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中银国际:AI大模型演进路径逐渐清晰 算力或供不应求
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-02-25 06:17
智能体方面,2026年初,名为OpenClaw的开源智能体工具在开发者社区和各大技术论坛引起较大轰 动,它不再是过去那个只会陪聊的聊天机器人,而是进化成了能够接管电脑、协助人类完成具体办公任 务的"办公搭子",初步展示了生产力大变革的形象。多模态方面,字节发布的SeeDance2.0让大模型具 有了影视行业的生产力,从此前"生成一段画面"走向"完成一个作品",生成15秒视频的可用率从此前 20%提升至90%,提升效率降低成本,有望推动漫剧等行业进入规模化发展阶段。 中银国际认为,随着大模型能力提升,这两条演进路径逐步清晰:Agent通过理解用户意图、拆解复杂 任务,搭载MCP和Skills等工具,快速覆盖商业办公、法律和金融领域应用;多模态有望通过生成仿真 数据,进一步用于加速具身智能等场景。 算力涨价成为新迹象,凸显算力供应瓶颈,算力产业链有望持续受益 中银国际发布研报称,2026年春节前后,国内外主要AI模型纷纷完成重大升级。随着大模型能力提 升,智能体与多模态两条演进路径逐步清晰。与此同时,智谱(02513)节前发布GLM Coding Plan价格调 整函,这一涨价预示着优秀的大模型企业不缺需求,有望 ...
大模型演进路径逐渐清晰,算力或供不应求
Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing significant upgrades in major models both domestically and internationally around the Spring Festival period in 2026, indicating a transformative phase in the sector [2][3]. Domestic AI Model Updates - Several domestic AI models have been updated recently: - January 27: Moonlight released the K2.5 model - February 12: Zhipu released the GLM-5 model - February 13: MiniMax released the MiniMax M2.5 model - February 14: ByteDance released the Doubao 2.0 model - February 16: Alibaba released the Qianwen 3.5 model [3]. International AI Model Updates - Internationally, major AI companies have also completed significant model updates: - OpenAI released the GPT-5.3-Codex model designed for real-time programming, capable of generating over 1000 tokens per second - Anthropic launched the Claude Opus4.6/Claude Sonnet4.6 models, supporting 1 million tokens context for better execution of intelligent planning tasks - Google introduced the Gemini3.1Pro model, which has doubled its inference performance [3]. Advancements in AI Applications - The capabilities of AI models are evolving, with the emergence of intelligent agents and multimodal applications: - The OpenClaw open-source intelligent agent tool has gained attention for its ability to assist with specific office tasks, moving beyond simple chat functionalities - ByteDance's SeeDance2.0 has improved video generation efficiency, increasing the usable rate of 15-second videos from 20% to 90%, potentially driving the anime and drama industries towards large-scale development [4]. Pricing Trends in Computing Power - A price increase in computing power has been observed, indicating a supply bottleneck in the computing power industry: - Zhipu's GLM Coding Plan has seen a price adjustment, including a 30% or more increase in package prices, reflecting rising market demand and user engagement [5]. Investment Recommendations - The computing supply chain is expected to experience sustained growth, with investment opportunities identified in: - Computing and storage: Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Moore Threads, Muxi, Zhaoyi Innovation, Baiwei Storage, Jucheng - Advanced manufacturing: SMIC, Huahong, Jinghe Integration, China Resources Micro, Chipone, Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics - Optical communication: Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, Xinyi Sheng, Changfei Optical Fiber, Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Huaxin Electronics, Jiepte, Dazhu Laser [6][7].