Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on Samsonite, indicating potential revenue pressure in the first half of 2026 due to geopolitical tensions and market conditions [3]. Core Insights - Samsonite's Q4 2025 performance did not provide full-year guidance, leading to stock price pressure as the company may face revenue challenges in Q1 and Q2 2026 [3]. - Q1 2026 sales are expected to remain flat year-on-year, driven by growth in China, Japan, and South Korea, but offset by weak European markets and flat North American sales [3]. - The report anticipates a more challenging Q2 with continued geopolitical impacts, although the market has already priced in these expectations [3]. - For 2026, the report forecasts zero growth in sales adjusted for exchange rates, with improvements expected in all regions except Europe [3]. Company Overview - Samsonite International is the world's largest travel luggage company by retail sales, selling products under brands such as Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister [7]. - The company has a diversified geographic presence and a decentralized business model, allowing it to develop unique product solutions for various markets [7]. - Continuous brand investment positions Samsonite to benefit from sustained high growth in the global travel industry [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by product category: Samsonite (52.0%), Tumi (24.0%), American Tourister (16.6%), Others (7.4%) [8]. - Revenue by region: Americas (40.6%), Asia (36.2%), Middle East and Africa (2.4%), Europe (20.8%) [8]. Stock Information - Stock price as of March 25, 2026: HKD 15.21, with a market capitalization of USD 2.7 billion [8]. - Consensus target price from Refinitiv: HKD 24.32 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 0.9% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with a total revenue of $963 million, marking a positive turnaround [3][9]. - The gross margin improved to 60.3%, benefiting from increased contributions from Tumi and direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, as well as effective tariff hedging measures [9]. - The EBITDA margin reached 20.3%, indicating a sequential improvement of 4 percentage points, reflecting stable profitability [9]. - The company expects Q1 2026 sales to remain flat year-on-year due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, but anticipates potential positive growth in subsequent quarters [9]. Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2026-2028 are $3.559 billion, $3.725 billion, and $3.901 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 1.7%, 4.7%, and 4.7% [5][11]. - The net profit for 2026 is estimated at $294 million, with a growth of 1.8% year-on-year, and projected to increase to $321 million and $347 million in 2027 and 2028, respectively [5][11]. - The company maintains a PE ratio of 9.56 for 2026, with a target price of HKD 23.48 based on a 15x PE multiple [9][11]. Regional Performance - In Q4 2025, the Asia region showed a revenue increase of 5.1% year-on-year, with significant improvements in China and South Korea, while North America experienced a decline of 2.8% primarily due to a drop in Mexico's revenue [9][11]. - TUMI brand achieved stable growth despite high base effects, with revenue growth of 3.6% year-on-year, supported by new product development and enhanced marketing efforts [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][19] Core Insights - The company experienced a positive revenue growth in Q4 2025, with a revenue of $963 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% on a currency-neutral basis [3][9] - The company expects sales net revenue to remain flat year-on-year in Q1 2026 due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, but anticipates potential positive growth in subsequent quarters [3][9] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024A: $3,589 million - 2025A: $3,498 million - 2026E: $3,559 million - 2027E: $3,725 million - 2028E: $3,901 million - The company’s net profit is projected to be: - 2024A: $346 million - 2025A: $289 million - 2026E: $294 million - 2027E: $321 million - 2028E: $347 million - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 11.75 in 2024A to 8.11 in 2028E [5][11] Regional Performance - In Q4 2025, the Asia region showed strong growth with a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.1%, while North America experienced a decline of 2.8%, which improved to a growth of 8.2% when excluding Mexico [9][11] - The company’s brand performance in Q4 2025 showed TUMI achieving stable growth, while Samsonite and American Tourister improved their growth rates compared to Q3 [9][11] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in product innovation and marketing to strengthen its competitive advantage [9][11] - The international complex situation will need to be monitored closely as it may impact future sales [3][9]

Group 1 - Samsonite shareholders have approved resolutions for a U.S. dual listing to enhance exposure to U.S. investors and improve share liquidity [1] - The company, which owns brands like Tumi and American Tourister, plans to pursue the listing through American depositary shares [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reported that Samsonite (01910) experienced an 8% year-on-year decline in adjusted EBITDA for Q3, amounting to $143 million, which aligns with the bank's expectation of $139 million. The EBITDA margin was 16.3%, slightly above the forecasted 16.1% [1] Financial Performance - Net sales growth significantly slowed, with a year-on-year decline of 1% at constant exchange rates, an improvement from a 6% decline in Q2, partly due to a low base effect [1] - The company is trading at a forecasted P/E ratio of 10.2 times, which is still 1.3 standard deviations below its historical average [1] Management Insights - Management indicated that positive revenue momentum is expected to continue into October, with anticipated improvement in Q4 net sales growth despite a high base effect [1] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 59.6%, benefiting from a shift in product mix towards Tumi and direct sales channels, as well as effective measures to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] - Management is considering a dual listing next year in response to market conditions [1] Market Expectations - UBS anticipates that the market will react positively to the company's Q4 sales growth outlook and management's confidence in maintaining profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Samsonite (01910) experienced an 8% year-on-year decline in adjusted EBITDA for Q3, amounting to $143 million, which aligns with the bank's expectation of $139 million [1]. Financial Performance - The EBITDA margin was recorded