❑ 2026 年 1 月 5 日，NVIDIA 宣布，NVIDIA BlueField-4 数据处理器（NVIDIA BlueField 全栈平台的一部分）为 NVIDIA 推理上下文内存存储平台提供支持， 该平台是面向下一代 AI 前沿的新一代 AI 原生存储基础设施。1 月 20 日，在 2026 阿里云 PolarDB 开发者大会上，阿里云旗下云原生数据库 PolarDB 正式 发布 AI 数据湖库（Lakebase）等系列全新产品能力。 评论： ❑ 我们认为：大模型记忆和硬件，将成为模型发展核心叙事，助力 AIDB 与向量 数据库规模化进程： 证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业重大事项点评 AI infra：算力系统化升级 DB for AI 进程加速 事项： 行业研究 计算机 2026 年 01 月 27 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周楚薇 邮箱：zhouchuwei@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数( ...

Core Insights - Cloud computing is experiencing rapid growth driven by artificial intelligence, with Amazon and Oracle adopting different strategies to capture market share in this trillion-dollar sector [1][2] Amazon (AMZN) Overview - Amazon Web Services (AWS) holds approximately 29% market share, generating $33 billion in revenues for Q3 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 20.2%, the highest in 11 quarters [2][3] - AWS reported $11.4 billion in operating income and has a cloud backlog of $200 billion, indicating strong revenue visibility [3][5] - Amazon has significantly expanded its infrastructure, adding over 3.8 gigawatts of power capacity in the past year and plans to double total capacity by 2027 [4] - The company has made substantial investments, including a $38 billion deal with OpenAI and a $50 billion investment in AI data centers [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMZN's 2026 earnings is $7.87 per share, reflecting a 9.65% increase from the previous year [6] Oracle (ORCL) Overview - Oracle's Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) have surged to $523 billion, a 438% increase year-over-year, with $68 billion in new commitments from major partners [7][10] - Cloud Infrastructure revenues grew 68% to $4.1 billion, driven by demand for AI training workloads [7] - Oracle's differentiated approach focuses on secure, high-performance infrastructure optimized for enterprise databases and AI models [8] - The company faces execution challenges, with a negative free cash flow of $10 billion in Q2 fiscal 2026 and increased capital expenditure guidance to approximately $50 billion [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORCL's fiscal 2026 earnings is $7.42 per share, indicating a 23.05% growth over the previous fiscal year [11] Valuation and Market Performance - Amazon shares have returned 6.2% over the past six months, while Oracle shares have declined by 24.4% [12] - Both companies are currently considered overvalued, with Amazon trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.18x and Oracle at 6.96x, despite Oracle's execution uncertainties [16] Conclusion - Amazon is positioned as the superior investment opportunity due to its strong execution, diversified revenue streams, and sustainable growth fundamentals, while Oracle's high RPO introduces concentration risks and requires flawless execution [19]

Core Insights - Oracle is pursuing an aggressive infrastructure expansion strategy to position itself at the forefront of the artificial intelligence revolution, which has raised concerns among investors regarding the timing of their investments [1] Financial Performance - Oracle reported fiscal second-quarter revenues of $16.1 billion, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth, with cloud infrastructure revenues increasing by 68% to $4.1 billion [2] - Remaining performance obligations surged to $523 billion, with $68 billion in new commitments from major clients like Meta and NVIDIA, indicating strong enterprise demand for Oracle's cloud infrastructure [2] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The company raised its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure guidance to approximately $50 billion, a $15 billion increase from previous expectations, more than double the $21.2 billion spent in fiscal 2025 [3] - Free cash flow turned negative at $10 billion in the fiscal second quarter due to accelerated data center capacity buildout [3] Strategic Developments - Oracle announced the availability of Oracle AI Database 26ai for on-premises Linux x86-64 platforms, expanding its AI-native database capabilities beyond cloud services [4] - A partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy was revealed, focusing on advancing AI and computing initiatives, including the Genesis Mission [5] - At the AWS re:Invent conference, Oracle announced native integration with AWS Key Management Service, enhancing security for its database services [6] Multicloud Strategy - Oracle's multicloud strategy is gaining traction, with 147 live customer-facing regions and plans for 64 additional regions, alongside the construction of 72 multicloud data centers within major cloud environments [7] - The multicloud database business grew by 817% in the fiscal second quarter, marking it as the fastest-growing segment of Oracle's portfolio [7] Future Guidance - For the fiscal third quarter, Oracle projects total revenue growth of 19% to 21% and non-GAAP earnings per share between $1.70 and $1.74, maintaining its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue expectation of $67 billion [10] - Management emphasized a commitment to maintaining an investment-grade debt rating and highlighted alternative financing options to reduce borrowing requirements [11] Valuation and Competitive Landscape - Oracle trades at a trailing 12-month Price-to-earnings ratio of 33.95, slightly above the industry average of 33.5, indicating relatively expensive valuation metrics [13] - Over the past six months, Oracle shares have declined by 18.2%, underperforming the broader Computer and Technology sector [16] - The competitive environment remains intense, with Oracle competing against major players like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, each focusing on different aspects of cloud infrastructure and AI capabilities [17]

