Summary of Conference Call on China Semiconductors and Cambricon Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China AI and Semiconductor industry**, particularly the developments surrounding **Cambricon Technologies** and its competitive landscape against **Nvidia** and other local chip vendors. Key Points and Arguments Cambricon's Market Position - Cambricon's share price increased by **20%** due to news from Chinese authorities urging local companies to avoid using Nvidia's H20 AI chip, which is expected to boost demand for local AI chips [1] - Anticipated higher revenue for Cambricon is supported by strong order expectations from local customers and the acquisition of **7nm additional local capacity** for AI chip production [1] Demand Dynamics - Demand for Nvidia's H20 chip remains strong, projected at over **USD 10 billion** for the second half of **2025**; however, recent policy shifts in China may create a larger market for local AI chips [2] - Local customers are expected to continue purchasing H20 chips, but any restrictions could delay shipments and increase demand for local vendors like Cambricon and Hygon [2] Advanced Logic Supply - The supply of advanced logic chips was previously a bottleneck for local AI chip vendors, but expectations have shifted positively for Cambricon, with potential allocation of **2kwpm 7nm capacity** for **2026** sales [3] - This capacity could translate to approximately **480,000 chip sales** for 2026, leading to projected revenues of **RMB 28.8 billion**, significantly higher than previous estimates [3] Supply Chain Implications - The positive outlook for Cambricon extends to the broader supply chain, benefiting foundries like **SMIC** and equipment vendors such as **NAURA**, **AMEC**, and **Piotech** [4] - Foundries with advanced logic capabilities are expected to see increased orders from local AI chip manufacturers [4] Investment Ratings - Cambricon is rated as **Market-Perform** with a price target of **CNY 600** [5] - Other companies in the sector, such as Hygon, SMIC, NAURA, AMEC, and Piotech, are rated **Outperform** [5] Additional Important Insights - The market's positive reaction to Cambricon's expected capacity allocation indicates strong investor sentiment and optimism for the local semiconductor ecosystem [3][4] - Risks include potential sanctions on Cambricon and Hygon due to their status on the US Entity List, which could impact their market share and operational capabilities [16][17] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China AI and semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on Cambricon's strategic positioning and market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia and AMD have reached an agreement to share 15% of revenue from AI chip sales to China with the U.S. government, which may facilitate the resumption of exports of these chips [1][8]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The revenue-sharing agreement reportedly includes sales from Nvidia's H20 chip, designed for artificial intelligence applications [1]. - This arrangement was discussed following a meeting between Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and President Trump, prior to the announcement of new export licenses for the H20 chip by the Commerce Department [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Nvidia generated approximately $17 billion in revenue from China in its last fiscal year, representing 13% of its total sales [10]. - AMD reported $6.2 billion in revenue from China in 2024, accounting for 24% of its total sales [10]. - If sales return to previous levels, the U.S. government could potentially collect hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter from the 15% revenue-sharing arrangement [10]. Group 3: Compliance and National Security - Nvidia has not confirmed the revenue-sharing arrangement directly but stated its commitment to compliance with U.S. government regulations [5]. - The Trump administration had previously halted exports of the H20 chip due to national security concerns, indicating the sensitive nature of the technology involved [5].

