抢抓AI服务器浪潮，德明利（001309）上半年交出一份亮眼成绩单。 8月22日，德明利(001309.SZ)发布半年报，上半年公司实现营业收入41.09亿元，同比大增88.83%，净利 润亏损1.18亿元，二季度公司归母净利润亏损0.49亿元，环比一季度减亏29.28%，环比大幅提升3.81个 百分点，均呈现快速改善趋势。 公司基于研发技术创新以及对业务场景的深刻理解，形成定制化存储解决方案与服务体系，成功从单一 的产品供应向"硬件+技术+供应链"一体化服务升级。 具体包括云服务厂商、手机厂商、AIoT终端厂商多个知名客户，以及学习平板、会议平板、电力、安 全监控等细分市场领域。 报告期内，行业客户需求增长带动德明利的嵌入式存储及企业级存储业务快速放量，已成为公司业务的 重要增长极。公司新进入多家知名企业供应链体系，在头部互联网厂商、一线手机客户等领域均有所突 破，为后续相关业务的持续快速发展奠定了坚实的基础。 上半年，德明利实现固态硬盘业务收入 15.34亿元，同比增长64.62%，实现嵌入式存储业务收入17亿 元，同比增长290.10%。 德明利产品线涵盖固态硬盘类、嵌入式存储类、内存条类及移动存储类四 ...

2025 年 08 月 25 日 德明利 (001309) ——25Q2 季度营收 29 亿元创新高，同环比均翻倍 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 99.61 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 163.58/61.99 | | 市净率 | 9.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.30 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 15,915 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,883.56/12,441.07 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 05-26 06-26 07-26 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 德明利 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangbolong's stock price has shown an upward trend, indicating positive market sentiment and potential growth in the storage product sector [1] Company Overview - Jiangbolong's latest stock price is 91.62 yuan, reflecting a 1.51% increase from the previous trading day [1] - The company specializes in the research, design, and sales of storage products, including solid-state drives (SSDs) and memory modules, which are widely used in consumer electronics, data centers, and servers [1] Market Performance - The opening price on the trading day was 89.50 yuan, with a high of 92.56 yuan and a low of 88.87 yuan [1] - The trading volume reached 73,900 hands, with a total transaction value of 673 million yuan [1] Industry Insights - According to CFM flash memory market data, SSD and memory module prices in the server and PC sectors are expected to maintain upward momentum in the third quarter [1] Capital Flow - On August 15, the net outflow of main funds was 15.4974 million yuan, while the net inflow over the past five days was 17.5911 million yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangbolong (301308) disclosed a correction announcement for its 2024 annual report, citing the high workload during the reporting period as the reason for not identifying minor errors in a timely manner [1][3] Group 1: Correction Details - The announcement includes five corrections, two of which pertain to unit description errors, while three involve the "weighted average return on equity" and its corresponding "year-on-year growth rate" [2][3] - Before correction, the weighted average return on equity was reported at 31.27% with a year-on-year growth of 44.28%. After correction, it was adjusted to 7.92% with a year-on-year growth of 20.93% [3] - Cash flow data was also corrected; initially, the net cash flow from investment activities was reported to have decreased by 33.67%, and the net increase in cash and cash equivalents was reported to have decreased by 73.70%. After correction, both figures showed an increase of 33.67% and 73.70%, respectively [3] Group 2: Company Overview and Financial Performance - Jiangbolong is a semiconductor storage brand with product lines including embedded storage, solid-state drives, mobile storage, and memory modules, and it owns the brands FORESEE and Lexar [4] - The company is planning a secondary listing in Hong Kong, with its application materials accepted by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in April 2024 [4] - For the year 2024, Jiangbolong reported a revenue of 17.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.48%, and a net profit of nearly 500 million yuan, reflecting a growth of over 160%. However, the net profit included 340 million yuan from non-operational financial activities, leading to a non-recurring net profit of only 167 million yuan, indicating ongoing pressure [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][28][31] Core Views - The company is experiencing a short-term revenue decline due to storage price impacts, with a revenue of 1Q25 at 1.543 billion yuan, down 10.62% YoY and 7.58% QoQ. However, a gradual recovery in storage prices is expected in 2Q25, which may lead to performance improvement [1][20][28] - Embedded storage revenue for 2024 reached 4.241 billion yuan, a significant increase of 151.68% YoY, with products entering major client supply chains. AI-related products are also seeing rapid revenue growth, particularly in AI glasses, which are expected to grow over 500% YoY in 2025 [2][28] - The company is making progress in enterprise-level and automotive-grade storage, with advanced wafer-level packaging expected to drive long-term growth. The company has passed various tests and is set to meet advanced storage packaging demands [3][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was 1.543 billion yuan, with a net profit of -216 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline in profitability due to increased R&D expenses and inventory write-downs [1][28] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.78 