Core Insights - Oracle is set to report its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on December 10, with total revenues expected to grow between 12% to 14% in constant currency and 14% to 16% in dollar terms at current exchange rates, with a consensus estimate of $16.15 billion, indicating a 14.84% increase year-over-year [1] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - Non-GAAP earnings per share are projected to be between $1.58 and $1.62 in constant currency, reflecting an 8-10% growth, and between $1.61 and $1.65 in USD, indicating a 10-12% growth, with a consensus estimate of $1.63 per share, showing a 10.88% increase from the previous year [2] Recent Performance and Trends - In the last reported quarter, Oracle had an earnings surprise of 0.00%, with mixed results over the past four quarters, including two misses and one beat [3] - The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a neutral outlook for earnings [5] Strategic Developments - Oracle's $300 billion, five-year cloud computing agreement with OpenAI has positioned it as a key AI infrastructure provider, contributing to a 359% year-over-year increase in remaining performance obligations to $455 billion [7][8] - The company introduced significant AI initiatives, including Oracle AI Database 26ai and OCI Zettascale10, the largest AI supercomputer in the cloud, and expanded its partnership with Google Cloud [9][10] Competitive Landscape - Oracle faces intense competition in the cloud space, with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google holding a combined 62% market share in global enterprise cloud infrastructure services [15] - Despite Oracle's strong position in database management and ERP software, competitors are gaining traction in the cloud market [15] Valuation and Financial Considerations - Oracle's stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.31, slightly above the industry average and significantly higher than its five-year median of 22.38, indicating a stretched valuation [16] - The company has over $105 billion in debt and projected capital expenditures of $35 billion for fiscal 2026, raising concerns about financial leverage and execution risks [10][19] Conclusion - While Oracle's AI infrastructure transformation shows potential, the premium valuation and execution risks suggest caution for investors, particularly in light of competitive pressures and balance sheet concerns [20]

Core Insights - Salesforce and Oracle are leading players in the cloud software market, providing enterprise-grade platforms for various business needs [1][2] - The ongoing digital transformation raises the question of which stock presents a better investment opportunity [2] Salesforce Overview - Salesforce maintains its leadership in the customer relationship management market and is expanding its ecosystem to include AI, data, and collaboration [3] - The introduction of Einstein GPT has integrated generative AI into Salesforce's offerings, enhancing automation and decision-making for clients [4] - AI-driven products like Agentforce and Data Cloud generated $1.2 billion in recurring revenue in Q2 of fiscal 2026, marking a 120% year-over-year increase [5] - Global spending on generative AI is projected to reach $644 billion by 2025, with enterprise software expected to grow by 93.9% to $37.16 billion [6] - Despite a revenue growth slowdown to 8.7% year-over-year in the first half of fiscal 2026, this is attributed to macroeconomic factors rather than company-specific issues [7] Oracle Overview - Oracle's revenues increased by 12% year-over-year to $14.9 billion in Q1 of fiscal 2026, with cloud revenues rising 27% to $7.19 billion [8] - Cloud infrastructure revenues surged 54% to $3.35 billion, with management projecting significant growth in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenues [8][10] - Oracle has secured multi-billion-dollar contracts with major tech companies, contributing to its optimistic growth outlook [9] - The company is investing heavily in infrastructure, expecting to spend around $35 billion in fiscal 2026, which is 70% higher than the previous year [12] - Despite strong revenue growth, Oracle's non-GAAP EPS increased only 6%, and it reported a negative free cash flow of $362 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026 [13] Comparative Analysis - Oracle's growth outlook appears stronger, with projected revenue and EPS growth rates of 16.5% and 12.9% for fiscal 2026, respectively [14] - In contrast, Salesforce's fiscal 2026 estimates indicate more modest growth rates of 8.8% for revenue and 11.4% for EPS [15] - Year-to-date, Salesforce shares have decreased by 32.1%, while Oracle shares have increased by 19.3% [17] - On a valuation basis, Salesforce has a forward P/E ratio of 18.33, compared to Oracle's 26.95 [18] Conclusion - Oracle is positioned as the more compelling investment choice due to its accelerated growth in AI, unified platform strategy, and favorable growth outlook [21] - Salesforce's slowing growth has impacted its stock price, but its leadership in CRM and focus on AI remain positive factors [22]

