证券研究报告 | 2025年08月24日 洽洽食品公布 2025 年半年度业绩：1H25 实现营业总收入 27.5 亿元，同比 -5.0%；实现归母净利润 0.9 亿元，同比-73.7%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.4 亿元，同比-84.8%。 洽洽食品（002557.SZ） 优于大市 2025 年上半年渠道结构调整、成本压力显著 收入端：渠道结构持续调整，2Q25 收入恢复正增。1H25 收入同比-5.0%，其中 葵花子/坚果/其他品类分别同比-4.4%/-7.0%/-13.8%，主要受到春节错期因 素影响，Q1 收入同比-13.8%；Q2 单季度在去年同期较低基数之上，收入同 比+9.7%。分渠道看，在传统渠道流量持续下滑背景下，公司积极调整渠道 结构、加大力度与新兴渠道合作，1H25 经销及其他渠道收入同比-18.5%； 直营渠道（含电商）收入同比+63.0%，其中电商渠道同比+24.8%、占比提升 至 16.4%。从区域看，东方区/南方区/北方区收入同比 -24.8%/+2.4%/-19.8%，南方区有所增长主要系量贩零食渠道、山姆等新兴 渠道的增长所致。 利润端：成本压力显著，费用投放增多。1H25 毛 ...

Core Viewpoint - The reduction plan by major shareholder Qin Dongdong highlights the ongoing operational challenges faced by Defang Nano, as the company continues to report losses despite some revenue growth [2][4]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Qin Dongdong, holding 5.01% of Defang Nano, plans to reduce his stake by up to 2.7954 million shares, representing 1% of the total share capital, within three months after a 15 trading day period from the announcement [1]. - The timing of the reduction coincides with the end of a six-month lock-up period following the transfer of shares, indicating a strategic move [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Defang Nano reported total revenue of 2.004 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, but still posted a net loss of 167 million yuan [2]. - The loss margin has narrowed by 9.51% compared to the same period last year, but the company has not yet achieved profitability [2]. - Sales of phosphate-based cathode materials reached 61,500 tons, marking a year-on-year growth of 36.85% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.65% [2]. - The company continues to face a loss of 370 yuan per ton, although this is an improvement from the 1,100 yuan loss per ton reported in Q4 2024 [2]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - The accounts receivable turnover days have increased from 45 days in 2022 to 92 days by the end of 2024, significantly exceeding the industry median of approximately 70 days, indicating reduced cash flow efficiency [2]. - As of Q1 2025, the current ratio of Defang Nano was only 0.94, below the safe level, raising concerns about short-term solvency [2]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - In response to operational pressures, Defang Nano is pursuing four key strategies to improve its business situation: optimizing product structure, enhancing operational management, accelerating global capacity expansion, and fostering continuous innovation [3]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Some brokerages predict that Defang Nano may achieve a quarterly profit in the second half of 2025, although profit expectations for 2025-2026 have been revised downward [4]. - The timing of Qin Dongdong's reduction is seen as a cautious signal to the market, reflecting the company's ongoing struggles with systemic challenges such as industry overcapacity and raw material price fluctuations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the Trump administration's economic policies is becoming increasingly evident, with significant challenges for businesses due to the loss of immigrant labor and fluctuating trade policies [1][4]. Economic Activity - Recent data from the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight recovery in U.S. economic activity, but the overall outlook remains "neutral to pessimistic" [3]. - All regions reported price increases, with businesses experiencing varying degrees of cost pressure related to tariffs [3][5]. Cost Pressures - Businesses are facing high input cost pressures due to increased tariffs, leading to either profit compression or potential price hikes for consumers [5][6]. - Many companies are adopting different strategies in response to these pressures, with some raising prices preemptively while others choose to wait for clearer trade policies [5]. Consumer Impact - Rising costs are expected to lead to faster increases in consumer prices by late summer, potentially affecting purchasing power and living costs [6]. - If consumer prices rise too quickly without corresponding income growth, it could suppress market demand, negatively impacting business sales and profits [6]. Manufacturing Sector - A few companies mentioned potential benefits from manufacturing returning to the U.S., but this is seen as a rare occurrence and not a guaranteed trend [6]. - The uncertainty in trade policies is hindering businesses from making long-term plans, which could stifle economic vitality [6]. Business Sentiment - Many businesses express concerns about future demand, with some indicating a "business volume cliff" that suggests a significant decline in future activity [4][6]. - The prevailing cautious attitude among businesses, coupled with pessimistic future expectations, may lead to reduced investment and expansion plans, potentially hindering economic growth [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Most metals are expected to show different trends of price fluctuations in the short term, including high - level oscillations, weakening trends, etc. [1][3][4] - The investment value and risks of different non - ferrous metals vary, and investors need to pay attention to inventory changes, cost factors, and policy impacts. [1][3][14] 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: Yesterday, LME copper