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Let's welcome in Liz Thomas, SoFi's head of investment strategy. She's with me here at Post9 as you see. Welcome back.>> Thank you. >> All right. So, that's the kind of market we're in right now where you've gotten a lot of commentary from a lot of different people um about where we are, whether we have a bubble.How do you feel about things. >> I saw a tweet on my way here that said there's a bubble in people talking about bubbles. >> Yeah, that was what Edard Denny said yesterday.There's a bubble in bubble ...

最近安信基金陈鹏的一番话让我感触颇深。这位22年经验的老将说成长投资要"顺人性而为"，更要警惕"伪成长"陷 阱。这话说得太对了！作为一个在股市摸爬滚打多年的老韭菜，我深知人性的弱点在投资中是多么致命。 陈鹏的投资方法论很有意思："在景气行业中寻找优秀公司"。这与我的投资理念不谋而合。我发现大多数散户（包 括当年的我）总是被短期热点牵着鼻子走，却忽视了最本质的东西——资金流向。 说到资金流向，不得不提一个有趣的现象：牛市多暴跌。这话听起来很反常识，但却是事实。相比于熊市，牛市中 的调整往往来得更激烈。为什么？因为人天生厌恶损失，一看到调整就容易匆忙出局。 我记得2015年那波行情，上证指数从5000多点跌下来时，多少人割肉在地板上？事后看都是血泪教训。但当时那种 恐慌情绪下，谁能保持理性？ 第一种是资金真的在出清。熊市里巨量抛盘没人接，但牛市流动性好，有些资金就会选择用巨量抛盘快速切换仓 位。大多数人相信"急跌不怕"，结果就被主力轻易逃脱。 第二种更常见——主力洗盘。牛市里大家都有点赚头，小震荡吓不到人，所以主力只能用更剧烈的震荡来恐吓散 户。这种调整往往会持续好几天，直到摧毁你的意志为止。 看看这张K线图就明 ...

在A股历史上，上证指数仅有157个交易日收在3800点以上，而今年已经出现了28个这样的交易日，这 无疑表明市场正处于牛市之中。 本轮牛市和前两轮牛市最大的不同是，A股市场出现了"老登股"与"小登股"之争，生动反映了2025年市 场的极致分化现象。 "老登股"与"小登股"的争论始于2025年9月初的一场交锋。当时，荒原投资董事长凌鹏公开质疑市场对 AI算力龙头"中际旭创"2027年净利润超过250亿元的预测，认为其过于乐观且线性外推的逻辑不合理。 随后，一位国盛证券的年轻分析师在社交平台上用"买你的白酒去吧，老登！"直接回怼。这句带有强烈 情绪和代际冲突色彩的话语迅速出圈，使得"老登"和"小登"从网络梗演变为A股投资风格对立的符号。 科技浪潮与国产替代，AI技术的爆发性发展、国产替代的强烈预期以及政策对新质生产力的倾斜，为 科技成长板块提供了强大的叙事基础和想象空间。市场相信，这些领域可能诞生能够定义未来行业标 准、形成生态垄断的企业。 与此同时，部分传统行业面临结构性挑战。例如，白酒行业遭遇"禁酒令"传闻、商务消费收缩、年轻消 费者偏好变化等冲击，其过去依赖渠道压货的增长模式似乎正在失效。 3. 资金流向与 ...

