证 券 研 究 报 告 美联储降息落地，权益与商品分化涨跌互现 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251205-20251212) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.14 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20251205-20251212) 美国市场核心矛盾聚焦美联储货币政策动向，美联储如期宣布年内第三次降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.50%-3.75%。此次 "鹰派降息" 与鲍威尔的平衡表态叠加流动性宽松操作，传递出复杂的政策信号，全球权益与商品有涨有跌。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.19%，本 周上升5BPs，美元指数下行0.59%，当前点位为98.4；2）权益方面，本周创业板、德国、韩国股市上涨较多，而纳斯达克、恒生科技则出现下跌，越南股市跌幅较大；3）商品方 面，本周黄金大幅上涨2.13%，而原油因为伊拉克关键油田的复产，本周大幅下跌 ...

CISA Warns Microsoft Windows Users—Log Out And Shut DownAmerica’s cyber defense agency has plenty of sound advice this holiday season. Much of this focuses on securing your phones and avoiding the fake shopping websites that will see you get stung. But there’s also some timely advice for Windows PC users. https://t.co/WURRas3Wkc(Photo: SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) ...

All Microsoft Windows Users Warned As New Bot Attacks ConfirmedHere's what you need to know: https://t.co/PGqXh65n9P (Photo: SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) https://t.co/CHztL7TAUJ ...

All Microsoft Windows Users Warned As New Bot Attacks Confirmed https://t.co/PGqXh65n9P ...

New Warning As Microsoft Windows Attacks Confirmed — No Fix Available https://t.co/S3IDHvfVaQ ...

Security Updates - Microsoft operating systems users should be prepared for security updates every second Tuesday of the month [1] - A new two-week security deadline for Microsoft Windows updates has been confirmed [1]

Core Point - Hyper® has launched the HyperSpace™ Trackpad Pro on Kickstarter, targeting Microsoft® Windows® users with advanced features [1] Group 1: Product Features - The HyperSpace™ Trackpad Pro is described as the industry's most advanced trackpad [1] - It incorporates advanced piezo haptics and full-force sensing technology [1] - The trackpad offers a deep personalization experience, enhancing user interaction with productivity and creative applications [1]

Core Viewpoint - The analyst has changed the recommendation for Microsoft from Hold to Sell, indicating that the company's shares are currently overvalued and expectations are not aligned with reality [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - Microsoft shares are perceived as overvalued, leading to a downgrade in the investment recommendation [1]. - The analyst's previous recommendation was a Hold, which has now shifted to a Sell based on updated market assessments [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has extensive experience in financial markets, having started trading in 2005 and working as an analyst since 2010 across various brokerage firms in Russia and Ukraine [1]. - The analyst specializes in macroeconomics and general market trends, with a self-taught background in economics [1].

Core Insights - The cyber insurance market can mitigate catastrophic risks by diversifying portfolios across geography and industry, as well as employing effective risk mitigation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. currently dominates the cyber insurance market, accounting for approximately two-thirds of it [3]. - A potential 40% reduction in risk is predicted if portfolios are diversified by geography, industry segment, revenue, and technology [2]. Group 2: Risk Concentration - The concentration of risk in the U.S. market is significant, particularly among operating service companies and major cloud service providers [3]. - In the technology sector, Microsoft Windows holds a 72% share of the desktop operating system market, while Amazon Web Services commands over 30% of the cloud service market, making diversification challenging [5]. Group 3: Risk Mitigation Strategies - Implementing better risk mitigation strategies, such as comprehensive patch management, network segmentation, and robust data backups, could potentially reduce losses by nearly 60% [6]. - Concerns regarding single points of failure, especially in the context of natural disasters, have been highlighted, with Florida homeowners representing only 11% of homeowner premiums despite being at high risk for hurricanes [4]. Group 4: Industry Concerns - The cyber insurance market is facing increased scrutiny, with warnings of potential rate deterioration from companies like Swiss Re [6]. - Discussions have emerged regarding government backstops to support the industry during catastrophic events [7].

Operating System Updates - Microsoft Windows users have 30 days to update their PCs or stop using them [1]