Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a reduction in losses, with cost reduction and overseas expansion forming the foundation for recovery [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 40.509 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -4.955 billion yuan, indicating an expanded loss [7] - The report highlights the company's leading position in the industry, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, as well as successful overseas market expansion [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 91.994 billion, 94.447 billion, 116.194 billion, and 130.164 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -33.9%, 2.7%, 23.0%, and 12.0% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -7.039 billion, -5.808 billion, 2.785 billion, and 5.211 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of -151.9%, 17.5%, 148.0%, and 87.1% respectively [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -1.56, -1.29, 0.62, and 1.16 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [3] Operational Highlights - The company has achieved a 90% shipment ratio of N-type products in the polysilicon segment, with silicon consumption reduced to below 1.04 kg/kg.si [7] - In the battery segment, the company continues to lead in key competitive indicators such as A-grade rate and conversion efficiency, with a focus on the mass production of new technologies [7] - The company sold 16.13 million tons of polysilicon, maintaining a global market share of approximately 30%, and achieved a battery sales volume of 49.89 GW, continuing to hold the global first position [7] Investment Recommendations - The company is recognized as a dual leader in silicon materials and battery cells, with successful overseas market expansion in the component business [7] - The report adjusts profit forecasts, expecting net profits of -5.808 billion, 2.785 billion, and 5.211 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of -17, 35, and 19 times [7] - The target price is set at 27.84 yuan, based on a 45x PE for 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 40.509 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.955 billion yuan, down 58.35% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, with a net profit of -2.363 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.85% year-on-year. The gross margin turned positive in Q2 2025, indicating potential for continued improvement in profitability in the second half of the year [1][3] - The company has maintained a leading position in domestic distributed shipments and is making progress in overseas markets, achieving significant sales growth in regions such as Poland and Romania [3][4] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a high proportion of N-type silicon shipments and leading indicators in battery production efficiency [2][4] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to be 139.104 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of -2.33%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 13.574 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 47.24% [4][10] - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 41.650 billion yuan in 2023, with a notable decrease in subsequent years [4][10] - The projected net profit for 2025 to 2027 is -5.966 billion yuan, 2.939 billion yuan, and 5.104 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of -16.72, 33.94, and 19.55 [4][10]