Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has officially approved the launch of monthly average futures contracts for LLDPE, PVC, and PP, set to take effect on July 25, 2025, marking a significant upgrade in pricing mechanisms for these essential materials [16][32]. Group 1: Introduction of Monthly Average Futures - The new monthly average futures contracts will not involve physical delivery but will settle based on the arithmetic average of the settlement prices of the corresponding physical delivery futures over the month [16][32]. - This innovation aims to provide enterprises with a more stable pricing reference, aligning with the continuous production and batch purchasing needs of businesses [17][19]. Group 2: Operational Details - The trading codes for the new contracts will be structured as follows: L for LLDPE, V for PVC, and PP for PP, followed by the contract month and an "F" to denote the monthly average [21][23]. - For example, the contract L2509F represents the LLDPE monthly average futures for September 2025 [23]. Group 3: Market Demand and Benefits - There is a growing market demand for a transparent and authoritative monthly average pricing reference system, which the DCE's new futures contracts aim to fulfill [32]. - The introduction of these contracts is expected to stabilize costs for companies, allowing them to lock in monthly prices and reduce the anxiety associated with daily price fluctuations [19][32]. Group 4: Risk Management and Settlement Mechanism - The DCE has designed a detailed settlement and risk management mechanism to ensure the smooth operation of the monthly average futures [34][40]. - The settlement price will be calculated based on the average of the daily settlement prices of the corresponding physical delivery futures, with more recent prices given higher weight [38][40]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The launch of monthly average futures is not just a tool upgrade but represents a deeper evolution in futures services for the real economy, enhancing the stability of the entire industrial chain [42][45]. - This development signifies a step towards a more mature pricing system in the Chinese market, reflecting the growing importance of these materials in everyday life and their role in market pricing dynamics [45].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of monthly average price futures for three chemical products fills a gap in domestic average price risk management tools, facilitating smoother price fluctuations and better risk management for enterprises in international trade [4][5]. Group 1: Monthly Average Price Futures - The monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be listed for trading starting from October 28, 2025, with night trading sessions [5]. - The listing benchmark prices for the contracts are based on the settlement prices on the listing date [5][7]. Group 2: Market Trends for Polyethylene and Polypropylene - The bearish trend for plastic and polypropylene futures continues, driven by declining cost support, new supply capacity, and insufficient demand [8]. - The price decline began in late November to early December 2024, with significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and subsequent destocking cycles [8]. - Despite a rebound in oil prices, the prices of plastic and polypropylene futures face technical pressure and have entered a downward trend again by the end of August [8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - For polyethylene, rapid growth in domestic production due to capacity expansion is expected to persist throughout the year, with seasonal demand peaks in October [9]. - In polypropylene, while there is still strong demand in October, the seasonal demand decline is anticipated in November and December, with new capacity pressures expected to ease in the fourth quarter [9]. - Overall, both polyethylene and polypropylene prices are expected to remain in a bearish market, with short-term support from demand and geopolitical factors, but fundamental supply-demand pressures will likely lead to a "rise then fall" price trend [9]. Group 4: PVC Market Analysis - The PVC market is characterized by high supply and weak demand, with social inventory at historical highs [13]. - Despite ongoing losses in the PVC industry, some manufacturers are increasing production, with a projected increase of 220,000 tons this year [16]. - The PVC market faces potential export pressures due to anti-dumping measures from India, which could significantly impact future exports [17][18].