Core Insights - The earnings season has concluded, leading to a quieter week ahead with limited notable reports expected [1] - Key economic reports include the S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing purchasing managers' indexes (PMI), along with consumer sentiment data [1] - Companies to watch for quarterly results include Chewy (CHWY), GameStop (GME), KB Home (KBH), and Paychex (PAYX) [1] Economic Report Schedule - The delayed January construction spending report is scheduled for release on Monday, March 23 [2] - On Tuesday, March 24, the revised fourth-quarter U.S. productivity reading, S&P flash U.S. services PMI, and manufacturing PMI will be released [2] - The import price index is set to be published on Wednesday, March 25 [2] - Weekly jobs data will be available on Thursday, March 26 [2] - The week will conclude with March's consumer sentiment data on Friday, March 27 [3]

Export Growth Forecast - In Q1 2026, January export growth is expected to decline to approximately 4.6% due to base effects and regulatory disruptions, followed by a significant rebound to around 16% in February, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival[1][2][3] - March is anticipated to see a decline in export growth due to the lagging effects of the Spring Festival, similar to patterns observed in 2015, 2018, and 2024[1][2][3] Tariff Impact on Exports - The cancellation of IEEPA tariffs is expected to create a short-term window for export growth, with a 10% reduction in tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. and a 5% decrease for Southeast Asian countries[2][3] - If the 122 tariffs are extended, overall export growth for the year is projected to stabilize at around 3-4% due to a moderate increase in 301 and 232 tariffs[3][4] - Conversely, if the 122 tariffs are not extended, there may be a significant increase in 301 and 232 tariffs, leading to structural changes in export dynamics, with overall export growth potentially exceeding 5%[3][4] Export Prediction Indicators - Port throughput data is a key leading indicator for export trends, showing a strong correlation with export growth, although it lacks price factors and cannot distinguish between import and export activities[4][5] - Shipping data provides daily insights into export trends but has limited coverage for developing countries, making it challenging to predict overall export volumes accurately[4][5] - PMI data, while consistent with export growth trends, is influenced by market sentiment and may not capture short-term fluctuations effectively[4][5] Risks and Considerations - Potential macroeconomic and industrial policy changes could lead to unexpected outcomes in export performance[5][6]

Core Insights - December preliminary S&P global PMIs indicate a slowdown in manufacturing and services sectors, with manufacturing at 51.8%, down from 52.2% last month, marking the lowest since July [1] - Services PMI came in at 52.9%, lower than the expected 54 and last month's 54.1%, reflecting a similar trend of decline [1] - The composite PMI registered at 53, below the expected 53.9% and last month's 54.2%, indicating a general weakening across sectors [2] Industry Analysis - All three PMIs remain above the expansion threshold of 50, but they are all below market expectations, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic growth [3] - The yield curve is showing some steepness, influenced by recent job reports and slight weakening in the labor market, which is affecting two-year yields due to Federal Reserve implications [3] - Current 10-year yields are hovering around 4.18%, reflecting a one basis point increase, indicating ongoing volatility in the long end of the yield curve [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in the manufacturing boom level [2]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the non - manufacturing sector generally continued to expand [3]. - The composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May. Large enterprises' PMI was 51.2% (up 0.5 percentage points), medium - sized enterprises' was 48.6% (up 1.1 percentage points), and small enterprises' was 47.3% (down 2.0 percentage points) [2]. - **Sub - indices**: Among the 5 sub - indices, the production index (51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points), new order index (50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points), and supplier delivery time index (50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points) were above the critical point. The raw material inventory index (48.0%, up 0.6 percentage points) and the employment index (47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points) were below the critical point [2]. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: The non - manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The construction business activity index was 52.8% (up 1.8 percentage points), and the service business activity index was 50.1% (down 0.1 percentage points) [3]. - **Industry Situation**: Industries such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services were in a high - boom range (above 55.0%), while retail, transportation, and real estate industries were below the critical point [3]. Composite PMI Output Index - In June, the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities [4].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical line, indicating weak manufacturing sentiment[7] - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, but remains below the critical line, suggesting insufficient demand[11] - The inventory indices for raw materials and finished products are both below the critical point, indicating inadequate replenishment sentiment in manufacturing[16] Group 2: Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased to 50.2%, a rise of 0.1 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in business activities[21] - The new orders index for services is at 46.6%, below the critical line, pointing to weak demand conditions[21] - The business activity expectations index is at 56.5%, indicating a positive outlook for future service sector activities[21] Group 3: Construction Sector - The construction PMI is recorded at 51%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, but still above the critical line, indicating ongoing expansion albeit at a slower pace[27] - The new orders index for construction is at 43.3%, suggesting pressure on demand[27] - The employment index in construction is at 39.5%, indicating insufficient hiring sentiment in the sector[27] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The overall economic sentiment is supported by recent monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and structural adjustments aimed at economic recovery[30] - Risks include deviations from expected fundamental recovery, unexpected macroeconomic policies, and geopolitical uncertainties[31]