【麦格理发布普拉达研报，下调目标价但维持评级】12月22日，麦格理发表研报。按固定汇率算，预计 普拉达第四季度零售同比增长7%；按列账汇率，零售额、集团销售额分别同比增长0.2%、0.9%。麦格 理认为，市场对其副线MiuMiu增长放缓担忧过度，该品牌过去两年增长约150%。且管理层对集团资产 负债表满意，每年可产生10亿欧元自由现金流，还计划维持50%派息率。考虑汇率逆风因素，麦格理下 调集团2025 - 2027年净利润预测，分别下调1.5%、1.3%、1.3%。基于不变的2025年预估20倍市盈率， 目标价从60港元降至59港元，评级"跑赢大市"。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

对于Prada品牌，大摩对其第四季度零售有机销售增长(OSG)预测略微上调至同比持平，又认为该品牌的 势头仍然相当稳健。对于MiuMiu品牌，大摩将其第四季同比增长预测下调至17%，意味着相较于第三 季度28.6%的增长将持续放缓。但依然预计MiuMiu会保持强劲势头和优异表现，因大摩的渠道调查和与 专家的交流表明，MiuMiu的产品吸引力依然坚挺且强劲。 在集团层面，大摩对其2025年第四季度增长预测下调至4.4%，对今年全年增长预测下调至7.6%。因 此，大摩将集团今明两年每股盈利预测分别下调0.6%及2.7%。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，即将到来的创意浪潮对普拉达(01913)构成风险，随着备受推崇的创意总监纷 纷加盟具备竞争力的品牌，大摩难以看到Prada和MiuMiu如何保持增长动能。即使相信该集团维持良好 管理且股价便宜，但尚未见到集团在未来几个月内会跑赢其他竞争者的原因;故将目标价从53港元微降 至51港元;评级"与大市同步"。 根据其渠道调查，尽管对Prada品牌在第四季度可能出现的持续性基本面改善感到鼓舞，但预计普拉达 集团将是少数在第四季度报告总销售额和零售销售额均出现持续放缓的个人奢侈品集团 ...

Core Viewpoint - Prada's performance in the first half of the year was slightly below expectations, with revenue of €2.74 billion, which is 2% lower than both the bank's and market's forecasts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Prada's retail net sales for the Prada and Miu Miu brands were slightly below expectations, with a decline of 3.6% for Prada and an increase of 40% for Miu Miu [1] - The company's sales increased by 9% year-on-year when calculated at constant exchange rates, aligning closely with Macquarie's predictions [1] - Net profit increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which was 7% lower than Macquarie's forecast due to non-recurring costs associated with the acquisition of Versace [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The demand for travel consumption has been under pressure in the third quarter, with Miu Miu facing the most significant year-on-year comparative base pressure [1] - Management expects overall tourist traffic in Japan and Europe to stabilize year-on-year by the end of August [1] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company aims to prioritize enhancing brand value and believes there is still room for improvement in profitability through operational leverage [1] - Management believes that Miu Miu's penetration rate remains low in many countries, indicating potential for further improvement in product categories and combinations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Prada's performance in the first half of the year was slightly below expectations, with net retail sales for both the Prada and Miu Miu brands not meeting forecasts, leading to a decline in stock price [1] Financial Performance - Prada reported revenue of €2.74 billion, which was 2% lower than both the bank's and market expectations [1] - The retail net sales for Prada decreased by 3.6%, while Miu Miu's sales increased by 40% [1] - Sales growth for Prada, when adjusted for fixed exchange rates, was 9% year-on-year, aligning closely with the bank's predictions [1] Profitability and Costs - The gross margin exceeded expectations due to channel structure optimization, but net profit was below expectations due to costs associated with the acquisition of Versace and weak sales [1] - Net profit increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which was 7% lower than the bank's forecast [1] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The management anticipates that tourism consumption demand will remain under pressure in the third quarter, with Miu Miu facing significant year-on-year comparison challenges [1] - Management expects overall tourist traffic in Japan and Europe to stabilize by the end of August [1] - There is a belief that Miu Miu has low penetration rates in many countries and potential for further improvement in product categories and combinations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Citi has downgraded Prada's net profit forecast for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 6% due to lower sales expectations for Prada and Miu Miu, along with increased advertising and promotional expenses and sales cost forecasts [1] - The valuation basis has been adjusted, with the expected enterprise value to EBIT ratio reduced from 13 times to approximately 9 times, and the target price lowered from HKD 72 to HKD 50, while maintaining an "outperform" rating due to Miu Miu's growing market share and attractive risk-reward ratio [1] - Prada's performance in the first half of the year was slightly below expectations, with revenue recorded at EUR 2.74 billion, which is 2% lower than both Citi's and market expectations, primarily due to slightly disappointing retail net sales for both Prada and Miu Miu brands, which fell by 3.6% and increased by 40% respectively [1] Group 2 - The optimization of channel structure has led to a gross margin that exceeded expectations, but the costs associated with the acquisition of Versace and weak sales have resulted in net profit falling below expectations [1] - The demand for travel consumption has continued to be under pressure in the third quarter to date, and Miu Miu is expected to face the most significant year-on-year comparative base pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi has downgraded Prada's net profit forecast for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 6%, citing lower sales expectations for Prada and Miu Miu, alongside increased advertising and promotional expenses and sales costs [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Prada's