棕榈油期货仓单0手，环比上个交易日持平； 菜油期货仓单3987张，环比上个交易日持平； 豆粕期货仓单10925手，环比上个交易日持平； 菜粕期货仓单8101张，环比上个交易日减少187张； 豆一期货仓单12082手，环比上个交易日减少115手； 8月26日，国内期市油脂油料板块跌多涨少，棕榈油主力跌逾1%。截至目前，菜籽粕主力下跌0.39%， 报2549.00元/吨；棕榈油主力下跌1.14%，报9504.00元/吨；豆粕主力下跌0.64%，报3090.00元/吨；花生 主力上涨0.31%，报7802.00元/吨。 8月26日油脂油料期货价格行情 | 合约名称 | 开盘价 | 昨收价 | 昨结价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆油 | 8504.00 | 8488.00 | 8472.00 | | 棕榈油 | 9610.00 | 9582.00 | 9614.00 | | 菜籽油 | 9905.00 | 9891.00 | 9890.00 | | 豆粕 | 3122.00 | 3117.00 | 3110.00 | | 菜籽粕 | 2552.00 | 2547.00 | 2559. ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's reported and adjusted net income for Q2 2025 was $8 million, resulting in earnings per diluted share of $0.23, compared to adjusted net income of $39 million or $1.15 per share in 2024 [14] - Revenues increased slightly due to the addition of Skyland, despite overall lower commodity prices [14] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $65 million, down from $98 million in 2024 [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agribusiness segment reported adjusted pretax income of $17 million, down from $33 million in 2024, with adjusted EBITDA of $46 million compared to $56 million in 2024 [18][20] - The Renewables segment generated pretax income of $10 million, down from $23 million in 2024, with EBITDA of $30 million compared to $52 million last year [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted improved fertilizer results due to increased volume and margin driven by high corn plantings [9] - The wheat harvest was completed, and facilities are prepared for increased corn volumes expected at harvest [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has acquired its partner's share of four ethanol plants, which is expected to be immediately accretive to EPS and align reported EPS and EBITDA [12][13] - The company is focused on pursuing additional opportunities in ethanol and renewable feedstocks, with plans to improve efficiencies and lower carbon intensity [24][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for the second half of the year, anticipating improvements in the Agribusiness segment as the fall harvest approaches [23] - The company is evaluating additional growth projects and acquisitions aligned with its strategy, with a target of achieving a run rate EPS of approximately $4.3 per share by 2026 [27][28] Other Important Information - The company generated cash flow from operations of $43 million in Q2, down from $89 million in 2024, but continues to demonstrate positive cash flows throughout the ag cycle [16] - Capital spending for Q2 was $49 million, up from $29 million in 2024, with expectations to reach $200 million for the year [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did the timing of the ethanol transaction correlate with regulatory tailwinds? - Management indicated that while they have been looking at ethanol capacity for eight quarters, the recent regulatory changes did not materially affect the transaction timing [32] Question: Can you characterize the non-strategic exits in the Agribusiness segment? - Management noted a financial impact of about $7 million from minority investments and a few million dollars from the sale of underperforming facilities [34][35] Question: What is the outlook for merchandising and storage in the second half of the year? - Management expects improved opportunities for both merchandising and storage due to a large corn crop [38] Question: Why was acquiring the balance of the ethanol assets the right move now? - Management stated that acquiring the remaining 50% of the ethanol plants allows for better capital deployment and full earnings benefits without integration risk [42] Question: What is the updated outlook for ethanol margins? - Management believes the second half of 2025 will be better than the first half, with opportunities to drive more free cash flow from the plants [49] Question: How does the Port of Houston investment work with lower soybean meal prices? - Management explained that the price of soybean meal will drive it to export parity, making the investment competitive despite lower prices [53] Question: What was the revenue contribution from Skyland in the quarter? - Management reported revenue of about $200 million from Skyland in each of the first two quarters, with a revised EBITDA outlook for the full year of $25 million to $30 million [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter reported earnings per share (EPS) was $2.61 compared to $0.48 in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant increase [13] - Adjusted EPS was $1.31 in the second quarter versus $1.73 in the prior year, indicating a decrease [14] - Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was $376 million in the quarter compared to $519 million last year [14] - The company maintained its full-year adjusted EPS outlook of approximately $7.75 for the legacy standalone Bunge, excluding the second half earnings from the corn milling business due to its sale [12][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Processing results in South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, were better than expected due to large soybean crops and farmer selling [11][15] - Fine and Specialty Oils were negatively impacted by uncertainty related to U.S. Biofuel policy, affecting performance across all regions [15] - Milling results improved in North America but were offset by lower results in South America [15] - Corporate expenses decreased primarily due to performance-based compensation [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 margins