Group 1 - Macquarie has adjusted Prada's net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 1.5%, 1.3%, and 1.3% respectively, considering currency headwinds [1] - The target price for Prada has been reduced by 2% from HKD 60 to HKD 59, while maintaining an outperform rating based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2025 [1] - For the fourth quarter, retail sales are expected to grow by 7% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, while reported retail and group sales are projected to increase by 0.2% and 0.9% respectively [1] Group 2 - Macquarie anticipates resilience in the group during the fourth quarter amid macro uncertainty and market share gains, with a projected 1% year-on-year increase in retail sales for the Prada brand [2] - Miu Miu is expected to achieve a robust 20% year-on-year growth in retail sales for the fourth quarter, with plans to expand retail space by 10% to 15% next year, which may drive further growth [2] - The group expects Versace to negatively impact the company's EBITDA by EUR 50 million to EUR 100 million annually over the next two years, but Macquarie believes this outlook may be conservative and has potential for upside [2]

Group 1 - Macquarie has adjusted Prada's net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 1.5%, 1.3%, and 1.3% respectively, considering currency headwinds [1] - The target price for Prada has been reduced by 2% from HKD 60 to HKD 59, while maintaining an outperform rating based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2025 [1] - For the fourth quarter, retail sales are expected to grow by 7% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, while reported retail and group sales are projected to increase by 0.2% and 0.9% respectively [1] Group 2 - The group is expected to show resilience in the fourth quarter amid macro uncertainty and market share gains, with a projected 1% year-on-year increase in retail sales for the Prada brand [2] - Miu Miu is anticipated to achieve a robust 20% year-on-year growth in retail sales for the fourth quarter, with plans to expand retail space by 10% to 15% next year, which may drive further growth [2] - Macquarie believes the forecasted EBIT impact of EUR 50 million to 100 million from Versace over the next two years is conservative and has potential for upside [2]

Core Viewpoint - Prada's stock has seen a decline of over 5%, currently trading at 44.84 HKD, with a trading volume of 13.08 million HKD, as analysts express concerns about the brand's ability to maintain growth amidst a new wave of creativity in the luxury fashion sector [1] Group 1: Brand Performance - Morgan Stanley reports that while the Prada brand remains robust, the growth rate of the Miu Miu brand is expected to slow significantly, with a projected year-on-year growth of only 17% in Q4, down from 29% in Q3 and 49% in the first half of the year [1] - Citigroup forecasts that Prada's sales for Q4 FY2025 will see a year-on-year increase of 6% at constant exchange rates, but a reported decline of 1% to 1.59 billion EUR [1] - Retail sales by brand are expected to remain flat for Prada (with a 1% decline in Q3) and a 20% year-on-year growth for Miu Miu (down from 29% growth in Q3) [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The EBIT for the second half of the year is projected to decline by 3% to 685 million EUR, with the EBIT margin expected to narrow by 100 basis points to 23.4% year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - Prada's stock dropped over 5% in early trading, currently down 4.8% at HKD 44.84 with a trading volume of HKD 13.08 million [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that while the Prada brand remains strong, the growth rate of the Miu Miu brand is expected to slow significantly, with a projected year-on-year growth of only 17% in Q4, compared to 29% in Q3 and 49% in the first half of the year [1] - Citigroup forecasts that Prada's sales for Q4 FY2025 will see a year-on-year increase of 6% at constant exchange rates, but a reported decline of 1% to EUR 1.59 billion; retail sales by brand are expected to remain flat for Prada (down 1% in Q3) and a 20% increase for Miu Miu (compared to 29% growth in Q3) [1] Group 2 - The EBIT for the second half is expected to decline by 3% to EUR 685 million, with the EBIT margin narrowing by 100 basis points year-on-year to 23.4% [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that the upcoming creative wave poses risks to Prada (01913) as renowned creative directors join competitive brands, making it difficult to see how Prada and Miu Miu can maintain growth momentum [1] - Despite believing in the group's good management and cheap stock price, Morgan Stanley does not foresee reasons for the group to outperform competitors in the coming months, thus lowering the target price from HKD 53 to HKD 51 and maintaining a "market perform" rating [1] - The firm anticipates that Prada will be one of the few personal luxury goods groups to report a continued slowdown in total sales and retail sales in Q4, with Miu Miu's growth rate expected to slow significantly, projecting a Q4 year-on-year growth of only 17%, down from 29% in Q3 and 49% in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - For the Prada brand, Morgan Stanley slightly raised its Q4 organic sales growth (OSG) forecast to flat year-on-year, indicating that the brand's momentum remains robust [2] - For the Miu Miu brand, Morgan Stanley lowered its Q4 year-on-year growth forecast to 17%, indicating a continued slowdown compared to the 28.6% growth in Q3, although Miu Miu is still expected to maintain strong momentum and performance [2] - At the group level, Morgan Stanley has reduced its growth forecast for Q4 2025 to 4.4% and for the entire year to 7.6%, leading to a downward revision of the group's earnings per share forecasts by 0.6% and 2.7% for the next two years, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that despite optimism regarding Prada's brand fundamentals in Q4, the Prada Group is expected to be one of the few personal luxury goods groups to report a continued slowdown in total and retail sales in Q4 [1] Group Performance - The growth rate of the subsidiary brand Miu Miu is anticipated to slow significantly, with a projected year-on-year growth of only 17% in Q4, compared to 29% in Q3 and 49% in the first half of the year [1] Competitive Risks - The upcoming creative wave poses risks to the group, as renowned creative directors are joining competitive brands, making it difficult for Prada and Miu Miu to maintain growth momentum [1] Management and Valuation - Although the group is believed to be well-managed and its stock is considered cheap, there is no clear reason to expect it to outperform competitors in the coming months [1] - Morgan Stanley has slightly reduced its target price from HKD 53 to HKD 51, maintaining a "market perform" rating [1]

