Key Takeaways SE's Garena bookings jumped 51.4% in Q1 2025, fueled by Free Fire's global momentum and new game launches. TTWO delayed GTA VI to fiscal 2027, cutting near-term growth hopes and keeping 2026 bookings growth at 5%. SE benefits from a diversified model with growth in Shopee e-commerce and Monee's fintech push in Brazil.Sea Limited (SE) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) are well-known video game providers. While SE’s Garena Free Fire is hugely popular, TTWO rides on franchises including Grand The ...

Core Viewpoint - Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) has seen a 32% increase year to date, but this rally is viewed with caution due to fundamental weaknesses and concerning financial metrics indicating the stock may be overvalued and due for a correction [1][10]. Financial Performance - Take-Two reported a GAAP net loss of $4.48 billion for fiscal 2025, worsening from a $3.74 billion loss the previous year, primarily due to goodwill impairment charges of $3.55 billion [2]. - The company's operational cash flow turned negative at $45.2 million for fiscal 2025, highlighting fundamental weaknesses despite the stock's recent surge [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was only $199.1 million, indicating a disconnect between financial performance and stock price appreciation [4]. Revenue and Growth Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 revenues is $5.99 billion, reflecting a 6.1% year-over-year growth, with earnings expected to rise 42.93% to $2.93 per share [5]. - The company's fiscal 2026 guidance for net bookings is $5.9-$6 billion, representing only 5% growth, which does not justify the recent stock surge [7]. Dependence on Key Releases - Take-Two's business model is heavily reliant on a few blockbuster releases, with the anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI release delayed to May 26, 2026, impacting near-term revenue expectations [6][7]. - The concentration risk is evident as a small number of franchises, such as NBA 2K and Grand Theft Auto, generate the majority of income, limiting diversification [8]. Growth Trajectory and Margin Pressures - The company faces a declining growth trajectory, with guidance indicating flat recurrent consumer spending in fiscal 2026, raising concerns for its business model [9]. - Operating expenses are projected to increase by 3% year-over-year, primarily due to higher marketing costs, which, combined with modest revenue growth, suggests margin compression [12]. - Capital expenditures are planned at approximately $140 million for fiscal 2026, which may not yield immediate returns, adding pressure to near-term financial performance [13]. Competitive Landscape - Take-Two trades at a premium P/E ratio of around 55.11, significantly above the industry average of 34.38, indicating a stretched valuation [14]. - The gaming industry is increasingly competitive, with major players like Microsoft and Sony capturing market share, while Take-Two struggles to match operational metrics of competitors like Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard [22].

TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC. 2 COMPANY OVERVIEW TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE Leading multi-platform developer, publisher and marketer of interactive entertainment, the strongest growth segment of the entertainment industry | | Fit | 2 | 定 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CONSOLE | X | X | | | PC | X | × | | | MOBILE | X | X | X | (NASDAQ: TTWO) MAY 2025 CAUTIONARY NOTE: FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS The statements contained herein, which are not historical facts, including statements relating ...

Core Insights - The gaming industry is rapidly evolving with two dominant approaches: traditional gaming represented by Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) and a platform-based model exemplified by Roblox (RBLX) [1][2] Company Analysis: Roblox (RBLX) - Roblox reported a 29% year-over-year revenue growth to $1.035 billion in Q1 2025, significantly outperforming industry averages [3] - Bookings increased by 31% to $1.207 billion, and daily active users rose by 26% to 97.8 million, indicating strong user acquisition and retention [3] - Engagement metrics showed a 30% increase in hours engaged, totaling 21.7 billion hours, with users aged 13 and older now making up 62% of total DAUs and growing at 36% year-over-year [4] - International markets are showing significant growth potential, with DAU growth of 48% in Japan and 77% in India [5] - Operating cash flow surged 86% to $443.9 million, and free cash flow more than doubled to $426.5 million, highlighting strong financial performance [6] Company Analysis: Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) - Take-Two reported net bookings of $1.58 billion in Q4 2025, driven by strong performance from NBA 2K25 and a 14% increase in recurrent consumer spending [7] - The anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto VI is a significant future growth catalyst, although its delay to May 2026 pushes potential revenue further out [8] - Fiscal 2025 net bookings grew only 6% to $5.65 billion, with guidance for fiscal 2026 suggesting continued modest growth of 5% [10] - The company recorded goodwill impairment charges of $3.55 billion, raising concerns about previous acquisitions and capital allocation decisions [10] - Take-Two's business model relies heavily on blockbuster releases, creating volatility and execution risk, and it lacks the diversified creator economy that supports sustainable growth [11] Valuation and Performance Comparison - Roblox's shares have increased by 67.9% year-to-date, outperforming Take-Two's 25.1% gain [13] - Roblox's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 11.24x, while Take-Two's is 5.99x, reflecting different growth profiles and investor expectations [17] - Roblox's superior revenue growth and expanding margins justify its higher valuation, contrasting with Take-Two's modest growth outlook and reliance on infrequent releases [20] Conclusion - Roblox is positioned as the superior investment choice due to stronger growth fundamentals, better financial performance, and more compelling long-term prospects [21] - The platform's growth metrics and creator economy provide multiple growth vectors, while Take-Two's reliance on blockbuster releases and goodwill impairments raise concerns [21]

