乳业：周期之中辩趋势 摘要 中国乳制品市场短期虽有下滑，但长期刚需属性不变，消费者健康意识 提升和政策支持将驱动需求稳定增长。 原奶价格经历多轮波动，受需求、政策和国际市场影响，对牧场经营和 产业链产生深远影响。当前供需呈现供给过剩与需求疲软并存局面。 国内原奶自给率快速回升，下游乳企对上游奶源把控增强，与牧场形成 稳定战略合作关系，有利于平稳过渡原奶周期。 原奶价格下跌时，大型乳企通过持股上游、增加促销等方式维稳产业链， 中小乳企享受红利但竞争加剧，盈利能力承压。 判断原奶价格走势需关注生鲜牛肉需求供给增速差，存栏量下降趋势明 确，行业整体亏损面接近 90%，或预示 2026 年原奶周期有望反转。 乳制品行业销售额下降主要因价格下降，消费力疲软提升性价比，国家 倡导"喝得起的奶"，影响产品结构。白奶表现优于酸奶，下沉市场韧 性较好。 中国乳制品行业具备长久期、高壁垒特征，去库到位及资产减值损失收 敛后，经营逐步走出底部，原奶周期反转和需求回暖有望带来业绩与估 值双击。 Q&A 乳制品行业复苏的三个阶段是什么？ 乳制品行业复苏的三个阶段分别是：第一阶段，2025 年第二季度企业主动去 库存，尽管需求仍然承压且 ...

本刊记者 宋杰 | 上海报道 每天生产1000吨液态奶；预处理只需要10名操控人员；整个生产过程看不见一滴牛奶，却能看到许多机 器控制的阀门和管道……这些阀门和管道像工厂的"毛细血管"，将牛奶从原奶入厂到成品出厂的每一步 都串联成密闭的自动化流程。 这种"人少效率高"的场景，正是光明乳业旗下华东中心工厂的缩影。近期，记者跟随着光明乳业工作人 员的脚步，探访这座现代化乳品基地。 每天，满载30吨左右鲜奶的奶车从牧场驶来，工作人员将鲜奶输送至三层楼高的原奶存储罐中暂存。生 产1瓶牛奶，涉及原奶检测、均质杀菌、无菌灌装等数十道工序，关联着数十家原奶供应商和物流团 队。在光明乳业华东中心工厂，1分钟就能产出1200 瓶牛奶，后台系统产生325万条数据/分钟…… 品质背后是智能生产+大数据加持的实时护航，这正是"无人工厂"的硬核实力。 工厂大门本刊记者 宋杰I摄 奶牛戴上计步器 来到上海市紫东路489号，首先映入眼帘的便是光明乳业华东中心工厂门口那十几座醒目的储料罐。其 中，最大的奶罐高达三层楼，可容纳120吨牛奶，旁边还有约65吨的小罐，它们共同构成了工厂的"第一 站"——原奶储存区。 光明乳业华东中心工厂自控工程师 ...

新京报讯（记者吴梦真）9月25日，北京市西城区人民法院联合西城区工商业联合会召开新闻通报会， 发布一批贯彻落实民营经济促进法的典型案例。新京报记者了解到，针对一起消费者 "知假买假" 索赔 案，法院审理认定该行为超出合理消费需求，违背诚信原则，未支持其惩罚性赔偿请求。 新京报记者了解到，该案原告在某超市门店购买一瓶酸奶并支付货款8.5元。购买时产品已经超过30天 保质期。原告起诉超市门店，要求门店顶格赔偿1000元并返还货款。 法官表示，司法需要在维护消费者权益与保护经营者利益中间找到动态的平衡点，该案严格落实《最高 人民法院关于审理食品药品惩罚性赔偿纠纷案件适用法律若干问题的解释》，准确区分正当维权与恶意 索赔，依法惩治以"知假买假"为手段的索赔行为，有利于防止恶意利用惩罚性赔偿制度，损害正常经营 秩序。 超市门店认为，原告与他人事先合谋购买过期酸奶。两人在同一天一共购买9瓶酸奶，分别结账但都全 程录像，最后共同向门店提出索赔。超市门店提供的监控视频证实，二人确实在同一时空存在行动高度 协同的现象。 此外，根据关联案件的检索结果，该原告自2016年起对多家超市门店提起类似诉讼70余件。法院最终认 定，虽然超 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the development of the tourism industry in Zhangguang Village, which is set to begin operations during the National Day holiday, with a trial revenue of nearly 40,000 yuan in one month [1] - The town of Gangmuda, where Zhangguang Village is located, aims to build a high-quality urban-rural integration development system, with the town serving as the core of this initiative [1] - The article discusses the establishment of a dairy product company in Yangpei Village, which produces fresh milk, yogurt, and whey to supply local dining establishments and government canteens [1] Group 2 - Mingda Village has formed a labor service company to stabilize employment for villagers, with monthly incomes for participants reaching between 4,000 to 6,000 yuan [1] - To enhance the effectiveness of linking farmers with agricultural projects, Gangmuda Town has involved village collectives and residents in equity participation in three cultivated projects, ensuring long-term stability and profit-sharing [2]

