sales surged 63% to $137 million, driven by higher demand in the U.S. [5] Vaccine Sales - Sales of HPV vaccines Gardasil and Gardasil 9 fell 40% to $1.33 billion, primarily due to lower demand in China [6] - Combined sales of Proquad, M-M-R II, and Varivax vaccines decreased 5% to $539 million, while sales of the pneumococcal 15-valent conjugate vaccine Vaxneuvance rose 7% to $230 million [7][8] Diabetes and Other Products - Sales of the Januvia/Janumet franchise rose 21% year-over-year to $796 million, benefiting from higher net pricing in the U.S. [9] - New PAH drug Winrevair generated $280 million in sales, up from $200 million in the previous quarter [9] Animal Health Segment - The Animal Health segment generated revenues of $1.59 billion, up 5% year-over-year, driven by higher demand for livestock products [11] Cost and Margin Analysis - Adjusted gross margin was 82.2%, up 100 basis points year-over-year, while adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses rose 3% to $2.53 billion [12] - Adjusted R&D spending decreased 9% to $3.61 billion, attributed to lower business development charges [13] 2025 Guidance - Merck maintained its sales guidance for 2025, expecting revenues between $64.1 billion and $65.6 billion, with a revised negative impact from foreign exchange of around 1% [14] - Adjusted EPS guidance was revised to a range of $8.82 to $8.97, accounting for a one-time charge related to a licensing agreement [16] Market Reaction and Future Outlook - Shares of Merck traded higher in pre-market following the earnings report, despite a 21% year-to-date decline compared to a 3% fall in the industry [19] - The company is aware of its reliance on Keytruda and is taking steps to diversify its portfolio, with a late-stage pipeline that has nearly tripled over the past three years [21]