6月30日，国内期市油脂油料板块大面积飘绿，菜籽粕主力涨逾1%。截至目前，菜籽粕主力上涨 1.14%，报2572.00元/吨；菜籽油主力下跌0.43%，报9421.00元/吨；棕榈油主力下跌0.69%，报8308.00 元/吨；豆油主力下跌0.32%，报7976.00元/吨。 6月30日油脂油料期货价格行情 | 合约名称 | 开盘价 | 昨收价 | 昨结价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆油 | 7994.00 | 8002.00 | 8002.00 | | 棕榈油 | 8366.00 | 8376.00 | 8366.00 | | 菜籽油 | 9466.00 | 9466.00 | 9462.00 | | 豆粕 | 2942.00 | 2946.00 | 2938.00 | | 菜籽粕 | 2558.00 | 2559.00 | 2543.00 | | 豆一 | 4141.00 | 4140.00 | 4144.00 | | 豆二 | 3601.00 | 3603.00 | 3601.00 | | 花生 | 8178.00 | 8170.00 | 8170.00 | | 油菜籽 ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者CFC商品策略研究 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带 到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 我用一种最保留的说法说，期货市场正进入一个行易知难的状态，做预设和行动都极端容易，但在当下变局下，过去的应对经验很可能成为某种"负 债"。在此状态中专家型单品种研究者在自己的领域里事无巨细，但之于行情的预判泯然众人。罗列过往的PPT或正简化着思想，历史经验知识提供 阐释和规范，但不能创造先例，反而经验型茧房把思维束缚在某种共识或偏见当中。6月的几大交易主题： 1、煤价托底的成色。 正值国内煤炭季节性需求窗口，截至6月5日，二十五省电厂日耗485万吨/天，周环比+7.5%，库存可用天数 24.4天，周环比-1.6天。市场提前于现货押注上行（截至6月6日，秦皇岛港动力末煤平仓价(山西产)为609元/吨，环比-0.3% ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/05 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 【USDA报告前瞻】截至5月29日当周美国大豆出口销售料净增10-60万吨 报告出炉前的一项针对行业分析师的调查结果显示，截至5月29日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增10.0万吨至净增 60.0万吨，其中2024/25年度料净增10.0万吨至净增50.0万吨，2025/26年度料净增0万吨至净增10.0万吨。 美国豆粕出口销售料净增20.0万吨至净增70.0万吨，其中2024/25年度料净增20.0万吨至净增50.0万吨，2025/26年 度料净增0万吨至净增20.0万吨。 美国豆油出口销售料净增0.5万吨至净增3.5万吨，其中2024/25年度料净增0.5万吨至净增2.5万吨，2025/26年度料 净增0万吨至净增1.0万吨。 Anec：巴西6月大豆出口料为1,255万吨 Anec预估，巴西6月份大豆出口量料为1,255万吨，低于去年同期时的1,383万吨。 最新的预估基于船运安排初步数据，预计6月大豆出口量亦低于5月的1，420万吨。 该机构维持2025年将出口1.10亿吨大豆的展望，若能实现，则将创下历史新高，超过去年所创 ...