closed down 0.32% to $9,619/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,280 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 77,600 - 78,800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,500 - 9,700/ton. [1] - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 4,025 to 103,325 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 4.5 tons, remaining at a low level. [1] - **Market Situation**: Overseas geopolitical situations are volatile, and copper follows risk preferences. The tight supply of copper concentrates strengthens, and low inventory strongly supports copper prices, but weakening demand restricts the upside. [1] Aluminum - **Price**: Yesterday, LME aluminum closed down 0.82% to $2,525/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,540 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20,300 - 20,700 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,480 - 2,550/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 17,000 to 646,000 lots, and warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 54,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 0.9 tons to 449,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 345,000 tons. [3] - **Market Situation**: Overseas geopolitical situations are volatile, and rising oil prices push up overseas aluminum costs, but demand concerns suppress sentiment. Low domestic inventory and possible easing of US steel - aluminum tariffs support price increases, but weakening downstream demand restricts the upside. [3] Lead - **Price**: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.70% to 16,932 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakening trend. [4] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 43,800 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 51,200 tons. [4] - **Market Situation**: Downstream battery enterprises have weak consumption, and the operating rate of primary lead smelting reaches a historical high, while the inventory of recycled lead products remains high, with weak downside support. [4] Zinc - **Price**: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.74% to 21,691 yuan/ton. There is a large downward risk in the future. [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 8,600 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,600 tons. [6] - **Market Situation**: Zinc ore is in surplus, zinc smelter profits increase, and terminal consumption is weak. Although domestic social inventory has decreased, overall visible inventory is stable, and there is a large downward risk. [6] Tin - **Price**: On June 19, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 263,300 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and LME tin price in the range of $31,000 - 33,000/ton. [7][8] - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 39 to 6,613 tons, and LME inventory increased by 25 to 2,200 tons. [7] - **Market Situation**: The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, and short - term supply of tin ore is tight. Upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell, but downstream acceptance of high - price raw materials is limited, and the industrial chain is in a stalemate. [7][8] Nickel - **Price**: On Thursday, nickel prices oscillated. It is expected that the SHFE nickel main contract will run in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton. [9] - **Market Situation**: The shortage of nickel ore has marginally eased, and the price of nickel iron is dragged down by weak stainless - steel demand. The production of MHP in Indonesia has recovered, and the prices of intermediate products and nickel sulfate are expected to decline. The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and inventory is difficult to maintain, which may lead to a decline in nickel prices. [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 59,961 yuan, down 0.24%. The LC2509 contract closed at 60,060 yuan, up 0.30%. It is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom in the short term, with the GZEE lithium carbonate 2509 contract running in the range of 59,300 - 60,700 yuan/ton. [11] - **Inventory**: This week, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 1.8% to 18,462 tons, and inventory increased by 1,352 to 134,901 tons. [11] - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not improved substantially, supply is resilient, and inventory is under pressure. [11] Alumina - **Price**: On June 19, 2025, the alumina index closed down 0.65% to 2,892 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of the year, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton. [13][14] - **Inventory**: On Thursday, futures warehouse receipts were 49,200 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous day. [14] - **Market Situation**: There are continuous disturbances in the ore end, but the over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. The price is expected to be anchored by cost, and the focus of ore prices may rise this year. [14] Stainless Steel - **Price**: On Thursday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,575 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. [16] - **Inventory**: Futures inventory was 114,869 tons, a decrease of 2,110 tons from the previous day. Social inventory increased to 1,157,400 tons, up 1.04%. [16] - **Market Situation**: High inventory of Qing Shan resources suppresses steel prices, downstream users are waiting and watching, and actual transactions are light. The industry is under cost pressure, and the future market depends on whether downstream demand can drive inventory digestion. [16]

