ab 16 September 2025 Global Research NIO Inc Upgrade to Buy: Consumer confidence restored Upgrade from Neutral to Buy We upgrade Nio from Neutral to Buy, as the company's latest products could further attract consumers after the US$1bn equity offerings strengthened visibility on its healthy operations. We expect Nio to hold net cash of Rmb21bn by end-2025 and achieve FCF breakeven in 2026. With upward consensus revisions to its revenue and bottom-line estimates, Nio's valuation discount with its closest pee ...

Summary of Nio Inc. (NIO/9866.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Nio Inc. (NIO/9866.HK) - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EV) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Equity Offering Announcement**: Nio announced a US$1 billion (Rmb7.1 billion) equity offering of up to 181,818,190 Class A shares, representing 8% of outstanding shares, with an option for an additional 27,272,728 ADSs (1% of outstanding shares) [2] 2. **Pricing Details**: The ADSs are priced at US$5.57 and Class A shares at HK$43.36, reflecting a decrease of 7% and 11% compared to the last close [2] 3. **Use of Proceeds**: The funds raised will be allocated towards vehicle technology R&D, expanding the battery swapping and charging network, and strengthening the company's balance sheet [2] 4. **R&D and Capex Estimates**: Nio is expected to spend Rmb11 billion on R&D and Rmb8-9 billion on capital expenditures in 2025 and 2026 [3] 5. **Leverage Ratio Improvement**: The company's leverage ratio is projected to decrease from 98% to 92% by 2025 [3] 6. **Product Strategy Execution**: The equity offering is seen as a means to enhance Nio's ability to execute its product strategy, with improvements noted in new model launches such as Onvo L90 and Nio ES8 [4] 7. **Volume Forecast**: Quarterly volume is expected to improve from 42,000 and 72,000 in Q1 and Q2 2025 to 89,000 and 131,000 in Q3 and Q4 2025 [4] 8. **Cost Optimization**: Nio aims to reduce operating expenses by 20%-25%, which is anticipated to improve EBIT margins from -53% and -26% in Q1 and Q2 2025 to -17% and -3% in Q3 and Q4 2025 [4] 9. **Market Share Decline**: Nio has experienced a decline in NEV market share from 3.9% in 2020 to 2.0% in 2024 due to increased competition [5] 10. **Cost Control Measures**: Management is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements since March 2025, targeting profit breakeven by Q4 2025 [7] 11. **Investment Rating**: The current rating for Nio is Neutral, with key risks identified as stronger government support for the auto industry and lower-than-expected sales volume [7] 12. **Price Target**: The 12-month DCF-based price targets are US$4.1 for ADR and HK$31.8 for H-share, with risks including government policy support and sales volume fluctuations [8] Additional Important Information - **Competitive Landscape**: The market is highly competitive with 120 new model launches from various OEMs, impacting Nio's market position [7] - **Management's Focus**: There is a strong emphasis on improving operational efficiency and managing costs to navigate the competitive environment [7] - **Analyst Insights**: Analysts express caution regarding Nio's ability to meet management's volume targets amidst intensifying competition [5][7] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Nio Inc.'s strategic initiatives, financial outlook, and market challenges.

Core Insights - Nio's stock experienced a decline following the release of its second-quarter earnings, despite showing potential for future growth [1] - The ongoing price war in the Chinese automotive market is impacting Nio's performance and margins [1][11] Financial Performance - Nio reported an adjusted operating loss of $564 million on sales of $2.7 billion, which was better than Wall Street's expectation of a $620 million loss [2] - The company's sales improved from the previous year's second quarter, where it posted a loss of $673 million on sales of $2.4 billion [2] - Total revenues reached $2.65 billion, marking a 9% increase year-over-year, while vehicle sales generated $2.25 billion, a modest 2.9% increase [7] Delivery and Production - Nio delivered 72,056 electric vehicles in the second quarter, a 25.6% increase compared to the previous year and a 71.2% increase from the first quarter of 2025 [3] - The launch of the Onvo L90 SUV and the upcoming ES8 model are expected to drive further delivery growth [6] Pricing and Margins - The average selling price of Nio's vehicles decreased to approximately $31,000 from about $38,000 a year ago, reflecting the impact of the price war [8] - Vehicle margins fell to 10.3% in the second quarter, down from 12.2% in the prior year [8] Market Outlook - Nio anticipates delivering around 89,000 vehicles in the third quarter, a significant increase from the previous year's 62,000 [10] - Projected sales for the third quarter are expected to be around $3.1 billion, which is below Wall Street's forecast of $3.4 billion [10] - The company is implementing cost reduction strategies to mitigate the effects of the price war and support margins [11]

Investors should not overlook competition in FY26E. We are of the view that we could not draw a linear extrapolation on NIO's sales volume in FY26E, based on its 4Q25 figures, as other automakers could launch new models with even more aggressive pricing. Even as we project NIO's FY26E sales volume to be 0.5mn units, we still expect NIO to post a GAAP net loss of RMB7.8bn in FY26E. We believe NIO's three-brand strategy, heavy investments in NIO House, battery swap, chips and even mobile phones, would require ...