revenue for the first half of the year was €2.74 billion, which was 2% lower than both Citi's and market expectations [1] - Retail net sales for the Prada and Miu Miu brands were slightly below expectations, with Prada experiencing a decline of 3.6% and Miu Miu seeing an increase of 40% [1] - The gross margin exceeded expectations due to channel structure optimization, but costs related to the acquisition of Versace and weak sales led to net profit falling short of expectations [1] Group 2: Valuation and Target Price - Citi has adjusted its valuation basis, estimating the enterprise value to EBITDA at approximately 9 times, down from the previous 13 times [1] - The target price for Prada has been reduced from HKD 72 to HKD 50, while maintaining a "outperform" rating due to Miu Miu's growing market share and attractive risk-reward ratio [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The demand for travel consumption has continued to face pressure in the third quarter, with Miu Miu expected to face the most significant year-on-year comparative base pressure [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts pressure on Prada's stock price, lowering the target price from HKD 66 to HKD 62 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating and listing it as an industry favorite [1] - The group performed well in the luxury goods sector during Q2, with continued optimism for the appeal and future growth potential of the Prada and Miu Miu brands [1] - The negative impact of international tourism is expected to peak in the summer, leading to potential downward adjustments in Q3 sales forecasts, with the latest prediction showing a fixed exchange rate growth of 8.3%, down from a previous forecast of 10.4% [1] Group 2 - Prada's Q2 performance fell short of expectations, with a year-on-year sales growth of 6.1% at fixed exchange rates, compared to 12.5% in Q1 and market expectations of 9% [1] - Revenue from both the Prada and Miu Miu brands was slightly below expectations, and although same-store sales grew by approximately 9%, there appeared to be a lack of operating leverage, resulting in adjusted EBIT for the first half being 3.1% lower than anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that Prada's (01913) sales for the first half of the year increased by 9% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, aligning closely with the bank's forecast [1] Financial Performance - Net profit increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which was 7% lower than Macquarie's prediction [1] - Macquarie has revised down its net profit forecasts for Prada for the years 2025 to 2027 by 7.6%, 7.1%, and 6.6% respectively, accounting for the first half performance and brand investments [1] - Target price has been reduced by 8% from HKD 65 to HKD 60, while maintaining an outperform rating [1] Management Insights - Management expects overall tourist traffic in Japan and Europe to stabilize year-on-year by the end of August [1] - The company aims to enhance brand value and believes there is still room for improvement in profitability through operational leverage [1] - Management sees potential for further improvement in product categories and combinations, particularly for MiuMiu, which has low penetration in many countries [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates pressure on Prada's stock price, lowering the target price from HKD 66 to HKD 62 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating, highlighting the brand's strong performance in the luxury goods sector during Q2 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Prada's Q2 sales growth was 6.1% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, which was below expectations compared to Q1's 12.5% and market expectations of 9% [1] - Revenue from both Prada and Miu Miu brands slightly missed expectations, with same-store sales growth around 9% but lacking operational leverage, resulting in adjusted EBIT for the first half being 3.1% lower than anticipated [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The negative impact of international tourism is expected to peak in the summer, leading to potential downward adjustments in Q3 sales forecasts, with the latest prediction showing an 8.3% growth at constant exchange rates, down from a previous forecast of 10.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that Prada's (01913) sales for the first half of the year increased by 9% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, aligning closely with the bank's forecasts [1] Financial Performance - Net profit rose by 0.6% year-on-year, which was 7% lower than Macquarie's predictions [1] - The bank has revised down its net profit forecasts for Prada for the years 2025 to 2027 by 7.6%, 7.1%, and 6.6% respectively, to account for the first half performance and brand investments [1] - Target price has been reduced by 8% from HKD 65 to HKD 60, while maintaining an outperform rating [1] Market Outlook - Management expects that by the end of August, overall tourist traffic in Japan and Europe will stabilize year-on-year [1] - The company aims to enhance brand value and believes there is still room for improvement in profitability through operational leverage [1] - Management also believes that Miu Miu's penetration rate remains low in many countries, indicating potential for further improvement in product categories and combinations [1]