in Brazil improved year over year, driven by a record bean crop, while margins in Argentina also showed improvement due to strong farmer selling [31] - In Europe, Q2 margins were good but down slightly from a strong prior year, with expectations of tougher conditions in the second half due to competing imports [33] - Q2 margins in China improved but were still slightly down from the prior year, with expectations for lower margins in the second half [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The completion of the combination with Viterra is seen as a pivotal moment, creating a premier agribusiness solutions company [5][10] - The company is focused on capturing cost savings and commercial opportunities post-merger, with a strong emphasis on integration planning [9][10] - The strategy includes ongoing portfolio optimization and leveraging synergies from the merger to enhance operational efficiencies [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a strong path ahead with the integration of Viterra and the potential for operational synergies [8][26] - The company is navigating a complex macro environment but believes its diversified asset base positions it well to capture value [24][25] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations for improved processing results, particularly in Q4, driven by better crush margins [22][59] Other Important Information - The company generated $693 million of adjusted funds from operations year to date, with $560 million of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [19] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.1 times at the end of the second quarter, indicating a strong liquidity position with $8.7 billion in committed credit facilities [20] - Following the merger with Viterra, S&P upgraded the company's credit rating to A minus, reflecting an improved business risk profile [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on soy crush performance and outlook? - Management noted that Q2 outperformance was driven by rising vegetable oil values and lower bean costs, with expectations for improved margins in Q4 [30][31] Question: What is the outlook for the SREs and their impact? - Management expects a decision on SREs in August or September, with a belief that the administration understands their potential impact on RVO [35][36] Question: Can you clarify the combined company guidance including Viterra? - Management emphasized the strategic rationale for the merger and expressed confidence in the combined company's ability to navigate market challenges [42][45] Question: What is the outlook for the oil segment? - The oil segment was impacted by lower energy demand and uncertainty around biofuels policy, but management expects improvement in the second half [61] Question: How are the organic investments progressing? - Key projects like Morristown and Destrehan are on track, with commissioning expected in Q4 and early next year [64][66] Question: What is the outlook for the milling side in the U.S.? - Demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by good economics in the animal protein segment, with North America enhancing export capabilities [70][71] Question: How does the company view the interplay between SBO and other seed oils? - Management sees opportunities in offering a full suite of seed oils to customers, adapting to market demands [86] Question: What are the implications of recent global trade developments? - Management noted that China's actions reflect a focus on food security and a shift towards new import options, indicating a dynamic global market [92][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter reported earnings per share (EPS) was $2.61 compared to $0.48 in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant increase [13] - Adjusted EPS was $1.31 in the second quarter versus $1.73 in the prior year, indicating a decrease [14] - Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was $376 million in the quarter compared to $519 million last year [14] - The company maintained its full-year adjusted EPS outlook of approximately $7.75 for the legacy standalone Bunge, excluding the second half earnings from the corn milling business due to its sale [12][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Processing results in South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, were better than expected due to large soybean crops and farmer selling [11] - Fine and Specialty Oils were negatively impacted by uncertainty related to U.S. Biofuel policy [12] - In merchandising, improved performance in global grains and oils was offset by lower results in financial services and ocean freight businesses [15] - Milling results were higher in North America but lower in South America [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 margins in Brazil improved year over year due to a record bean crop, while Argentina also saw better margins driven by strong farmer selling [32] - In Europe, Q2 margins were good but down slightly from a strong prior year, with expectations of tougher conditions in the second half due to competing imports [34] - In China, Q2 margins improved but were still slightly down from the prior year, with expectations for lower margins in the second half [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The completion of the combination with Viterra is seen as a pivotal moment, creating a premier agribusiness solutions company [5] - The company is focused on capturing cost savings and commercial opportunities post-merger, with a strong emphasis on integration planning [6][10] - The strategy