股市再现激情澎湃的成长行情。只是这回的主角，从五年前的高端白酒、新能源，变成如今的AI算力、机器人。对于广大投资者而言，或许 有人赚得盆满钵满，但多数人可能在谨慎观望。毕竟，成长股天然具有高收益与高波动性的特征，难以让人安心； 大量主题炒作为主的"伪 成长股"泡沫巨大，不易给人信心。 价值投资强调的安全边际与基本面深度分析，恰好能解决成长投资的"不安"与"难信"。有这么一家基金公司，他们在五年前的成长 牛市 中 低调修炼内功，以价值投资的强项去重构成长投资体系。而今年，成长阵营中也迎来了一批回报回撤兼优、配置相对均衡的基金，它们有 一个共同的前缀——"安信"。 价值投资辨析成长真伪 成长基金，是 牛市 战局里锋利的矛。截至9月 26 日，整个市场2025年以来涨幅翻倍的主动权益基金有3 1 只，多数为人形机器人、创新 药、算力等主题基金，只有少数是全市场选股的基金。 其中，安信基金成长投资部总经理陈鹏管理的全基产品就有三只，分别为安信成长精选、安信洞见成长、安信新回报。和押单一赛道的主 题产品不同，陈鹏管理的产品为成长宽基，用均衡布局的方式实现了极强的业绩锐度。与此同时，这三只产品今年以来最大回撤均小于 17 ...

回顾历史每一轮牛市，我们都可以发现一些"伪成长股"，短期股价涨幅名列前茅，但由于后续缺乏业绩支撑沦为"一地鸡毛"。因此，在投资组合构建中， 陈鹏领衔的安信基金成长投资团队将价值投资理念作为基础，寻找与经济运行主要趋势共振、景气上行能维持一年以上、业绩持续增长的"真成长"公司。 股市再现激情澎湃的成长行情。只是这回的主角，从五年前的高端白酒、新能源，变成如今的AI算力、机器人。对于广大投资者而言，或许有人赚得盆 满钵满，但多数人可能在谨慎观望。毕竟，成长股天然具有高收益与高波动性的特征，难以让人安心；大量主题炒作为主的"伪成长股"泡沫巨大，不易给 人信心。 价值投资强调的安全边际与基本面深度分析，恰好能解决成长投资的"不安"与"难信"。有这么一家基金公司，他们在五年前的成长牛市中低调修炼内功， 以价值投资的强项去重构成长投资体系。而今年，成长阵营中也迎来了一批回报回撤兼优、配置相对均衡的基金，它们有一个共同的前缀——"安信"。 价值投资辨析成长真伪 成长基金，是牛市战局里锋利的矛。截至9月26日，整个市场2025年以来涨幅翻倍的主动权益基金有31只，多数为人形机器人、创新药、算力等主题基 金，只有少数是全市场选 ...