Key Takeaways Garena bookings jumped 51.4% to $775.4M, driven by Free Fire and a key NARUTO SHIPPUDEN collaboration. User base hit 661.8M with higher monetization; EBITDA margin reached 59% on operational efficiency. SE expects double-digit growth ahead, led by the Delta Force Mobile launch and Free City pre-registration.Sea Limited’s (SE) digital entertainment division, Garena, delivered an impressive first quarter of 2025, driven by the success of its flagship game, Free Fire, which is expected to susta ...

Core Insights - Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) is experiencing growth due to a strong product portfolio and innovative pipeline, with net bookings increasing 17% year-over-year to $1.58 billion in Q4 fiscal 2025, driven by a 14% rise in recurrent consumer spending, which constituted 77% of total net bookings [1][9] Group 1: Financial Performance - In fiscal 2026, net bookings are projected to be between $5.9 billion and $6 billion, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [2][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TTWO's 2026 revenues is $5.99 billion, indicating a 6.10% year-over-year growth, with earnings estimated at $3.27 per share, representing a 59.51% increase from the previous year [14] Group 2: Product Pipeline - Upcoming releases include major titles such as Mafia: The Old Country, Borderlands 4, NBA 2K26, WWE 2K26, CSR 3, Civilization VII for Switch, and the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI, set for May 2026 [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Take-Two faces significant competition from Electronic Arts (EA) and Microsoft, with EA reporting a net bookings increase of 8% year-over-year to $1.8 billion in its fiscal Q4 2025, and Microsoft leveraging its broader portfolio to maintain a competitive edge [4][5][6] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - TTWO shares have appreciated 25.5% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Gaming industry's return of 1.8% [7] - The company appears overvalued with a forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.09, higher than the industry average of 3.22, and carries a Value Score of F [11]

证券研究报告 Take-Two 互动软件 (TTWO US) 4QFY25 公司净预定量为 15.8 亿美元，符合此前公司 15.2-16.2 亿美元的 季度指引。管理层表示增长主要来自于 NBA 2K 表现较好且消费者重复支出 同比+42%，而移动端 Match Factory、Toon Blast 和新游 Color Block Jam 的收入增长势头良好。公司指引 FY26 全年净预定量 59.0-60.0 亿美元，总 收入 59.5-60.5 亿美元，GAAP 净利润-4.4 至 5.0 亿元。 主要产品情况：GTA VI 延期至 2026 年 5 月上线，新预告片反响强烈 在核心产品中，管理层预计 GTA VI 将延期至 2026 年 5 月 26 日上线，我们 认为虽有所延期，但较此前较为模糊的时间段指引（2025 年秋季）更为清 晰，后续再度延期概率或相对较小，有助于稳定市场对公司中长期估值信心； 此外管理层表示近期发布的第二部 GTA VI 预告片 24 小时内观看量超 4.75 亿次，创下了游戏视频播放量历史记录，我们认为充分表明了玩家对于 GTA VI 的热烈期待，或为后续游戏上线销量提供 ...

在讨论第三方游戏通常难以在任天堂平台取得成功的问题时，泽尔尼克承认："确实如此。从历史上 看，任天堂在第一方游戏上做得更好，支持也更多。" 然而，他认为任天堂"正试图改变这一点"，而 Take-Two Interactive"基本上已经迎接了这一挑战和机遇"。 最后，这位首席执行官表示："我们用行动表明了态度。任天堂希望我们提供支持，我们也认为自己正 在这样做。现在，我们将静观其变。" Take-Two Interactive首席执行官斯特劳斯·泽尔尼克最近接受了The Game Business的采访。访谈内容涵盖 多个话题，从近期《GTA 6》的延期到美国关税以及电子游戏价格上涨等。这位首席执行官也谈到了即 将推出的任天堂Switch 2。 当被问及对Switch 2的期待以及对这款掌机的看法时，泽尔尼克表示Take-Two"对它非常看好，但最终效 果仍需观察"。他提到，Take-Two Interactive"为任天堂平台提供的首发支持比以往任何时候都更多"，因 为他们已经"为Switch 2宣布了四款游戏"。 目前已公布的适配Switch 2的Take-Two游戏包括《无主之地4》以及未来的《NBA ...

