蔚来-SW(09866)涨超6%，月内股价已累涨超五成。截至发稿，涨6.68%，报52.85港元，成交额2.31亿港 元。 消息面上，摩通大根发报告指，预期接近年底的三场事件将进一步推动蔚来股价上涨。报告表示，蔚来 股价近期大幅上涨，主要受惠于 Onvo L90 和蔚来 ES8 SUV 的两款新车的强劲订单流。摩通认为，这两 款车的定价都极具竞争力，因蔚来提供独特的 BAAS（电池即服务）选项，可有效降低购买价格约25- 30%，因此与同细分市场的同类车型相比更具吸引力。 摩根士丹利指出，蔚来拥有强劲的ES8订单，虽然真正的需求仍取决于订单转化，但正面的反应支持市 场信心，预示着从10月开始，集团的月均销量或将达到4万至5万辆。该行认为蔚来股价上升属自我强 化，因投资者相信股价与资本市场对参与蔚来经营融资及战略目标的意愿相关，亦与经营价值及有否能 力过渡汽车行业加快"洗牌"有所关连。 ...

Core Viewpoint - NIO-SW (09866) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 50% this month, with a current rise of 6.68% to HKD 52.85, driven by strong orders for new models and positive market sentiment [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - NIO's stock price has risen over 6% recently, with a trading volume of HKD 231 million [1] - The stock has accumulated a gain of over 50% within the month [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - Morgan Stanley's report highlights three upcoming events by year-end that are expected to further boost NIO's stock price [1] - The recent stock price surge is attributed to strong order flows for the Onvo L90 and NIO ES8 SUV, which are competitively priced [1] Group 3: Competitive Advantage - NIO's unique Battery as a Service (BAAS) option effectively reduces the purchase price by approximately 25-30%, making its vehicles more attractive compared to competitors in the same segment [1] Group 4: Sales Outlook - Morgan Stanley indicates that NIO has strong orders for the ES8, with potential monthly sales reaching 40,000 to 50,000 units starting in October [1] - The positive market response is believed to enhance investor confidence, linking stock performance to the company's operational financing and strategic goals [1]

Core Insights - Nio's shares experienced a significant increase following the launch of its new affordable ES8 SUV, highlighting the competitive pricing strategies in the Chinese electric vehicle market [2][3] Company Summary - Nio's U.S.-listed shares rose by 9.27% to close at $5.54, while shares in Hong Kong increased by up to 10% in early trading [2] - The newly launched ES8 SUV is priced at 308,800 yuan ($43,000) under a battery subscription plan, which reduces initial costs and allows for battery upgrades through a monthly fee [2] - Deliveries of the ES8 are expected to commence in late September [2] Industry Context - The introduction of the ES8 is part of Nio's strategy to compete in a market where other manufacturers are offering similar features at lower prices [3] - Nio has historically focused on the high-end market but is now expanding its offerings with two new brands: Onvo, targeting the mass market, and Firefly, aimed at young urban consumers [3] - The stock surge is attributed to market expectations of strong new orders for the ES8 and the recently launched Onvo L90 [3]

Summary of NIO Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NIO Inc. (Ticker: 9866.HK) - **Industry**: China Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: Rmb132,183 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$34.80 (as of July 31, 2025) - **Price Target**: HK$45.80, indicating a 32% upside potential [5][5][5] Key Product Launch - **Product**: Onvo L90 - **Launch Date**: July 31, 2025 - **Price Range**: Rmb265.8k - 299.8k - **Configuration**: 6-seat, 2+2+2 layout aimed at a broader customer base - **Features**: Spacious cabin, AR-HUD, L2+ smart driving based on Nvidia Orin-X - **Market Reaction**: Initial pricing exceeded expectations, with the Ultra version priced below Rmb300k being a positive surprise [2][2][2] Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - **Stock Performance**: NIO H-shares rose 27% in July, outperforming the HSI which rose 2.9% - **Market Sentiment**: Despite positive pre-order intake for the Onvo L90, fragile market sentiment may lead to profit-taking post-launch - **Volatility**: Ongoing tug-of-war between onshore bulls and offshore bears expected to keep stock volatile until clarity on order conversion and delivery ramp-up in August-September [3][3][3] Financial Projections - **Revenue Estimates**: - FY 2024: Rmb65,731 million - FY 2025: Rmb114,167 million - FY 2026: Rmb144,834 million - FY 2027: Rmb180,853 million - **EPS Estimates**: - FY 2024: (Rmb11.03) - FY 2025: (Rmb5.70) - FY 2026: (Rmb7.93) - FY 2027: (Rmb2.57) [5][5][5] Valuation Methodology - **WACC**: 18.7% - **Beta**: 2.4 - **Long-term Growth Rate**: 3% - **Valuation Scenarios**: 25%/50%/25% weightings for bull/base/bear cases reflecting macro outlook and sector competition [9][10][10] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Introduction of a mass market brand - Stronger-than-expected sales volume - Improvements in operating efficiency - **Downside Risks**: - Weaker-than-expected sales volume - Lack of efficiency improvements - Moderating auto sales growth impacting overall industry valuations [12][12][12] Conclusion - NIO Inc. is positioned for potential growth with the launch of the Onvo L90, but market volatility and execution risks remain significant factors to monitor. The financial outlook shows a path towards revenue growth, albeit with projected losses in the near term. Investors should remain cautious and attentive to market reactions and operational performance in the coming months.

