Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE:ADM) 2026 Conference February 25, 2026 08:15 AM ET Company ParticipantsChris Cuddy - President of Carbohydrate Solutions SegmentGreg Morris - President of the Ag Services and Oilseeds SegmentConference Call ParticipantsSalvator Tiano - Equity Research AnalystSalvator TianoGood morning, everyone. I'm Salvator Tiano. Thank you very much for coming and making it through this weather. For the next fireside chat, we have ADM, and we have two people actually, so all the expert ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/25 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： Anec:巴西2月大豆出口料为1,069万吨 Anec表示，巴西2月大豆出口料为1,069万吨，低于前一周预测的1,146万吨。 巴西2月豆粕出口料为173万吨，低于前一周预测的182万吨。 马来西亚维持3月毛棕榈油出口关税在9%不变 马来西亚维持3月船期毛棕榈油出口关税在9%不变，由于毛棕榈油价格疲软。 MPOB称，这一税率是基于3月份毛棕榈油每吨3,896.09马币(999.38美元的参考价。 马来西亚对毛棕榈油出口税实施分级制度，当毛棕榈油价格每吨超过2，250马币时，税率从3%起逐步递增至最高 10%。 Conab：截至2月21日当周，巴西2025/26年度大豆收割率为32.3% Conab公布的数据显示，截至2026年2月21日当周，巴西2025/26年度大豆收割率为32.3%，此前一周为24.7%，上年 同期为36.4%，五年均值为36.6%。 主 产 国 降 水 情 况 进 口 大 豆 盘 面 压 榨 利 润 油 脂 进 口 利 润 现 货 价 格 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Andersons, Inc. is recognized as a strong investment opportunity, particularly due to its growing ethanol business and easing challenges in its Agribusiness segment, with a positive long-term growth outlook [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - The Andersons, Inc. operates in diversified sectors including Agribusiness and Renewables, with activities in commodity merchandising, grain terminal operations, and the production and distribution of plant nutrient products [4]. Group 2: Analyst Coverage and Growth Projections - Benchmark analyst Benjamin Klieve initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a price target of $75, citing strong momentum in the ethanol business and high visibility into future growth [2]. - The company aims for a run-rate of $7.00 in earnings per share by the end of 2028, indicating a 36% compounded annual growth rate from $2.56 per share over the trailing twelve months ending September 30, 2025 [2]. Group 3: Strategic Investments - A significant $60 million investment is planned for the Clymers, Indiana ethanol plant, expected to add 30 million gallons of ethanol capacity by mid-2027 [3]. - The expansion of the export terminal at the Port of Houston is also underway, set for completion in 2026, which will enhance soybean meal exports and improve western grain export efficiency [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export sales of US soybeans and soybean meal in the week ending January 15 met expectations, with significant increases in current - market - year sales. The export shipments of soybeans decreased compared to the previous week, while those of soybean meal increased. The Brazilian soybean production forecast was slightly raised, and the soybean harvest rate in Mato Grosso, Brazil, is higher than in previous years [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US Soybean Export Sales - In the week ending January 15, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 244.6 million tons, a 19% increase from the previous week and a 92% increase from the four - week average, reaching the highest level of the year. The market expected a net increase of 150 - 300 million tons. Exports to the Chinese mainland net increased by 130.35 million tons. Next - year's soybean export sales net increased by 0.9 million tons, with the market expecting 0 - 20 million tons. Exports to the Chinese mainland net decreased by 6.6 million tons [1] - US soybean export shipments in the same week were 133.77 million tons, an 18% decrease from the previous week but an 11% increase from the four - week average. Shipments to the Chinese mainland were 59.35 million tons [1] - US current - market - year soybean new sales were 246.83 million tons, and next - market - year new sales were 7.5 million tons [1] Overnight Market Information - US Soybean Meal Export Sales - In the week ending January 15, US current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 41.27 million tons, a 21% increase from the previous week and an 82% increase from the four - week average. The market expected a net increase of 20 - 50 million tons [1] - US soybean meal export shipments in the same week were 48.47 million tons, a 59% increase from the previous week and a 33% increase from the four - week average [1] - US current - market - year soybean meal new sales were 42.37 million tons, and next - market - year new sales were 0 tons [1] Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast - A commodity research institution estimated that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production would be 178.7 million tons, with a forecast range of 175.2 - 183.6 million tons, an increase of less than 1% from the previous forecast. Good soil moisture in the core regions supports record - high yield and production expectations [1] Brazilian Soybean Harvest Rate - Imea data showed that the 2025/26 soybean harvest rate in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 13.88% of the planted area, a 7.19% increase from the previous week. It is also higher than the 4.38% in the same period in 2025 and the five - year average of 5.61% [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 19 - 23, 2026, are provided [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on essential companies like Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) that provide necessary products regardless of economic conditions, contrasting them with more volatile investments that are influenced by media narratives and market fears [1][2]. Company Overview - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is characterized as a "boring" company that consistently generates cash flow in any economic environment, delivering a total return of 26% over the past year [4]. - The stock has recently pulled back, presenting a buying opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on its potential for growth in 2026 [4]. Market Dynamics - Concerns about low "crush margins" in the soybean processing industry led to a sell-off of ADM stock, but this reaction is viewed as a misunderstanding of agricultural market cycles [5]. - Agricultural markets are cyclical; when corn prices are high, supply increases, leading to price drops, which creates a buying opportunity for investors [6]. Demand Drivers - Regardless of economic conditions, the global population continues to grow, increasing the demand for food, particularly protein sources, which rely heavily on corn and soy meal [7]. - The feed-to-meat production ratio establishes a floor for corn and soybean prices, indicating that prices are unlikely to decrease significantly from current levels [8]. Future Catalysts - Two potential catalysts for ADM's growth include a proposed increase in biomass-based diesel targets by the EPA, which would boost demand for corn and soybeans, and significant cost-cutting measures aimed at improving profitability [9]. - Management's share repurchase strategy has reduced the share count by 14% over the past five years, enhancing earnings per share (EPS) even in flat earnings scenarios [10]. Dividend and Investment Appeal - ADM is recognized as a "Dividend King," having raised its dividend for over 50 consecutive years, making it a reliable investment during various economic cycles [11]. - The company offers a 3.5% dividend yield, with expectations for a dividend hike in the near future, positioning it as an attractive option for income-focused investors [12]. Broader Investment Opportunities - The article identifies additional "essential" stocks with similar valuations to ADM that are also positioned to deliver strong returns regardless of economic conditions, emphasizing the importance of investing in recession-resistant dividend growers [12][13].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: US Hog and Pork Industry - **Key Focus**: Analysis of farrow-to-finish operations and hog prices in the US market Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Profitability Trends**: - The US farrow-to-finish sector experienced a profitable Q425 with an operating profit of approximately US$10/head on average over the past decade. - After facing losses exceeding US$20/head in Q422-Q124 due to rising feed prices, the sector rebounded with profits of US$21/head on average in Q224-Q325, driven by lower feed costs and higher hog prices. - Specific profits reported: US$11/head in Q125, US$27/head in Q225, US$51/head in Q325, and continued profits of US$34/head in Oct 2025 (+263% YoY) and US$16/head in Nov 2025 (+9% YoY) despite seasonal weaknesses [2][6][27]. 2. **Hog Price Outlook**: - In 2025, live equivalent lean hog prices averaged around US$69/cwt (+8% YoY), with quarterly averages of US$64/cwt (+10% YoY), US$70/cwt (+4% YoY), US$77/cwt (+17% YoY), and US$64/cwt (+2% YoY) in Q425. - The USDA forecasts a slight decrease in average hog prices to US$67/cwt (-3% YoY) in 2026, with quarterly expectations of US$64/cwt (+1% YoY), US$70/cwt (+0% YoY), and US$71/cwt (-8% YoY) [3][11]. 3. **Feed Costs Analysis**: - Feed costs, which constitute about 60% of total costs for farrow-to-finish operations (26% corn, 11% soybean meal), saw a significant decline contributing to improved hog farming returns in 2024-25. - Feed costs decreased by -13%/-8%/-7% YoY in Q1/Q2/Q3 2025 and -5% YoY in Oct-Nov 2025. However, prices for corn and soybean meal have stabilized after bottoming out in late 2024, with expectations of less cost relief for hog farming in 2026 [4][18]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Dynamics**: - The turnaround in hog farming returns is attributed to lower feed costs and higher hog prices, indicating a recovery phase post the adverse impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on feed prices [2][6]. 2. **Risks Identified**: - Key risks for the sector include price volatility of agricultural commodities, disease outbreaks, food safety regulations, and increased environmental protection costs due to stricter government regulations [27]. 3. **Future Projections**: - The expectation of marginally higher supply in 2026 is likely to exert downward pressure on hog prices, indicating a cautious outlook for the upcoming year [3][11]. This summary encapsulates the essential findings and projections regarding the US hog and pork industry, highlighting profitability trends, price forecasts, and associated risks.