成长，总被时代不断定义 从更深层次看，上述市场分化现象还有对投资本质的再思考，价值投资与成长投资并非对立关系，而是 看待企业的不同视角。传统价值股强调的现金流折现和新兴成长概念股关注的未来增长潜力，本质上都 是对企业价值的评估，只是时间维度和风险偏好不同。投资者应超越这种简单的二元分类，认识到投资 本质上是对企业创造价值能力的判断。 事实上，成长和价值的分野，在市场中会长期存在，但其内涵将不断演变。在当下中国经济转型升级的 关键时期，传统与新兴共舞，正是这一过渡期的生动写照。随着经济转型的深入推进，一些今天的成长 股，也会成为明日的价值股，而一些当下的价值股，也可以通过转型也能焕发新生。 对于投资者来说，重点是在守正与创新之间寻求平衡。过度追逐热点可能忽略风险，而完全固守传统则 可能错失机遇。 对于资本市场来说，本质是面向未来的，既反映现实，更承载预期。 （文章来源：上海证券报） 上述市场风格变化和年龄的对应关系，不仅反映了市场风格的结构性变化，更折射出深层次的社会经济 变迁和投资理念的代际更迭。这一分类不仅关乎股票特质，更暗含了不同年龄段投资者的偏好差异—— 年轻人追逐创新，中老年坚守价值。这种市场现象背后 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term demand expectations as a key driver for valuation and performance in the lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors [24][28] - It highlights the significant impact of short-term marginal conditions, particularly pricing and production/output data, on market sentiment and stock performance [41][48] Summary by Sections 1. Stock Price Review - The lithium battery market began its upward trend in late 2019, driven by European carbon emission assessments and the rise of new energy vehicle consumption in China [11] - The photovoltaic market saw significant growth from 2020 to 2021 due to global carbon reduction targets and supply constraints, leading to a surge in prices and stock performance [15] - The inverter segment experienced explosive growth driven by demand from energy storage solutions, but faced a sharp decline in 2023 due to inventory issues [19] 2. Key Drivers - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Lithium Batteries** - The report notes that the adjustment of long-term demand expectations directly influences performance and valuation, with significant growth observed in 2020 due to rising demand for new energy vehicles [24] - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Photovoltaics** - The report indicates that from 2020 to 2021, demand expectations for photovoltaics were revised upwards, leading to a bullish market sentiment, but concerns about peak demand in 2023 led to a decline in valuations [29] - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Inverters** - The inverter market's performance was closely tied to demand expectations, with significant growth in 2022 driven by European energy needs, but a subsequent drop in orders in 2023 [33] 3. Short-term Marginal Conditions - **Pricing** - The report highlights that price changes in lithium and silicon materials significantly affect stock prices, with stock prices often leading material price increases [41] - **Production/Output** - Monthly production and shipment data are critical indicators for stock performance, particularly in the energy storage sector, where visibility is limited [48] - **Quarterly Profit Growth Expectations** - Market participants often use quarterly profit growth expectations to gauge industry health, with stock prices typically peaking ahead of profit expectations [49] 4. Other Insights - The report notes that valuation levels are not the primary indicators of market peaks, as fundamental expectations play a more crucial role in determining market trends [59] 5. Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the energy storage market, projecting significant growth in global installations driven by improved demand expectations and favorable market conditions [62][65]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the ability to achieve stable returns in a volatile A-share market, with the fund managed by Shen Li showing over 66% return year-to-date as of September 18, 2023 [1] - Shen Li's investment strategy focuses on a unique balance between growth and value, avoiding the extremes of short-term speculation and static low valuations [1][2] - The strategy involves a two-layer screening mechanism, focusing on industry stability and key factors such as profitability and risk-reward ratio [1] Group 2 - The market is currently in a recovery phase, with sentiment indicators returning to normal levels and showing optimism without overheating [2] - Key sectors to watch include AI, which is expected to attract significant capital inflows, particularly in hardware, as the industry shows strong internal momentum [3] - The semiconductor industry is entering a new upcycle, characterized by improved quality compared to previous cycles, with surviving companies demonstrating product competitiveness [3][4] Group 3 - High-quality manufacturing companies that have expanded overseas have undergone a value reassessment, establishing new barriers to entry in global capacity [4] - The trend of consumer de-leveraging is expected to create structural opportunities for consumption recovery, with a focus on high-cost-performance products [4] - In the traditional liquor sector, leading companies with channel optimization and market share enhancement capabilities are anticipated to see valuation recovery post-industry consolidation [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing debate between different investment styles, particularly the contrast between "Old Deng" (value investors) and "Young Deng" (growth investors) [5][7] - A significant point of contention arose when Ling Peng, chairman of Wilderness Investment, questioned the market's forecast for Zhongji Xuchuang's net profit exceeding 25 billion yuan by 2027, arguing that such projections for component manufacturing companies are unrealistic [6] - The response from sell-side analysts highlighted the potential benefits for Zhongji Xuchuang as a leading company in the optical module sector, especially with the increasing importance of communication driven by AI advancements [6] Group 2 - The article notes a clear divergence in performance between value and growth investment styles, with the CSI Dividend Index down 0.92% this year, while the ChiNext Index surged by 41.04% [8] - The discussion reflects a broader sentiment among investors, with some expressing skepticism towards traditional value investments, while others emphasize the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach [10][12] - The debate also touches on the cyclical nature of markets, with some investors advocating for a cautious approach based on historical market cycles and the potential for significant losses during downturns [17]