This article presents a bullish perspective of Tesla stock on the basis of a modest recovery in brand image, a demand inflection in the Energy segment, and the long-term tailwind of full-stack AI and autonomy. This article follows up myRetail investor researching mostly semiconductors and fintech. Some general macro musings. My goal is to bring you timely and digestible research on the stocks that I cover.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TSLA either through stock ow ...

May 19, 2025 12:39 PM GMT Tesla Inc | North America Autonomy & Alchemy: Valuing Tesla in the Robot Era Nearly 15 years after going public, investors struggle to justify the value of Tesla as much as ever before. We expect this valuation 'problem' gets worse before it gets better. It's not too late to change. "If one knows what is really happening one knows what is going to happen." • H.G. Wells (The Shape of Things to Come) Vita post auto. Most investors value Tesla's core auto business at between $50 and $ ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Cathie Wood, through ARK Invest, has made significant investments in transformative technology stocks like Tesla, predicting a rise to $2,600 per share, which would lead to a market cap of nearly $10 trillion [1] - Currently, Tesla's stock trades around $275, with investor optimism present, but underlying issues suggest a potential decline rather than an increase to the predicted price [2] Group 2: Market Share and Revenue - Tesla's market share in the U.S. for electric vehicles has decreased from 75% in Q1 2022 to 43.5% in Q1 2025, indicating a slowdown in growth [3] - Revenue has declined by 20% year over year in the last quarter, affected by increased competition in both the U.S. and international markets [4] Group 3: Profit Margins - Despite price reductions, Tesla's gross margin has fallen from nearly 30% to under 18%, and operating margin has decreased from 16% to 7.4% over the past year, suggesting ongoing financial challenges [5] Group 4: Energy Segment - The energy pack segment of Tesla has shown strong growth, with a 67% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.73 billion, but this segment has low gross margins and limited market potential [8][9] Group 5: Future Projects - Tesla is focusing on autonomous vehicles and the Optimus humanoid robot, but progress has been slow, with no working prototypes available yet [10][11] - CEO Elon Musk has high revenue expectations for the humanoid robot project, but it remains uncertain when or if these profits will materialize [11] Group 6: Valuation Concerns - Tesla's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 151, significantly higher than the S&P 500's P/E of 20-30 and the typical automotive industry P/E of 10 or below, indicating overvaluation [13][14] - The disconnect between Tesla's stock price and its declining revenue suggests a higher likelihood of a stock price crash rather than a rise [15]