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance with significant declines in canola seed futures, while other oil futures experience slight increases or decreases in prices [1] Price Movements - As of January 13, 2023, the main futures prices are as follows: - Canola oil increased by 0.69% to 9033.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil increased by 1.85% to 8818.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal decreased by 0.29% to 2778.00 CNY/ton - Canola seed decreased by 5.93% to 5221.00 CNY/ton [1] - Opening and closing prices for various contracts on January 13, 2023, include: - Soybean oil: opened at 8008.00 CNY, closed at 7994.00 CNY - Palm oil: opened at 8746.00 CNY, closed at 8724.00 CNY - Canola oil: opened at 8974.00 CNY, closed at 8980.00 CNY - Soybean meal: opened at 2799.00 CNY, closed at 2790.00 CNY - Canola meal: opened at 2330.00 CNY, closed at 2330.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of January 12, 2023, warehouse receipts for various futures are reported as follows: - Soybean two futures: 400 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Soybean oil futures: 29197 contracts, decreased by 229 contracts - Soybean meal futures: 25410 contracts, unchanged - Palm oil futures: 1448 contracts, increased by 200 contracts - Soybean one futures: 25546 contracts, decreased by 260 contracts - Canola meal futures: 84 contracts, unchanged - Canola oil futures: 2292 contracts, increased by 130 contracts - Peanut futures: 1855 contracts, increased by 239 contracts [3] Basis Data - The basis data as of January 12, 2023, indicates the following: - Canola oil: spot price 9882 CNY, futures price 8971 CNY, basis 911 CNY, basis rate 9.22% - Canola meal: spot price 2460 CNY, futures price 2328 CNY, basis 132 CNY, basis rate 5.37% - Palm oil: spot price 8620 CNY, futures price 8658 CNY, basis -38 CNY, basis rate -0.44% - Soybean one: spot price 4455 CNY, futures price 4349 CNY, basis 106 CNY, basis rate 2.38% - Soybean meal: spot price 3186 CNY, futures price 2786 CNY, basis 400 CNY, basis rate 12.55% - Soybean oil: spot price 8348 CNY, futures price 7972 CNY, basis 376 CNY, basis rate 4.50% [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to increase in different ranges in the weeks ending January 1, 2026 [1]. - The average institutional expectation for US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2026, is 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase from the same period last year, reaching the highest level since 2019 [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to reach a record - high of 112 million tons, with a forecast of 24 million tons of soybean meal exports. However, exports to China may decrease by 10 million tons compared to 2025 [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreased by 4.64% month - on - month. The 2025/26 annual production is expected to increase, with end - of - period inventory decreasing [1]. - Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 51.2 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales in the week ending January 1, 2026, are expected to net increase by 7.5 - 16 million tons, with 7.5 - 13 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 3 million tons for the 2026 - 27 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 1 - 3.5 million tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0 - 0.3 million tons [1]. - The average institutional expectation for US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2026, is 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase from the same period last year, the highest since 2019. The USDA will release the quarterly grain inventory report on January 13, 2026 (Beijing time) [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to reach a record - high of 112 million tons, with exports to China expected to be 77 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from 2025. Brazil is also expected to export 24 million tons of soybean meal in 2026 [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons. The 2025/26 annual production is expected to be 19.7 million tons, with total supply of 22.56 million tons, exports of about 16.2 million tons, and end - of - period inventory decreasing from 2.36 million tons to 2.16 million tons [1]. - A commodity survey shows that Malaysia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 19.6 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous forecast. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 51.2 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented in a table, showing price fluctuations during this period [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean export inspection and sales data show a mixed performance, with export inspection volume in line with expectations and sales showing different growth trends compared to previous periods [1] - The Brazilian soybean production forecast has been raised, and the 2025 export volume reached a record high, while the Malaysian palm - oil inventory is expected to reach a near - seven - year high due to strong production [1] 3. Summary by Related Content US Soybean Export Data - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 980,518 tons, in line with the market forecast of 750,000 - 1,150,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 397,069 tons, accounting for 40.5% of the total. