阿根廷政府宣布，在10月31日之前，或出口总额达到70亿美元之前，暂免大豆（此前26%关税）、豆油（24%）、豆粕（24%）、玉米（9.5%）和小麦（9.5%）等农产品出口关税。路透援引贸易商消息报道，在阿根廷宣布免税后，中国买家已从阿根廷预订了至少10船大豆，为第四季度建立库存。另有贸易商称15船。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):上周米莱在接受记者采访时坦言“市场正处于恐慌状态”。过去一个月，阿根廷债券股票外汇全线下跌，资本外流速度明显加快。丰业银行资本市场经济主管Derek https://t.co/Du2qsFUeeQ ...

阿根廷政府宣布，在10月31日之前，或出口总额达到70亿美元之前，暂免大豆（此前26%关税）、豆油（24%）、豆粕（24%）、玉米（9.5%）和小麦（9.5%）等农产品出口关税。路透援引贸易商消息，在阿根廷宣布免税后，中国买家已从阿根廷预订了至少10船大豆，为第四季度建立库存。另有贸易商称15船。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):上周米莱在接受记者采访时坦言“市场正处于恐慌状态”。过去一个月，阿根廷债券股票外汇全线下跌，资本外流速度明显加快。丰业银行资本市场经济主管Derek https://t.co/Du2qsFUeeQ ...

Core Insights - The domestic oilseed and oil futures market showed mixed performance on September 5, with canola and palm oil prices rising over 1% while soybean meal experienced a slight decline [1][2] Price Movements - Canola futures rose by 1.57% to 5225.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures increased by 1.34% to 9502.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal futures decreased by 0.10% to 3060.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures rose by 0.84% to 8418.00 CNY/ton [1] Futures Market Data - The opening and closing prices for various contracts on September 5 were as follows: - Soybean oil: Opened at 8340.00 CNY, closed at 8348.00 CNY - Palm oil: Opened at 9382.00 CNY, closed at 9376.00 CNY - Canola oil: Opened at 9725.00 CNY, closed at 9713.00 CNY - Soybean meal: Opened at 3043.00 CNY, closed at 3063.00 CNY - Canola meal: Opened at 2514.00 CNY, closed at 2524.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of September 4, warehouse receipts showed the following changes: - Soybean oil: Increased by 1284 contracts to 16344 contracts - Palm oil: Increased by 200 contracts to 639 contracts - Canola oil: Increased by 235 contracts to 6879 contracts - Soybean meal: Increased by 3750 contracts to 19375 contracts - Canola meal: Decreased by 210 contracts to 4846 contracts [3] Basis Data - The basis data as of September 4 indicated a phenomenon of "inverted futures" for several contracts, where spot prices exceeded futures prices: - Canola oil: Spot price 9858.33 CNY, futures price 9713 CNY, basis 145 CNY - Canola meal: Spot price 2631.67 CNY, futures price 2524 CNY, basis 107 CNY - Palm oil: Spot price 9400 CNY, futures price 9376 CNY, basis 24 CNY - Soybean one: Spot price 4305 CNY, futures price 3966 CNY, basis 339 CNY - Soybean meal: Spot price 3084 CNY, futures price 3063 CNY, basis 21 CNY - Soybean oil: Spot price 8428 CNY, futures price 8348 CNY, basis 80 CNY [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market experienced a mixed performance on August 26, with palm oil futures declining over 1% while peanut futures saw a slight increase of 0.31% [1] Price Movements - As of August 26, the main futures prices are as follows: - Palm oil down 1.14% at 9504.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal down 0.64% at 3090.00 CNY/ton - Rapeseed meal down 0.39% at 2549.00 CNY/ton - Peanut up 0.31% at 7802.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of August 25, warehouse receipt data indicates: - Soybean oil futures unchanged at 15760 contracts - Palm oil futures unchanged at 0 contracts - Rapeseed oil futures unchanged at 3987 contracts - Soybean meal futures unchanged at 10925 contracts - Rapeseed meal futures decreased by 187 contracts to 8101 contracts - Soybean futures decreased by 115 contracts to 12082 contracts [3] Basis and Basis Rate - The basis and basis rates for various commodities are as follows: - Rapeseed oil: Basis 116, Basis Rate 1.16% - Rapeseed meal: Basis 61, Basis Rate 2.33% - Palm oil: Basis 24, Basis Rate 0.25% - Soybean: Basis 302, Basis Rate 7.02% - Soybean meal: Basis 10, Basis Rate 0.32% - Soybean oil: Basis 96, Basis Rate 1.12% [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's reported and adjusted net income for Q2 2025 was $8 million, resulting in earnings per diluted share of $0.23, compared to adjusted net income of $39 million or $1.15 per share in 2024 [14] - Revenues increased slightly due to the addition of Skyland, despite overall lower commodity prices [14] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $65 million, down from $98 million in 2024 [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agribusiness segment reported adjusted pretax income of $17 million, down from $33 million in 2024, with adjusted EBITDA of $46 million compared to $56 million in 2024 [18][20] - The Renewables segment generated pretax income of $10 million, down from $23 million in 2024, with EBITDA of $30 million compared to $52 million last year [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted improved fertilizer results due to increased volume and margin driven by high corn plantings [9] - The wheat harvest was completed, and facilities are prepared for increased corn volumes expected at harvest [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has acquired its partner's share of four ethanol plants, which is expected to be immediately accretive to EPS and align reported EPS and EBITDA [12][13] - The company is focused on pursuing additional opportunities in ethanol and renewable feedstocks, with plans to improve efficiencies and lower carbon intensity [24][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for the second half of the year, anticipating improvements in the Agribusiness segment as the fall harvest approaches [23] - The company is evaluating additional growth projects and acquisitions aligned with its strategy, with a target of achieving a run rate EPS of approximately $4.3 per share by 2026 [27][28] Other Important Information - The company generated cash flow from operations of $43 million in Q2, down from $89 million in 2024, but continues to demonstrate positive cash flows throughout the ag cycle [16] - Capital spending for Q2 was $49 million, up from $29 million in 2024, with expectations to reach $200 million for the year [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did the timing of the ethanol transaction correlate with regulatory tailwinds? - Management indicated that while they have been looking at ethanol capacity for eight quarters, the recent regulatory changes did not materially affect the transaction timing [32] Question: Can you characterize the non-strategic exits in the Agribusiness segment? - Management noted a financial impact of about $7 million from minority investments and a few million dollars from the sale of underperforming facilities [34][35] Question: What is the outlook for merchandising and storage in the second half of the year? - Management expects improved opportunities for both merchandising and storage due to a large corn crop [38] Question: Why was acquiring the balance of the ethanol assets the right move now? - Management stated that acquiring the remaining 50% of the ethanol plants allows for better capital deployment and full earnings benefits without integration risk [42] Question: What is the updated outlook for ethanol margins? - Management believes the second half of 2025 will be better than the first half, with opportunities to drive more free cash flow from the plants [49] Question: How does the Port of Houston investment work with lower soybean meal prices? - Management explained that the price of soybean meal will drive it to export parity, making the investment competitive despite lower prices [53] Question: What was the revenue contribution from Skyland in the quarter? - Management reported revenue of about $200 million from Skyland in each of the first two quarters, with a revised EBITDA outlook for the full year of $25 million to $30 million [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter reported earnings per share (EPS) was $2.61 compared to $0.48 in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant increase [13] - Adjusted EPS was $1.31 in the second quarter versus $1.73 in the prior year, indicating a decrease [14] - Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was $376 million in the quarter compared to $519 million last year [14] - The company maintained its full-year adjusted EPS outlook of approximately $7.75 for the legacy standalone Bunge, excluding the second half earnings from the corn milling business due to its sale [12][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Processing results in South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, were better than expected due to large soybean crops and farmer selling [11][15] - Fine and Specialty Oils were negatively impacted by uncertainty related to U.S. Biofuel policy, affecting performance across all regions [15] - Milling results improved in North America but were offset by lower results in South America [15] - Corporate expenses decreased primarily due to performance-based compensation [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 margins in Brazil improved year over year, driven by a record bean crop, while margins in Argentina also showed improvement due to strong farmer selling [31] - In Europe, Q2 margins were good but down slightly from a strong prior year, with expectations of tougher conditions in the second half due to competing imports [33] - Q2 margins in China improved but were still slightly down from the prior year, with expectations for lower margins in the second half [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The completion of the combination with Viterra is seen as a pivotal moment, creating a premier agribusiness solutions company [5][10] - The company is focused on capturing cost savings and commercial opportunities post-merger, with a strong emphasis on integration planning [9][10] - The strategy includes ongoing portfolio optimization and leveraging synergies from the merger to enhance operational efficiencies [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a strong path ahead with the integration of Viterra and the potential for operational synergies [8][26] - The company is navigating a complex macro environment but believes its diversified asset base positions it well to capture value [24][25] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations for improved processing results, particularly in Q4, driven by better crush margins [22][59] Other Important Information - The company generated $693 million of adjusted funds from operations year to date, with $560 million of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [19] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.1 times at the end of the second quarter, indicating a strong liquidity position with $8.7 billion in committed credit facilities [20] - Following the merger with Viterra, S&P upgraded the company's credit rating to A minus, reflecting an improved business risk profile [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on soy crush performance and outlook? - Management noted that Q2 outperformance was driven by rising vegetable oil values and lower bean costs, with expectations for improved margins in Q4 [30][31] Question: What is the outlook for the SREs and their impact? - Management expects a decision on SREs in August or September, with a belief that the administration understands their potential impact on RVO [35][36] Question: Can you clarify the combined company guidance including Viterra? - Management emphasized the strategic rationale for the merger and expressed confidence in the combined company's ability to navigate market challenges [42][45] Question: What