新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-08 目前基本面方面仍然呈现库存较高，供应过剩的状态，但印尼方面利多政策频出，且镍在底部震荡时间较长，近 期易受贵金属、有色方面盈利资金关注，预计仍将保持强势。 沪镍不锈钢强势涨停，现货 "有价无市" 隐现分化 镍品种 市场分析 2026-01-07日沪镍主力合约2601开于143500元/吨，收于147720元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化8.00%，当日成交量为 1132256（+393922）手，持仓量为132955（1474）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现单边暴涨、尾盘封死涨停的极端走势，价格创2024年6月以来新高，日内波动相 对收敛，资金做多情绪达到高潮。近日委内瑞拉局势紧张，引发全球资源供给稳定性恐慌，贵金属及有色板块集 体大幅上涨，叠加印尼政策造成供给端收缩预期，资金涌入前期处于低位的镍品种，引发昨日价格涨停。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，近期镍矿市场招标落地，市场整体镍矿资源有限，镍矿价格稳中偏强运行。菲律宾 方面，菲律宾Benguet矿山1.25镍矿招标落地至32.5美元，环比上涨。矿山维持看涨心态。印尼方面，2026年1月(一 期)内贸基 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-08 原料成本推升，钢材强势向上 钢材：原料成本推升，钢材强势向上 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材盘面强劲上涨，全国建材价格普涨20-40元，市场拿货积极性有所提高，全国建材成交12.53 万吨。由于原料价格大幅上涨，推升钢材价格同步上行，市场情绪明显提振。 供需与逻辑：目前建材供需基本面暂无矛盾，保持低产量，低消费，低库存状态，考虑到元旦之后建材将步入冬 储行情，重点关注升贴水变化和钢材冬储情况。板材依旧受制于高库存压制，考虑到元旦后钢厂存在复产情况， 板材库存压力尚存。短期受国际政局影响和低估值补涨，黑色商品表现偏强，然而情绪退坡后仍需考验基本面成 色，后期关注钢厂复产情况。 策略 单边：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、地产数据、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：宏观情绪改善，铁矿大幅上涨 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货市场表现强势，受益于黑色板块上行带动，铁矿石2605合约大幅上涨。现货方面， 铁矿石港口现货主流品种报价跟随盘面偏强运行、贸易商报价多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主，目前现货市场 成交冷清。 供需与逻辑：目前铁 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：库存低位，支撑价格 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：17100-17800元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 国内铅现货从平水转为升水 0 5 10 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-31 情绪边际改善，华南现货小幅反弹 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 市场分析 1、12月30日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价3038元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨44元/吨，涨幅 1.47%；持仓118184手，环比下跌23149手，成交243652手，环比上涨6073手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2870—3190元/吨；华南，2900—2950元/吨； 昨日华北以及华南地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格基本持稳。尽管沥青刚性需求整体表现欠 佳，但由于局部地区沥青现货流通量较为紧张，供应端存在支撑。整体来看，目前盘面定价转移到南方地区，随 着部分炼厂供应减量，情绪相比上周已有所好转，反弹预期显现。此外，委油原料断供事件则是潜在的上行风险， 市场多空因素交织，现实与预期博弈下，底部反弹需要等待更明确的信号。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号明确，可尝试左侧逢低多配置 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-23 供应端增量继续压制盘面价格 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5647元/吨（-48），丙烯华东现货价5925元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5890元/吨（-25）， 丙烯华东基差278元/吨（+48），丙烯华北基差4元/吨（+15）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR211美元/吨（+4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR53美元/吨（+6），进口利润-324元/吨（-48），厂内库存46560吨（+600）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率37%（-2.62%），生产利润-160元/吨（+5）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+0%），生产利润-276 元/吨（-30）；正丁醇开工率78%（+9%），生产利润236元/吨（+65）；辛醇开工率82%（+5%），生产利润487元/吨 （+18）；丙烯酸开工率79%（+0%），生产利润343元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-557元/吨（+44）； 酚酮开工率76%（-4%），生产利润-927元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端山东滨华PDH装置近期逐步提负荷，PDH亏损检修现象短 ...

