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路透：一艘阿根廷豆粕船货已通过中国海关，这是北京在2019年批准此类进口以来的首批付运。这标志着中国与全球最大豆粕出口国阿根廷开辟新贸易渠道。 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest information on the supply and demand of major oilseeds and oils in the 2025/26 period, including data on soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, as well as the expected trend of U.S. soybean crushing volume and inventory [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual U.S. Soybean Information - The estimated production for the 2025/26 U.S. soybean season is 4.253 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 4.301 billion bushels - The estimated planting area is 81.1 million acres, the same as the September estimate - The estimated harvested area is 80.3 million acres, consistent with the September estimate - The estimated yield per acre is 53 bushels, down from the September estimate of 53.5 bushels - The estimated export volume is 1.635 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 1.685 billion bushels - The estimated ending stocks are 290 million bushels, down from the September estimate of 300 million bushels [1] 2025/26 Annual Global Soybean Information - Brazil's estimated soybean production is 175 million tons, the same as the September estimate, and the estimated export volume is 112.5 million tons, up from the September estimate of 112 million tons - Argentina's estimated soybean production is 48.5 million tons, the same as the September estimate, and the estimated export volume is 8.25 million tons, up from the September estimate of 6 million tons - China's estimated soybean imports are 112 million tons, the same as the September estimate - Global estimated soybean production is 421.75 million tons, down from the September estimate of 425.87 million tons, and the estimated ending stocks are 121.99 million tons, down from the September estimate of 123.99 million tons [1] U.S. October Soybean Crushing Volume - The estimated U.S. soybean crushing volume in October is 209.522 million bushels, an increase of 5.9% from September's 197.863 million bushels and 4.8% from October 2024's 199.943 million bushels, setting a new record high [1] U.S. October Soybean Oil Inventory - The estimated U.S. soybean oil inventory in October is 1.257 billion pounds, an increase of 1.1% from the end - of - September inventory of 1.243 billion pounds and 17.0% from October 2024's 1.074 billion pounds [1] 2025/26 Annual Global Rapeseed Information - Global estimated rapeseed production is 92.273 million tons, an increase of 6.274 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 11.336 million tons, an increase of 1.504 million tons year - on - year - Global estimated rapeseed oil production is 35.009 million tons, an increase of 0.873 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 3.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons year - on - year - Global estimated rapeseed meal production is 50.005 million tons, an increase of 0.949 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 1.541 million tons, an increase of 0.153 million tons year - on - year - Canada's estimated rapeseed export volume is 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.631 million tons year - on - year; the estimated rapeseed oil export volume is 3.375 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons year - on - year; the estimated rapeseed meal export volume is 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.299 million tons year - on - year [1] Malaysia Palm Oil Export - Malaysia's palm oil product export volume from November 1 - 15 is 728,995 tons, a decrease of 15.5% compared to the same period last month [1] Indonesia Palm Oil Production - Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to increase by 3 - 4%, lower than this year's estimated growth rate of 4 - 7%, and the 2025 palm oil export is expected to increase by 6 - 7% [1] Spot Prices - The report provides spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 10 - 14, 2025 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a low - level oscillatory consolidation. After short - term consolidation, there is a need to rebound to 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit. However, beware of the risk of a technical decline due to concerns about slow exports and high seasonal production, with a possible second dip to 4,000 ringgit for support [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in an oscillatory rebound. Driven by the continuous rebound of soybean and rapeseed oils, it may follow the upward trend and test the annual - line resistance at 8,900 yuan, and may briefly break through to fill the gap around 8,950 yuan. But it may also follow the decline to seek support at 8,500 yuan if Malaysian palm oil has a second dip to 4,000 ringgit [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil: Due to the swelling of soybean meal warehouses, the recent factory operating rate has decreased, resulting in reduced soybean oil output and inventory. The recent rebound of soybean oil and the "buy - on - rising" psychology of some traders have boosted the futures market. However, the limited fluctuations of international related varieties have restricted the increase of Dalian soybean oil. The upper pressure of the CBOT soybean oil January contract is around 8,350 yuan on the daily upper - track. If the USDA monthly report fails to boost CBOT soybeans and soybean oil, CBOT soybeans may回调, dragging down Dalian soybean oil [4]. Oilseeds - Soybean Meal - Futures: Although China has made moderate purchases of US soybeans, the continuous poor crushing profit of oil mills has led to less than 50% of the ship - buying progress from December to February. The low crushing profit provides bottom support for prices, but the continuous increase of short positions by COFCO restricts the upward space. It is expected that Dalian soybean meal will remain oscillating in the range of 3,030 - 3,070 yuan in the short term [13]. - Spot: The fixed - price of oil mills remains stable, and the near - month basis has been partially reduced by 10 yuan. The news of Cofco's reserve rotation has affected market sentiment, and the downstream purchasing rhythm is slow. Some make moderate replenishments before the release of the US agricultural report. The short - term spot price is expected to be sorted out in the range of 3,000 - 3,250 yuan/ton [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil - Fat Price and Spread - **Month - to - month and variety - to - variety spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. have different price changes. For example, P 1 - 5 is - 84 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 18 yuan, and Y - P 01 is - 532 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 70 yuan [5]. - **Palm oil prices**: Palm oil 01 is 8,744 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.3%, BMD palm oil main contract is 4,123 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.34%, etc [5]. - **Soybean oil prices**: Soybean oil 01 is 8,288 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.16%, CBOT soybean oil main contract is 51.04 cents/pound with an increase of 1.01%, etc [9]. Oilseed Price and Spread - **Futures prices**: For example, the closing price of bean粕01 is 3,059 with an increase of 5 and a rise - rate of 0.16%, and the closing price of菜粕01 is 2,494 with a decrease of 6 and a decline - rate of - 0.24% [14]. - **Price spreads**: M01 - 05 is 218 with a daily decrease of 16, RM01 - 05 is 79 with a daily decrease of 20, etc [15].

