交银国际研究 公司更新 | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 29 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 | | 180.17 | 美元 204.00↑ | +13.2% | | | 英伟达 (NVDA US) | | | | | | Blackwell 部署顺利推进，Rubin 进度符合预期，对华业务仍存疑 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 8/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% NVDA US 标普500 股份资料 | 52周高位 (美元) | 183.16 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (美元) | 94.31 | | 市值 (百万美元) | 4,396,148.00 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 279.16 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 34.16 | | 200天平均价 (美元) | 139.65 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA Da ...

| 英伟达 | | NVDA US | | --- | --- | --- | | Blackwell 部署顺利推进，Rubin | 进度符合预期， | 评级: 买入 | | 对华业务仍存疑 | | | | 收盘价: 美元 181.60 | 目标价: 美元 204.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: +12.3% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 8 月 29 日 今日焦点 Blackwell Ultra 部署推进顺利，但对华出口依然有不确定性：FY2Q26 收 入 467 亿美元，Non-GAAP 毛利率 72.7%，均超过之前指引上限。在不包 括中国市场收入的情况下，管理层指引 FY3Q26 收入中位数 540 亿美元 ，毛利率中位数 73.5%，并认为如果出口条件允许，H20 或额外产生 20- 50 亿美元的收入。管理层称基于 GB200 NVL72 的系统已顺利过渡到 Blackwell Ultra 系统，即基于 GB300 NVL72 的系统已经大规模出货，达每 星期 1000 个机柜，符合我们和市场的预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia reported record revenue of $46.743 billion for Q2 of fiscal year 2026, marking a 56% year-over-year increase and a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase, with net profit reaching $26.422 billion, a 59% year-over-year increase and a 41% quarter-over-quarter increase [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 of fiscal year 2026 was $46.743 billion, up 56% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter [1] - Net profit was $26.422 billion, reflecting a 59% year-over-year increase and a 41% quarter-over-quarter increase [1] - Adjusted net profit, not in accordance with GAAP, was $25.783 billion, a 52% year-over-year increase and a 30% quarter-over-quarter increase [1] Market Outlook - Nvidia's CEO highlighted the evolution of reasoning AI as a key driver for growth, indicating that the computational demand has increased significantly due to the capabilities of reasoning AI [3] - The company is targeting a market opportunity of $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure over the next few years, with significant capital expenditures from major cloud service providers reaching approximately $600 billion [4][10] Product Development - The Blackwell platform and NVLink 72 system were developed to meet current demands, achieving significant speed and energy efficiency improvements [4] - The Rubin platform is expected to contribute to revenue in the second half of the fiscal year, with a focus on AI applications [2][4] Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's products are widely adopted across major cloud platforms, providing a competitive edge in the AI infrastructure market [7] - The company is addressing the complexities of ASIC development, emphasizing the challenges and the need for comprehensive solutions in AI computing [6][8] China Market Potential - Nvidia estimates a potential market opportunity of $50 billion in China, with expectations of 50% annual growth in the AI sector [13] - The company is actively engaging with the Chinese government to facilitate market entry and product distribution [14] Future Projections - Nvidia anticipates that the data center infrastructure spending will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, driven by the increasing demand for AI capabilities [10][12] - The company is positioned to capture a significant share of this market, with estimates suggesting Nvidia's contribution to a gigawatt-level AI factory could be around $35 billion [11] Technological Advancements - The introduction of the Spectrum XGS product is aimed at enhancing data center interconnectivity, with significant market opportunities identified [16] - The company is focused on improving energy efficiency and performance per watt, which is critical for the profitability of AI factories [12][20]