includes ongoing portfolio optimization and leveraging a global approach to risk management [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential commercial synergies from the Viterra integration, highlighting the importance of a balanced global footprint [25][26] - The company is navigating a complex macro environment but believes it is well-positioned to serve customers across the value chain [25][26] - The outlook for the second half of the year includes expectations for improved processing margins, particularly in Q4, despite challenges in merchandising and specialty oils [58] Other Important Information - The company generated $693 million of adjusted funds from operations year to date, with $560 million of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [17] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.1 times at the end of the second quarter, indicating a strong liquidity position [20] - Following the merger with Viterra, S&P upgraded the company's credit rating to A minus, reflecting an improved business risk profile [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Soy crush performance and fundamentals outlook - Management noted that Q2 outperformance was driven by rising vegetable oil values and lower bean costs, with expectations for improved margins in Q4 [31][32] Question: Concerns about Viterra earnings base - Management acknowledged challenges during the transition but expressed confidence in the combined company's potential and the strategic rationale behind the merger [42][46] Question: Implications of U.S. crush margins on global markets - Management indicated that the combined company is well-positioned to adapt to changing market conditions and emphasized the importance of a balanced global footprint [52][53] Question: Shareholder returns and buyback plans - The company has $800 million remaining under its $2 billion buyback commitment and plans to execute on this soon [103][105] Question: Outlook for refining margins and competition - Management expects refining margins to moderate over time but believes domestic soybean oil will remain competitive due to supportive policies [76][82]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with canola meal futures rising while other oil futures decline as of June 30, indicating volatility in the sector [1]. Price Movements - Canola meal futures increased by 1.14% to 2572.00 CNY/ton - Canola oil futures decreased by 0.43% to 9421.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures fell by 0.69% to 8308.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures dropped by 0.32% to 7976.00 CNY/ton [1][2]. Futures Market Data - Soybean oil opened at 7994.00 CNY, closing at 8002.00 CNY - Palm oil opened at 8366.00 CNY, closing at 8366.00 CNY - Canola oil opened and closed at 9466.00 CNY - Soybean meal opened at 2942.00 CNY, closing at 2938.00 CNY - Canola meal opened at 2558.00 CNY, closing at 2543.00 CNY [2]. Warehouse Receipt Data - Soybean oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 18882 lots - Palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 470 lots to 470 lots - Canola oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 300 lots - Soybean meal warehouse receipts rose by 9610 lots to 35561 lots - Canola meal warehouse receipts decreased by 1141 lots to 21544 lots [3]. Basis and Spot Prices - Canola meal spot price is 2475 CNY, with a futures price of 2509 CNY, resulting in a basis of -68 CNY and a basis rate of -2.75% - Palm oil spot price is 8586 CNY, with a futures price of 8366 CNY, resulting in a basis of 220 CNY and a basis rate of 2.56% - Soybean one spot price is 4295 CNY, with a futures price of 4144 CNY, resulting in a basis of 151 CNY and a basis rate of 3.52% - Soybean meal spot price is 2906 CNY, with a futures price of 2938 CNY, resulting in a basis of -32 CNY and a basis rate of -1.10% - Soybean oil spot price is 8254 CNY, with a futures price of 8002 CNY, resulting in a basis of 252 CNY and a basis rate of 3.05% [4].

Group 1: Coal Market Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a seasonal demand window, with daily consumption at 4.85 million tons as of June 5, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.5% [1] - The inventory available for use is at 24.4 days, down by 1.6 days week-on-week, indicating potential supply constraints [1] - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal is at 609 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.3% [1] - There is a concern about the possibility of a weak peak season due to increased rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, which could enhance hydropower output [1][12] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China economic consultation mechanism meeting from June 8 to 13 is crucial for assessing future trade dynamics, particularly regarding the 10% baseline tariff and semiconductor export restrictions [2][8] - The sensitivity of the commodity market to these discussions is high, especially for shipping and crude oil sectors [2][8] - The potential for a thaw in U.S.