| 中信建投证券股份有限公司 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关于金凯（辽宁）生命科技股份有限公司 2025 | 年上半年度 | | | | 跟踪报告 | | | | | 保荐人名称：中信建投证券股份有限公司 | | 上市公司简称：金凯生科 | | | 联系电话：010-5605 保荐代表人姓名：逯金才 | | | 2488 | | 保荐代表人姓名：张林 联系电话：010-5605 | | | 1430 | | 一、保荐工作概述 | | | | | 项 目 工作内容 | | | | | （1）是否及时审阅公司信息披露文件 | 是 | | | | （2）未及时审阅公司信息披露文件的次数 | | 0次 | | | （1）是否督导公司建立健全规章制度（包括但不 | | | | | 限于防止关联方占用公司资源的制度、募集资金 | | | | | 是 | | | | | 管理制度、内控制度、内部审计制度、关联交易 | | | | | 制度） | | | | | （2）公司是否有效执行相关规章制度 | 是 | | | | （1）查询公司募集资金专户次数 | | 每月一次 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also provides insights into international and domestic supply - demand dynamics for various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and grains. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are provided, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, BMD palm oil 11 closed at 4529.00 with a previous - day decline of 0.51% and an overnight increase of 0.71% [1]. - Exchange rate data for major currencies are also presented, such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.22 with a decline of 0.05% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For example, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China had a spot price of 9820 with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included, with Brazilian soybeans having a CNF premium of 307 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 495 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from August 25 - 29 indicates that temperatures will be below normal and precipitation will mostly be near to below the median. Some parts of the US Midwest will experience rainfall and temperature drops [4][6]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased by 17.5% according to AmSpec and 13.61% according to ITS compared to the same period last month [7]. - Indonesia plans to increase its crude palm oil production from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 [8]. - Nebraska's soybean pod count is at a 22 - year high, while Indiana's is slightly lower than 2024 but higher than the three - year average [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 20, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 79,066 tons, a 152% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 114,900 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from the previous day [14]. - China's palm oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 47.22% month - on - month and 46.79% year - on - year. Soybean imports decreased by 4.86% month - on - month but increased by 18.39% year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased by 4.61% month - on - month and 56.63% year - on - year [14][15]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 81.9% [16]. - The Eurozone's CPI annual rate in July was 2%, and the monthly rate was 0%. The Indonesian central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [17]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 20, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate was 7.1384, up 25 points (CNY depreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan [19]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On August 20, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 3.705 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 12.337 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 16.042 billion yuan [23]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

伯克希尔Q2营业利润同比下降3.8%， 净利润暴跌59%，现金储备3440亿美元 接近历史高位，但为三年来首次下降，对特朗普政府实施的严厉关税政策发出 强烈警告。 8月2日，伯克希尔二季度交出了一份喜忧参半的成绩单。营业利润111.6亿美元较去年同期下降3.8%，虽然降幅有限，但这一数字反映出公司核心业务面临的 结构性压力。更值得注意的是，净利润123.7亿美元同比暴跌59%，这一巨幅下滑很大程度上受到投资组合估值变化的拖累。 伯克希尔在财报中称，关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成威胁，警告称，" 几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能 面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩 "。受贸易政策影响，旗下服装和玩具品牌收入出现不同程度下滑。 尽管股价较历史高点下跌超过10%，该公司在2025年上半年并未回购任何股票。现年94岁的巴菲特此前宣布将于今年底卸任CEO职务，Greg Abel将接任这一 角色。 以下为伯克希尔二季度财报要点： 营收 ：Q2营收925.15亿美元，市场预期919.63亿美元，上年同期936.53亿美元； 营业利润 ：Q2营业利润111.6亿美元，同比下降3. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yealink Network, anticipates a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 due to uncertainties in the international trade environment, despite stable gross margins and ongoing sales efforts [1][2]. Financial Performance - Yealink Network projects revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between 2.64 billion and 2.667 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0% to 1% [1]. - The expected net profit is between 1.224 billion and 1.251 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8% to 10% [1]. - The company's non-recurring net profit is estimated to be between 1.14 billion and 1.165 billion yuan, down 7% to 9% year-on-year [1]. Business Operations - The company has made orderly progress in expanding its sales operations, but the uncertainties in the international trade environment have disrupted short-term business developments [1]. - The transition period for the relocation of overseas production capacity has caused a temporary impact on order shipments [1]. - Despite macroeconomic challenges, the company's gross margin remains stable, although the expense ratio has increased due to lower-than-expected revenue growth and the impact of tariff policies [1]. Market Environment - Yealink Network has previously disclosed risks related to international trade policies and tariffs, highlighting the potential challenges posed by the current unstable global political environment and complex geopolitical situations [2]. - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. government since 2025 has raised concerns about increased tariff costs, which could compress profit margins and affect the stability of overseas order deliveries [2]. - The company is closely monitoring policy developments and has deployed strategic measures to adapt to potential changes in trade policies [2]. Shareholder Actions - Recently, the company announced that its actual controller's concerted action party, Xiamen Yiwanlian Information Technology Service Co., Ltd., plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 1.8 million shares, representing no more than 0.14% of the total share capital [3]. - The reason for the reduction is attributed to personal funding needs of certain shareholders, with the selling price determined based on market conditions at the time of the sale [3].

