在集团层面，大摩对其2025年第四季度增长预测下调至4.4%，对今年全年增长预测下调至7.6%。因 此，大摩将集团今明两年每股盈利预测分别下调0.6%及2.7%。 对于Prada品牌，大摩对其第四季度零售有机销售增长(OSG)预测略微上调至同比持平，又认为该品牌的 势头仍然相当稳健。对于MiuMiu品牌，大摩将其第四季同比增长预测下调至17%，意味着相较于第三 季度28.6%的增长将持续放缓。但依然预计MiuMiu会保持强劲势头和优异表现，因大摩的渠道调查和与 专家的交流表明，MiuMiu的产品吸引力依然坚挺且强劲。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，即将到来的创意浪潮对普拉达(01913)构成风险，随着备受 推崇的创意总监纷纷加盟具备竞争力的品牌，大摩难以看到Prada和MiuMiu如何保持增长动能。即使相 信该集团维持良好管理且股价便宜，但尚未见到集团在未来几个月内会跑赢其他竞争者的原因;故将目 标价从53港元微降至51港元;评级"与大市同步"。 根据其渠道调查，尽管对Prada品牌在第四季度可能出现的持续性基本面改善感到鼓舞，但预计普拉达 集团将是少数在第四季度报告总销售额和零售销售额均出现持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - Prada's recent quarterly performance shows a slowdown in revenue growth, particularly for the Prada brand, which has recorded negative growth for the first time since 2020, while Miu Miu's growth is normalizing despite being faster than peers [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Prada's stock fell over 4%, currently trading at 46.6 HKD with a trading volume of 28.27 million HKD [1] - Citigroup noted that revenue growth for the second and third quarters has slowed to unit numbers, indicating a concerning trend for the brand [1] - The group's profit margin is expected to remain at 23.6% in 2024, which is approximately 350 basis points lower than historical highs [1] Group 2: Brand Insights - The Miu Miu brand continues to grow faster than competitors, but its growth is also stabilizing [1] - Significant investments in advertising, manufacturing, IT infrastructure, and retail network expansion are required for Miu Miu, which may suppress profit margin expansion [1] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - Prada's CFO, Andrea Bonini, stated that the company plans to become a dual-listed entity, with a six-month window to consider the listing in Italy, but no commitments have been made yet [1] - The luxury goods market is currently stable, with positive conditions in the U.S. market, although caution is advised due to potential market bubbles fostering overly optimistic sentiments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Prada's recent performance shows a slowdown in revenue growth, particularly for the Prada brand, which has recorded negative growth for the first time since 2020, while Miu Miu's growth is normalizing despite being faster than peers [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Prada's stock fell over 4%, currently down 3.32% at HKD 46.6, with a trading volume of HKD 28.27 million [1] - Citigroup noted that revenue growth for the second and third quarters has slowed to unit numbers, indicating a concerning trend for the Prada brand [1] - The group's profit margin is expected to remain at 23.6% in 2024, which is approximately 350 basis points lower than historical highs [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - The Miu Miu brand continues to grow faster than its competitors, but its growth rate is beginning to normalize [1] - Significant investments in advertising, manufacturing, IT infrastructure, and retail network expansion are required for Miu Miu, which may suppress profit margin expansion [1] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - Prada's CFO, Andrea Bonini, stated that the company plans to pursue a dual listing, with a six-month consideration period for the Italian listing, but no commitments have been made yet [1] - The luxury goods market is currently stable, with positive conditions in the U.S. market, although caution is advised due to potential market bubbles fostering overly optimistic sentiments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Prada's revenue growth has slowed to single digits in Q2 and Q3, with the Prada brand experiencing its first negative growth since 2020 [1] - Miu Miu brand continues to grow faster than peers, but its growth is normalizing, requiring significant investment in advertising, manufacturing, IT infrastructure, and retail network expansion, which may suppress profit margin expansion [1] - The target price for the company has been raised from HKD 45 to HKD 53.8, while maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] Group 2 - The overall sales forecast for the group has been increased by approximately 1% for 2025, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been reduced by about 1% due to adverse currency factors [1] - Operating expenses are expected to normalize, leading to EBIT and earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 being adjusted upwards by 3%, 1%, and 2% respectively [1] - The profit margin for 2024 is projected to remain at 23.6%, which is approximately 350 basis points lower than historical highs [1]

Company Update - Prada Group reported a 3Q25 revenue update with a year-on-year growth of +9% at constant exchange rates (CER), or +4% at reported exchange rates, reaching €1.33 billion, slightly above FactSet consensus estimate of €1.31 billion [1] - Retail revenue for 3Q25 showed a decline in Prada brand revenue (-1%) but improved compared to 2Q25 (-4%), while Miu Miu brand revenue grew by +29% despite a high year-on-year base (3Q24: +105%) [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan, revenue grew by +10%, with improved sales trends in mainland China, while the Americas saw a +20% growth, accelerating from +14% in 2Q25 [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, group revenue increased by +9%, driven by same-store full-price sales, with limited contribution from retail space expansion, impacted by approximately 260 basis points of foreign exchange headwinds [1] Comments - The company has ample room for revenue growth and margin expansion through category expansion, including jewelry and beauty products, which are still in early growth stages for both Prada and Miu Miu [1] - Continuous innovation in leather