内核：价值为锚，定义真正的成长 陈鹏的投资生涯，起步于研究，深耕于价值。2018年，他加入以价值投资见长的安信基金，并肩负起管理研究团队的职责。这段经历，让他将价值投资的 严谨内核，系统性地植入了对成长股的理解与实践中。 "投资成长股，投的是未来和变化。"陈鹏认为，在经济结构转型与新兴产业崛起的浪潮中，捕捉企业从稚嫩走向成熟过程中的超额收益，是成长投资的魅 力所在。但市场的过度想象容易催生估值泡沫，导致股价大幅波动。因此，成长投资的关键，首先在于用价值的尺子去衡量风险与机遇。 在A股市场，"成长"与"价值"的钟摆从未停止摆动。当市场风险偏好回升，成长风格往往熠熠生辉，但其与生俱来的高波动性，也让不少投资者望而却 步。如何在拥抱未来高成长的同时，管理好过程中的起伏，提升持有体验？这是成长风格基金需要帮助投资者克服的难题。 安信基金成长投资部总经理陈鹏，一位拥有22年证券从业经验、16年公募管理经验的投资老将，以其独特的"以价值分析驱动成长投资"的体系，提供了他 的答案。在他看来，成长投资并非追逐泡沫的冒险，而是一场基于深度研究、均衡布局与风险控制的"可承受的旅程"。陈鹏认为，尽管每位基金经理都有 相对个性化的成 ...

像在2025年四季度， A股有一家芯片相 关的新股上市，之后这个企业把募集到 的几十亿资金,买入了理财,这个操作 当时也引发了市场的热议。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 买理财这个动作本身是否合理，先不讨 论。但这件事本身，投资者可以看到， 新股上市的时候,企业可以获得一大笔 资金。 这笔资金不管是投入自己的主营业务, 还是买理财获得利息，都可以让企业的 短期收入、盈利，比之前提升一截。 新股上市后往往会迎来一段时间的高速 增长，这些企业也处于深度成长阶段。 企业的收入不会一直保持高速增长,当 企业收入逐渐接近天花板,收入增长速 度会放缓。 (2) 成长阶段 企业上市一段时间后,通过扩大生产、 投放广告等方式，快速增加客户、市场 份额,提高收入。 HAT I 此时企业的收入规模比较可观，这些收 入，不着急变现、分红，而是再投入生 产，扩大领先优势。 同时企业也舍得不计成本，大力从市场 上挖掘人才，给人才开出数百万甚至上 千万的薪酬。对人才不计成本的渴求, 也是这个阶段的典型特征。 我们俗称的,行业红利期,也是指这个 阶段。 (3) 成长价值阶段 其实从投资难度来说,成长风格更难 风险提示 但此时企业 ...

《 世界读书日，螺丝钉送你121本私藏经典好书 》 柏基的成长投资策略 最近看了一本今年新出的好书，《柏基投资之道》。 柏基是一家有百年历史的投资机构，总部位于苏格兰爱丁堡，主打的是成长风格。 13.64倍的回报。 大家好，我是银行螺丝钉，欢迎来到这期的螺丝钉带你读书。 「螺丝钉带你读书」也陪伴大家度过了三百多期，为大家讲解了很多有趣、经典的书籍和故事，比如《三十几岁，财务自由》、《如何读一本 书》、《战胜拖延症》等等。 还为大家详细介绍了几位投资大师：股神巴菲特、他的好搭档查理芒格和指数基金之父约翰博格。分享了他们的人生经历、投资生涯和投资的理 念。 大家可以点击下面链接查看部分螺丝钉带你读书合集： 从2004年到2024年，这20年的时间里，柏基旗下的标杆策略——长期全球成长策略，获得了约 超过了同期的标普500和纳斯达克100指数。 在投资的时候，我们会看到很多投资大师和经典的投资策略。 有的是价值投资，有的则是成长投资。 所谓的价值投资、成长投资是什么呢？ 企业生命周期的四个阶段 其实价值和成长风格划分，跟企业的生命周期有很大的关系。 企业从上市，到退市破产，中间可以分为四个阶段。 （1）刚上市，企业 ...

2025年以来，A股与港股市场呈现出多元的风格特征。成长赛道凭借政策催化、技术突破等多重利好， 成为资金追逐的核心方向，吸引着市场关注的目光。与此同时，在市场情绪偏向高弹性资产的氛围中， 亦有不少声音开始质疑价值投资在新市场环境下是否已经"失效"。 这种风格分化并非个例。回顾过去数十年的市场演变，成长与价值的轮动始终交替上演，每当成长风格 迎来阶段性盛宴时，价值投资的坚守总会面临一轮又一轮的拷问。市场的风格轮动是常态，但短期的热 度与喧嚣，往往容易掩盖长期投资的本质——真正能穿越牛熊、为投资者争取稳健回报的，往往是那些 锚定核心价值、注重风险平衡的投资逻辑。 从历史长期维度看，价值投资的有效性有着坚实的数据支撑。以近10年市场表现为例，中证800价值指 数年化收益率为6.79%，跑赢中证800成长指数的4.35%；波动方面，中证800价值指数的年化波动率为 17.79%，低于中证800成长指数的21.6%，展现出更强的抗跌韧性。 从风险调整后收益（夏普比率）来看，近10年中证800价值指数夏普比为0.42，高于中证800成长指数的 0.27，意味着每承担一份风险，通过价值投资有望争取丰厚的回报，追求"持有期体 ...