Core Insights - The domestic oilseed futures market experienced a mixed performance on May 23, with peanut futures declining over 1% [1] - The main peanut futures dropped by 1.17% to 8288.00 CNY/ton, while palm oil futures fell by 0.17% to 8018.00 CNY/ton [1] - Soybean meal futures increased by 0.75% to 2954.00 CNY/ton, while soybean futures saw a slight decrease of 0.36% to 4189.00 CNY/ton [1] Price Movements - The opening and closing prices for various oilseed futures on May 23 are as follows: - Soybean oil: opened at 7770.00 CNY, closed at 7760.00 CNY - Palm oil: opened at 7996.00 CNY, closed at 8032.00 CNY - Canola oil: opened at 9408.00 CNY, closed at 9388.00 CNY - Soybean meal: opened at 2944.00 CNY, closed at 2932.00 CNY - Canola meal: opened at 2563.00 CNY, closed at 2550.00 CNY - Soybean futures: opened at 4201.00 CNY, closed at 4204.00 CNY - Peanut: opened at 8350.00 CNY, closed at 8386.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of May 22, the warehouse receipt data for various oilseed futures showed: - Soybean oil: 14602 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Palm oil: 330 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Canola oil: 2121 contracts, decreased by 67 contracts - Soybean meal: 38311 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Canola meal: 28877 contracts, decreased by 2070 contracts - Soybean futures: 30136 contracts, decreased by 600 contracts - Peanut: 600 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for various commodities are as follows: - Canola oil: spot price 9541.67 CNY, futures price 9388 CNY, basis 153 CNY, basis rate 1.60% - Canola meal: spot price 2510 CNY, futures price 2550 CNY, basis -40 CNY, basis rate -1.59% - Palm oil: spot price 8546 CNY, futures price 8032 CNY, basis 514 CNY, basis rate 6.01% - Soybean futures: spot price 4255 CNY, futures price 4204 CNY, basis 51 CNY, basis rate 1.20% - Soybean meal: spot price 2998 CNY, futures price 2932 CNY, basis 66 CNY, basis rate 2.20% - Soybean oil: spot price 8074 CNY, futures price 7760 CNY, basis 314 CNY, basis rate 3.89% [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.70 and total segment operating profit of $747 million for the quarter [5] - Trailing fourth quarter adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) was 7% and cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $439 million [5][24] - Overall cash flow from operations decreased compared to the prior quarter due to lower total segment operating profit [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit was $240 million, down 3% year-over-year [20] - The Nutrition segment revenues were $1.8 billion, down 1% year-over-year, while operating profit increased by 13% to $95 million [22][23] - The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment operating profit was $412 million, down 52% compared to the prior year quarter [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Ag Services sub-segment operating profit was $159 million, down 31% due to lower North American origination export volumes [17] - Global trade results were lower compared to the same quarter last year, largely due to negative timing impacts [17] - Equity earnings from the company's investment in Wilmar were $72 million, down 52% compared to the prior year quarter [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on cost savings of $500 million to $750 million over the next three to five years, including workforce reductions and a review of third-party consulting spend [9] - Strategic decisions include the closure of the Cursea, South Carolina crush facility and the exit from domestic trading operations in China and Dubai [10] - The company is advancing automation and digitization across its global manufacturing network to improve reliability and efficiency [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the team's ability to navigate an uncertain external landscape while focusing on execution and cost management [12][31] - The company remains cautious about the second half outlook for crush margin improvement due to current domestic crush replacement margins being below expectations [26] - Management highlighted the importance of clarity on Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) to support strong U.S. demand for crop-based vegetable oils [34] Other Important Information - The company returned $247 million to shareholders in the form of dividends during the quarter [25] - The Decatur East facility is expected to be fully operational by the end of the second quarter, with an anticipated impact of $25 million per quarter for Nutrition once fully operational [99] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for RVO and its impact on 2025 outlook - Management indicated that strong RVOs are crucial for the biofuel outlook and expect margins to improve in the second half of the year [40][41] Question: Specific RVO numbers and positive outcomes for ADM - Management mentioned that the industry requires approximately €25 billion in biomass-based biodiesel and conventional biodiesel to support internal consumption and export markets [51][52] Question: Strength in RPO despite a weak environment - Management acknowledged that while RPO was better in the short run, overall expectations remain lower due to biodiesel margin pressures and increased refining capacity [58][59] Question: Trade flow shifts and impact of tariffs - Management noted that the impact of tariffs has not been significant in Q1, with most products exempt from export tariffs to Mexico and Canada [64][66] Question: Signs of rationalization in the soy crush industry - Management speculated that the industry may see plant shutdowns when demand is low, but emphasized the importance of clarity on RPO mandates for future capacity [73][74] Question: Commercialization of Argentine crops - Management expects Argentine farmers to become more regular in commercializing crops as they take advantage of government tax benefits before they expire [79] Question: Volume growth expectations for Starches and Sweeteners - Management reiterated guidance for slightly lower volumes than last year, with some weakness noted in specific markets [82][84] Question: Ethanol margins and performance - Management highlighted good risk management in ethanol operations, with expectations for margins to improve over the year [90] Question: Contribution from Decatur once fully operational - Management confirmed that the Decatur plant's impact will be felt in the second half of the year, with an expected contribution of $25 million per quarter [99]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global recession expectation has cooled down due to the postponement of tariffs, but the geopolitical situation will become more complex in the medium and long term. The A - share market is expected to show a structural market with a stable index and style differentiation, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. - Precious metals prices may rebound in the short term due to the volatile tariff policies, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high of gold prices and the US March CPI data [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term as the global trade war enters a period of easing negotiations and the risk appetite of the global market has significantly recovered [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize as the market risk sentiment is released, and the overall supply - demand situation is still good, but attention should be paid to further tariff trends [8][9][10]. - Alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation as the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved, but there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter [11]. - Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity as the short - term market risk is quickly released with the loosening of Trump's tariff policy [12]. - Lead prices are expected to follow the London lead to stabilize and repair as the tariff risk eases [13]. - Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level as the global trade situation concern eases, and the tight pattern of tin mines in the second quarter is difficult to change [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation as the peak - season demand is weak and the high inventory drags down the spot market [16]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as the cost - support logic still exists although the fundamental outlook is bearish [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to be strong as the cost - increase logic of the increase in Indonesia's mineral royalty is about to be realized [18]. - Crude oil prices are mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but due to the volatile tariff policy, it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment eases and the fundamentals change little, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern [20]. - Iron ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment recovers and the supply - demand relationship changes little [21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as the panic sentiment eases and the market may return to the fundamentals [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize as the oil price rises significantly from the low level and the market sentiment warms up [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most economies, but still imposed a 10% global tariff during the negotiation period, and raised the tariff on China to 125%. The "global recession expectation" has cooled down significantly, and risk assets have risen sharply [2]. - Domestic: China has raised the tariff on the US, and the policy of "counter - measures against foreign countries and stabilizing growth and expectations at home" has become the main line. The A - share market has rebounded with the support of liquidity, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices rose significantly on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, attracting safe - haven funds and supporting precious - metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June is 72%. Precious - metal prices may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US March CPI data [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened low and moved high on Wednesday, and the London copper rebounded. The global trade war has entered a period of easing negotiations, and the market risk preference has increased. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in May is 76%. Codelco is optimistic about the long - term copper demand, and copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed down on Wednesday. The US has suspended tariffs on some countries, and the EU has passed counter - measures. The market risk sentiment is released, and the supply - demand situation is still good. Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, but attention should be paid to tariff trends [8][9][10]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract fell on Tuesday. Some alumina plants have reduced production, and the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved. However, there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter, and alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation [11]. 3.1.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated weakly during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The market risk is quickly released, and the spot supply is tight. Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity [12]. 3.1.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract continued to fall during the day and rebounded at night on Wednesday. The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand, but due to the easing of tariff risks, lead prices are expected to stabilize and repair [13]. 3.1.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated downward during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The Bisie tin mine is gradually resuming production, but the global tin - mine tight pattern in the second quarter is difficult to change. Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level [14][15]. 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract oscillated at a low level on Wednesday. The high inventory drags down the market, and the demand in the peak season is weak. Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [16]. 3.1.10 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices oscillated on Wednesday. Although the fundamentals are bearish, the cost - support logic still exists, and lithium prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.1.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, and Indonesia is about to raise the mineral royalty. Nickel prices are expected to be strong [18]. 3.1.12 Crude Oil - The Shanghai crude - oil main contract oscillated on Wednesday and rose sharply at night. The oil price is mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but it is recommended to wait and see due to the volatile tariff policy [19]. 3.1.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel and iron - ore futures first fell and then rose on Wednesday. The capital - market sentiment eases, and the fundamentals of steel and iron ore change little. Steel and iron - ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, and the panic sentiment has eased. The double - meal prices may return to the fundamentals and oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices fell on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, the market sentiment warms up, and the oil price rises significantly from the low level. Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize [24]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - Provides the closing price, change, change percentage, total trading volume, total open interest, and price unit of various metal futures contracts on Wednesday, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, precious metals, steel, and iron ore [25]. 3.3 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the data of various metals on April 9th and April 8th, including futures prices, warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, spot premiums and discounts, refined - scrap spreads, and other indicators [26][28][29].