Core Insights - Vanguard index funds tracking European and international stocks have shown strong performance in 2023, attributed to changes in U.S. trade and fiscal policy [1] - The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF and Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF have gained 29% and 28% year to date, respectively, outperforming the S&P 500 by 15 and 14 percentage points [4][8] - Despite recent outperformance, European and international stocks have historically underperformed U.S. stocks over longer periods [4][8] Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF tracks over 1,200 stocks in major European markets, with significant weight in the U.K., France, and Germany, and sectors like financials, industrials, and healthcare [4] - The ETF has gained 29% year to date, but over the last five years, it has only added 53%, lagging behind the S&P 500 by 43 percentage points [4] - The expense ratio for the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF is 0.06%, significantly lower than the average of 0.81% for similar funds, making it an attractive option for investors [5] Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF measures over 3,800 companies in developed international markets, with a focus on Europe and the Asia-Pacific [7] - This ETF has advanced 28% year to date, also outperforming the S&P 500, but has only gained 46% over the last five years, trailing the S&P 500 by 50 percentage points [8] - The expense ratio for this ETF is 0.03%, compared to an average of 0.85% for similar funds, providing a cost-effective option for diversified international exposure [9] Market Trends and Analysis - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by about 11% in the first half of the year, benefiting international stock investments when measured in U.S. dollars [11] - Diverging monetary policies, with the European Central Bank cutting rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve held steady, have influenced investor preferences towards international equities [12] - Despite recent trends favoring international stocks, analysts predict that U.S. equities will continue to outperform, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 7% advance for the S&P 500 over the next year [14]

Core Insights - U.S. stocks, particularly large-cap stocks, have shown strong performance over the past decade, with the S&P 500 index achieving a 15.3% annualized return, while the MSCI World ex-USA Index returned 8.4% [1] - In contrast, during the first nine months of the current year, the MSCI World Index outperformed the S&P 500, returning 25.3% compared to 14.8%, suggesting potential for international stocks to continue outpacing U.S. equities [2] ETF Analysis - The Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) tracks the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index, investing in 8,700 stocks with significant allocations in Europe (38%), Pacific (25.4%), and emerging markets (27.6%) as of September 30 [5] - The Vanguard Total International Stock ETF returned 26.6% for the first nine months of the year and has a 10-year annualized return of 8.3%, with a low expense ratio of 0.05% compared to the average of 0.85% for similar funds [6][7] - The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) aims to replicate the performance of the FTSE Developed Europe All Cap Index, including companies across various market caps in major European markets [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is experiencing a partial shutdown due to political divides, which may pose risks to the economy if prolonged [1][7] - Despite the shutdown, the S&P 500 index has risen approximately 14% in 2025, indicating that the market has largely overlooked the political situation [3][7] - The iShares MSCI Poland ETF has significantly outperformed the S&P 500, rising 57% in 2025, highlighting strong performance in Polish stocks [4][7] Group 2 - Caution is advised against investing in ETFs that have already seen substantial gains, as entering late may not yield favorable results [5] - Investors should consider their knowledge of Poland's economy and stock market before making significant investments in country-specific ETFs [6] - More diversified international ETFs, such as the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF and the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF, are also outperforming the S&P 500, offering broader exposure without the need for specialized knowledge [8]

Core Insights - DoubleLine Capital is focusing on purchasing emerging market bonds, particularly those denominated in local currencies, as they are seen as a favorable investment opportunity [1][3] - The current investment environment is characterized by rising interest rates, which is a significant shift from the historical trend of falling rates over the past 45 years [2] - Emerging markets have a lower debt-to-GDP ratio compared to the U.S. and are benefiting from a weakening dollar, making local currency bonds attractive due to higher yields and better economic fundamentals [3] Investment Strategy - Gundlach suggests allocating at least 20% to local-currency emerging market bonds due to their higher yields and stronger budget fundamentals [3] - The firm is short on 30-year Treasurys in some portfolios and prefers shorter durations, specifically 3 to 5-year Treasurys [5] Market Predictions - Gundlach anticipates inflation to remain around 3%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, especially with potential changes in Fed leadership [6] - There is a concern that the Fed may shift to a more inflationary policy, potentially leading to negative real interest rates [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Vanguard Utilities ETF is identified as a favorable investment option amidst a crowded market of ETFs, particularly for those looking to invest $1,000 now [7]. Group 1: ETF Performance and Selection - Vanguard offers a wide range of 97 ETFs, which can be overwhelming for investors [1]. - The top-performing Vanguard ETFs this year are primarily international funds, with the Vanguard International High Yield Dividend ETF and Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF leading the list [3]. - Many of Vanguard's best-performing ETFs have high valuations, with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 27.6, significantly above the historical average of 16.1 [5]. Group 2: Vanguard Utilities ETF Analysis - The Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) owns 69 U.S. utility stocks, including major companies like NextEra Energy and Duke Energy, and has shown a year-to-date performance increase of around 15% [8]. - The P/E ratio of the Vanguard Utilities ETF is 21.4, which is lower than the S&P 500's earnings multiple, indicating a more favorable valuation [9]. - The ETF is expected to perform well if the stock market continues to rise, particularly due to the increasing demand for power from data centers supporting artificial intelligence [10]. Group 3: Economic Considerations - In the event of a stock market downturn, utility stocks are typically seen as safe havens, with most utilities having low exposure to tariff impacts [11]. - The Vanguard Utilities ETF is considered a "happy medium" investment, likely to perform better than many equity ETFs during economic downturns while potentially offering lower returns compared to other Vanguard ETFs in a strengthening economy [12].