导读：在投资中最重要的函数是时间。爱因斯坦说过，复利是第八大奇迹。时间越长，复利的威力越大。对于基金经理 的研究来说，时间也是考察基金经理几乎最重要的因素。时间越长，能看到一个越真实的基金经理，也更容易建立对他 的信任。 我早在2009年刚入行的时候，就认识了彼时在东方证券资产管理业务总部做研究员的刚登峰。我们几乎是同一个时间 入行，见证了彼此在不同赛道的成长。我还记得第一次交换名片时，他笑着对我说"我叫刚登峰，刚刚登上山峰"。 入门就学价值投资 我们在访谈基金的时候，通常第一个问题是关于他的成长经历。在访谈了超过几百位基金经理后，我们发现一个人最初 接触的领域和方法论，对塑造他之后的投资框架会产生极大的影响。这就类似于大部分人都深受原生家庭的影响。比如 说，入行看科技股的人，投资方法会更容易偏向极致的成长。入行看金融地产的人，投资方法更容易偏向低估值。入行 看消费的人，投资方法更容易偏向质量。比方法论更重要的是，一个基金经理投资价值观的形成。 刚登峰是幸运的，他刚毕业就加入了东方证券资产管理业务总部，进入了一个非常好的"原生家庭"。当年的东方证券资 产管理业务总部尚在"低调发展"中，但大腕级投资管理人已然不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of investment strategies, particularly the tension between growth and value investing, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of these concepts in the context of modern economic changes [6][8][9]. Group 1: Growth vs. Value Investing - James Anderson acknowledges a widening divide between growth and value investing, suggesting that traditional value metrics may not suffice in a changing economic landscape dominated by tech giants like Microsoft and Google [8]. - The article highlights that while growth and value investing appear divergent, they share fundamental principles, such as the importance of honest long-term cash flow estimation and risk awareness [9]. - Anderson emphasizes the need for a longer time perspective and serious company research, valuing patience and governance sensitivity inherent in value investing [9][10]. Group 2: Historical Context and Literature - The article notes a lack of literature supporting growth investing compared to the extensive documentation of value investing, which has a rich tradition and numerous classic texts [11][13]. - It references Benjamin Graham's views on growth stocks, indicating that while he recognized their potential, he also warned of their speculative nature and preferred investing in larger, less popular companies [13][14]. - The article argues that the realities of the past decade have diverged from Graham's observations, with growth stocks outperforming traditional value stocks [15]. Group 3: Future Investment Landscape - The article posits that future returns are highly uncertain, urging a reevaluation of investment beliefs and strategies in light of complex market dynamics [18][30]. - It suggests that understanding structural changes in the global economy is crucial for predicting long-term investment outcomes, rather than focusing solely on short-term financial metrics [33][34]. - The piece warns against relying on historical volatility to forecast future performance, advocating for a mindset open to exploring various possibilities [38][39]. Group 4: Case Studies - The article compares Coca-Cola and Facebook, illustrating how traditional value metrics may misrepresent the potential of high-growth companies [64][69]. - It highlights that Coca-Cola's growth has stagnated, while Facebook has shown significant growth potential, challenging the notion of which company represents true value [66][70]. - The automotive industry is used as a case study, showcasing how different companies within the sector exhibit varying growth and value characteristics, with General Motors and Ferrari serving as contrasting examples [82][88].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving perspectives on growth and value investing, highlighting the need to reassess traditional investment principles in light of modern economic realities and the success of high-growth companies [5][6][7]. Group 1: Growth vs. Value - There is an acknowledged and widening divergence between growth and value investing, with traditional value principles struggling to account for the sustained high growth of companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon [7][8]. - The underlying economic structure has shifted, suggesting that reliance on historical value metrics may no longer be sufficient for investment success [7][8]. - Despite the differences, there are fundamental commonalities between growth and value investing, particularly in the importance of honest long-term cash flow estimation and risk management [8][9]. Group 2: Historical Context and Evolution - Historically, there has been a lack of literature supporting growth investing compared to the extensive documentation of value investing, which has created a bias in the investment community [13][14]. - The belief that "value will ultimately prevail" remains entrenched, despite evidence that growth strategies have outperformed passive indices over the long term [14][15]. - The past decade has seen a significant deviation from Graham's observations, with high-growth stocks yielding substantial returns, contrary to his predictions [18][19]. Group 3: Case Studies - Microsoft serves as a prime example of a company that has achieved remarkable long-term growth, with revenue increasing from $60 billion in 2008 to $110 billion in 2018, showcasing a compound annual growth rate of 24% [20]. - Google also exemplifies this trend, with its revenue growing from $21.8 billion in 2008 to $136.8 billion in 2018, reflecting the potential of high-growth companies to deliver exceptional returns [21]. - The article contrasts Coca-Cola's stagnation in stock value over the past 20 years with Facebook's growth trajectory, suggesting that the latter may align more closely with modern investment principles [70][75]. Group 4: Future Investment Landscape - The future of investing will likely be shaped by structural changes in the global economy, necessitating a shift in focus from short-term financial metrics to long-term transformative trends [40][41]. - The concept of "creative destruction" is becoming increasingly relevant, indicating that traditional investment strategies may need to adapt to a rapidly changing economic environment [41][42]. - Companies that can leverage network effects and platform positions may exhibit "super-linear growth," challenging traditional value investment assumptions [61][62].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes avoiding stocks with high turnover rates (30-50%) to prevent losses from high-frequency trading [1] - It suggests that quantitative strategies can be beneficial when they align with growth trends, acting as a support rather than a hindrance [1] - The management's cautious approach towards quantitative trading is seen as a positive consideration, promoting value, growth, and dividends [1] Group 2 - Financial data for various companies is presented, including metrics such as WMA, VWA, and financial performance indicators [3][4][5] - The article highlights the importance of sectors like power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, indicating a potential for growth in these areas [5] - Positive developments in the insurance and brokerage sectors are noted, with a potential for significant market shifts if trading volumes increase [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving perspectives on growth and value investing, highlighting the need to reassess traditional investment principles in light of modern economic realities and the success of high-growth companies [5][6][25]. Group 1: Growth vs. Value Investing - James Anderson acknowledges a widening divide between growth and value investing, suggesting that traditional value metrics may not suffice in a changing economic landscape dominated by tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon [7][20]. - Despite the differences, Anderson emphasizes that both growth and value investing share common principles, such as the importance of honest long-term cash flow estimation and risk management [8][25]. - The article references the historical context of growth investing, noting a lack of comprehensive literature supporting long-term growth strategies compared to the extensive documentation of value investing [12][14]. Group 2: Case Studies of Companies - Microsoft serves as a prime example of a company that has achieved significant long-term growth, with revenue increasing from $60 billion in 2008 to $110 billion in 2018, showcasing a compound annual growth rate of 24% [22]. - Google, now Alphabet, also illustrates the potential for sustained growth, with revenue rising from $21.8 billion in 2008 to $136.8 billion in 2018 [23]. - The article contrasts Coca-Cola's stagnation in stock value over the past 20 years with Facebook's growth trajectory, suggesting that Facebook may align more closely with value investing principles despite its high valuation metrics [82][88]. Group 3: Economic Structural Changes - The article posits that the current economic environment is undergoing profound changes, necessitating a reevaluation of investment strategies that account for systemic transformations rather than relying solely on historical performance [44][46]. - It highlights the shift from asset-heavy to knowledge-based economies, where companies like Facebook and Google thrive due to network effects and scale advantages [71][73]. - The discussion includes the implications of these changes for future investment returns, suggesting that traditional metrics may not adequately capture the potential of companies operating in rapidly evolving sectors [41][60]. Group 4: Industry Examples - The automotive industry is examined, with General Motors and BMW representing traditional value stocks facing challenges, while Ferrari exemplifies a company achieving high margins and cash flow despite low sales volume [100][104][107]. - The article notes that the automotive sector is experiencing significant disruption, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles and changing consumer preferences, which complicates traditional valuation methods [96][98]. - The contrasting performance of companies within the automotive sector illustrates the broader theme of how different business models and market positions can lead to varying investment outcomes [100][106].