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed significant gains on November 6, with the main soybean futures rising nearly 2% [1] - The main contracts for various oilseed products experienced mixed performance, with some increasing while others, like peanuts, saw a slight decline [1] Price Movements - Soybean oil futures opened at 8138.00 and closed at 8120.00, while palm oil opened at 8582.00 and closed at 8618.00 [2] - The main contracts for canola meal and soybean meal also showed upward trends, with canola meal rising to 2547.00 and soybean meal to 3073.00 [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of November 5, the number of warehouse receipts for canola oil decreased by 702 to 8738, while palm oil receipts increased by 650 to 650 [3] - Soybean meal receipts decreased by 210 to 42122, and soybean oil receipts decreased by 200 to 27444 [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis for canola oil was reported at 302, with a basis rate of 3.10%, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Other products like soybean and palm oil also showed positive basis values, reflecting a similar trend in the market [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents the latest weekly data on the breeding industry chain, including the latest values, previous values, and weekly changes of various indicators for both soybean meal and oils, aiming to provide a data - based reference for the market situation of these products. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Soybean Meal Data - The 43% protein soybean meal's aggregated average price is 3067.00 yuan/ton, up 2.61% week - on - week [2]. - The soybean meal's futures - spot price difference is 41.00 yuan/ton, down 28.07% week - on - week [2]. - The output of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 154.68 million tons, down 4.42% week - on - week [2]. - The daily trading volume of soybean meal is 104300.00 tons, up 8.42% week - on - week [2]. - The apparent consumption of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 146.46 million tons, down 4.36% week - on - week [2]. - The inventory of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 102.25 million tons, up 8.74% week - on - week [2]. - The basis of the soybean meal's spot main contract is 101.29 yuan/ton, down 19.25% week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Oil Data - Palm oil inventory in China is 59.28 million tons, down 2.36% week - on - week [5]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in China is 51.60 million tons, down 3.73% week - on - week [5]. - Soybean oil inventory in China is 121.58 million tons, down 2.76% week - on - week [5]. - The futures - spot price difference of palm oil in China is - 1.00 yuan/ton, up 100.00% week - on - week [5]. - The futures - spot price difference of rapeseed oil in China is 488.00 yuan/ton, up 3.83% week - on - week [5]. - The futures - spot price difference of soybean oil and palm oil in China is - 318.00 yuan/ton, down 48.71% week - on - week [5]. - The basis of the palm oil's spot main contract is - 42.00 yuan/ton, down 167.74% week - on - week [5]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil's spot main contract is 356.50 yuan/ton, up 20.54% week - on - week [5]. - The basis of the soybean oil's spot main contract is 250.74 yuan/ton, down 17.69% week - on - week [5].