Group 1 - The confidence index for business and professional services in the UK dropped from -28 in February to -43 in May, marking the lowest level since November 2022 [1] - Consumer-facing service companies also experienced a decline in confidence, with price increase expectations rising at the fastest rate in two years for business and professional services [1] - Concerns were raised regarding the increase in employer social security contributions by £25 billion (approximately $33.78 billion) and a nearly 7% rise in the minimum wage, both effective from April [1] Group 2 - The profit expectations index for business and professional services fell to -47, the lowest level since February 2020, and lower than the previous quarter's -36 [2] - Investment intentions, business volume, and hiring conditions all showed a decline [2] - The UK services sector's PMI for May recorded an initial value of 50.2, indicating a slow return to growth, despite low confidence in future prospects [2]

Core Insights - Yoshinoya aims to become the world's largest ramen restaurant by the fiscal year ending February 2035, as stated in its latest mid-term business plan (2025-2029) [1] - The company plans to transform its ramen business into a significant third business segment alongside its existing domestic and overseas operations, targeting a fourfold increase in ramen revenue within five years [1][2] Business Strategy - Yoshinoya has set a target to increase ramen sales from 8 billion yen (approximately 0.4 billion RMB) to 40 billion yen (approximately 1.99 billion RMB) by the fiscal year 2029, representing an annual growth rate of 38% [1][2] - The company aims to expand its ramen store count to 500 locations by 2029, increasing the ramen segment's contribution to total sales from 4% to 13% [1][2] Financial Goals - The ramen business's profitability is expected to grow tenfold, from 400 million yen to 4 billion yen over the next five years [2] - Yoshinoya's overall sales target is set at 300 billion yen by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9% [2] Recent Acquisitions - The company has acquired 17 ramen brands, including Setagaya and Kirameki, to strengthen its ramen supply chain [3][5] - Yoshinoya's acquisition of Takara Sangyo, a supplier of noodles and sauces, is intended to enhance production capacity and sales resources for its global ramen expansion [5] Market Challenges - Yoshinoya's previous attempts to expand its Udon brand in China were unsuccessful, leading to its exit from the market in 2022 [8][9] - The company faces challenges in the Chinese market, where Japanese ramen has struggled with issues such as lack of cost-effectiveness and insufficient product innovation [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 7.131 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.79%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 849 million yuan, up 5.82% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 773 million yuan, an increase of 8.86% year-on-year. However, in Q4 2024, the operating revenue was 2.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 1.99%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 24.79% to 223 million yuan [2][4][10] - In Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 1.571 billion yuan, a decline of 13.76% year-on-year, with a net profit of 77 million yuan, down 67.88% year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s total operating revenue was 7.131 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 28.78%, and a net profit margin of 11.91%. The Q4 2024 gross profit margin decreased to 25.83%, and the net profit margin fell to 9.41% [10][4] - The company’s revenue from sunflower seed business grew by 2.6%, while the nut business saw a revenue increase of 9.74% due to new product launches and market expansion [10][4] Cost and Profitability - The rising cost of sunflower seed raw materials has put short-term pressure on the company’s profitability. The net profit margin for Q1 2025 dropped to 4.92%, with a gross profit margin of 19.47% [10][4] - The company is expected to face challenges in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 due to increased procurement costs and weak demand, leading to a significant impact on gross profit [10][4] Future Outlook - The company plans to diversify its channel layout and continue expanding its nut business, with expectations of new product launches in the coming year. It is anticipated that raw material prices will stabilize, potentially improving gross margins in the latter half of the year [10][4] - The projected EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 1.43 yuan and 1.84 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17 and 13 times [10][4]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 2025年3月，工企营收累计同比3.4%、前值2.8%；利润累计同比0.8%、前值-0.3%。3月末，产成 品存货同比4.2%、前值4.2%。 核心观点：利润回升主要源于营收改善，而成本压力等中期约束仍在。 3月利润增速回升主要源于营收改善，其他损益、费用等短期指标也有贡献；而成本压力等中期约束有所 增大。 3月，工业利润当月同比回升2.8pct至2.5%。拆分结构看，利润回升主要源于营收改善，实际营收 支撑利润同比上行6.2%。利润率的贡献主要体现在费用、其他损益（投资收益、营业税金及附加等杂项 支出）等短期指标回升，带动利润同比上行3.8%、0.3%。相比之下，成本对利润仍然构成较大约束，拖 累整体利润下行5.9%。 3月，营收增速回升较大的是煤炭冶金链与下游消费行业，主要受益于基建提速及以旧换新政策拉动。 分结构看，3月基建提速支撑冶金产业链实际营收改善幅度较大，当月同比较前月回升2.5pct至6 ...