is the outlook for the oil segment? - The oil segment was impacted by lower energy demand and uncertainty around biofuels policy, but management expects improvement in the second half [61] Question: How are the organic investments progressing? - Key projects like Morristown and Destrehan are on track, with commissioning expected in Q4 and early next year [64][66] Question: What is the outlook for the milling side in the U.S.? - Demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by good economics in the animal protein segment, with North America enhancing export capabilities [70][71] Question: How does the company view the interplay between SBO and other seed oils? - Management sees opportunities in offering a full suite of seed oils to customers, adapting to market demands [86] Question: What are the implications of recent global trade developments? - Management noted that China's actions reflect a focus on food security and a shift towards new import options, indicating a dynamic global market [92][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter reported earnings per share (EPS) was $2.61 compared to $0.48 in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant increase [13] - Adjusted EPS was $1.31 in the second quarter versus $1.73 in the prior year, indicating a decrease [14] - Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was $376 million in the quarter compared to $519 million last year [14] - The company maintained its full-year adjusted EPS outlook of approximately $7.75 for the legacy standalone Bunge, excluding the second half earnings from the corn milling business due to its sale [12][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Processing results in South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, were better than expected due to large soybean crops and farmer selling [11] - Fine and Specialty Oils were negatively impacted by uncertainty related to U.S. Biofuel policy [12] - In merchandising, improved performance in global grains and oils was offset by lower results in financial services and ocean freight businesses [15] - Milling results were higher in North America but lower in South America [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 margins in Brazil improved year over year due to a record bean crop, while Argentina also saw better margins driven by strong farmer selling [32] - In Europe, Q2 margins were good but down slightly from a strong prior year, with expectations of tougher conditions in the second half due to competing imports [34] - In China, Q2 margins improved but were still slightly down from the prior year, with expectations for lower margins in the second half [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The completion of the combination with Viterra is seen as a pivotal moment, creating a premier agribusiness solutions company [5] - The company is focused on capturing cost savings and commercial opportunities post-merger, with a strong emphasis on integration planning [6][10] - The strategy includes ongoing portfolio optimization and leveraging a global approach to risk management [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential commercial synergies from the Viterra integration, highlighting the importance of a balanced global footprint [25][26] - The company is navigating a complex macro environment but believes it is well-positioned to serve customers across the value chain [25][26] - The outlook for the second half of the year includes expectations for improved processing margins, particularly in Q4, despite challenges in merchandising and specialty oils [58] Other Important Information - The company generated $693 million of adjusted funds from operations year to date, with $560 million of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [17] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.1 times at the end of the second quarter, indicating a strong liquidity position [20] - Following the merger with Viterra, S&P upgraded the company's credit rating to A minus, reflecting an improved business risk profile [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Soy crush performance and fundamentals outlook - Management noted that Q2 outperformance was driven by rising vegetable oil values and lower bean costs, with expectations for improved margins in Q4 [31][32] Question: Concerns about Viterra earnings base - Management acknowledged challenges during the transition but expressed confidence in the combined company's potential and the strategic rationale behind the merger [42][46] Question: Implications of U.S. crush margins on global markets - Management indicated that the combined company is well-positioned to adapt to changing market conditions and emphasized the importance of a balanced global footprint [52][53] Question: Shareholder returns and buyback plans - The company has $800 million remaining under its $2 billion buyback commitment and plans to execute on this soon [103][105] Question: Outlook for refining margins and competition - Management expects refining margins to moderate over time but believes domestic soybean oil will remain competitive due to supportive policies [76][82]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with canola meal futures rising while other oil futures decline as of June 30, indicating volatility in the sector [1]. Price Movements - Canola meal futures increased by 1.14% to 2572.00 CNY/ton - Canola oil futures decreased by 0.43% to 9421.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures fell by 0.69% to 8308.