goods, particularly for Miu Miu, may lead to potential best-selling products [1] - Store network upgrades are focused on creating high-specification, high-efficiency flagship stores while streamlining long-tail stores [1] - Caution is advised regarding changes in the competitive landscape, as new designer products from brands like Dior, Chanel, Gucci, and Celine are set to launch in 1H26 [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to foreign exchange headwinds, revenue and EBIT forecasts for 2025 have been reduced by 6.1% and 6.9% to €5.731 billion and €1.359 billion, respectively [2] - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 7.5% to €880 million, reflecting higher financial costs associated with additional loans from the Versace acquisition [1][2] - For 2026, revenue forecasts have been cut by 9.6% to €6.155 billion, with EBIT and net profit forecasts reduced by 13.2% and 14.1% to €1.492 billion and €976 million, respectively, due to increased competition and rising costs [2] - The valuation has shifted to be based on the 2026 net profit forecast, maintaining an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 75, corresponding to a 21.1x 2026 P/E ratio, with a 62.0% upside potential from the current stock price [2]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports that Prada's Q3 sales increased by 8.5% at constant exchange rates, slightly above market consensus, with retail sales growth of 7.6% aligning with expectations, driven primarily by the volatile wholesale channel [1] - Prada remains one of the fastest-growing groups, nearly matching Hermès' growth rate and significantly outpacing LVMH and Kering [1] - Morgan Stanley has lowered its earnings per share forecast for Prada for FY 2025-2026 by 0.6% but maintains a target price of HKD 53, while keeping a "market perform" rating due to observed investment opportunities in the luxury sector [1] Financial Performance - The forecast for Prada's revenue growth for 2025 has been revised down to 6.6% from an original estimate of 8.5%, with an expected EBITDA margin of 23.4% [2] - Prada's brand revenue is projected to decline by 1.3% year-on-year in Q4, while Miu Miu's revenue growth is slightly adjusted to 30% [2] Market Concerns - Market reaction to Prada's performance is expected to be muted, as its revenue only "barely" meets market expectations, leading to anticipated price fluctuations in the coming days or months [1] - Three main concerns are highlighted: increased competition in the creative field with the influx of new creative directors, potential disadvantages for Prada and Miu Miu as fashion trends shift from minimalism to maximalism, and the dilution of group profit margins due to the acquisition of Versace, which is projected to incur significant operating losses in the coming years [1][2]

Core Insights - Prada Group reported a net revenue of €4.07 billion for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, representing an 8.9% year-over-year increase [1] Revenue Performance - Retail sales for the Prada brand decreased by 2% year-over-year when calculated at constant exchange rates, while Miu Miu's revenue surged by 41% [1] - Overall retail sales net revenue grew by 9.3%, accounting for 89.6% of total revenue [1] Regional Performance - Retail sales in the Asia-Pacific region increased by 10.4%, with a significant improvement in sales trends in mainland China during the third quarter [1] - The Americas market experienced a growth of 14.8%, continuing to accelerate in the third quarter [1] - The European market saw a growth of 6.3%, supported by stable local demand [1] - Japan and the Middle East recorded growth rates of 2.6% and 21.1%, respectively [1]

Core Insights - Prada Group reported an unaudited revenue of €4.07 billion for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth at constant exchange rates [1] Revenue Performance - Retail sales net revenue increased by 9% year-over-year at constant exchange rates [1] - Prada brand retail sales net revenue decreased by 2% year-over-year [1] - Miu Miu brand retail sales net revenue increased significantly by 41% year-over-year [1] Regional Sales Growth - All regions experienced growth in retail sales net revenue, with the following increases: - Middle East: +21% [1] - Americas: +15% [1] - Asia-Pacific: +10% [1] - Europe: +6% [1] - Japan: +3% [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Prada Group recorded net revenues of €4.1 billion in the first nine months of 2025, representing a 9% increase compared to the same period last year at constant FX [9] - Retail sales increased by 8% in Q3 compared to the prior year, while wholesale sales rose by 4% in the first nine months and 19% in Q3 [9][10] - Royalties grew by 11% over the periods, supported by eyewear and beauty segments [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Prada's performance was resilient, with a -2% change in the first nine months, while Miu Miu reported a significant growth of 41% overall and 29% in Q3 [10] - Church's also returned to double-digit growth in the quarter [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Asia Pacific saw a 10% growth in the first nine months, with Q3 showing similar trends [11] - Europe experienced a 6% increase, while the Americas had a 15% growth in the nine months, accelerating to 20% in Q3 [11] - The Middle East delivered a solid performance with a 21% increase in the nine months [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to creative leadership and plans to continue investing in creativity and desirability [13] - There is a focus on enhancing retail excellence and optimizing store locations, with plans to close underperforming stores while expanding in key areas [29][86] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a