at 16.3%, slightly above UBS's forecast of 16.1% [1]. - Net sales growth has significantly slowed, with a year-on-year decline of 1% at constant exchange rates, an improvement from a 6% decline in Q2, partly due to a low base effect [1]. Valuation and Market Position - Samsonite is currently trading at a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 times, which is still 1.3 standard deviations below its historical average [1]. - UBS is reviewing its investment rating and target price for Samsonite, which was previously set at "Neutral" with a target price of HKD 17.4 [1]. Management Outlook - Management indicated that positive revenue momentum is expected to continue into October, with an anticipated improvement in Q4 net sales growth despite a high base effect [1]. - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 59.6%, benefiting from a shift in product mix towards Tumi and direct sales channels, as well as effective measures to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [1]. - Management is considering a dual listing next year in response to market conditions [1]. - UBS anticipates that the market will react positively to the company's Q4 sales growth outlook and management's confidence in maintaining profitability [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Samsonite (01910) has seen a stock price increase of over 6%, currently trading at HKD 16.26 with a transaction volume of HKD 51.0383 million [1] - The company plans to hold a board meeting on November 12 to consider and approve the quarterly performance report for the three and nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1] - According to a report from Daiwa, the expected revenue decline for Samsonite in Q3 is projected to narrow to 1.4% due to a low base effect, aligning with management's guidance [1] Group 2 - Daiwa anticipates an overall improvement in the performance of the Tumi brand, while American Tourister is expected to remain the weakest brand [1] - The firm believes that with sustained global travel demand, a stronger recovery is expected by 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite (01910) shares rose over 6%, currently at HKD 16.26 with a trading volume of HKD 51.0383 million, indicating positive market sentiment ahead of the upcoming earnings report [1] Financial Performance - The board meeting is scheduled for November 12 to consider and approve the quarterly performance report for the three and nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1] - Daiwa's research indicates that due to a low base effect, Samsonite's third-quarter revenue decline is expected to narrow to 1.4%, aligning with management's guidance [1] Brand Performance - Expectations for Tumi's overall performance show improvement, while American Tourister remains the weakest brand [1] - The global travel demand is anticipated to support a stronger recovery in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has adjusted Samsonite's (01910) earnings forecast for 2025 down by 2%, but raised the 2026 earnings forecast by 3% due to stronger recovery potential in the Asian and North American markets. The rating remains "Hold" due to a lack of catalysts and low visibility. However, a stronger recovery is expected in 2026 supported by global travel demand. The target price has been slightly increased from HKD 15 to HKD 16 [1][1][1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 2% while the forecast for 2026 has been increased by 3% [1][1] - The expected revenue decline for Q3 is projected to narrow to 1.4%, aligning with management guidance [1][1] Group 2: Brand Performance - Tumi's overall performance is expected to improve, while American Tourister remains the weakest brand [1][1] - Adjusted EBITDA margin is anticipated to remain under pressure due to regional structural changes and operational deleveraging [1][1] Group 3: Market Insights - The gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin are expected to decline by 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 58.6% and 17% respectively [1][1] - There is cautious optimism regarding the turnaround of the Indian business in 2026, as major competitors have undergone significant restructuring, potentially leading to more rational market competition [1][1] - The dual listing plan in the U.S. is believed to be progressing, but may not materialize until mid-2026 at the earliest [1][1]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for Samsonite, but it discusses the company's performance and outlook in detail, indicating a cautious but optimistic long-term view from management [5][12]. Core Insights - Samsonite's revenue and profit declined in 1H25, with net sales at USD 1.662 billion, down 6.0% YoY, primarily due to weak demand in North America and Asia [2][8]. - Gross profit was USD 984 million, with a gross margin of 59.2%, down 1.0 percentage point YoY, affected by lower sales from higher-margin regions and increased promotions [2][8]. - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 19.4% YoY to USD 269 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2% [2][8]. - Management remains optimistic about long-term consumption demand despite short-term pressures from trade policy changes and macroeconomic uncertainties [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, net sales were USD 1.662 billion, down 6.0% YoY, with gross profit at USD 984 million, down 7.6% YoY, and adjusted net profit at USD 123 million, down 29.1% YoY [2][8]. - The adjusted free cash flow was USD 11.5 million, a decrease of USD 70 million YoY, with net debt increasing to USD 1.162 billion [2][8]. Regional Performance - Revenue in Asia was USD 626 million, down 7.3% YoY, with significant declines in China, South Korea, and Hong Kong [3][9]. - North America saw revenue of USD 561 million, down 7.7% YoY, with all brands declining, particularly American Tourister [3][9]. - Europe experienced modest growth, with revenue at USD 379 million, up 1.6% YoY, driven by strong performance in Germany [3][9]. Channel Performance - The DTC channel share rose to 39.6%, with e-commerce accounting for 11.3% and offline retail at 28.3% [4][10]. - Wholesale revenue fell 7.4% YoY, primarily due to cautious procurement by wholesale customers amid economic uncertainty [4][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is addressing tariff impacts through price increases and supplier negotiations, aiming to offset negative effects in North America [5][11]. - Management plans to enhance brand competitiveness through product innovation and expansion of the Tumi brand [5][11]. Management Outlook - Management expects improvement in the Chinese and Indian markets in the second half of 2025, with a generally stronger performance in the second half compared to the first [12].