Merck (MRK) reported $16.4 billion in revenue for the quarter ended December 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 5%. EPS of $2.04 for the same period compares to $1.72 a year ago.The reported revenue represents a surprise of +1.33% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.19 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $2.03, the EPS surprise was +0.62%.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expect ...

Core Viewpoint - Merck reported strong fourth-quarter earnings driven by demand for its cancer immunotherapy Keytruda, but provided a modest 2026 outlook that fell short of Wall Street expectations due to upcoming patent expirations and generic competition [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter, Merck posted net income of $2.96 billion, or $1.19 per share, compared to $3.74 billion, or $1.48 per share, in the same period last year [4]. - Adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter were $2.04 per share, slightly above the expected $2.01 per share [6]. - Revenue for the quarter was $16.4 billion, a 5% increase from the previous year, and exceeded expectations of $16.19 billion [5][6]. 2026 Outlook - Merck anticipates 2026 revenue between $65.5 billion and $67 billion, lower than analysts' expectations of $67.6 billion [2]. - The company expects adjusted earnings per share to be between $5 and $5.15, compared to the analyst estimate of $5.36 [2]. Acquisition and Charges - The 2026 guidance includes a one-time charge of approximately $9 billion, or around $3.65 per share, related to the acquisition of Cidara, which is developing a flu prevention drug [3]. Cost Management - Merck is implementing a cost-cutting plan aimed at reducing expenses by $3 billion by the end of 2027 to offset revenue losses from the upcoming patent expiration of Keytruda in 2028 [5]. Drug Pricing Deal - Under a "most favored nation" deal, Merck will sell existing treatments to Medicaid patients at the lowest price offered in other developed nations and will receive a three-year reprieve from tariffs [4].

Core Viewpoint - Merck (MRK) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.04 per share, an 18.6% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $16.19 billion, reflecting a 3.6% increase compared to the same period last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 85.2%, indicating a significant reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Analysts estimate 'Sales- Vaccines- Vaxneuvance' at $178.52 million, a 10.9% increase year-over-year [5]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Keytruda' is projected to reach $8.31 billion, reflecting a 6.1% increase from the previous year [5]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lenvima' is expected to be $243.71 million, indicating a 4.4% decrease year-over-year [5]. Additional Sales Estimates - 'Sales- Vaccines- Gardasil' is projected at $1.04 billion, showing a significant decline of 32.9% year-over-year [6]. - 'Sales- Hospital Acute Care- Bridion - U.S.' is expected to reach $418.39 million, a 9.5% increase year-over-year [6]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Keytruda - International' is estimated at $3.39 billion, reflecting a 13.3% increase year-over-year [6]. Further Sales Insights - 'Sales- Diabetes- Janumet - U.S.' is forecasted at $69.57 million, a decrease of 23.6% year-over-year [7]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lynparza - U.S.' is expected to be $176.62 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% [7]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lynparza - International' is projected at $211.75 million, indicating a 13.2% increase year-over-year [8]. Market Performance - Merck shares have recorded a return of +1.6% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.8% change [9]. - Based on its Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), Merck is expected to underperform the overall market in the upcoming period [10].

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to face increased pressure in the U.S. vaccine sector by 2026, while commercial insurance opens new pathways for drug companies entering the Chinese market [3][9]. Group 1: U.S. Pharmaceutical Pricing and Investment - Concerns regarding U.S. drug pricing reforms have diminished as many pharmaceutical companies commit to significant investments in the U.S. and sign pricing agreements with the government [4]. - Major companies have pledged substantial investments, including Pfizer and Merck at $70 billion each, and Roche at $50 billion, among others, to enhance manufacturing capacity in the U.S. [5]. - The U.S. government has implemented a maximum fair price for certain drugs, with notable price reductions observed in negotiations, such as Merck's Januvia priced at $113 and similar drugs at $80 and $78 [6]. Group 2: Chinese Pharmaceutical Market Dynamics - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug List will add 114 new drugs, with expected price reductions of 40%-50% for those included, reflecting a more mature negotiation mechanism [9][11]. - The introduction of a commercial insurance innovation drug list provides an alternative route for international pharmaceutical companies to launch innovative drugs in China, with 19 drugs included, such as CAR-T therapies [11][13]. - The commercial insurance pathway may allow companies to introduce higher-priced drugs if they are unable to meet the 60% price reduction typically required for inclusion in the national insurance list [11].