Core Insights - Oracle aims to redefine its position in the enterprise AI market with a product suite centered around "AI + Data" as it seeks to reshape its image in the AI era [2] - A report from MIT indicates that 95% of generative AI investments have not yielded substantial benefits for enterprises, highlighting the importance of data infrastructure and architecture [2] Group 1: Strategic Focus - Oracle's strategic focus has shifted from cloud infrastructure to overall AI capabilities, emphasizing openness in technology architecture, multi-cloud support, and external ecosystem collaboration [4] - The introduction of Oracle AI Database 26ai is positioned as a "next-generation AI-native database" that supports the creation and deployment of intelligent applications [4][5] Group 2: Product Offerings - Oracle AI Data Platform (AIDP) aims to integrate databases, data lakes, and large model services under a unified architecture, providing tools for data visualization and workflow management [5] - The new OCI Zettascale10 Cluster supercomputing cluster supports up to 800,000 GPUs and is designed for high throughput and low latency, serving as a performance engine for OCI [5] Group 3: Partnerships and Collaborations - Oracle has partnered with Dify, an open-source LLM application development platform, to embed AI into the data layer and enhance enterprise-level intelligent applications [4][6] - The collaboration with Dify allows for the integration of structured and vector data into Dify's workflows, enhancing the capabilities of Oracle's AI Database 26ai [7] Group 4: Market Positioning - Oracle's collaboration with Dify is seen as a strategy to tap into more enterprise-level scenarios amid increasing competition in AI infrastructure [8] - The company is also expanding its data center deployments in the Middle East and Africa to cater to the outbound needs of Chinese enterprises [8]

Core Insights - Oracle aims to redefine its position in the enterprise AI market with a product suite centered around "AI + Data" [1] - A report from MIT indicates that 95% of generative AI investments have not yielded substantial returns for businesses [1] - Oracle emphasizes the importance of building a solid data foundation before implementing AI applications [1] Product Offerings - Oracle AI Database 26ai is introduced as a "next-generation AI-native database" that supports the creation and deployment of intelligent applications [2] - The Oracle AI Data Platform (AIDP) integrates databases, data lakes, and large model services under a unified architecture [2] - The platform includes tools for data visualization, workflow management, and conversational interfaces for business users [2] Cloud Infrastructure - Oracle has launched the OCI Zettascale10 Cluster, capable of supporting up to 800,000 GPUs, enhancing throughput and reducing latency [3] - The Zettascale10 Cluster is part of a collaboration with OpenAI for the "Stargate" project, which has an initial investment of $100 billion [3] - The total energy consumption for the Stargate project data centers is projected to reach 5 gigawatts, deploying over 2 million chips [3] Market Dynamics - Many Chinese enterprises are focusing their limited IT budgets on AI projects, but the outcomes are often unsatisfactory due to weak data foundations [4] - Oracle collaborates with Dify, an open-source community, to strengthen its enterprise-level intelligent infrastructure [4] - Dify's products are integrated into Oracle Cloud Marketplace, allowing for seamless deployment in OCI environments [4] Strategic Positioning - Oracle seeks to find a new positioning in the Chinese market through partnerships and an open, multi-cloud technology approach [5] - The company has been in China for 36 years and is now reshaping its image with new product offerings and partnerships [5] - Oracle is expanding its data center deployments in the Middle East and Africa to cater to the needs of Chinese enterprises going global [5]