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a positive trend on November 3, with the main contract for rapeseed meal rising over 4% [1] - The main contracts for palm oil and soybean meal also experienced increases, while soybean oil saw a slight decline [1] Price Movements - Rapeseed meal main contract rose by 4.14% to 2489.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil main contract increased by 1.41% to 8676.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal main contract went up by 1.60% to 3053.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil main contract decreased by 0.56% to 8106.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Warehouse Data - As of October 31, the warehouse receipts for soybean oil remained stable at 27,644 lots - The warehouse receipts for soybean one increased by 48 lots to 7,238 lots - The warehouse receipts for soybean meal remained unchanged at 42,332 lots [3] Basis Data - The phenomenon of "backwardation" was observed in several contracts, where spot prices exceeded futures prices - For example, the basis for rapeseed oil was 284 CNY with a basis rate of 2.91% - The basis for rapeseed meal was 103 CNY with a basis rate of 4.13% [3]

Core Insights - The grain and oilseed sector experienced widespread price declines in Q3 2025, with soybean meal futures falling by 2.06% and soybean oil by 6.93% [1]. - Despite the bearish trend in soybean prices, there is potential for future price increases due to rising global demand and production cost pressures [3][4]. Soybean Market - Soybean meal futures settled at $265.70 per ton, while soybean oil settled at 48.87 cents per pound as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - Over the first nine months of 2025, soybean meal prices declined by 13.66%, whereas soybean oil prices increased by 22.85% [1]. - Nearby soybean futures settled at $10.0175 per bushel on September 30, 2025, with a slight increase to $10.2750 in mid-October [2]. Corn Market - Nearby CBOT corn futures declined by 1.19% in Q3 2025 and were down 9.38% over the first nine months of 2025 [6]. - Corn futures settled at $4.1550 per bushel on September 30, 2025, with a marginal increase to $4.2050 in mid-October [7]. Wheat Market - Nearby soft red winter wheat futures fell by 3.92% in Q3 2025 and were down 7.89% over the first nine months of 2025 [8]. - KCBT hard red winter wheat futures declined by 1.63% in Q3 2025, settling at $4.9775 per bushel on September 30, 2025 [10]. - Nearby MGE spring wheat futures decreased by 6.67% in Q3 2025, settling at $5.6275 per bushel [11]. Other Grains - Oat futures saw a significant decline of 20.49% in Q3 2025, settling at $3.0750 per bushel [12]. - Rough rice futures dropped by 13.82% in Q3 2025, settling at $11.165 per cwt [13]. Market Outlook - The grain and oilseed prices are expected to remain bearish in Q4 2025 due to sufficient crop yields meeting global demand [14]. - The lack of USDA data due to a government shutdown may hinder market transparency, but robust supplies suggest limited downside potential for prices [16]. - The cyclical nature of agricultural commodities indicates that current low prices may discourage production, potentially leading to higher prices in the future [16].

阿根廷政府宣布，在10月31日之前，或出口总额达到70亿美元之前，暂免大豆（此前26%关税）、豆油（24%）、豆粕（24%）、玉米（9.5%）和小麦（9.5%）等农产品出口关税。路透援引贸易商消息报道，在阿根廷宣布免税后，中国买家已从阿根廷预订了至少10船大豆，为第四季度建立库存。另有贸易商称15船。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):上周米莱在接受记者采访时坦言“市场正处于恐慌状态”。过去一个月，阿根廷债券股票外汇全线下跌，资本外流速度明显加快。丰业银行资本市场经济主管Derek https://t.co/Du2qsFUeeQ ...

Government Policy & Trade - Argentina government temporarily waives export tariffs on agricultural products including soybeans (previously 26%), soybean oil (24%), soybean meal (24%), corn (9.5%) and wheat (9.5%) until October 31 or until export volume reaches $7 billion [1] - Following Argentina's tax exemption announcement, Chinese buyers have booked at least 10 soybean shipments from Argentina to build inventory for the fourth quarter, with some traders mentioning 15 shipments [1] Economic & Market Conditions - Argentina's market is in a state of panic, with bonds, stocks, and foreign exchange rates all declining and capital outflow accelerating in the past month [2]