Core Insights - The convenience store industry is experiencing a notable divergence in performance, with 7-11's single-store daily sales growth rate dropping to 0.2%, while Lawson and FamilyMart report growth rates of 17.9% and 16.2% respectively [1] - The focus of convenience store operations has shifted from merely selling products to becoming an integral part of community life through services and customer engagement [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - 7-11 leads in single-store daily sales but has seen a significant slowdown in growth, while competitors like Lawson and FamilyMart are thriving with higher growth rates [1] - Mature community convenience stores maintain a stable monthly repurchase rate of 65%, with member spending 35% more than non-members [1] Group 2: Product Placement and Strategy - Effective product placement is crucial; for instance, repositioning popular yogurt to eye level increased its sales by 30% [3] - Convenience stores should adapt their product offerings to align with local consumer habits, such as creating breakfast and dinner zones based on peak shopping times [3][4] Group 3: Community Engagement - Services like package collection can increase foot traffic, with a 40% conversion rate of customers picking up packages also making additional purchases [6] - Community events and targeted services for specific demographics, such as elderly residents, can enhance customer loyalty and drive sales [6][9] Group 4: Data Utilization and Customer Relations - Membership systems that track customer preferences can lead to higher engagement, with member spending accounting for 68% of total sales and a 25% higher average transaction value compared to non-members [9] - Utilizing data for inventory management while maintaining a personal touch in customer service is essential for building long-term relationships [9][11] Group 5: Knowledge Sharing and Community Role - Regular exchanges among franchise owners can provide valuable insights and strategies for improving store performance [11] - The convenience store has evolved into a community hub, facilitating information sharing and fostering relationships among residents [11]

Core Points - The "HiYouth Creative Year" 2025 event in Haidian District aims to provide an immersive experience for over 100,000 youth, integrating technology, culture, employment, and social activities [1][9] - The event features a "15-minute Haidian Campus" ecosystem, transforming key locations into welcoming spaces for new students [3][7] - Various activities include academic lectures, technology showcases, and a job fair with over 3,800 quality job positions available for students [7][9] Group 1 - The event is organized by multiple governmental bodies, including the Haidian District Committee and the Beijing Municipal Education Committee, highlighting the collaborative effort to support youth [1][9] - The main venue includes Haidian Park and the Zhongguancun International Innovation Center, which serve as central hubs for welcoming activities [3][7] - The event features 29 welcoming clubs and 23 university booths, showcasing local resources and opportunities for new students [3][4] Group 2 - The "School Canteen" concept introduces unique food and cultural products from various universities, enhancing the experience for students [4][7] - The event promotes a "City Welcome Gift" initiative, encouraging social media interaction for students to receive various local perks and discounts [9][11] - Future activities will continue to engage students with a series of themed events, reinforcing Haidian's commitment to youth development and community integration [11]