Core Insights - Oracle has achieved a remarkable 44.5% increase in share price year to date in 2025, significantly outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, primarily due to strong growth in its cloud infrastructure business [1][8]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Oracle reported total revenues of $14.9 billion, reflecting a 12% growth in constant currency, with cloud revenues increasing by 27% to $7.2 billion and cloud infrastructure revenues surging 54% to $3.3 billion [3][4]. - Remaining performance obligations have skyrocketed by 359% year over year, reaching $455 billion, indicating substantial growth potential [2]. Growth Projections - Management has provided ambitious guidance, forecasting Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenues to grow 77% to $18 billion in fiscal 2026, with projections of $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and ultimately $144 billion by fiscal 2030 [3][4]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 revenues stands at $66.89 billion, suggesting a growth of 16.54% from the previous year [5]. Strategic Developments - Oracle's recent AI World conference highlighted its comprehensive AI strategy, including the introduction of Oracle AI Database 26ai and the Oracle AI Data Platform, aimed at enhancing interoperability and simplifying data preparation for AI implementations [6][7]. - The company has deepened partnerships with major cloud providers like Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services, showcasing a pragmatic approach to customer data management [7]. Competitive Landscape - The cloud infrastructure market remains highly competitive, with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform holding significant market shares. AWS leads with approximately 30% market share, while Microsoft Azure has reported a 39% revenue growth [8][10]. - Oracle differentiates itself by embedding its infrastructure directly within major cloud providers' environments, which has allowed it to maintain a competitive edge [11]. Valuation Concerns - Oracle's current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 32.73 times, above the industry average of 30.72 times and its own five-year median of 22.13 times, indicating a premium valuation that reflects investor enthusiasm but also introduces execution risks [14]. - Investors may consider maintaining positions due to the company's strong competitive positioning and substantial contracted backlog, while new investors might wait for more favorable entry points [17].

Group 1 - The AGIX index aims to capture the beta and alphas of the AGI era, representing a significant technological paradigm shift expected to reshape society over the next 20 years, similar to the impact of the internet [2] - The AGIX PM Notes serve as a record of thoughts on the AGI process, inspired by legendary investors like Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio, to witness and participate in this unprecedented technological revolution [2] Group 2 - AGIX has shown a weekly performance of 2.48%, a year-to-date return of 35.13%, and an impressive return of 86.13% since 2024, outperforming major indices like S&P 500 and QQQ [5] - The performance of sectors indicates that the application sector has the highest index weight at 39.77%, followed by infrastructure at 24.93% and semi & hardware at 30.00% [6] Group 3 - Netflix has committed to fully embracing generative AI to enhance production efficiency, despite industry concerns about AI replacing creative roles, with a quarterly revenue growth of 17% to $11.5 billion [19] - Anthropic launched the web version of Claude Code, which has seen a tenfold increase in users since its release, contributing over $500 million in annual revenue [20] - Oracle released AI Database 26ai, integrating AI capabilities deeply into its database stack, allowing semantic searches with a single SQL command [22] Group 4 - The AI infrastructure investment remains strong, with significant deals such as Anthropic's cloud service agreement worth billions and OpenAI's collaboration on a $15 billion data center project [22] - Meta AI's daily active users surged to 2.7 million after launching the 'Vibes' AI video feature, indicating a strong market response [23] - Adobe introduced AI Foundry, allowing enterprises to create customized generative AI models, enhancing brand compliance and output control [24] Group 5 - SAP reported robust Q3 results with total revenue of $10.53 billion, a 11% year-over-year increase, and a 29% rise in net profit to $2.15 billion, despite cloud revenue slightly missing expectations [27] - The differences between ETFs and index funds are highlighted, with ETFs offering real-time trading and lower costs, while index funds provide simplicity and are better suited for long-term investments [28][29]

Core Insights - Oracle has integrated AI into its flagship database, enhancing data management and enabling customers to gain insights and productivity across multicloud and on-premises environments [1][2] - The new Oracle Autonomous AI Lakehouse supports the Apache Iceberg open table format, allowing customers to leverage Oracle AI Database for their data lake data [1][5] AI Integration - Oracle AI Database 26ai incorporates AI across the entire data and development stack, including AI Vector Search, AI for Database Management, and AI for Analytics, facilitating sophisticated AI workflows [1][2] - The database's built-in AI capabilities provide customers with flexibility in building and deploying AI applications, supporting various frameworks and protocols [2] Data Protection - Oracle AI Database implements NIST-approved quantum-resistant algorithms for data encryption, enhancing security against future quantum computing threats [3] AI Features - The database includes advanced features such as Unified Hybrid Vector Search, enabling retrieval of various data types, and built-in data privacy protection measures [9] - Oracle AI Database 26ai allows customers to build and manage in-database AI agents using a no-code visual platform, simplifying AI adoption [4] Performance and Scalability - The Autonomous AI Lakehouse delivers Exadata-powered performance and serverless scaling, available on major hyperscalers [5][6] - Oracle Exadata enhances AI performance by offloading vector queries and providing low-latency data access [9] Future Developments - Planned features for Oracle AI Database 26ai include a Private AI Services Container for secure AI model deployment and integration with NVIDIA for accelerated computing [9][10]