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year is 16,401,241 tons, compared with 29,967,442 tons in the same period of the previous year [1] - For the week ending December 25, 2025, the net increase in US current - market - year soybean export sales was 117.77 million tons, a 19% increase from the previous week and a 20% decrease from the four - week average. The net increase in next - year's export sales was 6.64 million tons. The export shipment was 122 million tons, a 43% increase from the previous week and a 47% increase from the four - week average [1] US Soybean Meal Export Data - For the week ending December 25, 2025, the net increase in US current - market - year soybean meal export sales was 11.06 million tons, a 63% decrease from the previous week and a 73% decrease from the four - week average. The net increase in next - year's export sales was 4.18 million tons. The export shipment was 26.08 million tons, a 34% decrease from the previous week and a 25% decrease from the four - week average [1] Brazilian Soybean Data - Brazilian consulting firm StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to 177.6 million tons, a 0.2% increase from its December forecast and a 5.2% increase from the previous year, due to higher yields in Mato Grosso and favorable December weather [1] - BiondAgro also predicted a record - high Brazilian crop yield of 176.85 million tons [1] - Cargonave data showed that Brazil's 2025 soybean export volume reached a record high of 108.68 million tons, an 11.7% increase from 2024, and the soybean meal export volume also reached a record high, exceeding 23.07 million tons [1] Malaysian Palm - oil Data - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm - oil product export volume in December 2025 was 1,000,703 tons, a 28.40% increase from the previous month [1] - A survey showed that Malaysia's December 2025 palm - oil inventory is expected to reach a near - seven - year high of 2.97 million tons, a 4.7% increase from November, due to strong monthly production. The crude palm - oil production is expected to be 1.76 million tons, the highest since December 2018, although it decreased by 9% from the previous month. Palm - oil product exports are expected to increase by 2.8% to 1.25 million tons [1] Indonesian Palm - oil Data - Indonesia's statistics showed that from January to November 2025, the country exported 20.85 million tons of crude and refined palm - oil, a 4.32% increase from the previous year, with a total export value of 21.63 billion US dollars. In November, the export volume was 1.36 million tons, a nearly 29% decrease from the previous year [1] Spot Price Data - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm - oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are provided, showing certain price fluctuations [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: ITG Guomao Futures Data Daily - Report Date: December 29, 2025 - Researcher: Huang Xianglan - Investment Consultation Number: Z0021658 - Qualification Number: F03110419 1. Core Viewpoints - The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is beneficial for near - month contracts and positive spreads. Attention should be paid to customs policy dynamics [8]. - US soybean exports are weak, and there is no obvious hype driver in South American weather. Brazilian premiums are expected to face pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, with an overall expectation of near - strong and far - weak [8]. - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect far - month supply [7][8]. - The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, but recent downstream transactions are normal, and提货 performance is good [8]. 2. Industry Data Summaries 2.1 Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on December 26, 2025: Dalian was 390 with a rise of 10; in different regions such as Rizhao (330, +10), Tianjin (350, +10), Zhangjiagang (340, - 500), Dongguan (290, - 10), Zhanjiang (310, - 30), and Fangcheng (310, - 10) [4]. - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 76, down 32 [4]. 2.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the factory was 300, and the spot spread in the market was 399, down 9; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 559, up 12 [5]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 68, down 16; the M3 - M5 spread and M1 - RM1 spread data were also presented [4][5]. 2.3 Supply - related Data - According to CONAB, the predicted output of the 25/26 Brazilian new crop is 177.6 million tons. As of December 5, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3% [7]. - According to BAGE, as of December 3, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 4.7% [7]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and the de - stocking of soybean meal is slow. The现货 supply pressure is still large, and it is expected to accelerate de - stocking from December to January [8]. 2.4 Demand - related Data - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red [7][8]. - The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and recent downstream transactions are normal, with good提货 performance [8]. 2.5 Other Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9815, with no change. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 150 cents per bushel, and the domestic import soybean spot crushing profit was 90 yuan per ton [5]. - The domestic soybean auction had a high premium, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction situations [7].