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摩根士丹利:中国-云半导体走向 2025 年下半年低谷
摩根· 2025-05-08 01:49
Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as In-Line [8] Core Insights - The report maintains a conservative stance on cloud semiconductors in the near term, with expectations that the cycle could trough in the second half of 2025 [2][6] - A recent CIO survey indicates potential downside for China cloud capital expenditures (capex) in 2H25, with data center build-out being a top spending priority but also the most likely to face budget cuts [3][11][15] - Strong orders for non-AI cloud semiconductors are anticipated into 2Q25, with Montage Technology showing sequential revenue growth [4][6] - AI cloud semiconductors may experience a slowdown in specification migration, but demand remains strong for inference applications, particularly for Nvidia [5][10] Summary by Sections Cloud Semiconductors - The report suggests that the cloud semiconductor market is heading into a trough in 2H25, with a conservative outlook maintained for the near term [2][10] - The top four cloud service providers (CSPs) reported a 64% year-over-year increase in capex in 1Q25, slightly down from 68% [6][30] CIO Survey Insights - The CIO survey indicates that data center build-out is a top priority for spending in 2025, but it is also the category most vulnerable to cuts, with a 19% response rate indicating it is likely to be cut, increasing to 29% after the announcement of reciprocal tariffs [3][18] - The defensiveness of data center build-out has decreased significantly post-tariff announcements [18] Company-Specific Insights - Montage Technology's price target has been adjusted from RMB 90.00 to RMB 88.00, reflecting earnings estimate cuts due to uncertainties in the market [8][45] - The report anticipates a 38% year-over-year growth in global cloud capex for 2025, up from a previous forecast of 31%, indicating strong investment trends among major cloud players [19][24] Financial Projections - Earnings estimates for Montage have been revised downwards, with a 2% cut for 2025 and a 5% cut for 2026, reflecting risks associated with potential cuts in data center projects [45][46] - The financial summary for Montage indicates projected net sales of RMB 5.601 billion for 2025, with a gross profit margin of 60.6% [41][46]
Credo Technology(CRDO):公司点评:同环比高增,新客户可期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-03-18 06:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 154.4% year-over-year and 87.4% quarter-over-quarter for FY25Q3, achieving $135 million in revenue [1]. - The GAAP net profit for FY25Q3 was $29.36 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6760% and a return to profitability [1]. - The company expects FY25Q4 revenue to be between $155 million and $165 million, with a year-over-year growth of 163% [1]. Performance Summary - For FY25, FY26, and FY27, the company is projected to achieve revenues of $423.46 million, $662.22 million, and $798.71 million, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 119.4%, 56.4%, and 20.6% [6]. - The GAAP net profit is expected to be $35.30 million in FY25, $95.45 million in FY26, and $174.25 million in FY27, with significant growth rates [6]. Business Analysis - The revenue growth in FY25Q3 was primarily driven by increased demand from major clients, with the largest client accounting for 86% of revenue [2]. - The company is actively expanding its PCIe-related product offerings and is expected to showcase PCIe AEC products at the upcoming GTC event [2]. - The company has successfully integrated its PCIe retimer into a major AI server ODM, with revenue expected to materialize in CY26 [2].