创新研发能力已被验证，后备管线丰富。UBT251 成功授权诺和诺德，诺和诺德作为GLP-1 领域的两大 巨头之一，与联邦的BD 交易体现出UBT251 临床效果上有望赶超礼来Retatrutide 的潜力，同时诺和诺 德的存在也保障了海外临床的高效推进与上市后销售的推广的速度，我们预计UBT251 国内销售峰值有 望达43 亿元。UBT48128 为礼来orforglipron架构，临床前数据展现优效潜力。据公司投关材料，在饮食 诱导肥胖hGLP-1R 小鼠中，四周10mg/kg 剂量给药的UBT48128 对比Oforglipron，分别实现减重32.7% 和24.9%，p 值小于0.001，具有显著性。UBT48128预计2026 年提交中美IND 申请，具备出海潜力。 UBT37034 靶向神经肽Y2 受体，超重/肥胖适应症已取得美国1 期临床批件。 盈利预测与投资评级：我们维持原有预测，预计公司2025-2027 营业收入为138.6/150.0/162.6 亿元，同 比增速为0.7%/8.2%/8.4%；归母净利润分别为31.1/31.0/33.8 亿元，同比增速为17.0%/-0.3%/9.1%； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's innovative research and development capabilities have been validated, with a comprehensive advancement in its metabolic pipeline [7][15] - The company has successfully authorized UBT251 to Novo Nordisk, indicating strong clinical potential and efficient overseas clinical progression [15][27] - The company is expected to achieve peak domestic sales of UBT251 for weight loss indications at 4.3 billion yuan by 2032 [18][19] Summary by Sections 1. Short-term Pressure on Main Business - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.519 billion yuan (+4.8% YoY) and net profit of 1.894 billion yuan (+27.02% YoY) [12] - The demand for antibiotics has impacted main business profits, but the negative effects are expected to diminish as high base effects are eliminated [12][14] 2. Comprehensive Innovative Pipeline Layout - UBT251 has been successfully authorized to Novo Nordisk, showcasing the company's validated R&D capabilities [15] - UBT48128, based on the structure of Eli Lilly's orforglipron, has shown significant weight loss potential in preclinical studies [24] - UBT37034 has received FDA approval for clinical trials, targeting the neuropeptide Y2 receptor, which is crucial for obesity treatment [27] 3. Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 138.6 billion yuan, 150.0 billion yuan, and 162.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with YoY growth rates of 0.7%, 8.2%, and 8.4% respectively [31] - The net profit is expected to be 31.1 billion yuan, 31.0 billion yuan, and 33.8 billion yuan for the same period, with YoY growth rates of 17.0%, -0.3%, and 9.1% respectively [31] - The report maintains the "Buy" rating based on the successful R&D progress of UBT251 and the robust pipeline of UBT48128 and UBT37034 [31]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in its mid-year results for 2025, with a decline in antibiotic-related revenues but an unexpected strong performance in insulin exports [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.52 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1]. - Gross profit for H1 2025 was 3.92 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.89 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.0% [1]. - Revenue from intermediates was 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.1% year-on-year, while raw material drug revenue was 2.53 billion yuan, down 27.0% [1]. - The combined revenue from formulation products and external licensing was 3.98 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 65.9% [1]. Group 2: Product Performance - Revenue from antibiotic formulations, including semi-synthetic penicillins and cephalosporins, totaled 799 million yuan, down 10.0% year-on-year [1]. - Insulin products generated 961 million yuan in revenue, marking a substantial increase of 74.5% year-on-year [1]. - The animal health business reported revenue of 565 million yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year [1]. - Other formulations generated 221 million yuan, down 28.9% year-on-year [1]. - External licensing revenue was 1.43 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company has a comprehensive layout in the weight loss sector, with successful launches and applications for GLP-1 products [2]. - The company expects to submit clinical applications for its oral GLP-1 drug UBT48128 in 2026, which shows promising preclinical results [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 13.50 billion, 13.90 billion, and 14.75 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -1.86%, 2.97%, and 6.08% respectively [2]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 2.40 billion, 2.47 billion, and 2.74 billion yuan [2].