奢侈品珠宝：时光淬炼，奢华典藏 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 27 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | | [Table_ReportType] 行业深度研究 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 奢侈品珠宝：时光淬炼，奢华典藏 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 27 日 本期内容提要： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http：//www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_S [➢Table_Summary 奢侈品行业增长 ummary] ] 放缓，但结构性韧性突出。贝恩数据显示，2 ...

阿拉伯贸易网11月17日消息，Visa《全球经济洞察报告2025》显示，尽管全球奢侈品消费放缓，迪 拜市场逆势增长，每季度约九分之一居民购买高端商品，高于纽约、伦敦、巴黎等城市。高收入家庭比 例高（37%年收入超15万美元）和旅游需求增长，是市场韧性关键。奢侈品消费已从超高净值人群扩散 至中高收入群体。 （原标题：迪拜豪华品市场增长强劲） ...

Core Insights - Tapestry views China as a key market, with plans to open 100 new stores in the next two to three years, building on its existing 400+ locations [2] - The company has participated in the China International Import Expo for seven consecutive years, highlighting its commitment to the Chinese market [2] - Tapestry's brands, including Coach and Kate Spade, are adapting to the preferences of Chinese consumers, particularly the younger generation, who prioritize product quality and emotional value over social status [3] Market Environment - The luxury goods sector is a significant part of the Chinese consumer market, and Tapestry is keen to engage with local policies and industry leaders at the Import Expo [2] - The emergence of local brands in China is seen as a positive development, fostering competition that can enhance overall consumption and drive brand innovation [3] - Tapestry believes that by effectively reaching consumers through design and store experiences, it can maintain a competitive edge in the market [3]

Core Insights - Luxury brands are experiencing significant growth during this year's Double 11 shopping festival, with overall sales increasing by double digits year-on-year on Tmall [1] - The shift in luxury consumption is towards lifestyle and quality enhancement, with a notable rise in demand for winter sports gear and high-end home goods [3][5] Group 1: Sales Performance - Tmall's first cycle data shows that luxury brands like Balenciaga, Burberry, and Moncler achieved high double-digit growth in sales [1] - The luxury segment for winter sports equipment saw over 80% year-on-year growth since October, driven by brands like Balenciaga and Zegna [3] - High-end home goods are emerging as a new growth area, with brands like Wedgwood and HAY also reporting double-digit sales increases [3] Group 2: Consumer Trends - Millennials and Gen Z are becoming the main consumers of luxury goods, seeking brands that resonate with their personal aesthetics rather than just logos [5] - Coach experienced a three-digit percentage increase in sales on Tmall's Double 11 opening day, attributed to its unique product lines appealing to younger consumers [5] - The introduction of new products is a key driver for growth, with over 200 luxury brands launching more than 10,000 exclusive items during this year's event [5]

Core Insights - Ralph Lauren's new product, a "cowhide leather firewood tote" priced at 5,390 yuan, has sparked widespread discussion due to its unique design and practical use [3] - The product is part of the limited edition fall collection for 2025, launched on September 3, and is made from coarse cowhide leather sourced from Ralph Lauren's ranch in the U.S. [3] Financial Performance - Ralph Lauren reported a 14% year-over-year increase in net revenue for Q1 of fiscal year 2026, reaching over $1.7 billion [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 30.7% to $220 million [6] - The company opened 24 new self-operated and partnership stores during the first quarter [7] Regional Growth - Revenue growth was led by Asia and Europe, both achieving double-digit increases, with Asia's total revenue growing by 21% to $474 million [7] - North America saw an 8% growth in revenue [7] - In China, Ralph Lauren experienced over 30% year-over-year growth in the first quarter, highlighted by the first fashion show in Shanghai and a flagship store opening on October 15 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of gold prices in China and the consumer behavior surrounding "Lao Pu" gold, highlighting the emotional and psychological factors driving demand despite fluctuations in gold prices [3][12][34]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of "Lao Pu" gold has become a cultural trend, with consumers, particularly women, eagerly queuing for purchases during price adjustments, indicating a strong belief in the brand and its value [4][19]. - The pricing strategy of "Lao Pu" gold involves infrequent price adjustments, which creates a perception of value and urgency among consumers, leading to increased sales even when gold prices fluctuate [12][13][14]. - A significant portion of consumers (approximately 80%) express confidence in the value retention of "Lao Pu" gold, viewing it as a form of emotional investment rather than a mere commodity [16][24]. Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The gold jewelry market, particularly for "Lao Pu" gold, is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, indicating strong future demand [30]. - The article suggests that even if gold prices decline, "Lao Pu" gold may maintain its pricing strategy similar to luxury goods, relying on brand perception and consumer loyalty to sustain value [31][33]. - The shift towards lighter, more affordable gold products reflects changing consumer preferences, with a growing segment of the market focusing on items priced between 10,000 to 50,000 yuan [24][22].