billion, 2.00 billion, and 3.82 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 156, 139, and 73 [3][28] Revenue Breakdown - Embedded storage is projected to generate revenues of 5.439 billion, 6.459 billion, and 7.363 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, driven by a recovery in storage prices and increased shipments [28] - PC storage revenue is expected to be 2.206 billion, 2.283 billion, and 2.363 billion yuan for the same period, benefiting from a gradual market recovery [25][28] - Automotive-grade storage is anticipated to grow to 1.55 billion, 2.94 billion, and 4.18 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, as customer adoption increases [26][28] Market Trends - The global storage market is experiencing a cyclical downturn, with NAND Flash prices expected to stabilize in 2Q25 after a decline in 1Q25. The company anticipates a recovery in prices due to inventory adjustments and increased demand from OEMs [20][24][28] - The company is well-positioned in the supply chains of major clients across various sectors, including AI, automotive, and consumer electronics, which supports its growth outlook [2][3][28]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot LPDDR4X products continues to rise due to the ongoing impact of manufacturers halting production of certain DDR4 and reducing LPDDR4X output, leading to a tightening supply and subsequent price increases in the market [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Recent weeks have seen a continuous upward trend in the prices of spot DDR4 chips and LPDDR4X products, driven by tight supply conditions and rising prices [1] - The price increase effect has gradually spread to finished products, with DDR4 SODIMM prices rising in the industry market last week [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The channel market has also experienced price increases for certain memory modules due to supply constraints [1] - However, some channel customers have reported sales below expectations, resulting in insufficient demand for procurement [1] - The demand for large-capacity SSDs in the industry remains relatively weak, leading to slight downward adjustments in prices for some channels and industry SSDs this week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on its core business of storage chips, increasing R&D investment to enhance technological autonomy, and expanding its product development and business operations in emerging fields such as AI servers and data centers [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 168.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 351 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1302.30% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.252 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.41%, but a net loss of 69.09 million yuan [1]. Market Conditions and Strategy - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on profitability due to industry cycle fluctuations, structural adjustments in market demand, and temporary cost pressures, but expects improvement as industry conditions recover [1]. - Since March, the storage chip market has shown signs of supply-demand improvement, leading to a stabilization and recovery in prices [2]. R&D and Product Development - The company has significantly increased R&D investment in 2024, particularly in high-performance areas, and is focused on breakthroughs in core technologies related to storage chips [2]. - The company is actively developing products in enterprise-level storage, industrial-grade storage, embedded storage, and high-performance main control chips to meet the diverse needs of emerging technologies like AI and cloud computing [2][3]. Business Expansion - The enterprise-level storage business is progressing well, having entered the supply chains of major internet and server manufacturers, with some products successfully validated and shipped in bulk [3]. - The company is expanding its product matrix to include solid-state drives, embedded storage, memory bars, and mobile storage, while also targeting new application scenarios such as data centers, industrial control, consumer electronics, and smart wearables [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company is experiencing accelerated growth in enterprise-level storage, with a significant increase in revenue from this segment [3] - The company has successfully integrated its overseas business, enhancing the influence of the Lexar brand globally [3] - Continuous breakthroughs in self-developed chips are opening up the mid-to-high-end storage application market [4] - The company is expected to see a moderate recovery in storage prices in 2025, following a decline in 2024 [2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.256 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 4.41% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.45% [2] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was -202 million yuan, a year-over-year decline of 155.64% but a quarter-over-quarter improvement of 38.82% [2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 10.35%, down 14.04 percentage