Group 1: Market Volatility and Reactions - The year 2025 has been marked by significant market volatility, heavily influenced by presidential announcements, particularly from Donald Trump, leading to rapid fluctuations in market values [1] - Following the announcement of a 10% universal tariff on all US imports, the S&P 500 dropped over 10%, erasing approximately $5 trillion from global markets [5] - A subsequent 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs resulted in a market rebound, with the S&P 500 surging 9.52% [5][6] Group 2: Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) - Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) saw its stock surge 13.03% after announcing a merger with TAE Technologies, a nuclear fusion company, indicating a pivot from social media to energy [3] - DJT stock closed at $16.80 before the merger announcement, marking a significant rise, and trading volume reached 99.5 million shares, 1,265% above its three-month average [3] - Despite the recent surge, DJT stock remains down 58% over the past year, highlighting ongoing volatility [3] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - Trump announced new drug pricing deals with nine major pharmaceutical companies, including Merck and Pfizer, aimed at lowering Medicaid drug prices [7] - Merck committed to approximately 70% discounts on diabetes treatments, while Pfizer agreed to significant price cuts and a $70 billion investment in U.S. research [8] - These deals included a three-year exemption from Section 232 tariffs for the pharmaceutical companies, creating a win-win scenario for both the industry and consumers [8] Group 4: Nvidia and Geopolitical Dynamics - The U.S. government approved the export of Nvidia's H200 chips to select Chinese customers, with a 25% revenue cut going to the government, reflecting complex geopolitical dynamics [9][10] - Nvidia's stock saw a positive reaction, closing at $176.29 and rising to $183.40 following the announcement, despite ongoing investor caution regarding China exposure [10] Group 5: Economic Overview - Despite stock market gains of 13% to 20% year-to-date, public sentiment regarding the economy remains low, with 70% of Americans describing it as "poor" [11] - Trump's approval rating on economic performance has dropped to between 31-39%, indicating a disconnect between market performance and public perception [11] - The Federal Open Market Committee has been cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy, reflecting concerns about rising prices and unemployment [12]

Core Points - President Trump and nine major pharmaceutical companies have reached agreements to reduce medication costs for cash payers and the Medicaid program, aligning U.S. prices with those of other wealthy nations [1][2] - Drugmakers will implement most-favored-nation pricing for Medicaid drugs, ensuring prices match the lowest available globally [2][4] - A new government website, TrumpRx.gov, will facilitate the purchase of discounted prescription drugs directly from manufacturers [3] Agreement Details - Companies involved include Bristol Myers Squibb, Gilead Sciences, Merck, Genentech, Novartis, Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Sanofi, and GSK [2] - Drugmakers will list their products on TrumpRx.gov, which offers significant discounts for cash payers and mandates that new drugs be priced no higher than in other wealthy countries [3] - In exchange for these commitments, companies will receive three-year tariff exemptions previously imposed on foreign-made drugs [4] Specific Drug Pricing - Merck will sell its diabetes drugs, Januvia and Janumet, at a 70% discount to consumers, while Bristol Myers Squibb will provide its blood thinner, Eliquis, free to Medicaid starting January 1, 2026, and offer selected medicines at approximately 80% off list prices for cash-paying patients [5] Investment Commitments - The pharmaceutical companies have pledged over $150 billion in U.S. research and development and manufacturing investments, with Merck committing more than $70 billion to enhance domestic production and innovation [6] - Five companies have already established agreements with the administration, with three more expected to announce deals soon [6] Program Evaluation - Mark Cuban, a billionaire entrepreneur, rated TrumpRx.gov with a "B" grade, indicating potential but suggesting it needs to compel pharmacy benefit managers to alter their practices for a higher rating [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that several major pharmaceutical companies in the US and Europe have agreed to voluntarily lower drug prices in exchange for tariff exemptions and policy support from the Trump administration, which is reviving the "Most Favored Nation" pricing policy to reduce high prescription drug costs in the US [1][2] - Companies that signed the agreement include Merck (MRK.US), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.US), Amgen (AMGN.US), Gilead Sciences (GILD.US), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.US), Sanofi (SNY.US), Rogers (ROG.US), Boehringer Ingelheim, and Novartis (NVS.US), committing to increase domestic production and investment in the US over the next three years [1] - Bristol-Myers Squibb's commitment to provide its best-selling anticoagulant drug Eliquis for free to Medicaid patients is highlighted as one of the most significant measures in this price reduction initiative [1] Group 2 - Trump stated that out of 17 major pharmaceutical companies he contacted in July, 14 have agreed to significantly lower drug prices, marking a historic victory for patient affordability in the US [2] - Although the full terms of the agreements have not been disclosed, companies have agreed to various measures to lower drug prices, including selling existing drugs to Medicaid patients at "Most Favored Nation" prices and committing to pricing for future new drugs [2] - Gilead Sciences announced that patients will be able to obtain its hepatitis C treatment drug Epclusa at a discounted price, while Sanofi indicated discounts of nearly 70% on certain drugs in the fields of infection, cardiovascular, and diabetes [2] Group 3 - Merck's CEO expressed support for Trump's policy direction of lowering US drug prices while raising prices in overseas markets to end global free-riding [3] - Amgen announced an expansion of its existing direct sales program, including significant discounts on its migraine prevention drug Aimovig and autoimmune treatment drug Amjevita [3] - The average price of prescription drugs in the US is nearly three times that of overseas markets, with brand-name drug prices exceeding four times, highlighting the US market's importance to pharmaceutical companies, especially European firms [3]

