Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The global stablecoin market is experiencing rapid growth, with the circulation volume increasing from less than $120 billion at the beginning of 2023 to $215 billion by the first quarter of 2025. The on-chain transaction volume in 2024 is projected to reach $5.6 trillion, equivalent to 40% of Visa's payment transaction volume [10] - Circle's IPO on June 5, 2025, reflects a positive market sentiment towards the stablecoin sector, with its stock price rising by 168.48% to $83.23, resulting in a market capitalization of $18.356 billion [2][5] - The emergence of new issuers, such as JD.com, is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the stablecoin market, which is currently dominated by Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), holding nearly 90% market share as of 2024 [10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The stablecoin market is rapidly evolving, with significant applications in cross-border remittances and digital payment systems. Traditional remittance methods take 3-5 days and incur an average cost of 6%, while stablecoins can facilitate near-instantaneous and low-cost value transfers [10] Key Players - Major players in the stablecoin market include Circle and JD.com, which are actively promoting the use of stablecoins in various payment scenarios, thereby expanding their reach beyond cryptocurrency trading [10] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with issuance qualifications, those with technological expertise in blockchain, and firms holding relevant licenses [10]

Core Viewpoint - Circle Internet Group's IPO marks a significant milestone as it becomes the first publicly traded company focused on stablecoins, with its stock debuting at $83.23, a 168.48% increase from the offering price, resulting in a market capitalization of $18.4 billion [2]. Group 1: IPO Significance - The IPO represents a pivotal moment for the stablecoin sector, being the first public offering for a core issuer of "digital dollars" [4]. - It signals a transformation towards regulatory compliance, as Circle has obtained necessary licenses in key markets like Singapore and the EU [4]. - The business model of Circle, which involves earning interest from user deposits, mirrors traditional banking practices, indicating a blend of fintech and conventional finance [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Risks - Circle reported a net profit of approximately $157 million for 2024, primarily from interest income generated by investing USDC reserves in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds [5]. - The company's profitability is highly dependent on interest rates; a shift to a lower rate environment could significantly compress profit margins [12]. - The concentration of the stablecoin market, dominated by USDT and USDC, poses systemic risks, as issues with either could destabilize the entire market [13]. Group 3: Governance and Market Dynamics - Circle's governance structure features a dual-class share system, allowing founders to maintain significant control post-IPO, which raises concerns about decision-making centralization [9]. - The involvement of major asset management firms like BlackRock and Ark Invest in the IPO indicates strong institutional interest in the stablecoin market [9]. - The stablecoin's operational model is akin to a "shadow banking" system, lacking traditional banking protections, which could lead to liquidity risks during market stress [15]. Group 4: Regulatory Landscape - The IPO coincides with a global push for stablecoin regulation, highlighted by the U.S. Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act, which establishes a regulatory framework for payment stablecoins [18]. - Asian financial hubs are exploring regulatory frameworks to enhance cross-border payment efficiency, indicating a growing acceptance of stablecoins in traditional finance [19].

Core Insights - The introduction of the US "GENIUS Act" and Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" marks a significant step towards the mainstream acceptance of stablecoins in the financial market [1][5]. Regulatory Developments - Recent regulations in the US and Hong Kong are pushing for the compliance of stablecoins, indicating a competitive race for dominance in the future monetary system [2][5]. - The "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoin reserves must be backed by high liquidity assets, such as cash and short-term US Treasury securities, at a minimum ratio of 1:1 [5][7]. - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" establishes a licensing system for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers, with notable participants including JD.com and Standard Chartered Bank [5][6]. Market Dynamics - Stablecoin-related stocks have experienced significant volatility, with companies like ZhongAn Online and Circle seeing substantial price increases following regulatory news [3][4]. - The total market capitalization of stablecoins is projected to exceed $230 billion by June 2025, with Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) accounting for approximately 90% of this market [4][7]. Future Projections - Analysts predict that the total supply of stablecoins could reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, creating a demand for $1.6 trillion in short-term Treasury securities [7][8]. - The market for Real World Assets (RWA) is expected to grow significantly, potentially reaching $16 trillion by 2030, as stablecoins facilitate the integration of traditional finance with the crypto world [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Circle, a major player in the digital currency sector, has successfully launched the first IPO in the stablecoin industry, achieving significant oversubscription and a substantial market valuation [1][2]. - Circle's IPO on June 5 has garnered 25 times oversubscription, increasing the number of shares issued from 32 million to 34 million, with an expected price of $31 per share, leading to a market capitalization of $6.9 billion [1]. - Circle is recognized for its USD Coin (USDC), which is the second-largest stablecoin globally, holding approximately 29% market share as of the end of March, with a circulating supply of about $61 billion as of May 29 [1]. Group 2 - Financial data indicates that Circle has shown strong growth, with projected revenues of $772 million in 2022, $1.45 billion in 2023, and $1.676 billion in 2024, reflecting a consistent upward trend [2]. - Despite fluctuations in net profit, Circle's profitability remains high, with a projected net profit of $156 million in 2024, down from $268 million in 2023 [2].

币圈传来大消息，稳定币第一个IPO来了，稳定币巨头Circle预计于6月5日在美国纽约证券交易所 （NYSE）上市，这将是稳定币领域的首个IPO。 当然最后，业内同时也认为，稳定币虽然将促进挂钩货币在微观经济层面的渗透，但也会带来反洗钱、 反恐怖融资的问题，未来也将考验金融监管者。 国盛证券称，此次Circle若成功上市，将进一步推动美国稳定币市场的发展，同时加速传统金融用户尤 其是机构用户对稳定币的接受进程。稳定币自诞生以来，成为加密货币市场参与者重要的工具——提供 价值储备和计价工具，同时作为各类加密货币现货/期货交易的保证金，是最为重要的一类加密货币工 具。若Circle成功上市，对市场将是重要的利好。 从业务来看，Circle的盈利模式其实就是简单的"吃利息"，每一枚发行的USDC都有1美元的法定货币储 备支持。Circle将这些储备金存放于安全的短期资产中，例如美国银行存款和由贝莱德管理的短期美国 国债基金，在高利率环境下可产生可观的利息收益。 从基本面看，2023年Circle净利润约2.68亿美元，2024年净利润约1.56亿美元。根据招股书数据，2024 年Circle总营收约16.76亿美元 ...

Group 1 - Circle, a major player in the stablecoin market, plans to go public on June 5 at the New York Stock Exchange, marking the first IPO in the stablecoin sector [1][2] - The recent legislative developments in the US and Hong Kong regarding stablecoins have sparked increased interest and activity in the stock markets, including A-shares [1][5] - Circle's stablecoin, USD Coin (USDC), has a market capitalization of approximately $60.9 billion, making it the second-largest dollar-pegged stablecoin globally [2][3] Group 2 - Circle's IPO is expected to raise $600 million by issuing 24 million shares, with a price range of $24 to $26 per share, leading to a fully diluted market valuation of $6.2 billion [3] - The stablecoin market is projected to exceed $250 billion globally by May 2025, with USDT and USDC accounting for over 85% of this market [4] - The recent legislative frameworks in the US and Hong Kong are anticipated to enhance the acceptance of stablecoins among traditional financial institutions and improve market liquidity for Real-World Assets (RWA) [6] Group 3 - The digital currency sector has seen a resurgence in activity, with the digital currency concept stocks in the A-share market rising by 0.45% recently, and notable individual stocks experiencing significant gains [7] - China Everbright Holdings, a strategic investor in Circle, has also seen its stock price rise significantly, reflecting the market's positive sentiment towards the upcoming IPO [7]