Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. However, the trend strength of PP is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the short - term advice of not chasing short positions and medium - term trend still under pressure [3]. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term market for PP does not require chasing short positions, but the medium - term trend still faces significant pressure. The supply side remains high, which is a major factor suppressing the market. Although recent trading volume has improved slightly due to low - price - driven short - term restocking, the peak demand period within the year has passed. In the long - run, cost pressure, high supply, and weak downstream demand with low profits will be the dominant factors in the first half of 2026. However, the low profit of PP also restricts the supply side and limits the potential for future price declines [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6474, with a daily increase of 0.40%. The trading volume was 308,865, and the open interest decreased by 6371. The 01 - contract basis was - 144 (compared to - 160 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 101 (compared to - 97 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price**: In the North China region, the spot price was in the range of 6230 - 6450 yuan/ton; in the East China region, it was 6330 - 6580 yuan/ton; and in the South China region, it was 6430 - 6550 yuan/ton [1]. [Spot News] - The domestic PP market showed a slightly positive trend, with some prices rising by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The positive oscillation of PP futures boosted the trading atmosphere in the spot market. Some producers raised their factory prices, strengthening the cost support for the goods, and traders slightly increased their quotes accordingly. However, downstream factories remained cautious in raw material procurement, with some entering the market to make appropriate low - price purchases [2]. [Market Condition Analysis] - The high supply on the supply side is still the main factor suppressing the market. The recent improvement in trading volume is mainly due to short - term restocking at low prices. The peak demand period within the year has passed, and the key to the future market lies in future demand factors. In the long - term, cost pressure, high supply, and weak downstream demand with low profits will be the dominant factors in the first half of 2026. The low profit of PP also exerts pressure on the supply side and limits the potential for future price declines [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of PP is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the interval [-2, 2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current trend of the PP market remains weak, but due to the high uncertainty of the cost - end and policy directions, short - term short - selling at low levels requires caution [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2509 yesterday was 7062, with a daily decline of 0.17%. The trading volume was 143,578 and the open interest decreased by 16,581. The 09 - contract basis was - 62 (compared to - 75 the previous day), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 29 (compared to - 31 the previous day) [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of PP in North China was 6900 - 7050 yuan/ton (compared to 6920 - 7050 yuan/ton the previous day), in East China was 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), and in South China was 6950 - 7140 yuan/ton (compared to 6950 - 7130 yuan/ton the previous day) [1] Spot News - The domestic PP market price was narrowly adjusted. The weak oscillation of PP futures had little boost to the spot market. Most factory prices of production enterprises remained stable. Due to cost considerations, the quotations of traders changed little. Near the weekend, downstream buyers were mostly cautious and their inquiry enthusiasm was low, resulting in low trading volume [2] Market Condition Analysis - The cost side of PP has been continuously weak recently, and there are no obvious highlights on the demand side. The market terminal is limited by over - capacity and faces great foreign trade uncertainties in demand, leading to a weakening of export products and poor domestic downstream demand. The supply pressure has further increased with the profit repair from the collapse of the cost side and the implementation of new production capacity expansion. However, there is still high uncertainty in the cost side, and policies are against deflation and involution, so caution is needed at the annual low, especially when the market is oscillating due to the weakening of the monthly spread recently [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 18 日 PP：现货震荡，成交清淡 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2509 | 7020 | 0.09% | 167,459 | 4160 | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 09合约基差 | -40 | | -33 | | | | 09-01合约价差 | 4 | | 5 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6960 - | 7080 | 6980 - | 7080 | | | 华东 | 6980 - | 7120 | 6980 - | 7130 | | | 华南 | 6970 - | 7200 | 6970 - | 7200 | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消 ...

2025 年 7 月 4 日 PP：现货震荡，成交平淡 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 PP 基本面数据 | PP 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2509 | 7074 | 0.23% | 206,902 | -1113 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 0 9合约基差 | -54 | | -22 | | | | 0 9-0 1合约价差 | 3 3 | | 4 4 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | | 华北 | 7010 - | 7160 | 7000 - | 7150 | | | 华东 | 7020 - | 7200 | 7050 - | 7220 | | | 华南 | 7060 - | 7250 | 7060 - | 7220 | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 30 日 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP：现货震荡，成交偏淡 PP 基本面数据 | 期货 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2509 | 7103 | | 0.23% | 223,643 | | -4105 | | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 价差 | 09 合约基差 | | 17 | | 22 | | | | | 09-01 合约价差 | | 62 | | 55 | | | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | | 重要现货价格 | 华北 | 7070 | - 7160 | | 7060 - | 7170 | | | | 华东 | 7120 | - 7250 | | 7130 - | 7250 | | | | 华南 | 7140 | - 7250 | | 7150 - | 7250 | ...