Core Insights - Hermes reported a 9.6% increase in third-quarter sales, indicating a slight improvement in the key market of China, outperforming its peers as affluent consumers spent on luxury items priced at $10,000 and above [1] Company Performance - The sales growth of 9.6% in the third quarter highlights Hermes' strong positioning in the luxury market, particularly in China, where wealthy shoppers are increasingly purchasing high-end products [1] Market Trends - The performance of Hermes suggests a positive trend in luxury spending among affluent consumers, especially in the Chinese market, which is crucial for luxury brands [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for Hang Lung Properties from HKD 9 to HKD 10.5 due to improved fundamentals and a narrowing NAV discount from 60% to 50, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The mainland retail business of the group is showing signs of recovery, with tenant sales in Shanghai's Plaza 66 and Hang Lung Plaza increasing by 31% and 8% year-on-year in Q3, compared to 10% growth and an 8% decline in the first half [1] - During the National Day Golden Week, overall tenant sales in mainland malls grew by 15% year-on-year in the first four days, with Wuhan Hang Lung Plaza and Shanghai Plaza 66 recording year-on-year increases of over 70% and 50%, respectively [1] Group 2: Key Catalysts - The luxury goods group LVMH indicated an improvement in mainland operations in Q3, alongside the establishment of a gold shop at Plaza 66 and the opening of Hang Lung Plaza in Hangzhou, which are seen as key catalysts [1] - Hang Lung Plaza in Hangzhou has already pre-leased 83% of its retail space and 27% of its office space, expected to contribute significantly by 2027 [1]

Group 1 - Bernard Arnault, CEO of LVMH, was spotted in Shanghai, marking his third consecutive year visiting China [1] - LVMH's flagship store, the "Louis" giant ship, has become a new landmark in Shanghai, attracting global tourists [1] - In 2023, Arnault was recognized as the world's richest person with a net worth of $211 billion (approximately 14,500 billion RMB) according to Forbes [1] Group 2 - During his visit, Arnault toured the Laopai Gold store in Shanghai, showing interest in various gold items and commenting on their craftsmanship [1] - This visit follows a previous trip by another LVMH executive to Laopai Gold in Beijing earlier in June [1]

Core Viewpoint - Laopu Gold is gaining attention as a prominent gold enterprise in China, reflecting consumer desires for luxury jewelry that signifies status while also serving as an investment vehicle [1][4]. Group 1: Market Positioning - Laopu Gold strategically places its stores next to high-end luxury brands like Hermes and Cartier, with proximity ratios to brands such as Cartier, Bvlgari, Tiffany, and Van Cleef & Arpels being 55%, 55%, 62%, and 52% respectively [1]. - Unlike traditional gold jewelry companies that follow a pricing model based on gold prices plus labor costs, Laopu Gold employs a fixed pricing strategy akin to luxury goods, increasing prices by 5% to 10% annually [4]. Group 2: Customer Demographics - As of June 2025, Laopu Gold has a loyal customer base of 480,000 members, primarily consisting of women aged 25-45 and men aged 30-55, mostly residing in first-tier and new first-tier cities [5][8]. - The company has seen its loyal membership grow rapidly, doubling in size over the past two years, with member counts increasing from 162,000 in June 2023 to 480,000 by June 2025 [8]. Group 3: Membership and Revenue Contribution - Laopu Gold offers a tiered membership system with four levels based on cumulative spending, providing various benefits such as lifetime free cleaning and maintenance services [10]. - Approximately 10% to 15% of black card members contribute around 70% of the company's revenue, indicating a concentrated revenue model [11]. Group 4: Sales Channels and Pricing - The majority of Laopu Gold's revenue, 86.9%, comes from offline sales, with the average transaction value at its Beijing SKP store increasing from 25,000 yuan to over 40,000 yuan within a year [12]. - Despite offering a wide range of products, the majority of revenue is generated from items priced between 10,000 yuan and 50,000 yuan, with over 1,800 SPUs and 2,700 SKUs available [12]. Group 5: Future Growth and Market Strategy - Laopu Gold aims to expand its store count to 60-70 by 2028, with 45-50 stores expected in China, indicating a strategic focus on high-end retail locations [11]. - The company is actively aligning itself with luxury brands, although its pricing power will depend on the actual spending capacity of its high-net-worth customers [15].