Summary of NIO Inc. Q2 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: NIO Inc. - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) Manufacturing - **Date of Report**: September 2, 2025 Key Financial Results - **Operating Loss**: Rmb4,909 million for Q2 2025, a decrease of 24% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) and 6% year-over-year (y/y) [2] - **GAAP Net Loss**: Rmb5,141 million, narrowing by 25% q/q and flat y/y [2] - **Non-GAAP Net Loss**: Rmb4,125 million, a decrease of 9% y/y and 34% q/q [2] - **Vehicle Margin**: 10.3%, up 0.1 percentage points (ppt) q/q but down 1.9 ppt y/y [3] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Rmb224,000, down 5% q/q and 7-8% below market expectations [3] - **Research and Development (R&D) Expenses**: Rmb3 billion, down 5% q/q and 7% y/y [3] - **Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) Expenses**: Rmb4 billion, down 10% q/q but up 6% y/y [3] - **Cash Position**: Gross cash of Rmb27 billion and net cash of Rmb12 billion as of June 30, 2025 [3] Outlook and Guidance - **Q3 2025 Delivery Guidance**: 87,000 to 91,000 units, implying 35,000 to 39,000 unit sales in September [4] - **Volume Growth**: Expected 41-47% y/y increase in volume for Q3 2025, but revenue growth is guided at only 17-23% y/y, indicating potential ASP declines [4] - **Order Intake**: Strong order intake reported for Onvo L90 and new Nio ES8, both launched at competitive prices [4] Valuation Metrics - **Current Trading Valuation**: 0.8x 2026E Price/Sales (P/S) compared to Li Auto's 0.9x and XPeng's 1.5x [5] - **Price Target**: Raised to US$6.20 from US$5.40 based on improved volume forecasts [5] - **Market Capitalization**: US$14.3 billion as of August 29, 2025 [6] Risks and Challenges - **Demand Risks**: Weaker-than-expected demand due to macroeconomic conditions [14] - **Supply Chain Risks**: Concentration of battery suppliers may weaken bargaining power and increase raw material costs [14] - **Competition**: Increased competition from local and traditional OEMs [14] - **Government Subsidies**: Potential decline in government subsidies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) [14] Additional Insights - **Sales Volume Performance**: Total sales volume for Q2 2025 was 72,056 units, with various models showing mixed performance [10] - **Analyst Ratings**: Current rating is Neutral with a price target reflecting a cautious outlook [28] - **Market Context**: The EV market in China is highly competitive, with significant pressure on margins and pricing strategies [12][14] This summary encapsulates the critical financial metrics, outlook, valuation, and risks associated with NIO Inc. as discussed in the Q2 2025 earnings call.

Core Viewpoint - NIO-SW (09866) shares have surged over 50% this month, with a current increase of 6.68% to HKD 52.85, driven by strong orders for new models and positive market sentiment [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - NIO's stock price has increased by over 6% today, with a trading volume of HKD 231 million [1] - The stock has accumulated a rise of over 50% within the month [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - JPMorgan's report anticipates that three upcoming events by year-end will further boost NIO's stock price [1] - The recent stock price increase is attributed to strong order flows for the Onvo L90 and NIO ES8 SUV, which are competitively priced [1] Group 3: Competitive Advantage - NIO's unique Battery as a Service (BAAS) option effectively reduces the purchase price by approximately 25-30%, making its vehicles more attractive compared to competitors in the same segment [1] Group 4: Sales Forecast - Morgan Stanley highlights strong orders for the ES8, suggesting that monthly sales could reach 40,000 to 50,000 units starting in October, contingent on order conversion [1] - The increase in NIO's stock price is seen as self-reinforcing, as investor confidence is linked to the company's operational financing and strategic goals [1]