分组1 - Investment Rating: Overweight [4] - Industry View: In-Line [4] - Price Target: US$5.90 [4] 分组2 - The share price of NIO-H (9866.HK) increased by 11% due to strong pre-order intake for the Onvo L90, which reached 30-35k units [1][2] - The Onvo L90 is expected to be competitive in the sub-Rmb300k segment, particularly if its official price is lower than the pre-sale price [1] - Monthly sales of over 5k units for the L90 are considered achievable based on estimates [1] 分组3 - The recent share price rally is attributed to short-covering trades, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - Investors are advised to monitor store traffic and pre-sale order intake leading up to the official delivery in August [2] - The bullish outlook hinges on improved sales for the L60 model and more aggressive promotions for NIO brands [2]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts do not expect Nio to achieve profitability for several years, raising questions about the attractiveness of its stock despite recent price increases driven by positive analyst sentiment [1][5][6] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nio's shares rose by 5.6% on Friday, following a 6% gain on Thursday, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The stock's performance is attributed to a favorable note from Morgan Stanley, which reiterated an overweight rating on Nio [1][3] Group 2: Product Offering - Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao praised Nio's new Onvo L90, a full-size, all-electric, three-row crossover SUV with a range of up to 375 miles [3] - The presale prices for the Onvo L90 are expected to be between 270,000 yuan and 280,000 yuan (approximately $37,600 to $39,000) [3] - Nio's Onvo brand is positioned similarly to Hyundai's Kia, offering competitive specifications at a lower price point compared to luxury models [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - Nio's revenue growth has slowed significantly, with only a 15% increase last year after tripling revenues from 2020 to 2023 [6] - The company is currently facing annual losses of approximately $3.3 billion, with analysts projecting that Nio may not achieve profitability before 2028 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of OVERWEIGHT for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB12.0 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 39%. The attributable net loss was RMB6.9 billion, up 31% year-on-year and down 3% quarter-on-quarter. The revenue slightly missed the company's estimate due to intense competition in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market [1]. - The report suggests monitoring the sales ramp-ups of new models such as the Onvo L90 and L80 in the second half of 2025, alongside ongoing cost cuts and efficiency gains, which could lead to marginal improvements [1]. - The company delivered 42,000 new vehicles in Q1 2025, a 40% increase year-on-year but a 42% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The gross profit margin (GPM) for the quarter was 7.6%, with the automobile GPM at 10.2%. The decline in automobile GPM quarter-on-quarter is attributed to lower output and rising manufacturing costs [2]. - The Onvo L90 and L80 models are expected to leverage spacious interiors and competitive pricing to capture market share in the RMB200,000-300,000 family-facing BEV segment [3]. - The deployment of the NIO World Model (NWM) has improved safety and user experience, with a 40% improvement in precision for highway and urban scenarios [4]. - The company maintains its 2025/2026/2027 attributable net profit forecasts at RMB-14.5 billion, RMB-7.7 billion, and RMB-1.9 billion respectively, with a target price of USD4.09 [5]. Financial Summary - The company expects revenue growth from RMB55.6 billion in 2023 to RMB149.9 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.42% [12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent is projected to improve from a loss of RMB21.1 billion in 2023 to a loss of RMB1.9 billion in 2027 [12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to increase significantly over the forecast period, reaching RMB31.8 billion by 2027 [12]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately USD8.14 billion, with a potential upside of 13% from the current closing price of USD3.63 [8].