points year-over-year and down 0.81 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2] - The company's enterprise-level storage revenue reached 922 million yuan in 2024, a substantial year-over-year increase of 666.30% [3] - The global sales revenue of the Lexar brand in 2024 was 3.525 billion yuan, covering over 60 countries and regions, with a year-over-year growth of nearly 21% in Q1 2025 [3] Earnings Forecast and Financial Indicators - The projected net profit for 2025 is 534 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 60.7 [5] - Revenue is expected to grow from 10.125 billion yuan in 2023 to 21.889 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 25.3% [5] - The company's EBIT margin is projected to be 4.1% in 2025, with a net asset return (ROE) of 7.7% [5]

Group 1: Product Differentiation and Development - The distinction between enterprise-level storage products and consumer-level products lies in customized development, performance orientation, and project-based collaboration, with enterprise products requiring higher performance metrics and deeper service engagement [2] - The company has built a team of over 100 personnel focused on enterprise-level product development by the end of 2024, emphasizing customer needs and high-performance product delivery [4] - A high-standard testing line for enterprise products has been established to ensure reliability and stable supply, addressing core customer demands [3] Group 2: Capacity and Supply Chain Management - The company is enhancing enterprise storage capacity by collaborating with external manufacturers and optimizing its own production lines [4] - A dynamic supply chain management system has been developed, leveraging strategic partnerships with storage manufacturers to ensure material supply stability and increase domestic production rates [4] Group 3: Financial Performance and Growth - In Q1 2025, the company experienced revenue growth driven by an expanded product matrix and successful key business developments, particularly in solid-state drives and embedded memory sales [5] - R&D investment reached CNY 203 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 88.14%, with Q1 2025 R&D spending at CNY 58.76 million, up 97.77% year-on-year [8] Group 4: Market Trends and Pricing - Storage prices stabilized in Q1 2025 after adjustments in production capacity by manufacturers, with expectations of a moderate recovery throughout the year [6] - Emerging demands from AI and automotive electronics are identified as key growth drivers, with a trend towards high-performance and high-capacity storage solutions [6] Group 5: Inventory Strategy - The company maintains a neutral inventory strategy, adjusting procurement plans based on market feedback and enhancing inventory turnover to support new business developments [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][33]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue growth of 54.41% year-on-year in Q1 2025, despite a decline in storage prices, indicating successful channel and customer expansion [1][33]. - The product structure is continuously optimized, with significant growth in SSD and embedded storage segments, driven by increasing demand from cloud service providers and AI applications [2][30]. - The company is progressing well with self-developed main control chips, which are expected to contribute to future growth alongside existing product lines [3][33]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.252 billion yuan, a 54.41% increase year-on-year and a 6.5% increase quarter-on-quarter. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -75 million yuan, a decrease of 138.9% year-on-year [1][33]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 5.8%, showing a year-on-year decline of 31.4 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 5.5 percentage points [1][33]. Product Lines and Market Demand - The company has established four main product lines: mobile storage, solid-state drives (SSD), embedded storage, and memory modules. In 2024, SSD revenue reached 2.3 billion yuan, a 235.46% increase, while embedded storage revenue was 843 million yuan, a 1730.60% increase [2][30]. - The demand for enterprise-level SSDs is expected to grow significantly due to increased capital expenditure from domestic cloud service providers, with the company successfully entering their supply chains [2][30]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 6.772 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 361 million yuan. The expected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 50, 42, and 28, respectively [4][33]. - The revenue growth rates for the next few years are projected at 41.9% for 2025, 22.8% for 2026, and 16.1% for 2027 [4][34]. Market Trends - The storage market is expected to see a mild recovery in prices in 2025 after a decline in 2024, driven by inventory adjustments and increased demand from OEMs [23][30]. - The global enterprise storage market is projected to grow from 26.2 billion USD in 2024 to 32.4 billion USD by 2028, indicating a strong demand for high-performance storage solutions [30][26].