Amazon (NasdaqGS:AMZN) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsAndy Jassy - CEOBrian Nowak - Managing DirectorBrian Olsavsky - CFODave Fildes - VP of Investor RelationsDoug Anmuth - Head of US Internet Equity ResearchEric Sheridan - Partner and Managing DirectorMark Mahaney - Senior Managing DirectorConference Call ParticipantsMichael Morton - Senior Research AnalystRoss Sandler - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystOperatorThank you for standing by. Good day, ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $213.4 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, excluding foreign exchange impacts [5][28] - Operating income was $25 billion, which included special charges that reduced operating income by $2.4 billion [28][29] - Trailing twelve-month free cash flow was $11.2 billion [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - AWS revenue grew to $35.6 billion, with a growth rate of 24% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in 13 quarters [7][35] - North America segment revenue was $127.1 billion, up 10% year-over-year, while international segment revenue was $50.7 billion, up 11% year-over-year [30] - Advertising revenue reached $21.3 billion, growing 22% year-over-year [23][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company saw worldwide paid units grow by 12% year-over-year, the highest quarterly growth rate in 2025 [30] - The grocery segment achieved over $150 billion in gross sales, establishing the company as a significant player in the grocery market [19] - Same-day delivery for Prime members increased by nearly 70% year-over-year [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its capabilities in AI, chips, and quick commerce, aiming to build a more meaningful business [5][17] - Investments in AWS and custom silicon are expected to drive long-term returns on invested capital [41][43] - The company plans to open over 100 new Whole Foods Market Stores and expand grocery delivery services [19][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the demand for AWS services and the potential for AI to transform customer experiences [44][46] - The company is optimistic about the growth of its Trainium and Graviton chips, which are expected to enhance price performance and drive revenue [50][52] - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining competitive pricing and improving customer experience in retail [38][70] Other Important Information - The company achieved its fastest-ever delivery speeds for Prime members while reducing costs to serve [33] - The introduction of new features like "Add to Delivery" has significantly improved customer convenience [21][22] - The company is actively working on expanding its AI capabilities and partnerships, including with OpenAI [61][62] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Insights on long-term return on invested capital - Management discussed the ongoing investments in AWS and AI, emphasizing the strong demand and potential for long-term returns [41][42] Question: Update on Project Rainier and financial guardrails - Management confirmed strong growth in Trainium and clarified the ongoing commitment to AI investments while maintaining financial discipline [50][54] Question: Changes in the AI market and relationships with companies like OpenAI - Management described the AI market as barbelled, with significant opportunities for enterprises to leverage AI, and expressed optimism about extending partnerships with AI companies [57][62] Question: Retail business efficiency and investment areas - Management outlined the dual focus on expanding selection and improving delivery speed while also identifying areas for cost savings [72][74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $213.4 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, excluding foreign exchange impacts [5][29] - Operating income was $25 billion, which included special charges that reduced operating income by $2.4 billion [29] - Trailing twelve-month free cash flow was $11.2 billion, reflecting strong growth [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - AWS revenue grew to $35.6 billion, with a growth rate of 24% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in 13 quarters [6][35] - The North America segment revenue was $127.1 billion, up 10% year-over-year, while the international segment revenue was $50.7 billion, up 11% year-over-year [30] - The company saw a 12% increase in worldwide paid units, the highest quarterly growth rate in 2025 [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expanded its grocery business significantly, achieving over $150 billion in gross sales, making it a large grocer [19] - Same-day delivery for Prime members increased by nearly 70% year-over-year, with significant adoption of perishable grocery services [20][33] - Advertising revenue grew 22% year-over-year, reaching $21.3 billion in the quarter [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on AI, chips, and quick commerce as key growth areas, with strong demand already observed [5][6] - Investments in AWS and custom silicon are expected to drive long-term returns on invested capital [41][44] - The company plans to expand its grocery offerings and improve delivery speeds, aiming to enhance customer experience [19][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the unpredictability of results due to various external factors, including economic conditions and customer demand [4] - The company remains optimistic about the future, particularly in AI and cloud services, expecting continued strong demand [44][46] - Management emphasized the importance of customer experience and operational efficiency as key drivers for long-term value creation [39] Other Important Information - The company plans to invest approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures, predominantly in AWS [17] - The launch of Amazon Leo aims to provide connectivity in underserved areas, with significant interest from enterprise customers [27][37] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on long-term return on invested capital - Management discussed the strong demand for AI services and the expected long-term returns from current investments, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiencies [41][42][44] Question: Update on Project Rainier and financial guardrails - Management expressed excitement about the growth of Trainium and its applications, noting that the project is progressing well and has significant interest [51][52][56] Question: Changes in the AI market and relationships with companies like OpenAI - Management described the AI market as barbelled, with significant opportunities in enterprise production workloads and expressed optimism about extending partnerships with AI companies [59][60][64] Question: Retail business efficiency and investment areas - Management highlighted ongoing investments in expanding selection and improving delivery speeds while also identifying areas for cost efficiencies [73][75]

