Valuation Methods - The article discusses various methods sell-side analysts use to determine a company's "fair" value, highlighting the DCF method as complex and prone to biases such as overconfidence and anchoring [1] - The multiples approach is noted for its simplicity but relies on the assumption that peer companies are fairly priced, which historical data often contradicts [1] - Reverse valuation is introduced as a method that starts from market price and discount rate to uncover the free cash flow assumptions embedded in the price, providing a more straightforward assessment of market beliefs [1] Free Cash Flow Analysis - A Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) model is utilized to ascertain what truly belongs to shareholders, calculated as Earnings + Amortization – CAPEX – average acquisition cost = FCFE, while ignoring working capital and debt changes [1] - The analysis emphasizes three critical numbers: earnings, amortization, and investments, which are essential for accurate valuation [1] Forecasting and Discounting - The H-model is applied for forecasts, featuring a 10-year two-stage growth fade with terminal growth aligned to the risk-free rate, specifically the 10-year government bond yield [1] - All cash flows are discounted using the cost of equity formula: RFR × beta + 5% ERP, resulting in a clear and noise-free valuation of the business [1]

Core Insights - The fifth round of the 2025 DooTrader Charity Trading Cup concluded successfully on December 14, 2025, with the sixth round starting immediately after on December 15, 2025, inviting traders to compete for a spot in the final island championship [2][15] - The competition saw a resurgence in spot gold prices, reaching approximately 4,350, influenced by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, showcasing the decisive execution of participants [2][3] Performance Highlights - In the fifth round, the "Breaking Wave" group demonstrated a mature trend trading mindset, with total profits exceeding $10,000, particularly highlighted by champion Wu L****, who made strategic trades in XAU/USD [6][7] - The "Rising Star" group achieved remarkable single-round earnings exceeding $30,000, with a return rate of 3,326%, earning an additional $1,000 bonus for their performance [9][10] - Champion Xue Y**** from the Rising Star group showcased strong strategic resilience, capturing significant profits through timely trades in gold, including a single trade yielding $20,167 [10][12] Tournament Structure and Future Events - The tournament features a total prize pool of 3 million RMB, with 2 million distributed across six monthly rounds, and the final champion set to receive 1 million RMB [12] - The "Kick Challenge" mechanism allows participants to challenge the top three from the previous round for additional bonuses, enhancing competitive dynamics [12][13] - The upcoming sixth round requires a registration fee of $500, with participants on the MT5 platform eligible for a 5% bonus on their earnings [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing strong bullish momentum but face resistance levels around 4060/4085, with support at 4021/4000. A buy recommendation is suggested near 4020 with a target profit of 70-100 points and a stop loss at 4010 [2][3] - The driving factors for gold's movement include escalating geopolitical risks, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and political instability in multiple countries, which are increasing demand for safe-haven assets [3] Group 2 - For EUR/USD, the market is currently in a consolidation phase after reaching a high of 1.163, with a focus on the easing of political tensions in France and Germany, which counterbalance the delayed impact of U.S. employment data [5] - Key support levels are identified at 1.150/1.154 and resistance at 1.169/1.174, with a trading strategy suggesting a short position near 1.166 [7] Group 3 - GBP/USD is supported by hawkish comments from the Bank of England, but U.S. risk aversion is limiting its gains, resulting in a doji candlestick formation [9] - Key support levels are at 1.323/1.328 and resistance at 1.343/1.348, with a recommendation to enter a long position near 1.330 [11] Group 4 - GBP/JPY experienced a downward breakout after initial fluctuations, reaching a significant Fibonacci retracement level, with a bearish candlestick formation [13] - Resistance levels are noted at 203.7/204.4 and support at 201.3/202, with a recommendation to enter short positions between 203-203.5 [15]

Group 1 - The article provides a step-by-step guide for selecting currency pairs based on different trading styles, emphasizing the need for alignment between trading style and currency characteristics [1][2][5]. - Day trading is characterized by short holding periods, relying on technical analysis for small profit margins, with recommended pairs including EUR/USD and USD/JPY due to their high liquidity and low spreads [2][4]. - Swing trading focuses on capturing medium-term trends over days to weeks, with suitable pairs like AUD/USD and GBP/USD driven by fundamental factors such as commodity prices and policy expectations [5][7][8]. Group 2 - Carry trade involves long-term positions to earn interest rate differentials, favoring high-yield currencies while managing exchange rate risks [12][15]. - Event-driven trading capitalizes on market reactions to economic data releases, with pairs like USD/JPY and USD/TRY being highlighted for their volatility during such events [4][22]. - Algorithmic trading strategies include statistical arbitrage, monitoring price discrepancies between currency pairs, and utilizing low-latency execution for optimal performance [14][15][26]. Group 3 - The article outlines a five-step self-assessment method for traders to evaluate their risk tolerance, time commitment, and tool compatibility when selecting currency pairs [17][19][21]. - Recommended currency pairs for different trading styles include EUR/USD and XAU/USD for day trading, AUD/USD and GBP/USD for swing trading, and AUD/JPY and USD/ZAR for carry trading, each with specific risk management parameters [21][22][23]. - Common pitfalls for novice traders include mismatching trading styles with currency pairs, overlooking overnight costs, and overtrading less liquid pairs [24][25][26].

Group 1: Major Currency Pairs - EUR/USD is influenced by the policy divergence between the Fed and ECB, with the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in 2022 boosting the dollar [1]. - Economic data comparisons such as GDP, CPI, and various economic indices are critical for EUR/USD analysis [1]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on European energy supply, affect the euro's performance [2]. - The USD/JPY pair is driven by the interest rate differential and the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy, with adjustments in policy leading to significant currency movements [4][5]. - The USD/JPY is also affected by global risk sentiment, with a negative correlation to the VIX index [6]. - GBP/USD is shaped by the Bank of England's policy challenges, particularly balancing persistent inflation above 10% with recession risks [9]. - Post-Brexit trade issues and high energy prices further complicate the GBP/USD outlook [10][11]. Group 2: Commodity Currency Pairs - AUD/USD is primarily driven by commodity prices, especially iron ore, which constitutes 40% of Australia's exports [13]. - Changes in Chinese demand, particularly in real estate, significantly impact AUD/USD [14]. - The USD/CAD pair is influenced by oil prices, with Canada being the fourth-largest oil exporter globally [18]. - The Canadian economy's reliance on U.S. trade, with over 75% of exports going to the U.S., also plays a crucial role in USD/CAD dynamics [20]. Group 3: Safe-Haven Currency Pairs - USD/CHF is affected by European political risks, with the Swiss franc acting as a safe haven during crises [22]. - The Swiss economy's low inflation and high current account surplus support the long-term appreciation of the franc [23]. - Gold (XAU/USD) is influenced by geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases, with significant demand seen in 2022 [27]. Group 4: Emerging Market Currency Pairs - The USD/TRY pair is impacted by extreme inflation in Turkey, which exceeded 80% in 2023, alongside irrational monetary policy decisions [32]. - The Turkish lira's depreciation is exacerbated by insufficient foreign reserves covering less than three months of imports [33]. - Geopolitical risks related to Turkey's relations with the U.S. and Europe also affect investor confidence [34]. Group 5: Fundamental Analysis Tools - Economic indicators are prioritized differently for various currency pairs, with CPI differences and central bank decisions being top indicators for EUR/USD [36]. - Data release timings, such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI, are critical for market volatility [37]. - A comprehensive analysis framework is essential for understanding the dynamics of currency pairs, focusing on both long-term structural factors and short-term events [46].