【市场表现】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.63%报112.140元，10年期主力合约涨0.10%报108.005元， 5年期主力合约涨0.06%报105.840元，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.434元。银行间主要利率债收益率普 遍下行，截至17：00，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行3.8bp报2.2410%，50年期国债"25超 长特别国债03"收益率下行4.65bp报2.3810%，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行2.89bp报1.9031%。 【操作建议】 昨日期债全线上涨，其中超长债涨幅领先，主要或为前期超跌修复，行情驱动或主要由未经证实的利多 消息驱动，期货收盘后现券继续下行，全天30年活跃券利率下行4.2BP左右，因此今日期货可能有小幅 高开。我们认为短期上涨的趋势逻辑并不坚实，年末宽货币政策落地的概率不高，更可能留待明年一季 度施为，短期TL合约波动较大，行情更多可能为年末冲业绩的交易诉求主导，建议仍以震荡看待，如 参与交易建议快进快出及时止盈。10年期品种相对稳定，利率上限预期仍不会大幅偏离1.85%，T2603 关注107.6-107.8附近支撑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Urea new order transactions have slowed down, and spot prices have loosened. In the fourth - quarter, gas - based plant maintenance starts in December, while coal - based plant maintenance has gradually recovered. All new production capacities in 2025 have been put into operation, so the urea supply remains stable. Currently, off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The operating rates of compound fertilizers in the Northeast and Hubei regions continue to rise, and production scheduling in Shandong has increased, leading to an overall increase in the operating rate. Melamine plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded with rigid demand for procurement. As off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export procurement activities progress, urea enterprises' shipments have improved. Factory inventories have decreased, while port inventories have slightly increased. However, the subsequent procurement pace may slow down. Currently, new order procurement has slightly slowed down. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement pace, the national off - season storage pace, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Urea Basis Structure - On December 8, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,646 yuan/ton (-27). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,690 yuan/ton (-30), and in Jiangsu it was 1,690 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was 44 yuan/ton (-3), in Henan was 44 yuan/ton (+7), and in Jiangsu was 44 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. II. Urea Output - As of December 8, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.82% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 billion tons (-73.4 million), and the port sample inventory was 0.105 billion tons (+5 million) [1]. III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 8, 2025, the urea production profit was 160 yuan/ton (-30), and the export profit was 859 yuan/ton (-52). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.53% (+3.47%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+0.86%) [1]. IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - No specific data summary other than the export profit of 859 yuan/ton (-52) on December 8, 2025, is provided. V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 8, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.53% (+3.47%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+0.86%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.35 days (+0.70) [1]. VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 8, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 billion tons (-73.4 million), and the port sample inventory was 0.105 billion tons (+5 million) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate and correct, and close the cash - and - carry arbitrage positions opportunistically. - Inter - delivery: Wait and see. - Inter - commodity: None [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea trading strengthened again after a slight price correction. The start - up of compound fertilizers in Northeast China is gradually increasing, and production scheduling in Shandong and Hubei has increased. The start - up of melamine has risen with rigid demand for procurement. The off - season storage has gradually entered the market. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose, and the gas - head maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Supported by reserve demand and increased compound fertilizer start - up, urea enterprises' shipments improved, factory inventories decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. The export quota news improved the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. The report suggests a range - bound and slightly stronger trend for unilateral trading, a wait - and - see approach for inter - period trading, and no suggestion for inter - variety trading [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1654 yuan/ton (+24). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1630 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1620 yuan/ton (-10). The basis in Shandong was - 24 yuan/ton (-24), in Henan was - 24 yuan/ton (-34), and in Jiangsu was - 34 yuan/ton (-34) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of November 26, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 26, 2025, the urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1004 yuan/ton (-8). In October, 1200000 tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600000 tons, which improved the year - end export expectation [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 34.61% (+4.29%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.65 days (-0.47) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73300), and the port sample inventory was 100000 tons (+18000) [1]

专题报告 2025 年 11 月 27 日 铂钯期货上市首日交易策略 核心观点及策略 套利策略：多铂空钯 ⚫ 短期策略：铂钯均可开盘做多 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 投资咨询号：Z0017785 何天 ⚫ 铂、钯期货上市之后，铂钯将有了"中国价格"，以人民 币计价的铂、钯期货合约消除了企业的汇率风险敞口，合 约的交割设计也更贴合国内产业特点，首次提出了海绵 状、粉状以及锭状产品三种形态交割，为工业用户提高了 套保效率；期权也提供了更灵活的风险管理工具，企业可 以在锁定最大损失的同时保留收益空间。 ⚫ 铂钯供应均高度集中 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for various futures contracts in different sectors. 2) Core Views - The A-share market is in a repricing adjustment after the quarterly report release, with trading sentiment being cold and the direction unclear [2]. - Bond interest rates are expected to have a lower fluctuation range, and investors can consider appropriate long - positions on 10 - year Treasury bonds on dips [2]. - Precious metals are under pressure from liquidity tightening and a stronger dollar, with gold and silver showing different short - term trends [2]. - The shipping index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and long positions on the 12 - contract are recommended on dips [2]. - The steel and iron ore markets have complex supply - demand situations, with different trading strategies for each contract [2]. - The energy and chemical sector has diverse trends, with some products like MEG expected to decline and others having different trading opportunities [2]. - The agricultural product market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy details, with different trading suggestions for each product [2]. - Special and new energy products also have their own price trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the market's upward movement and profit - taking, there is a slight correction. It is recommended to wait and see as the direction is not clear [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's bond - buying scale is lower than expected. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Long positions on dips and positive arbitrage strategies are suggested [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold has short - term downward pressure but buying support. It can be bought on dips below 3900 dollars (900 yuan). Silver may fall to the previous low of 45 dollars (11000 yuan), and short - term observation is recommended [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Futures**: The container shipping index (European line) is short - term volatile, and long positions on the 12 - contract are recommended on dips [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore Futures**: For steel, a long - coal and short - coil strategy is recommended for the January 2026 contract. For iron ore, short positions are recommended on rallies for the 2601 contract, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is also suggested [2]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have limited rebound space, and short positions on rallies are recommended; MEG is expected to decline, and holding out - of - the - money call options and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage are suggested [2]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Products like soybeans, corn, and palm oil have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, long positions in the 2601 soybean contract should be held cautiously, and the palm oil may test the 8500 - yuan support [2]. - **Special and New Energy Futures**: Glass offers short - long opportunities by observing the spot market; industrial silicon and polysilicon have price fluctuation ranges, and lithium carbonate is expected to be weak [2].