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) present distinct investment profiles in the AI cloud sector, with NBIS focusing on high growth and direct exposure to AI infrastructure demand, while AMZN offers stability and diversification through its established AWS platform [1][2] Group 1: Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) - Nebius operates in a supply-constrained AI infrastructure market, targeting a contracted power capacity increase to 2.5 gigawatts by 2026 from 1 gigawatt, with 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt expected to be operational by the end of 2026 [3] - The company has secured significant long-term contracts with Microsoft, valued between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion, and with Meta, up to $3 billion, with revenue contributions anticipated to begin in Q4 2025 [4][9] - Nebius is expanding its global data center footprint, planning to enhance existing facilities in the U.K., Israel, and New Jersey, while targeting $7–$9 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 2026 [6][9] - The company has raised its capital expenditure outlook from approximately $2 billion to about $5 billion for 2025, which increases execution risk if revenue growth does not align with capital-intensive strategies [7] Group 2: Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - Amazon continues to lead in e-commerce and cloud computing, with innovations like AI-powered shopping assistants enhancing customer engagement and driving sales [10] - AWS remains a key growth driver, offering extensive infrastructure and AI-focused services that simplify the deployment of AI models, reinforcing Amazon's leadership in cloud-based AI [11][12] - Amazon's substantial investments in AI infrastructure, including custom chips and AI clusters, position the company to meet rising demand for AI workloads, although these investments also strain financial resources [13] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Over the past month, NBIS shares have increased by 6.3%, while AMZN stock has risen by 2.8% [14] - Valuation analysis indicates that Nebius is currently overvalued, while Amazon is considered undervalued, with respective Value Scores of F and B [15] - Analysts have significantly revised earnings estimates upward for NBIS, while there has been a marginal downward revision for AMZN [20][21] - In terms of Zacks Rank, NBIS holds a Rank 3 (Hold), whereas AMZN has a Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting that AMZN may be a more favorable investment at this time [21]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of Fal.ai as a revolutionary player in the AI infrastructure space, particularly focusing on its ability to provide significantly faster and cost-effective inference solutions for developers, addressing the challenges posed by major cloud providers [2][4][5]. Background - The article highlights the paradox of the AI era, where the rapid development of large models is met with high costs and complexities in deploying them for real-world applications, particularly in inference, which constitutes a significant ongoing expense for developers [2]. Product Analysis - Fal.ai is positioned as a "performance special zone" that offers an order of magnitude improvement in inference speed and cost efficiency compared to mainstream solutions, with claims of achieving up to 10 times faster inference speeds through proprietary technology [4][5]. - The platform currently hosts over 600 production-grade models and serves more than 2 million registered developers, processing over 100 million inference requests daily, indicating strong market adoption [4]. Financial Performance - Fal.ai is projected to reach an annualized revenue run rate of approximately $95 million by July 2025, a staggering increase of about 4650% compared to $2 million in July 2024, showcasing its rapid growth trajectory [5][14]. Competitive Advantage - The company differentiates itself from cloud giants like AWS and Google by focusing on speed and specialization, allowing it to optimize inference for new open-source models within 24 hours, creating a competitive lead of 12-18 months [7]. - Fal.ai aims to evolve from a mere compute resource provider to an indispensable application development platform by becoming the workflow engine that connects and orchestrates various generative AI capabilities [7][8]. Team Background - The team comprises experienced professionals from major tech companies, emphasizing a belief in elegant software architecture to navigate the challenges posed by dominant players in the GPU space [8][9][10]. Funding and Valuation - Fal.ai has demonstrated remarkable capital attraction, with a valuation exceeding $4 billion as of October 2025, reflecting strong market confidence in its strategic direction and technological moat [12][13]. - The funding timeline aligns closely with its revenue growth, indicating investor recognition of its unique value proposition in the "inference as a service" domain [14]. Long-term Considerations - The article raises questions about the sustainability of Fal.ai's business model, particularly regarding profitability and potential challenges from cloud giants and market commoditization of inference services [16][17]. - Fal.ai's true competitive moat lies in its ability to rapidly convert cutting-edge open-source models into stable, scalable production-grade APIs, which is a more complex capability than merely providing speed [17].