Core Viewpoint - NIO-SW (09866) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 50% this month, with a current rise of 6.68% to HKD 52.85, driven by strong orders for new models and positive market sentiment [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - NIO's stock price has risen over 6% recently, with a trading volume of HKD 231 million [1] - The stock has accumulated a gain of over 50% within the month [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - Morgan Stanley's report highlights three upcoming events by year-end that are expected to further boost NIO's stock price [1] - The recent stock price surge is attributed to strong order flows for the Onvo L90 and NIO ES8 SUV, which are competitively priced [1] Group 3: Competitive Advantage - NIO's unique Battery as a Service (BAAS) option effectively reduces the purchase price by approximately 25-30%, making its vehicles more attractive compared to competitors in the same segment [1] Group 4: Sales Outlook - Morgan Stanley indicates that NIO has strong orders for the ES8, with potential monthly sales reaching 40,000 to 50,000 units starting in October [1] - The positive market response is believed to enhance investor confidence, linking stock performance to the company's operational financing and strategic goals [1]

Core Insights - Nio's shares experienced a significant increase following the launch of its new affordable ES8 SUV, highlighting the competitive pricing strategies in the Chinese electric vehicle market [2][3] Company Summary - Nio's U.S.-listed shares rose by 9.27% to close at $5.54, while shares in Hong Kong increased by up to 10% in early trading [2] - The newly launched ES8 SUV is priced at 308,800 yuan ($43,000) under a battery subscription plan, which reduces initial costs and allows for battery upgrades through a monthly fee [2] - Deliveries of the ES8 are expected to commence in late September [2] Industry Context - The introduction of the ES8 is part of Nio's strategy to compete in a market where other manufacturers are offering similar features at lower prices [3] - Nio has historically focused on the high-end market but is now expanding its offerings with two new brands: Onvo, targeting the mass market, and Firefly, aimed at young urban consumers [3] - The stock surge is attributed to market expectations of strong new orders for the ES8 and the recently launched Onvo L90 [3]

Summary of NIO Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NIO Inc. (Ticker: 9866.HK) - **Industry**: China Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: Rmb132,183 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$34.80 (as of July 31, 2025) - **Price Target**: HK$45.80, indicating a 32% upside potential [5][5][5] Key Product Launch - **Product**: Onvo L90 - **Launch Date**: July 31, 2025 - **Price Range**: Rmb265.8k - 299.8k - **Configuration**: 6-seat, 2+2+2 layout aimed at a broader customer base - **Features**: Spacious cabin, AR-HUD, L2+ smart driving based on Nvidia Orin-X - **Market Reaction**: Initial pricing exceeded expectations, with the Ultra version priced below Rmb300k being a positive surprise [2][2][2] Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - **Stock Performance**: NIO H-shares rose 27% in July, outperforming the HSI which rose 2.9% - **Market Sentiment**: Despite positive pre-order intake for the Onvo L90, fragile market sentiment may lead to profit-taking post-launch - **Volatility**: Ongoing tug-of-war between onshore bulls and offshore bears expected to keep stock volatile until clarity on order conversion and delivery ramp-up in August-September [3][3][3] Financial Projections - **Revenue Estimates**: - FY 2024: Rmb65,731 million - FY 2025: Rmb114,167 million - FY 2026: Rmb144,834 million - FY 2027: Rmb180,853 million - **EPS Estimates**: - FY 2024: (Rmb11.03) - FY 2025: (Rmb5.70) - FY 2026: (Rmb7.93) - FY 2027: (Rmb2.57) [5][5][5] Valuation Methodology - **WACC**: 18.7% - **Beta**: 2.4 - **Long-term Growth Rate**: 3% - **Valuation Scenarios**: 25%/50%/25% weightings for bull/base/bear cases reflecting macro outlook and sector competition [9][10][10] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Introduction of a mass market brand - Stronger-than-expected sales volume - Improvements in operating efficiency - **Downside Risks**: - Weaker-than-expected sales volume - Lack of efficiency improvements - Moderating auto sales growth impacting overall industry valuations [12][12][12] Conclusion - NIO Inc. is positioned for potential growth with the launch of the Onvo L90, but market volatility and execution risks remain significant factors to monitor. The financial outlook shows a path towards revenue growth, albeit with projected losses in the near term. Investors should remain cautious and attentive to market reactions and operational performance in the coming months.

分组1 - Investment Rating: Overweight [4] - Industry View: In-Line [4] - Price Target: US$5.90 [4] 分组2 - The share price of NIO-H (9866.HK) increased by 11% due to strong pre-order intake for the Onvo L90, which reached 30-35k units [1][2] - The Onvo L90 is expected to be competitive in the sub-Rmb300k segment, particularly if its official price is lower than the pre-sale price [1] - Monthly sales of over 5k units for the L90 are considered achievable based on estimates [1] 分组3 - The recent share price rally is attributed to short-covering trades, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - Investors are advised to monitor store traffic and pre-sale order intake leading up to the official delivery in August [2] - The bullish outlook hinges on improved sales for the L60 model and more aggressive promotions for NIO brands [2]