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures dropped by 0.32% to 7976.00 CNY/ton [1][2]. Futures Market Data - Soybean oil opened at 7994.00 CNY, closing at 8002.00 CNY - Palm oil opened at 8366.00 CNY, closing at 8366.00 CNY - Canola oil opened and closed at 9466.00 CNY - Soybean meal opened at 2942.00 CNY, closing at 2938.00 CNY - Canola meal opened at 2558.00 CNY, closing at 2543.00 CNY [2]. Warehouse Receipt Data - Soybean oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 18882 lots - Palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 470 lots to 470 lots - Canola oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 300 lots - Soybean meal warehouse receipts rose by 9610 lots to 35561 lots - Canola meal warehouse receipts decreased by 1141 lots to 21544 lots [3]. Basis and Spot Prices - Canola meal spot price is 2475 CNY, with a futures price of 2509 CNY, resulting in a basis of -68 CNY and a basis rate of -2.75% - Palm oil spot price is 8586 CNY, with a futures price of 8366 CNY, resulting in a basis of 220 CNY and a basis rate of 2.56% - Soybean one spot price is 4295 CNY, with a futures price of 4144 CNY, resulting in a basis of 151 CNY and a basis rate of 3.52% - Soybean meal spot price is 2906 CNY, with a futures price of 2938 CNY, resulting in a basis of -32 CNY and a basis rate of -1.10% - Soybean oil spot price is 8254 CNY, with a futures price of 8002 CNY, resulting in a basis of 252 CNY and a basis rate of 3.05% [4].

Group 1: Coal Market Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a seasonal demand window, with daily consumption at 4.85 million tons as of June 5, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.5% [1] - The inventory available for use is at 24.4 days, down by 1.6 days week-on-week, indicating potential supply constraints [1] - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal is at 609 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.3% [1] - There is a concern about the possibility of a weak peak season due to increased rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, which could enhance hydropower output [1][12] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China economic consultation mechanism meeting from June 8 to 13 is crucial for assessing future trade dynamics, particularly regarding the 10% baseline tariff and semiconductor export restrictions [2][8] - The sensitivity of the commodity market to these discussions is high, especially for shipping and crude oil sectors [2][8] - The potential for a thaw in U.S.-China relations could lead to a rebound in previously declining commodities such as energy and chemicals [8] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [9][10] - Wage growth is at 3.9% year-on-year, indicating sustained consumer strength, but the overall economic outlook remains cautious due to downward revisions of previous employment data [9][10] - The interplay between rising import prices and wage growth may limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy flexibility, impacting both equity and commodity markets [10][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector is witnessing independent pricing dynamics, with pork prices exceeding 14 RMB/kg and Brazilian soybean prices rebounding [3][16] - The soybean market is currently in a critical growth season, with no immediate weather threats in the U.S. Midwest, suggesting limited upward pressure on prices [16] - The recent performance of soybean meal is driven by rising CNF prices from Brazil, supported by speculative buying from domestic oil mills [16] Group 5: Precious Metals - Silver is positioned for potential gains due to its dual industrial and monetary attributes, with supply constraints and demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [3] - The gold-silver ratio may continue to improve, but fiscal risks remain unresolved, keeping gold as a primary safe haven [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on the supply and demand of major oilseeds and oils, including export sales expectations of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, export forecasts of Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal, and inventory, production, and export conditions of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - It also shows the spot prices of various oilseeds and oils in different regions from May 28 to June 4, 2025 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs USDA Report Forecast - As of the week ending May 29, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 100,000 - 600,000 tons, with 100,000 - 500,000 tons for the 2024/25 season and 0 - 100,000 tons for the 2025/26 season [1]. - US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 200,000 - 700,000 tons, with 200,000 - 500,000 tons for the 2024/25 season and 0 - 200,000 tons for the 2025/26 season [1]. - US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 5,000 - 35,000 tons, with 5,000 - 25,000 tons for the 2024/25 season and 0 - 10,000 tons for the 2025/26 season [1]. Brazilian Export Forecast - Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to be 1.255 million tons, lower than 1.383 million tons in the same period last year and 1.42 million tons in May [1]. - Brazil is expected to export 110 million tons of soybeans in 2025, which would set a new record [1]. - Brazil's soybean meal exports in June are expected to be 129,000 tons, lower than 205,000 tons in the same period last year [1]. Malaysian Palm Oil Survey - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of May is expected to rise for the third consecutive month to 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production in May is expected to reach 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April [1]. - Palm oil product exports are expected to soar 17.9% to 1.3 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from May 28 to June 4, 2025 [2].