Core Insights - Donald Trump and nine major pharmaceutical companies have reached agreements to significantly reduce drug prices for the Medicaid program and cash payers, aiming to align US costs with those in other wealthy nations [1][2] Group 1: Price Reductions and Agreements - Drugmakers will cut prices on most drugs sold to Medicaid, promising "massive savings" on commonly used medicines, although specific figures were not disclosed [2] - The deals include agreements to lower cash-pay prices for select drugs, launch drugs in the US at prices equal to those in other wealthy nations, and increase manufacturing [3] - Merck plans to sell its diabetes drugs at approximately 70% off list prices directly to US consumers, with potential for its experimental cholesterol drug to be offered through direct channels [4] Group 2: Previous and Current Deals - Five companies had previously made agreements with the administration to control prices, while three companies have yet to announce deals [6] - Drugmakers committed to "most-favored-nation" pricing for all new US drug launches across various markets, including Medicare [7] Group 3: Financial Commitments and Investments - Companies pledged to invest over $150 billion in US research and development and manufacturing, with Merck contributing $70 billion of that total [8] - A portion of revenues from foreign sales will be remitted to the US to help offset costs [8] Group 4: Medicaid and Market Impact - Medicaid, which represents about 10% of US drug spending, already benefits from significant price discounts, sometimes exceeding 80% [9] - Pfizer indicated that Medicaid discounts would lead to price and margin compression in the upcoming year [9]

Core Points - US President Donald Trump announced agreements with nine major pharmaceutical companies to reduce drug prices for Medicaid and cash-paying consumers, aiming to align US drug costs with those in other wealthy nations [1][4] - Trump emphasized that the US was previously subsidizing global drug costs and will no longer do so [2] Group 1: Drugmakers Involved - Participating companies include Bristol Myers Squibb, Gilead Sciences, Novartis, Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Sanofi, GSK, Merck, and Roche's US unit Genentech [3] - Additional companies like Regeneron, Johnson & Johnson, and AbbVie are expected to join after the holidays [3] Group 2: Price Reductions and Commitments - Drugmakers will reduce prices on most medicines sold to Medicaid, promising "massive savings" on widely used drugs, although specific figures were not disclosed [4] - The agreements also include commitments to cut cash prices for select medicines and to launch new drugs in the US at prices equal to those in other wealthy countries [5] Group 3: Specific Drug Pricing - Merck plans to sell diabetes drugs Januvia, Janumet, and Janumet XR at discounts of about 70% off list prices [7] - Amgen will price its migraine drug Aimovig and arthritis treatment Amjevita at $299 per month, which is nearly 60% and 80% below current US list prices, respectively [7] Group 4: Investment and Revenue Sharing - Companies pledged to invest over $150 billion in US research, development, and manufacturing, with Merck alone committing $70 billion [8] - A portion of each company's overseas revenue will be remitted to the US to help offset domestic drug costs, and several companies agreed to donate drug ingredients to the US strategic reserve [9] Group 5: Industry Reaction - Five drugmakers, including Pfizer and Eli Lilly, had already struck similar deals with the administration, and AbbVie is expected to announce its agreement soon [10]

Core Insights - Merck reported revenue of $17.28 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +1.24% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.06 billion [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $2.58, compared to $1.57 in the same quarter last year, resulting in a surprise of +9.32% over the consensus estimate of $2.36 [1] Financial Performance - Hospital Acute Care sales for Bridion in the U.S. reached $392 million, exceeding the estimated $379.07 million, marking a +15.6% change year-over-year [4] - Oncology sales for Keytruda internationally were $3.26 billion, slightly below the estimated $3.33 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +11.4% [4] - Sales for Diabetes drug Janumet in the U.S. were $78 million, significantly surpassing the estimated $42.82 million, representing a +420% change year-over-year [4] - Alliance revenue for Lynparza in the U.S. was $184 million, exceeding the estimated $156.52 million, with a +14.3% year-over-year change [4] - Animal health sales totaled $1.62 billion, above the estimated $1.56 billion, reflecting an +8.6% change year-over-year [4] - Cardiovascular sales for Winrevair were $360 million, below the estimated $426.29 million [4] - Oncology sales for Keytruda were $8.14 billion, slightly below the estimated $8.4 billion, with a +9.6% year-over-year change [4] - Sales for Virology drug Lagevrio were $138 million, below the estimated $144.08 million, representing a -64% year-over-year change [4] - Sales for Gardasil vaccines were $1.75 billion, matching the average estimate, but reflecting a -24.2% year-over-year change [4] - Alliance revenue for Lenvima was $258 million, exceeding the estimated $242.44 million, with a +2.8% year-over-year change [4] Stock Performance - Merck's shares have returned -3.9% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]