Group 1 - Citi's report indicates no significant changes to Prada's revenue, EBIT, and earnings per share forecasts for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] - The target price for Prada has been lowered from HKD 53.8 to HKD 52, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] - For Q4 of fiscal year 2025, sales are expected to grow by 6% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, but report a decline of 1% to EUR 1.59 billion [1] Group 2 - Retail sales by brand are projected to remain flat for Prada (down 1% in Q3) and increase by 20% for Miu Miu (up 29% in Q3) [1] - EBIT for the second half of the year is expected to decrease by 3% to EUR 685 million, with EBIT margin narrowing by 100 basis points to 23.4% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi has released a report indicating no significant changes to its revenue, EBIT, and earnings per share forecasts for Prada for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027, while lowering the target price from HKD 53.8 to HKD 52 and maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Revenue Forecast - For Q4 of fiscal year 2025, sales are expected to grow by 6% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, but report a decline of 1% to EUR 1.59 billion [1] - Retail sales by brand are projected to remain flat for Prada (down 1% in Q3) and increase by 20% for Miu Miu (up 29% in Q3) [1] EBIT and Profit Margin - EBIT for the second half of the year is anticipated to decrease by 3% to EUR 685 million [1] - EBIT margin is expected to narrow by 100 basis points year-on-year to 23.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi has lowered the target price for Prada from HKD 53.8 to HKD 52, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Sales Forecast - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Prada's sales are expected to grow by 6% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, but report a decline of 1% to EUR 1.59 billion [1] - Retail sales by brand are projected to remain flat for Prada year-on-year (down 1% in Q3), while Miu Miu is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year (compared to 29% growth in Q3) [1] EBIT and Profit Margin - EBIT for the second half is anticipated to decline by 3% year-on-year to EUR 685 million [1] - EBIT margin is expected to narrow by 100 basis points year-on-year to 23.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Prada Group has completed the acquisition of Versace for approximately €1.3 billion (around $1.5 billion), which is over 30% less than the €1.8 billion paid by Capri Holdings in 2018 for the brand. This acquisition is seen as a strategic move for Prada to strengthen its position against major competitors like LVMH and Kering [1]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Versace marks the unification of two iconic Milanese fashion brands under the Prada Group [1]. - Versace has struggled with performance since its acquisition by Capri Holdings, with a 25% decline in revenue over the past two years and recent fiscal year revenues falling below those of 2019 [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The acquisition is viewed as a critical step for Prada to enhance its brand portfolio and mitigate risks associated with relying on a single brand [1]. - UBS analysts noted the aesthetic differentiation between Prada and Versace, which allows the group to target a broader consumer base without internal competition [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Prada reported a net revenue of €4.07 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth at constant exchange rates, marking 19 consecutive quarters of growth [2]. - Key markets such as the Middle East and Americas saw revenue increases of 21% and 15%, respectively, while the Asia-Pacific region maintained a 10% growth [2]. Group 4: Management and Integration - Melania Grippo from BNP Paribas highlighted the historical management issues at Versace, indicating that effective operational integration will be crucial for Prada [3]. - Lorenzo Bertelli, the heir apparent of Prada, will take on the role of Executive Chairman at Versace, focusing on a smooth transition and integration rather than immediate personnel changes [3]. Group 5: Creative Direction - Dario Vitale, former creative director of Miu Miu, has been appointed as the creative director of Versace, with his previous experience seen as vital for revitalizing the brand [3].