2025年收官脚步渐进，A股市场从前期反弹进入4000点附近震荡整固阶段。期间市场结构性特征愈发鲜 明，AI算力产业链成领涨先锋，半导体芯片受AI需求大增、国产替代提速影响，设备、特种材料环节 企业股价走出独立行情。站在当前时点，"AI投资是否过热"、"震荡期该坚守成长还是转向低估值"成为 市场核心关切，嘉实基金李涛表示，AI赛道并非短期概念炒作，而是有真实产业需求与业绩兑现支 撑；盲目从成长主线转向低估值板块易错失产业红利，更应关注成长领域内具备技术壁垒、盈利模式清 晰的优质企业。 李涛认为，当前A股权益资产的长期价值值得期待，而驱动市场向前的核心引擎，始终绕不开AI产业化 掀起的科技浪潮。这轮科技行情与过往有着本质区别，其一，AI是全球化的史诗级技术革命，并非局 部领域的短期热度，它既能重塑人类生产关系，更能在生存发展层面带来颠覆性变革，如今产业应用路 径已愈发清晰，海外多家AI相关企业的营收、利润与市值同步创下历史新高，印证了赛道的长期潜 力。 其二，中国企业在本轮AI浪潮中的参与度与话语权达到前所未有的高度，通过自主创新突破，国内已 构建起从芯片、大模型到云服务、生态系统的完整产业链，企业不仅能在业绩 ...