Market Overview - The S&P 500 is showing minimal movement, up just one point and currently below the 7,000 level [1] - The Russell 2000 index is down 14 points, indicating a mixed market performance [1] Earnings Reports - Major earnings reports are expected from Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla, with IBM also reporting later [2][3] - These companies are significant market movers, and their revenue performance will be closely monitored, especially in relation to their AI investments [3] Sector Analysis - The communication services sector is anticipated to deliver its fourth consecutive year of double-digit earnings growth, trading at 19 times this year's earnings, which is relatively cheaper than the broader tech market [5] - Increased advertising spending and AI efficiency are expected to benefit this sector [5] - T-Mobile and AT&T are highlighted as strong performers within communication services, with AT&T gaining 5% following its earnings report [6] Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector, particularly banks, is viewed positively due to potential increases in M&A and IPO activity as deregulation progresses [7] - The introduction of digital asset market structures could lead to innovative products and earnings growth for financial companies [8] - Despite recent underperformance, the financial sector is seen as an opportunity for investment [9] Streaming Services - Netflix continues to grow its subscriber base and increase advertising revenue, despite a slowdown in overall streaming growth [12] - The company is expanding its international reach and finding ways to maximize revenue per subscriber [12] Market Resilience - The market is described as resilient, with expectations of normal corrections, particularly in midterm election years [14]

Core Viewpoint - Netflix Inc. reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations but provided a cautious outlook due to increased program spending and costs associated with the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. [1] Financial Performance - In the fourth quarter, Netflix achieved sales of $12.1 billion and earnings of 56 cents per share, both surpassing analysts' forecasts [9] - For the full year of 2025, Netflix reported total sales of $45.2 billion, reflecting a 16% increase from the previous year [9] - The company forecasts sales growth of up to 14% for 2026, projecting total sales of $51.7 billion with an operating margin of 31.5% [9] Spending and Investment Strategy - Netflix plans to increase its spending on films and TV shows by 10% in 2026, building on a programming budget of approximately $18 billion in the previous year [2] - The acquisition of Warner Bros. will incur an additional $275 million in costs for the current year, alongside $60 million already spent [3] - The company will pause share buybacks to conserve cash for the Warner Bros. acquisition [3] Strategic Initiatives - Netflix is pursuing the acquisition of Warner Bros. to gain access to a vast film and TV library, which will support new business ventures such as consumer products and video games [7] - The company has secured streaming rights to movies from Universal and Sony and is expanding its portfolio of live events and video games [3] Market Position and Competition - Netflix's subscriber base grew nearly 8% to over 325 million, despite a slowdown in new user growth and viewing [2][8] - The company is facing competition in its pursuit of Warner Bros., with Paramount Skydance Corp. offering $30 per share for the same assets [5] Future Outlook - Netflix executives expressed confidence in obtaining regulatory approval for the Warner Bros. deal, describing it as beneficial for consumers and innovation [6] - The company anticipates that advertising revenue will double in 2026, increasing from $1.5 billion in 2025 [8]

Economic Policy and Market Impact - President Trump's upcoming speech is expected to outline economic priorities and policy initiatives, with a focus on tax policy changes, infrastructure spending, regulatory approaches, and trade policy, particularly regarding China [1][2] - The speech's timing amid earnings season and critical economic data releases creates a complex backdrop for market reactions, as political rhetoric and corporate results will compete for investor attention [1][2] Economic Data Releases - Thursday will see a significant convergence of economic data, including the Q3 GDP revision and the November Core PCE Price Index, both released at 8:30am, which could lead to market volatility as investors assess growth and inflation data simultaneously [4] - The GDP revision will provide insights into consumer spending, business investment, and net exports, while the Core PCE Price Index will be crucial for understanding inflation trends [4] Company Earnings Insights - Netflix's earnings report will be critical for understanding the streaming industry's economics, including subscriber growth sustainability and content investment returns, especially in light of competition from platforms like Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video [5] - Intel's earnings will be a key indicator of its manufacturing transformation and competitive positioning in the semiconductor market, while GE Aerospace's results will provide insights into commercial aviation demand and defense spending trends [7] - Johnson & Johnson's earnings will offer perspectives on pharmaceutical demand and healthcare spending trends, while Procter & Gamble's results will assess consumer resilience in personal care and household products [8]

Core Insights - The weakness in bank stocks following Q4 results is viewed as a sell-the-news phenomenon rather than a reflection of fundamental issues with the quarterly numbers or management's outlook [1] - Bank earnings are not exceptional but are indicative of a steadily improving earnings outlook for the sector, supported by evolving estimates for Q1 2026 [2] Earnings Performance - As of now, Q4 results have been reported by 33.7% of the Finance sector's market capitalization in the S&P 500 index, showing total earnings up by +12.6% year-over-year with revenues increasing by +6.9% [4] - A total of 91.7% of the companies reported earnings per share (EPS) that beat estimates, while 66.7% exceeded revenue estimates [4] - The overall earnings for the Finance sector are projected to increase by +17.7% year-over-year, with revenues expected to rise by +9.4% [10] Upcoming Earnings - The Q4 earnings season is expected to gain momentum, with significant reports from Netflix and Capital One Financial scheduled for the upcoming week [8] - Netflix is anticipated to report earnings of $0.55 per share on revenues of $11.97 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of +27.9% and +16.8% respectively [21] - Capital One Financial is expected to report earnings of $4.07 per share on revenues of $15.3 billion, indicating year-over-year changes of +31.7% and +50.3% [23] Historical Context - The growth rates for the Finance sector's Q4 earnings and revenue are below those seen in the previous periods but remain within the historical range [12] - The revenue beats percentage is currently tracking below the historical average, while other metrics are within historical norms [17]

