18A良率仍是关键 从业务结构看，英特尔2025财年第四财季呈现出"核心增长、基础承压"的分化特征。 增长动力主要来自数据中心与人工智能（DCAI）业务。该板块在第四财季的营收达47.4亿美元，同比 增长9%，超过44.2亿美元的市场预期，环比增幅达到15%。Granite Rapids、Sapphire Rapids等服务器芯 片需求强劲，叠加与英伟达合作定制Xeon+NVLink芯片的协同效应，成为财报最大亮点。 凯投银行在研报中明确指出，超大规模云服务商对数据中心的强劲需求，将持续为DCAI业务提供增长 支撑，并将英特尔评级从"行业标配"上调至"增持"，目标价60美元/股。 造成第四财季营收同比下滑的核心因素是客户端计算组（CCG）业务，该板块全年营收322亿美元，同 比下降3%。一方面，受PC市场整体复苏乏力影响；另一方面，外界认为是英特尔自身产能错配——此 前将产能向新一代Gen6 CPU倾斜，却未能匹配市场对成熟Gen4、Gen5产品的需求，导致部分订单流 失。此外，18A先进制程良率虽每月提升，但尚未达到行业领先水平，新增产能释放缓慢，进一步制约 了整体营收规模。 2026年1月23日，英特尔（ ...

Core Viewpoint - Intel, once a dominant player in the CPU market, faced significant challenges leading to a $2.92 billion loss in Q2 2025, but is poised for a turnaround due to strategic investments and internal reforms [5][10][12]. Group 1: Current Challenges - Intel reported a net loss of $2.92 billion in Q2 2025, with a gross margin dropping below 30%, indicating severe distress in its core business [5]. - AMD's EPYC series has captured over 40% market share, leading to a 15% year-over-year decline in Intel's Xeon orders due to its lag in 10nm technology [5][6]. - The company's foundry business has been unprofitable, with a market share of less than 3% and quarterly losses exceeding $1 billion [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Turnaround - In August 2025, the U.S. government invested $8.9 billion for a 9.9% stake in Intel, becoming its largest shareholder, signaling a commitment to U.S. chip independence [9]. - Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel, agreeing to collaborate on developing integrated GPU and CPU solutions, marking a significant shift in the competitive landscape [9]. - Intel's cash reserves increased to $30.9 billion following these investments, providing a financial cushion for future operations [9]. Group 3: Internal Reforms - CEO Pat Gelsinger initiated a major restructuring, laying off 35,000 employees to reduce annual operating costs by $23.3 billion, reallocating funds towards advanced process technology and AI development [10][11]. - The company reintroduced a "20% free time" policy for engineers to foster innovation, leading to significant improvements in process technology yields [10]. - Intel is shifting towards a more open business model, securing orders from Apple for low-end M-series chips and exploring further collaborations [11]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - In 2026, Intel faces a "happy trouble" with a chip shortage driven by unexpected demand for server CPUs, leading to increased analyst ratings [12]. - However, there are concerns about supply chain mismatches and price increases driven by OEMs rather than Intel's pricing strategy [12][14]. - The sustainability of the current demand surge is questioned, as rising storage prices may lead to a market correction [14]. Group 5: Broader Implications - Intel's recovery is seen as a case study in aligning corporate strategy with national interests and industry trends, emphasizing the importance of internal transformation [16]. - The company's future performance will be closely watched, particularly regarding the mass production of its 18A process technology and ongoing competition with AMD [16][17].