plateau in growth in China, with expectations of gradual improvement [20][71] - The company is optimistic about the upcoming holiday period and expects to see continued improvement in Q4 [13][14] Other Important Information - The company is cautious about store expansion, particularly for Prada, while Miu Miu has seen successful store openings [29] - The impact of exchange rates on revenue was noted, with a negative effect of approximately 260 basis points in the first nine months [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Versace integration - Management clarified that the transaction is not yet closed and is awaiting authorizations [18] Question: Current trading and improvement drivers - Management indicated that the recent improvements are consistent with previous trends, with a plateau observed in China and a strong local customer base in Japan [20] Question: Wholesale trends in Q3 - Management confirmed there were no exceptional factors affecting wholesale trends [22] Question: Cluster trends for key Prada brands - All clusters showed positive growth, with local transactions driving improvements across regions [28] Question: Store expansion plans for Prada and Miu Miu - Miu Miu has successfully opened new stores, while Prada is taking a more cautious approach to expansion [29] Question: Margin expectations for the upcoming year - Management did not provide specific guidance but indicated that they are on track to meet previous margin improvement targets [36][41] Question: FX headwinds for H2 and 2026 - Management acknowledged potential FX headwinds but emphasized that hedging strategies would mitigate impacts for 2025 [42] Question: Aspirational customer trends - Management noted weak signals of improvement but emphasized that the current environment is a plateau [53] Question: Pricing policy for 2026 - Management plans to maintain a similar pricing strategy as in previous years, with adjustments based on regional differences [108] Question: Growth by product category in Q3 - Leather goods showed significant growth for Prada, while ready-to-wear remained the cornerstone for Miu Miu [110]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Prada Group recorded net revenues of €4.1 billion in the first nine months of 2025, representing a 9% increase compared to the same period last year at constant foreign exchange rates [7] - Retail sales increased by 8% in Q3 compared to the prior year, while wholesale sales rose by 4% in the first nine months and 19% in Q3 [8][9] - Royalties grew by 11% over the periods, supported by eyewear and beauty segments [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Prada's performance was resilient, with a -2% change in the first nine months, while Miu Miu reported a significant growth of 41% for the same period and 29% in Q3 [9][10] - Church's also returned to double-digit growth in the quarter [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Asia Pacific saw a 10% growth in the first nine months, with Q3 showing similar trends [10] - Europe experienced a 6% increase in retail sales over the nine months, while the Americas reported a 15% growth, accelerating to 20% in Q3 [10] - Japan's growth was modest at 3% over the nine months, with Q3 down 1% but showing improvement [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to maintaining its creative leadership and investing in desirability, with a focus on retail excellence and product innovation [12] - There is a cautious approach to store expansion for Prada, with plans to open 6-8 new stores while closing underperforming locations [23] - The company aims to balance its product offerings across different price points and categories, with a focus on high-value segments [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a plateau in growth in China, with expectations of gradual improvement rather than a return to previous high growth rates [17][47] - The company is optimistic about the upcoming holiday season and expects continued improvement in sales [12] - Management emphasized the importance of the last six weeks of the year for overall performance [12] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing a normalization in traffic levels, which is impacting sales performance [5] - The impact of foreign exchange rates is expected to be significant in Q4, with a negative effect of approximately 260 basis points in the first nine months [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Initial priorities for Versace integration - The transaction is not yet closed, and the company is awaiting necessary authorizations [16] Question: Current trading and improvement in Q3 - Management observed a plateau in China, with some positive signs during holidays, but overall conditions remain stable [17] Question: Wholesale trends in Q3 - There were no exceptional factors affecting wholesale trends; the growth was consistent [19] Question: Cluster trends for key Prada brands - All clusters showed positive growth, with local transactions driving improvements [21] Question: Store expansion plans for Prada and Miu Miu - Miu Miu has seen successful store openings, while Prada is taking a more cautious approach to expansion [23] Question: Margin expectations for the upcoming year - Management did not provide specific guidance on margins but indicated that they are on track to meet previous targets [27] Question: FX headwinds for H2 - Hedging strategies are expected to mitigate FX impacts for 2025, but 2026 may face challenges [31] Question: Pricing policy for next year - The company plans to maintain its pricing strategy with regular adjustments [68] Question: Growth by category in Q3 - Miu Miu's ready-to-wear category and Prada's leather goods showed the most significant growth [70]