Core Viewpoint - The investment case for Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) is shifting from e-commerce dominance to focusing on AWS acceleration, AI-driven market share gains, and a disciplined margin story as it heads into 2026 [1]. Group 1: AWS Growth and AI Integration - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is expected to see a re-acceleration in growth as enterprise customers increase AI workloads and resume large-scale migrations, supported by Amazon's expanding AI offerings [3]. - AI is transitioning from being a margin drag to a growth driver within AWS, despite potential short-term fluctuations due to capacity timing [4]. Group 2: AI Impact Beyond AWS - The AI narrative extends beyond AWS, with improvements in logistics, fulfillment, and advertising efficiency, which lowers service costs and enhances engagement within the Prime ecosystem [5]. - Automation and robotics are increasingly stabilizing operating costs, particularly in North America, which is crucial for balancing growth against rising AI-related capital expenditures [5]. Group 3: Margin Expansion and Financial Outlook - Margin expansion is highlighted across both North America and international operations, driven by regionalization, inventory placement, same-day delivery infrastructure, and advertising growth, indicating structural efficiencies [6]. - Despite significant investments in AI, a meaningful inflection in free cash flow is anticipated in 2026 and 2027, supported by disciplined spending, improving margins, and a higher contribution from AWS [7].

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformative impact of Amazon Web Services (AWS) on the sports industry, particularly through its collaboration with the NBA, which aims to revolutionize how sports data is understood and utilized [6][21]. Group 1: Technological Innovations in Sports - AWS is leveraging AI and cloud technology to enhance sports analytics, moving from traditional statistics to a deeper understanding of game dynamics [5][6]. - The NBA's partnership with AWS will introduce new advanced metrics for the 2025-26 season, including Defensive Box Score, Shot Difficulty Index, and Gravity metrics, which provide a more nuanced view of player contributions [7][9]. - The use of computer vision and machine learning allows for real-time analysis of player movements, capturing data at a frequency of 60 times per second [6][10]. Group 2: Enhanced Fan Experience - The Sports Forum features immersive experiences like the NBA VR viewing area, which allows fans to experience games from unique perspectives while accessing advanced data analytics [5][10]. - AWS's Nova model is transforming content production in sports, enabling automated reporting and multi-language translations to enhance fan engagement [15][16]. - AI-driven features like expected goals (xGoals) and skill role cards are designed to make the viewing experience more informative and engaging for fans [17][20]. Group 3: Broader Implications for the Sports Industry - The integration of AI in sports is seen as a testing ground for advanced technologies, with potential applications extending beyond sports to fields like healthcare and automotive design [21][22]. - The article suggests that the rigorous demands of sports analytics can lead to robust technological advancements that may benefit various industries in the future [21][23].

