SPDR黄金股票ETF

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黄金踩下急刹车,多头仓位骤减,分析师警告:走势已与基本面“脱节”!
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-28 08:36
在上周盘中创下3500美元的纪录高位之后,金价目前已经回调了超过6%,有分析认为,部分原因是有迹象表明一些贸易紧张局势可能正在缓解。 特朗普贸易战引发的黄金狂热可能有些过了,期权市场、资金流向、技术面等多项指标发出预警信号,都在暗示金价回调的风险上升。 报道指出,上周,SPDR黄金股票ETF的期权交易突破130万份合约,达到史无前例的水平。同时,对该ETF下跌进行对冲的成本处于自8月以来的 最低水平,而隐含波动率却激增,这是一种不寻常的模式。 除此之外,野村证券研究还列出其他两个关键的警示信号,包括: 1、"美联储综合预期资本开支指数"最近跌破-4。数据显示,当该指数跌破-4时,黄金在随后2个月的表现往往不佳。 巴克莱策略师Stefano Pascale表示,特朗普4月2日宣布"对等关税"之后黄金看涨期权的飙升,导致黄金偏斜度指标倒挂,再加上对冲基金多头仓位 骤减,以及金价近期回调,都是短期内对金价持谨慎态度的理由。 Pascale并补充说,黄金的走势与美元和实际利率等"基本驱动因素"已经"脱节",且技术面释放涨势过度的信号。 不止技术指标释放警示信号 对于巴克莱策略师提及的黄金技术面出现涨势过度的信号,广发 ...
华尔街到陆家嘴精选丨美国消费数据利空 美储联会救市吗?美股上周强势反弹可持续吗?黄金快速回调就是建仓良机?美国放松自动驾驶监管 特斯拉机会几何?
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-04-28 00:39
Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook - The final consumer confidence index for April in the U.S. is 52.2, a significant drop from 57 in March, marking one of the lowest levels since the late 1970s [1] - Consumers expect an average inflation rate of 4.4% over the next 5-10 years, the highest since 1991, with a one-year inflation expectation of 6.5%, the highest since 1981 [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's financial stability report indicates rising asset valuation risks and high U.S. Treasury yields, with global trade risks identified as the top threat to financial stability [1] Group 2: Stock Market Performance and Predictions - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator signaling a potential new upward cycle, historically leading to a 100% success rate of gains in the following 12 months [3] - Despite the rebound, analysts caution that the market may face volatility due to macro uncertainties, particularly regarding trade negotiations [3][4] - Bank of America suggests that the rebound may not be sustainable unless three conditions are met: a trade agreement, a Fed rate cut, and resilient consumer spending [3][4] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, with a record outflow of $1.27 billion from the SPDR Gold ETF, the largest single-day outflow since 2011 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the current pullback in gold prices may present a buying opportunity, advocating for a 10% allocation in gold within investment portfolios [5] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive despite short-term risks, as inflation persists and the Fed maintains a neutral policy stance [5][7] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - Novo Nordisk achieved a significant legal victory, allowing the FDA to take action against the production of generic versions of its diabetes and weight loss drugs, which had previously faced shortages [8] - The court ruling is seen as a positive development for Novo Nordisk, which has faced stock price declines due to competitive pressures and underwhelming new product performance [8] - The market for weight loss drugs is now highly competitive, with Novo Nordisk's main competitor being Eli Lilly, posing ongoing challenges for the company's stock performance [8] Group 5: Autonomous Driving Regulations - The U.S. Department of Transportation announced a major relaxation of regulations for autonomous vehicles, streamlining the accident reporting process and facilitating the commercial rollout of self-driving cars [10] - This regulatory change is particularly beneficial for Tesla, which plans to launch its Cybercab service in Texas, and may enhance the testing and deployment of autonomous vehicles [10] - Despite an 18% rebound in Tesla's stock, concerns remain regarding the company's performance metrics and the influence of CEO Elon Musk's political activities on stock volatility [10][11]