Core Insights - Visa, ExxonMobil, Oracle, and Netflix are identified as potential investments with the ability to join the $1 trillion market cap club by 2030, appealing to patient investors [2][19] Visa - Visa has a straightforward path to reaching a $1 trillion market cap, supported by high margins, reasonable valuation, and steady earnings growth [4] - In 2025, Visa's non-GAAP earnings per share grew by 14%, indicating strong growth potential that could lead to a market cap exceeding $1 trillion by 2030 [5] - Current market cap stands at $663 billion, with a gross margin of 77.31% and a dividend yield of 0.70% [6][7] ExxonMobil - ExxonMobil needs to double its market cap in five years to surpass $1 trillion, but it has strong fundamentals to achieve this [7] - The company generates significant free cash flow and high earnings, even with oil prices at four-year lows, and has reduced production costs [8] - ExxonMobil's corporate plan forecasts double-digit earnings growth through 2030, with a potential 15% annual growth rate that could double earnings [9][10] Oracle - Oracle nearly reached a $1 trillion market cap but faced a decline due to concerns over AI spending and debt [11] - The company is investing heavily in data center infrastructure to grow its cloud computing market share, with $523 billion in remaining performance obligations indicating high demand [12] - Despite being free cash flow negative, Oracle's aggressive AI investments present a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for investors [13] Netflix - Netflix's market cap has decreased from over $560 billion to under $400 billion due to valuation concerns and uncertainties regarding its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery [14] - The company is expected to grow earnings through global subscriber growth and pricing power, with potential benefits from the acquisition [15][16] - Netflix has demonstrated strong pricing power and effective content spending strategies, positioning it as a likely outperformer over the next five years [17]

The latest 13F filing from Andreas Halvorsen’s Viking Global Investors LP highlights a decisive shift toward large U.S. financials and mega-cap quality franchises, with several outsized additions that reshaped the top of the portfolio. The quarter was defined by aggressive scaling into core positions rather than incremental tuning. Below are the most significant moves.1. PNC Financial Services Group (PNC): +5,581,102 shares (+234.93%)Viking made its single largest move of the quarter in PNC, more than tripl ...

Microsoft commits USD 17.5 billion investment in India: CEO Satya NadellaMicrosoft plans to invest USD 17.5 billion (around Rs 1.58 lakh crore) in India to help build infrastructure, skills, and sovereign capabilities needed for the country’s AI future, CEO Satya Nadella said on social media platform X.“To support the country’s ambitions, Microsoft is committing USD17.5B—our largest investment ever in Asia—to help build the infrastructure, skills, and sovereign capabilities needed for India’s AI-first futur ...

Group 1 - The world's largest streaming service, Netflix, has made headlines with its $83 billion acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery, indicating a strong rebound in M&A activity in 2025, particularly in the second half [1] - The number of megadeals valued at $10 billion or more reached 27 in the first nine months of 2025, up from 21 in the same period of 2024, showcasing resilience in the global M&A market despite challenges [2] - North America is the most active region for acquisitions in terms of value, with the technology sector leading among industries [2] Group 2 - Union Pacific is acquiring Norfolk Southern in an $85 billion deal, while Alphabet is purchasing cloud security startup Wiz for $32 billion, reflecting ongoing deal-making momentum [3] - The US deal market is expected to see strategic acceleration in 2026, driven by high-value, transformative transactions [4] - Dealmakers are focusing on transformative growth strategies, leveraging resilient balance sheets and improving financing conditions to acquire capabilities in AI and next-generation technology [5] Group 3 - The Deal Barometer projects a 3% increase in corporate M&A deals in 2026, following an anticipated 10% advance in 2025, indicating a constructive environment for strategic deals [6]

Let's bring in Kevin Green, senior markets correspondent, right away to help set up the action today. And honestly, let's set up the week. So, let's talk about the Fed this week.Really, all eyes are focused on that and what the decision will be. And I guess it's not so much about the decision, but where do we go from here. So, what are you watching for this week on that front.>> Yeah, Diane, good morning. Look, I think the market's obviously going to be focusing on the commentary from Jerome Powell during t ...

Core Insights - Netflix has agreed to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's movie studio and streaming service for nearly $83 billion, with the deal expected to close after Warner Bros. Discovery spins off its cable division in Q3 of next year [2] - Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders will receive $27.75 per share upon completion of the deal [2] Stock Market Reactions - Netflix shares opened lower by less than 1% following the announcement, which is typical for acquiring companies due to the premium paid [3][4] - Warner Bros. Discovery shares rose about 3% but remained nearly 10% below the acquisition price, indicating skepticism about the deal's completion [5][9] - Shares of Paramount Skydance, Netflix's main competitor in the bidding war, fell by 5% [6][9] - Comcast, another bidder, saw its shares rise nearly 3% despite not being viewed as a serious contender [7] Regulatory Concerns - The White House and federal regulators have expressed opposition to the deal, citing concerns over Netflix's potential dominance in the streaming market [5] - Paramount Skydance has accused Warner Bros. Discovery of conducting an unfair bidding process, which may influence regulatory scrutiny [6] Impact on Related Companies - AMC Entertainment shares fell about 3%, with concerns that Netflix's streaming-first approach could alter Warner Bros. Discovery's theatrical strategy [8] - Cinemark shares dropped by 7% following the news [8]