-China relations could lead to a rebound in previously declining commodities such as energy and chemicals [8] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [9][10] - Wage growth is at 3.9% year-on-year, indicating sustained consumer strength, but the overall economic outlook remains cautious due to downward revisions of previous employment data [9][10] - The interplay between rising import prices and wage growth may limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy flexibility, impacting both equity and commodity markets [10][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector is witnessing independent pricing dynamics, with pork prices exceeding 14 RMB/kg and Brazilian soybean prices rebounding [3][16] - The soybean market is currently in a critical growth season, with no immediate weather threats in the U.S. Midwest, suggesting limited upward pressure on prices [16] - The recent performance of soybean meal is driven by rising CNF prices from Brazil, supported by speculative buying from domestic oil mills [16] Group 5: Precious Metals - Silver is positioned for potential gains due to its dual industrial and monetary attributes, with supply constraints and demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [3] - The gold-silver ratio may continue to improve, but fiscal risks remain unresolved, keeping gold as a primary safe haven [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on the supply and demand of major oilseeds and oils, including export sales expectations of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, export forecasts of Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal, and inventory, production, and export conditions of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - It also shows the spot prices of various oilseeds and oils in different regions from May 28 to June 4, 2025 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs USDA Report Forecast - As of the week ending May 29, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 100,000 - 600,000 tons, with 100,000 - 500,000 tons for the 2024/25 season and 0 - 100,000 tons for the 2025/26 season [1]. - US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 200,000 - 700,000 tons, with 200,000 - 500,000 tons for the 2024/25 season and 0 - 200,000 tons for the 2025/26 season [1]. - US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 5,000 - 35,000 tons, with 5,000 - 25,000 tons for the 2024/25 season and 0 - 10,000 tons for the 2025/26 season [1]. Brazilian Export Forecast - Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to be 1.255 million tons, lower than 1.383 million tons in the same period last year and 1.42 million tons in May [1]. - Brazil is expected to export 110 million tons of soybeans in 2025, which would set a new record [1]. - Brazil's soybean meal exports in June are expected to be 129,000 tons, lower than 205,000 tons in the same period last year [1]. Malaysian Palm Oil Survey - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of May is expected to rise for the third consecutive month to 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production in May is expected to reach 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April [1]. - Palm oil product exports are expected to soar 17.9% to 1.3 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from May 28 to June 4, 2025 [2].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.70 and total segment operating profit of $747 million for the quarter [5] - Trailing fourth quarter adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) was 7% and cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $439 million [5][24] - Overall cash flow from operations decreased compared to the prior quarter due to lower total segment operating profit [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit was $240 million, down 3% year-over-year [20] - The Nutrition segment revenues were $1.8 billion, down 1% year-over-year, while operating profit increased by 13% to $95 million [22][23] - The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment operating profit was $412 million, down 52% compared to the prior year quarter [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Ag Services sub-segment operating profit was $159 million, down 31% due to lower North American origination export volumes [17] - Global trade results were lower compared to the same quarter last year, largely due to negative timing impacts [17] - Equity earnings from the company's investment in Wilmar were $72 million, down 52% compared to the prior year quarter [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on cost savings of $500 million to $750 million over the next three to five years, including workforce reductions and a review of third-party consulting spend [9] - Strategic decisions include the closure of the Cursea, South Carolina crush facility and the exit from domestic trading operations in China and Dubai [10] - The company is advancing automation and digitization across its global manufacturing network to improve reliability and efficiency [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the team's ability to navigate an uncertain external landscape while focusing on execution and cost management [12][31] - The company remains cautious about the second half outlook for crush margin improvement due to current domestic crush replacement margins being below expectations [26] - Management highlighted the importance of clarity on Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) to support strong U.S. demand for crop-based vegetable oils [34] Other Important Information - The company returned $247 million to shareholders in the form of dividends during the quarter [25] - The Decatur East facility is expected to be fully operational by the end of the second quarter, with an anticipated impact of $25 million per quarter for Nutrition once fully operational [99] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for RVO and its impact on 2025 outlook - Management indicated that strong RVOs are crucial for the biofuel outlook and expect margins to improve in the second half of the year [40][41] Question: Specific RVO numbers and positive outcomes for ADM - Management mentioned that the industry requires approximately €25 billion in biomass-based biodiesel and conventional biodiesel to support internal consumption and export markets [51][52] Question: Strength in RPO despite a weak environment - Management acknowledged that while RPO was better in the short run, overall expectations remain lower due to biodiesel margin pressures and increased refining capacity [58][59] Question: Trade flow shifts and impact of tariffs - Management noted that the impact of tariffs has not been significant in Q1, with most products exempt from export tariffs to Mexico and Canada [64][66] Question: Signs of rationalization in the soy crush industry - Management speculated that the industry may see plant shutdowns when demand is low, but emphasized the importance of clarity on RPO mandates for future capacity [73][74] Question: Commercialization of Argentine crops - Management expects Argentine farmers to become more regular in commercializing crops as they take advantage of government tax benefits before they expire [79] Question: Volume growth expectations for Starches and Sweeteners - Management reiterated guidance for slightly lower volumes than last year, with some weakness noted in specific markets [82][84] Question: Ethanol margins and performance - Management highlighted good risk management in ethanol operations, with expectations for margins to improve over the year [90] Question: Contribution from Decatur once fully operational - Management confirmed that the Decatur plant's impact will be felt in the second half of the year, with an expected contribution of $25 million per quarter [99]

Core Insights - On April 25, the domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils saw significant increases, with palm oil and rapeseed oil rising over 2% [1] - As of the latest data, palm oil futures increased by 2.63% to 8428.00 CNY/ton, while rapeseed oil futures rose by 2.09% to 9564.00 CNY/ton [1] - Soybean meal futures decreased by 0.85% to 3029.00 CNY/ton, while soybean oil futures increased by 1.97% to 7988.00 CNY/ton [1] Price Movements - The opening and closing prices for various oilseed futures on April 25 are as follows: - Soybean oil: Opened at 7858.00 CNY, closed at 7834.00 CNY - Palm oil: Opened at 8250.00 CNY, closed at 8212.00 CNY - Rapeseed oil: Opened at 9392.00 CNY, closed at 9368.00 CNY - Soybean meal: Opened at 3055.00 CNY, closed at 3055.00 CNY - Rapeseed meal: Opened at 2721.00 CNY, closed at 2713.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Data - As of April 24, the warehouse receipts for various oilseed futures were reported as follows: - Soybean oil: 3735 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Palm oil: 0 contracts, unchanged - Rapeseed oil: 2719 contracts, unchanged - Soybean meal: 10600 contracts, unchanged - Rapeseed meal: 1000 contracts, unchanged - Soybean one: 4545 contracts, an increase of 308 contracts - Peanut: 1500 contracts, unchanged [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for various oilseed products are as follows: - Rapeseed oil: Spot price 9485 CNY, futures price 9368 CNY, basis 117 CNY, basis rate 1.23% - Palm oil: Spot price 9102 CNY, futures price 8212 CNY, basis 890 CNY, basis rate 9.78% - Soybean meal: Spot price 3596.67 CNY, futures price 3055 CNY, basis 541 CNY, basis rate 15.04% - Soybean oil: Spot price 8146 CNY, futures price 7834 CNY, basis 312 CNY, basis rate 3.83% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global recession expectation has cooled down due to the postponement of tariffs, but the geopolitical situation will become more complex in the medium and long term. The A - share market is expected to show a structural market with a stable index and style differentiation, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. - Precious metals prices may rebound in the short term due to the volatile tariff policies, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high of gold prices and the US March CPI data [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term as the global trade war enters a period of easing negotiations and the risk appetite of the global market has significantly recovered [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize as the market risk sentiment is released, and the overall supply - demand situation is still good, but attention should be paid to further tariff trends [8][9][10]. - Alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation as the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved, but there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter [11]. - Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity as the short - term market risk is quickly released with the loosening of Trump's tariff policy [12]. - Lead prices are expected to follow the London lead to stabilize and repair as the tariff risk eases [13]. - Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level as the global trade situation concern eases, and the tight pattern of tin mines in the second quarter is difficult to change [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation as the peak - season demand is weak and the high inventory drags down the spot market [16]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as the cost - support logic still exists although the fundamental outlook is bearish [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to be strong as the cost - increase logic of the increase in Indonesia's mineral royalty is about to be realized [18]. - Crude oil prices are mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but due to the volatile tariff policy, it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment eases and the fundamentals change little, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern [20]. - Iron ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment recovers and the supply - demand relationship changes little [21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as the panic sentiment eases and the market may return to the fundamentals [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize as the oil price rises significantly from the low level and the market sentiment warms up [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most economies, but still imposed a 10% global tariff during the negotiation period, and raised the tariff on China to 125%. The "global recession expectation" has cooled down significantly, and risk assets have risen sharply [2]. - Domestic: China has raised the tariff on the US, and the policy of "counter - measures against foreign countries and stabilizing growth and expectations at home" has become the main line. The A - share market has rebounded with the support of liquidity, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices rose significantly on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, attracting safe - haven funds and supporting precious - metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June is 72%. Precious - metal prices may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US March CPI data [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened low and moved high on Wednesday, and the London copper rebounded. The global trade war has entered a period of easing negotiations, and the market risk preference has increased. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in May is 76%. Codelco is optimistic about the long - term copper demand, and copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed down on Wednesday. The US has suspended tariffs on some countries, and the EU has passed counter - measures. The market risk sentiment is released, and the supply - demand situation is still good. Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, but attention should be paid to tariff trends [8][9][10]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract fell on Tuesday. Some alumina plants have reduced production, and the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved. However, there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter, and alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation [11]. 3.1.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated weakly during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The market risk is quickly released, and the spot supply is tight. Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity [12]. 3.1.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract continued to fall during the day and rebounded at night on Wednesday. The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand, but due to the easing of tariff risks, lead prices are expected to stabilize and repair [13]. 3.1.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated downward during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The Bisie tin mine is gradually resuming production, but the global tin - mine tight pattern in the second quarter is difficult to change. Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level [14][15]. 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract oscillated at a low level on Wednesday. The high inventory drags down the market, and the demand in the peak season is weak. Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [16]. 3.1.10 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices oscillated on Wednesday. Although the fundamentals are bearish, the cost - support logic still exists, and lithium prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.1.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, and Indonesia is about to raise the mineral royalty. Nickel prices are expected to be strong [18]. 3.1.12 Crude Oil - The Shanghai crude - oil main contract oscillated on Wednesday and rose sharply at night. The oil price is mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but it is recommended to wait and see due to the volatile tariff policy [19]. 3.1.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel and iron - ore futures first fell and then rose on Wednesday. The capital - market sentiment eases, and the fundamentals of steel and iron ore change little. Steel and iron - ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, and the panic sentiment has eased. The double - meal prices may return to the fundamentals and oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices fell on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, the market sentiment warms up, and the oil price rises significantly from the low level. Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize [24]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - Provides the closing price, change, change percentage, total trading volume, total open interest, and price unit of various metal futures contracts on Wednesday, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, precious metals, steel, and iron ore [25]. 3.3 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the data of various metals on April 9th and April 8th, including futures prices, warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, spot premiums and discounts, refined - scrap spreads, and other indicators [26][28][29].