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美护商社行业周报:提振消费专项行动方案出台,1-2月社零环比回暖-2025-03-18
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-03-18 06:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the consumer discretionary sector, including Proya, Betaini, and others [5][9]. Core Insights - The consumer discretionary sector is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in retail sales and positive market performance in sub-sectors like beauty care and travel [1][3][20]. - The implementation of the "Consumption Boost Action Plan" by the central government aims to enhance consumer spending through various initiatives, including income support and consumption upgrades [2][33]. - Retail sales for January-February 2025 reached 8.37 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, with online retail sales also showing a positive trend [20][27]. Market Performance - During the week of March 10-14, 2025, the Shenyin Wanguo indices for retail, social services, and beauty care increased by 2.50%, 3.71%, and 8.18% respectively, outperforming the broader market indices [12][14]. - Specific sub-sectors such as personal care products, hotel and restaurant services, and cosmetics saw significant gains, with increases of 7.79%, 5.14%, and 4.87% respectively [1][14]. Key Events and Announcements - The government has outlined 30 key tasks in the "Consumption Boost Action Plan," focusing on income growth, service quality improvement, and enhancing the consumption environment [2][33]. - Local initiatives, such as the implementation of a child-rearing subsidy in Hohhot, are expected to stimulate domestic demand further [2][33]. - Companies like Aimeike are actively pursuing acquisitions to expand their market presence, indicating a strategic focus on growth [34]. Retail Sales Breakdown - In January-February 2025, retail sales of goods totaled 7.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while catering revenue reached 0.98 trillion yuan, growing by 4.3% [20][24]. - The online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 1.86 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [27][31]. Sector-Specific Performance - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has positively impacted various categories, with significant growth in retail sales for communication equipment (26.2%), cultural and office supplies (21.8%), and home appliances (10.9%) [31][32]. - In the optional consumption category, cosmetics, gold and silver jewelry, and clothing saw retail sales growth of 4.4%, 5.5%, and 3.3% respectively [31][32].