Core Viewpoint - The focus of the iron ore market in 2025 is on the supply side, with expectations of a gradual increase in imports and domestic production, despite some challenges in the market dynamics [2][92]. Supply - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's iron ore imports showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a year-on-year increase of 8.76 million tons (1.5%) to 114 million tons, and the total for the year is expected to exceed 124.9 million tons [2][52]. - Domestic iron ore production is projected to reach 29.5 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 0.71%, but is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter as safety and environmental pressures ease [90]. - The iron ore pricing benchmark will be adjusted from 62% iron content to 61%, indicating a potential shift in the pricing system [91]. Demand - Domestic demand for iron ore in 2025 is estimated at 149.8 million tons, an increase of 5.997 million tons (+4.23%) year-on-year, with expectations for stable demand in 2026 [92]. - The real estate sector is expected to see a slowdown in declines, while infrastructure investment is projected to grow year-on-year, and the manufacturing sector remains positive [92]. Inventory - As of early December 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 154 million tons, with a trend towards increased inventory due to a combination of slow production increases and resilient demand [93]. - The iron ore supply-demand balance is expected to shift towards a more relaxed state in 2026, with the possibility of continued inventory accumulation, although short-term tightness may occur due to weather and other factors [93].

Report Summary 1. Company Production and Sales Data - In Q3 2025, Vale's production was 94.4, with a 12.9% quarterly increase and a 3.8% year - on - year increase; sales were 86.0, with an 11.2% quarterly increase and a 5.1% year - on - year increase [5] - BHP Billiton (100% equity) had a production of 70.3 in Q3 2025, a - 9.3% quarterly decrease and a - 1.8% year - on - year decrease; sales were 70.6, a - 8.0% quarterly decrease and a - 1.3% year - on - year decrease [5] - Rio Tinto (100% equity) had a production of 84.1 in Q3 2025, a 0.5% quarterly increase and a 0.0% year - on - year increase; shipping volume was 84.3, a 5.5% quarterly increase and a - 0.2% year - on - year decrease [5] - FMG's shipping volume in Q3 2025 was 49.7, a - 10.0% quarterly decrease and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [5] 2. Product - Specific Data Iron Ore Products in 2025 Q3 - PB block: production was 17.7, with a 24% year - on - year increase and a 58% quarterly increase [17] - PB fines: production was 33.4, with a 25% year - on - year increase and a 55% quarterly increase [17] - Robe River block: production was 1.3, with a 14% year - on - year increase and a - 4% quarterly decrease [17] - Robe River fines: production was 2.2, with a - 13% year - on - year decrease and a - 15% quarterly decrease [17] - Yandi fines: production was 10.8, with a - 9% year - on - year decrease and a 1% quarterly increase [17] - SP10 block: production was 2.9, with a - 49% year - on - year decrease and a - 65% quarterly decrease [17] - SP10 fines: production was 3.2, with a - 70% year - on - year decrease and a - 75% quarterly decrease [17] Another Set of Iron Ore Products in 2025 Q3 - Newman: production was 13.72, with a 3% year - on - year increase and a - 9% quarterly decrease [23] - Area C: production was 29.42, with a 2% year - on - year increase and a - 10% quarterly decrease [23] - Yandi: production was 3.5, with a - 21% year - on - year decrease and a - 9% quarterly decrease [23] - Jinbuba: production was 15.38, with an - 8% year - on - year decrease and a - 7% quarterly decrease [23] Other Iron Ore Products in 2025 Q3 - Tieqiao: production was 2.1, with a 31% year - on - year increase and a - 13% quarterly decrease [26] - West Pilbara fines: production was 4, with an 11% year - on - year increase and a 14% quarterly increase [26] - King fines: production was 3.3, with an - 11% year - on - year decrease and a - 6% quarterly decrease [26] - Mixed fines: production was 18.3, with a 6% year - on - year increase and a - 15% quarterly decrease [26] - FMG block: production was 2.3, with a 10% year - on - year increase and a 28% quarterly increase [26] - Super Special fines: production was 19.6, with a 1% year - on - year increase and a - 13% quarterly decrease [26]

Group 1: Production, Sales, and Shipping Volume - In Q2 2025, FMG's production was 83.6, a 23.6% increase from Q1 2025 and a 3.7% increase from Q2 2024; sales were 77.3, a 16.9% increase from Q1 2025 but a 3.1% decrease from Q2 2024 [7] - In Q2 2025, for another data set, production was 77.5, a 14.3% increase from Q1 2025 and a 0.9% increase from Q2 2024; sales were 76.7, a 14.8% increase from Q1 2025 and a 1.1% increase from Q2 2024 [7] - In Q2 2025, for yet another data set, production was 83.7, a 19.9% increase from Q1 2025 and a 5.3% increase from Q2 2024; shipping volume was 79.9, a 13.0% increase from Q1 2025 but a 0.5% decrease from Q2 2024; FMG's shipping volume was 55.2, a 19.7% increase from Q1 2025 and a 2.8% increase from Q2 2024 [7] Group 2: Product Data (PB and Others) - In Q2 2025, PB block was 11.2, with a -10% year - on - year change and a 14% quarter - on - quarter change; PB powder was 21.5, with a -13% year - on - year change and a 14% quarter - on - quarter change [15] - In Q2 2025, Robe River block was 1.4, with a 4% year - on - year change and a 20% quarter - on - quarter change; Robe River powder was 2.6, with a -15% year - on - year change and an 18% quarter - on - quarter change [15] - In Q2 2025, Yangdi powder was 10.6, with a -6% year - on - year change and a 14% quarter - on - quarter change; SP10 block was 8.3, with a 64% year - on - year change and a 3% quarter - on - quarter change; SP10 powder was 12.5, with a 52% year - on - year change and a 9% quarter - on - quarter change [15] Group 3: Other Product Data - In Q2 2025, Newman was 15.07, with a 5% year - on - year change and a 26% quarter - on - quarter change; Area C was 32.82, with a 13% year - on - year change and an 18% quarter - on - quarter change [22] - In Q2 2025, Yangdi was 3.85, with a -27% year - on - year change and a 1% quarter - on - quarter change; Jinbuba was 16.6, with a -14% year - on - year change and a 1% quarter - on - quarter change [22] Group 4: More Product Data - In Q2 2025, Tieqiao was 2.4, with a 300% year - on - year change and a 60% quarter - on - quarter change; Western Pilbara powder was 3.5, with a 192% year - on - year change and a 3% quarter - on - quarter change [25] - In Q2 2025, King powder was 3.5, with a 6% year - on - year change and a -13% quarter - on - quarter change; Mixed powder was 21.5, with a 4% year - on - year change and a 24% quarter - on - quarter change [25] - In Q2 2025, FMG block was 1.8, with no year - on - year change and a 0% quarter - on - quarter change; Super Special powder was 22.6, with a -19% year - on - year change and a 26% quarter - on - quarter change [25]