2025年11月20日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) 现货运价不及宣涨，压制盘面持续下探，符合日报预期，可考虑部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 旨在支持美国总统特朗普提出的所谓 "加沙和平计划"。据悉，安理会内部围绕这一草案已经过多轮谈判，最新版本中主要有几项内容目前存在争 议：首先是该草案将授权组建一支"国际稳定部队"，该部队将与以色列、埃及以及新近培训的巴勒斯坦警察合作，协助保障边境地区安全，实现加 沙地带非军事化，并致力于"永久解除非国家武装团体的武器"，保护平民，并确保人道主义援助通道畅通；草案还授权成立一个"和平委员会 " -- 也就是加沙地带的过渡治理机构，理论上将由特朗普担任主席。其任期将持续至2027年底。此外，与先前版本不同的是，最新版本的草案提 到了未来可能建立的巴勒斯坦国。这份草案称,一旦巴勒斯坦民族仅力机构完成要求的改革,且加沙地带重建工作启动,"最终可能为巴勒斯坦人民 实现自决与建国的可信路径创造条件"。目前以色列对此坚决予以反对。 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 11月14日 11月17日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 9 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts, tariff fluctuations, and market uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. The short - term market may rebound, and different strategies are proposed for different contracts [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Most commodities are falling, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and wide - range market fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and there has been a small price increase to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market [2]. - The overall market atmosphere is bearish, with wide - range market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. Freight Index Changes - On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% from the previous period [1]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1789.50 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 876.57 points, down 0.5% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the July services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1]. - The US July manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the July services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the July composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2]. - As of July 31, the US average effective tariff rate on imported goods reached 18.9%, the highest since 1934. Tariff policies will reduce the US GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points in 2025 and 2026, increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 and 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026, and increase the average household expenditure by $2400 in 2025 [4]. Trading Data - On August 1, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1424.0, with a decline of 0.29%, a trading volume of 35,700 lots, and an open interest of 52,400 lots, an increase of 558 lots from the previous day [2]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to take a light - position long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 300 points) and partially take profits; a light - position short on the EC2512 contract is recommended, and profit - taking is advised. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - losses should be set [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, the market is mainly in a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Policy and Geopolitical Information - Trump has imposed additional tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further impacts transit trade. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1 [2]. - The Israeli opposition leader called for an end to the Gaza war, while Hamas stated that it would not give up armed resistance without the full restoration of national rights [4].