研究发现，饮食中摄取豆制品、纳豆、酸奶、海藻、蘑菇和粗粮较多的研究对象，其产后抑郁症状 较轻、身体状况更好，肠道内与短链脂肪酸产生有关的细菌相对量较多，而埃希氏菌等病原菌相对量较 少。 产后抑郁主要表现为情绪低落或悲伤、对曾经喜欢的事情丧失兴趣、睡眠障碍、食欲不振、疲劳、 无助和暴躁易怒等。公报说，产后出现抑郁症状的女性比例已达到25%至30%，且产后抑郁症的发病不 仅在围产期，而是可能持续至产后4到5年。 标签： 日本 肠道菌群 饮食习惯 抑郁 (资料图片) 日本京都大学、大阪大学等机构研究人员在新一期美国《国家科学院学报·交叉学科》上发表论文 说，团队以日本正在抚养0至4岁婴幼儿的344名女性为对象进行研究。他们分析研究对象的粪便样本， 计算出肠道菌群的多样性以及菌种占比情况，并评估她们的抑郁症程度以及与抑郁相关的身体症状，还 通过问卷了解睡眠情况和饮食习惯。 研究人员发现，产后抑郁症状越明显的女性，体内肠道菌群的多样性越低，特别是与短链脂肪酸产 生有关的细菌相对量要少。短链脂肪酸是肠道中的有益细菌分解膳食纤维产生的一类物质，它们是肠道 细胞的主要能量来源，对肠道健康至关重要。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the innovative business model of "Baking Memory," a large bakery in Zibo, which combines a supermarket-like experience with freshly baked goods, targeting family-oriented consumers in third and fourth-tier cities [2][15][46]. Group 1: Business Model and Experience - "Baking Memory" operates in a 3000㎡ space, resembling a supermarket where customers can select freshly baked bread and cakes while enjoying a family-friendly environment [2][11]. - The bakery features an open kitchen where customers can see the baking process, enhancing transparency and trust in product quality [20][23]. - The shopping experience is designed to be immersive, with customers using shopping carts to select products, similar to a grocery store [28][30]. Group 2: Target Market and Consumer Behavior - The business model aligns with the consumption habits of families in third and fourth-tier cities, where bulk purchases of baked goods are common [18][32]. - The average transaction value is around 50 yuan, with weekend purchases reaching up to 80 yuan, indicating a high volume of sales per visit [30][43]. - The bakery's pricing strategy is 20%-30% lower than traditional supermarkets, appealing to cost-conscious families [43][47]. Group 3: Product Offering and Quality - "Baking Memory" offers a wide range of products, including freshly baked bread, desserts, and beverages, catering to family and social occasions [35][46]. - The bakery emphasizes high-quality ingredients, with a commitment to using child-safe standards for raw materials, which is crucial for attracting family customers [41][43]. - The brand focuses on providing a "fresh" experience, with products served hot and straight from the oven, enhancing customer satisfaction [33][46]. Group 4: Future Expansion and Market Potential - The success of "Baking Memory" in Zibo has led to plans for further expansion, including a flagship store in Shanghai, indicating a scalable business model [44][46]. - The brand aims to tap into the overlooked market opportunities in smaller cities, suggesting a potential trend in family-oriented baking consumption [46][47].

Group 1 - The agricultural and animal husbandry sectors in Qinghai Province have shown a robust development trend in the first seven months of this year, with significant growth in highland specialty industries [1] - The sales revenue from agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery operations increased by 21.3% year-on-year, while related industries such as food processing, manufacturing, and wholesale retail saw a remarkable growth of 48.1% [1] - The sales revenue from crop planting rose by 22.8%, with highland specialty grains like barley and wheat experiencing a growth of 54.8%, and forage planting increasing by 61% [1] Group 2 - The aquaculture sector, particularly cold-water fish farming, reported a sales revenue growth of 35.5%, marking it as a new highlight in the agricultural sector [1] - Overall sales revenue in the livestock sector grew by 18.7%, with cattle and sheep farming dominating, accounting for over 60% of the total [1] - The sales revenue from the agricultural products processing industry surged by 100.4%, significantly outpacing upstream production sectors, indicating a notable increase in product value [2]

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Dairy Science Popularization White Book" at the 2025 Food and Health Communication Conference addresses public concerns regarding dairy consumption and its health implications, particularly for specific populations such as those with high blood pressure, high blood sugar, and high uric acid levels [1] Group 1: Nutritional Guidelines - Adults require approximately 800 milligrams of calcium daily, while adolescents need about 1000 milligrams to support bone health [1] - Special attention is needed for children, adolescents, pregnant women, and the elderly to ensure adequate calcium intake to enhance bone calcium accumulation or delay calcium loss [1] Group 2: Dairy Consumption for Specific Health Conditions - Dairy products like milk and yogurt are considered low purine and low glycemic index foods, making them suitable for individuals with hypertension, hyperlipidemia, hyperglycemia, and hyperuricemia [1] - Increasing dairy intake can improve dietary quality and help reduce the consumption of foods high in the "three highs" (high blood pressure, high blood sugar, high blood lipids) [1] - For individuals with high blood lipids and high blood sugar, it is recommended to choose low-fat or fat-free products without added sugars [1] - For those with high uric acid levels, increasing milk consumption along with adequate water intake can aid in uric acid excretion [1]