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美光晶圆厂延期--存储产业大周期持续升温
傅里叶的猫· 2025-11-11 04:17
Core Viewpoint - The memory industry is experiencing a super cycle driven by supply-demand imbalances, particularly in DRAM and NAND markets, with significant price increases expected through 2026 [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Samsung anticipates a supply-demand imbalance in the DRAM and NAND markets by 2026, with demand exceeding supply, and is focusing on optimizing existing capacity [2]. - Micron's HBM supply is sold out for 2026, but the New York super factory's production is delayed by 2-3 years, limiting short-term DRAM supply expansion [2]. - The entire storage industry is currently at historical low inventory levels, with module manufacturers holding only 2 months of inventory, significantly below the normal 4-month cycle [4]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The explosive growth of AI servers is a major demand driver, with high-end AI servers requiring 5-10 times the storage capacity of regular servers, leading to increased demand for HBM, enterprise DRAM, and SSDs [4][5]. - The shift from HDD to SSD in data storage is accelerating due to the AI inference era, with SSDs expected to increase their share in servers from 55% to 70% [5]. Group 3: Price Trends - Price increases for various memory products are projected, with significant price hikes expected in Q4 2025 across all categories, particularly for high-capacity products [5]. - Specific projected price increases include: - DRAM - mainstream DDR5: 25%-30% - DRAM - server DRAM: 28%-33% - DRAM - 96GB server RDIMM: 70% - NAND - eSSD: 25%-30% - NAND - 3D NAND wafers (TLC/QLC): 65%-70% [5]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Module manufacturers are adopting conservative inventory strategies and proactive inventory management to navigate the current pricing environment [3][4]. - Major cloud service providers are seeking long-term agreements with suppliers to secure capacity amid rising prices [6].