Core Insights - TakeTwo Interactive Software (TTWO) reported a GAAP net loss of $21.08 per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which is wider than the loss of $17.02 in the same quarter last year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings was $1.08 per share [1] - GAAP net revenues increased by 13.1% year over year to $1.58 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.55 billion [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from the United States rose by 9.8% year over year to $946.1 million, accounting for 59.8% of total GAAP net revenues. International revenues increased by 18.3% year over year to $636.4 million [2] - Game revenues, which represent 93.1% of total revenues, grew by 16.9% year over year to $1.47 billion, while advertising revenues, making up 6.9% of total revenues, fell by 21.7% year over year to $108.7 million [2] Bookings Performance - Total bookings improved by 17.3% year over year to $1.58 billion, with U.S. bookings increasing by 17.4% to $961.1 million, representing 60.8% of total bookings. International bookings rose by 17.1% to $620.4 million [3] - Recurrent consumer spending increased by 14% for the period, accounting for 77% of net bookings [4] Distribution Channels - Digital online revenues grew by 14.3% year over year to $1.53 billion, making up 96.4% of GAAP net revenues. Conversely, physical retail and other revenues declined by 11.4% to $56.9 million, representing 3.6% of total revenues [4] Platform Revenue Insights - Revenues from mobile, console, and PC/other accounted for 47.2%, 37.4%, and 15.4% of GAAP net revenues, respectively. Mobile revenues increased by 4.6% to $747.4 million, console revenues rose by 4% to $591.2 million, and PC/other revenues surged by 110.7% to $243.6 million [6] Gaming Performance Highlights - NBA 2K25 achieved near-record performance, selling nearly 10 million units, a 7% increase compared to NBA 2K24 [8] - The Grand Theft Auto series exceeded expectations, with GTA V selling over 215 million units, and Red Dead Redemption 2 showing a 23% year-over-year growth in net bookings [10] Operating Details - GAAP gross profit surged by 71.2% year over year to $803.3 million, with gross margin expanding to 50.8% from 33.5% in the previous year [13] - Operating expenses rose by 43.9% year over year to $4.58 billion, with a notable operating loss of $3.78 billion compared to a loss of $2.71 billion in the prior year [14] Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, TakeTwo had $1.47 billion in cash and short-term investments, up from $1.21 billion as of December 31, 2024. The company had a total debt of $2.51 billion [15] Future Guidance - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, TakeTwo expects GAAP net revenues between $1.35 billion and $1.40 billion, with anticipated operating expenses between $908 million and $918 million. The expected loss per share is projected to be between 78 cents and 65 cents [16] - For fiscal 2026, the company forecasts GAAP net revenues between $5.95 billion and $6.05 billion, with net bookings expected in the range of $5.9 billion to $6 billion [18]

Core Viewpoint - Take-Two Interactive Software reported mixed fiscal fourth-quarter results, leading to a decline in share price despite some positive analyst ratings and guidance for future performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company declared net bookings of $1.582 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of $1.550 billion and reaching the high end of its guidance [2]. - Recurrent consumer spending grew by 14% year-on-year, contributing 77% of total net bookings [7]. - NBA 2K25 sold nearly 10 million units, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase [6]. Analyst Ratings and Guidance - Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter maintained an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $253 to $269, noting the solid performance across various segments [2]. - Raymond James analyst Andrew Marok reiterated an Outperform rating and increased the price target from $240 to $250, highlighting strong results and positive fan reception for major titles [4]. - Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey reaffirmed a Buy rating with a price target of $250, citing broad-based performance across core franchises and mobile [6]. Future Outlook - Management guided for net bookings of $5.9 billion to $6 billion and earnings of $2.45 to $2.70 per share for fiscal 2026, which was below expectations due to the delay of Grand Theft Auto VI's launch to May 26, 2026 [3]. - Fiscal 2026 is expected to have a solid release slate, with positive responses to major titles like Mafia and Borderlands 4, which should support bookings momentum [5].