Core Insights - Both Amazon and Microsoft are expected to perform well in 2026, with Amazon having a larger growth opportunity in its cloud computing segment [1][16]. Amazon - Amazon's most profitable segment is its cloud computing unit, Amazon Web Services (AWS), which leads the market share [5]. - The driving force for cloud computing is AI, with Amazon providing solutions like Bedrock and SageMaker to help customers develop AI models [6]. - AWS revenue growth accelerated to 20% in Q3, with the company indicating potential for more growth if not for capacity constraints [8]. - Amazon has launched Project Rainier, a significant data center cluster for AI research, and signed a $38 billion deal with OpenAI for computing power [9]. - Amazon's e-commerce business is leveraging AI and robotics for operational efficiency and is experiencing growth in its high-gross-margin sponsored ad business [10]. Microsoft - Microsoft's Azure is the fastest-growing cloud computing service, with a revenue increase of 40% last quarter, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of over 30% growth [11]. - Microsoft has a strategic partnership with OpenAI, securing a 27% stake and exclusive access to its AI models, which is expected to drive growth [12]. - Microsoft has also partnered with Nvidia and Anthropic, committing to $30 billion of compute capacity from Azure [14]. - Other segments of Microsoft, such as productivity and business processes, have seen revenue growth of 17%, while the "intelligent cloud" segment grew by 28% year over year [15]. Conclusion - The demand for cloud computing is expected to remain strong, with both companies positioned for growth. However, Amazon is seen as having a greater opportunity to accelerate growth in AWS, which could positively impact its stock narrative [16].

Core Insights - RTX Corporation's unit, Raytheon, has partnered with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to enhance satellite data processing and mission control operations, aiming to bolster customers' space capabilities for national security [1][10] - The collaboration will leverage AWS's AI and machine learning services to provide scalable cloud-based solutions, ultimately reducing mission costs and increasing operational flexibility [2][4] Group 1: Collaboration Details - Raytheon will utilize AWS to help customers lower mission costs, enhance flexibility, and expedite capability delivery while ensuring responsible AI development and strong security [2] - The partnership will offer customers improved decision-making and operational coordination through combined Raytheon and AWS solutions, including advanced mission data processing and management at edge locations [3][10] - The collaboration will also support scalable mission management using AWS serverless technologies, allowing customers to securely and efficiently add new capabilities [4] Group 2: Industry Growth Prospects - The modern space industry is rapidly expanding due to technological advancements, rising satellite demand, and increased investment in space infrastructure, creating significant opportunities for companies with expertise in space systems [5] - RTX is well-positioned to benefit from this growth as it is actively involved in satellite operations and supports critical space missions, managing satellite networks and utilizing data for various applications [6][7] Group 3: Opportunities for Other Defense Stocks - Other defense companies, such as Northrop Grumman, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin, are also expected to benefit from the expanding space market, with Northrop Grumman focusing on launch vehicles and propulsion systems [8][11] - Boeing's long-term earnings growth rate is projected at 31.3%, while Lockheed Martin's is at 12.4%, indicating strong growth potential in the sector [11][12] Group 4: RTX Stock Performance - RTX shares have increased by 45.1% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry average growth of 21.9% [13]

Core Viewpoint - The AI race is intensifying, with Amazon leading the charge through significant investments in AI infrastructure, aiming to maintain its competitive edge in the cloud services market [1][2]. Investment and Financials - Amazon plans to end 2025 with approximately $125 billion in AI spending, outpacing other cloud providers, and has already announced a $50 billion deal for 2026 [2]. - AWS generated $33 billion in revenue in Q3 2023, contributing 66% to Amazon's total operating income, with an operating margin of 34% [4]. Market Position - AWS holds a 29% market share in the cloud services sector, significantly ahead of competitors like Microsoft's Azure at 20% and Alphabet's Google Cloud at 13% [2][3]. - Amazon's first-mover advantage in the AI space necessitates ongoing investment to sustain its leadership position [4]. Government Contracts and Capabilities - AWS services include segments for U.S. government agencies, with plans to invest $50 billion in enhancing capabilities for classified information management and supercomputing [5]. - The expansion includes adding 1.3 gigawatts of AI and data center capacity, improving access to AI tools and large language models [5][6]. Growth Potential - Amazon's AI business is experiencing triple-digit growth and is already a multibillion-dollar segment, indicating strong future potential [9]. - Long-term defense contracts present lucrative opportunities for Amazon, further bolstered by partnerships with companies like Nvidia, which supports AWS infrastructure [10].