Group 1 - Nvidia and AMD have agreed to share 15% of their revenues from certain chip sales in China with the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses for specific chips [1][2] - The arrangement highlights the U.S. government's willingness to create exceptions in trade policies as a bargaining tool amid ongoing tariffs [2] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang recently met with President Trump, indicating active engagement between the company and the U.S. administration [2] Group 2 - President Trump has threatened a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports unless companies are manufacturing in the United States, reflecting a tough stance on trade [2] - The deal allows Nvidia to sell its H20 chips and AMD to sell its MI308 chips in China, which could impact their market presence in the region [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has denied Chinese allegations regarding the presence of a "kill switch" in its data center GPUs for AI, asserting that such features do not exist in their products [1][2]. Group 1: Nvidia's Response to Allegations - Nvidia's Chief Security Officer stated that the company's GPUs do not and should not have kill switches or backdoors [1]. - The response follows a request from the Cyberspace Administration of China for documentation on alleged security vulnerabilities in Nvidia's H20 AI chip [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - Nvidia is navigating geopolitical tensions as demand for its AI chips remains high globally, with U.S. lawmakers proposing legislation for location-tracking systems on exported AI chips [3]. - The U.S. has implemented export controls on certain Nvidia chips to China, citing national security concerns related to potential military applications [3]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Nvidia's CEO has advocated for the company's chips to become the global standard for AI computing, particularly among Chinese developers, suggesting a strategic advantage for the U.S. [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent restrictions on AI chip sales in China, particularly focusing on the market dynamics for Nvidia and local manufacturers, and the projected growth of the AI accelerator market in the coming years [2][3]. Group 1: Market Projections - Bernstein estimates that the Chinese AI accelerator market will reach $39.5 billion by 2025, primarily driven by Nvidia H20 ($22.9 billion), AMD MI308 ($2 billion), and local manufacturers ($14.6 billion) [2]. - Following the sales ban, Nvidia is expected to lose $1.68 billion in H20 sales, while AMD may lose $150 million, with some orders shifting to local manufacturers, potentially increasing their revenue by about 10% [2]. - Despite local manufacturers' growth, Bernstein believes they cannot fully cover the $18.3 billion gap due to production bottlenecks in 7nm wafers and CoWoS technology [2]. Group 2: Nvidia's Strategy - Nvidia plans to apply for the resumption of H20 sales and introduce a compliant NVIDIA RTX PRO GPU, with initial demand projected at $10.5 billion, although it will not meet the initial demand of $16.8 billion [2][3]. - The anticipated shipment of B30 chips to China is expected to reach 400,000 units, generating $2.8 billion in revenue, while local manufacturers may only gain an additional $1.5 billion due to new restrictions [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major cloud service providers in China, including ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu, are the primary buyers of H20, accounting for 87% of total sales [5]. - By 2027, local manufacturers are projected to capture 55% of the market share, while global competitors may face technological stagnation and lose their competitive edge [3]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The article highlights discrepancies between GPU shipment data from Bernstein and IDC, noting that Huawei holds a 23% market share, while Nvidia's share is overstated by IDC by 7 percentage points [16][20]. - The supply-demand relationship indicates that aside from Alibaba and Baidu, other major companies are purchasing Huawei's AI chips, raising questions about the accuracy of reported data [23]. Group 5: Local Manufacturers - The report identifies local GPU manufacturers, with Huawei leading the market, followed by Cambricon, Haiguang, and Tianshu [20][21]. - The revenue of local manufacturers is expected to increase significantly, with Moore Threads projected to boost its revenue through substantial AI computing GPU shipments in 2024 [36][38].

In this articleNVDA"Compared to Nvidia's export-restricted chips, the performance gap between Huawei and the H20 is less than a full generation," said Dylan Patel, founder, CEO and chief analyst of SemiAnalysis. Sinology | Moment | Getty ImagesWith the U.S. restricting China from buying advanced semiconductors used in artificial intelligence development, Beijing is placing hopes on domestic alternatives such as Huawei. The task has been made more challenging by the fact that U.S. curbs not only inhibit Chin ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容编译自路透社，谢谢。 据美国国家公共电台周三报道，在英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋上周出席了海湖庄园晚宴后，特朗普政 府已经改变了限制 NvidiaH20 人工智能芯片进入中国市场。 据 NPR 援引两位消息人士称，美国计划对这些芯片实施出口管制——这是美国出口管制下可在中国 合法获得的最先进的人工智能处理器——已经酝酿了数月，并准备最早于本周实施。 但在在英伟达承诺向特朗普政府对美国人工智能数据中心进行新的投资后，计划发生了改变。 白宫和英伟达没有立即回应路透社的置评请求。 据路透社 1 月份报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政府正在考虑加强对这家人工智能领军企业为中国市 场设计的 H20 芯片的销售限制。 自民主党前总统乔·拜登执政以来，美国就一直在考虑限制向中国出口这些芯片。 今年 2 月，路透社报道称，受中国初创公司 DeepSeek 低成本 AI 模型需求旺盛的推动，H20 的订 单量激增。 据《信息报》上周报道，今年前三个月，中国厂商已向 Nvidia 下达了至少160 亿美元的 H20 服务 器芯片订单。 两名美国议员，共和党人约翰·穆勒纳尔 (John M ...