Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The dairy industry is characterized by its cyclical nature, influenced by the growth cycle of cattle, which takes approximately 13 months from calf to mature cow [1] - The industry has become increasingly large-scale since 2008, driven by food safety incidents and environmental regulations, leading to a consolidation of farms [2] - As of 2020, leading farms accounted for 43% of the market, although the overall competition remains fragmented with top companies holding less than 4% market share [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Milk price fluctuations are influenced by both supply and demand factors [3] - Supply factors include the price of imported milk powder, which serves as a substitute for fresh milk when prices are lower abroad [3] - Demand factors are driven by population growth and per capita dairy consumption, which is affected by income levels and health awareness [5] - Feed costs constitute about 70% of the raw milk sales cost, making it a significant factor in dairy farming profitability [5] Historical Price Cycles - The industry has experienced three major cycles from 2008 to present: - **2008-2013**: Milk prices fell due to the melamine scandal, leading to reduced demand [6] - **2013-2018**: Prices rose due to supply constraints from disease outbreaks and rising feed costs, followed by a decline due to increased imports [7] - **2019-Present**: Prices have been rising due to supply reductions from farm exits and supportive policies, although a recent oversupply has led to price declines starting in 2021 [9] Current Market Conditions - Current milk prices are around 3203, showing a slight decline from the previous week [9] - The industry is in a phase of bottoming out, with many farms facing losses due to falling prices and rising feed costs [10] - Factors such as rising beef prices and seasonal procurement pressures are expected to increase financial strain on smaller farms [11] Future Outlook - The second half of the year may see a balance between supply and demand, aided by government subsidies and new standards reducing reliance on imported milk powder [12] - Companies like YouRan are expected to benefit from a rebound in milk prices, with potential profit increases linked to higher proportions of premium milk sales [13] - The integration of supply chains and cost management strategies are expected to enhance profitability for leading firms [17] Company-Specific Insights - YouRan's revenue is significantly supported by stable demand from major customers like Yili, which accounts for 95% of its raw milk income [16] - The company has a diversified product range, including organic and premium milk, which helps mitigate risks associated with falling milk prices [14] - The overall industry outlook suggests that leading companies will benefit from cost reductions and a potential rebound in milk prices, with historical price cycles indicating a strong likelihood of recovery [23][24] Conclusion - The dairy industry is currently navigating a challenging environment with fluctuating prices and rising costs, but there are signs of potential recovery driven by policy support and market adjustments. Leading companies are well-positioned to capitalize on these changes through strategic management and product differentiation.

出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 7月11日，天润乳业发布业绩预告，预计2025年半年度归母净利润为-2600万元到-1800万元，继上年归 母净利润大幅下滑之后，终于陷入亏损。 目前原奶供过于求，市场竞争加剧，减值折旧成为拉低天润乳业净利润的重要因素。前几年天润乳业一 直在逆势扩张，造成负债率攀升，产能利用率下滑，在收入下滑的情况下，如何消化新增产能及高额负 债？ 天润乳业陷入亏损 逆势扩张拉低利润 从2021年10月起，原奶价格已经连续下滑了三年，累计跌幅近30%。原奶价格下行主要原因一是国内乳 制品市场增长停滞，消费不景气；二是前几年乳企扩张奶源，导致产量不断增长，出现供过于求。 在行业下行周期，天润乳业选择了逆势扩张。2024年10月，天润乳业发行可转债募资9.9亿元，主要投 向"年产20万吨乳制品加工项目"，剩余2.78亿元用于补充流动资金。该项目建成后将增加20万吨产能， 而2023年天润乳业总产能为35.12万吨，新增产能相当于现有产能的57%。 除此之外，天润乳业还在通过并购及对外投资的方式对外扩张。2023 年 5 月，天润乳业以现金收购的 方式从新农开发手中取得新农乳业 ...