Performance Forecast - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 90 million and 95 million RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a decline of 57.06% to 59.32% compared to the same period last year [3][4] - The net profit for the same period last year was 221.24 million RMB, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 205.26 million RMB [3][4] Reasons for Profit Decline - The decline in profit is attributed to a decrease in revenue from the company's main sales regions due to fluctuating international trade policies and macroeconomic conditions, despite good growth in emerging markets [3][4] - The company has chosen not to reduce expenses in the face of external pressures, opting instead to continue investing in research and development and market expansion to build momentum for future growth [3][4] Strategic Focus - The company will continue to implement its "331" strategy, increasing investment in research and development in health-related hardware and software, smart kitchen and bathroom products, and new business areas [4] - The company aims to leverage its three core advantages of innovation, design, and intelligent manufacturing to achieve differentiated competition in niche markets and actively explore new markets and customers for high-quality development [4] Production Expansion - To mitigate the impact of US-China trade tensions, the company is accelerating the construction of its production base in Vietnam, with initial shipments expected to begin in June 2025, which will open new opportunities for the company's export business [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the global oil and fat market operated in a complex and changeable pattern, with significant price differentiation among the three major oils and fats. The core drivers were the re - balancing of supply and demand, international trade policy games, and the transformation of the biodiesel industry. The global supply of oils and fats tended to be loose overall, while the structural evolution on the demand side became a key variable, with biodiesel policies dominating the long - term logic [4][101]. - The import volume of the domestic oil and fat market in the first half of the year was restricted by international trade frictions and customs clearance policies, and the consumption was weak overall. Inventory differentiation further highlighted structural contradictions [4][5][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 H1 Oil and Fat Market Review - In January, affected by the USDA report, CBOT soybeans rose, and domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures prices also increased. Spot - end basis prices changed accordingly [13]. - In February, palm oil futures prices soared due to Indonesia's policies and Brazil's soybean harvest progress, while soybean oil was affected by domestic soybean customs clearance and state - reserve sales, and rapeseed oil declined slightly [13]. - In March, after China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated, palm oil futures prices fell, and soybean oil futures prices fluctuated with the influence of South American soybeans [21]. - In April, palm oil and soybean oil futures prices declined due to factors such as OPEC + production increase and Brazilian soybean arrivals, while rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated [21]. - In May, palm oil futures prices fluctuated, soybean oil futures prices first rebounded and then declined, and rapeseed oil futures prices rose [27]. - In June, palm oil futures prices rebounded, soybean oil futures prices rose, and rapeseed oil futures prices fell. Spot - end basis prices generally weakened [29]. Global Oil and Fat Supply Analysis Global Soybean Supply Remains Loose - Global soybeans have had three consecutive years of production increases. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 426.8 million tons, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The global soybean ending inventory is expected to reach 125.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise to 22.08% [30][33]. - The weather in the US soybean - corn belt has improved, and the soybean good - to - excellent rate is at a good level, with a high probability of a bumper harvest [37]. Global Rapeseed Supply Recovers Significantly - In the 2024/25 season, global rapeseed production decreased due to frost in Europe and the Black Sea region. However, in the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 89.773 million tons, with significant increases in major producing countries [42][45]. - The overall growth of Canadian rapeseed is good, although there are some risks in the Manitoba region [53]. Global Palm Oil Enters the Seasonal Production Increase Period - In the first half of 2025, Malaysian palm oil production recovered after a low in January - February, and Indonesian palm oil production also reached multi - year highs in March - April [54]. - Indonesia raised the export tax on crude palm oil in May, and Malaysia lowered the export tariff in July. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy is restricted by subsidy funds [57][58]. Overseas Biodiesel Demand Analysis Global Biodiesel Production Trend - In 2025, global biodiesel production is expected to decline, with only Indonesia and Brazil showing an increase. The EU, the US, China, and India are expected to see a decrease in demand [61][62]. - Brazil will increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% starting from August 1, which will boost soybean oil consumption [62]. Current Situation of the US Biodiesel Industry - In the first half of 2025, the US biodiesel industry faced pressure from falling crude oil prices and the 45Z policy. Industry profits were poor, and production was low. However, US soybean oil exports increased [64][67]. Impact of Future US Biodiesel Policies - The proposed US RVO plan for 2026 and 2027 will significantly increase the mandatory biodiesel blending volume, and the new 45Z policy will enhance the competitive advantage of US soybean oil. If implemented, it will have a long - term positive impact on the global oil and fat market [74][75]. Domestic Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Analysis Import - From January to April 2025, domestic direct imports of soybean oil decreased, and soybean imports decreased in the first four months and then increased in May. Rapeseed oil direct imports increased, while rapeseed imports decreased. Palm oil imports decreased in the first four months, and the import volume may gradually recover after June [76][81][86]. Consumption - The overall consumption of domestic oils and fats in the first half of 2025 was weak. Soybean oil consumption was affected by supply, and consumption is expected to pick up in the second half of the year. Rapeseed oil consumption was constrained by high inventory, and palm oil consumption was affected by price differentials and is expected to increase in the second half [87][88][92]. Inventory - As of June 20, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The national commercial inventory of rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, and the palm oil inventory decreased in the first half of the year and then rebounded [93][95][100].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on July 1, 2025. Index futures and some commodity futures such as gold, PTA, and soybean meal are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation, while some other commodity futures like alumina, zinc, and crude oil are expected to have a relatively weak oscillation. Treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Forecast Highlights - Index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation, with specified resistance and support levels [2]. - Ten - year Treasury bond futures T2509 and thirty - year Treasury bond futures TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. - Gold futures AU2510 are likely to have a relatively strong oscillation, aiming to break through resistance levels [2]. - Silver, copper, aluminum, and other futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while alumina, zinc, and other futures are expected to have a relatively weak oscillation, with respective support and resistance levels [3]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI all increased in June, indicating an improvement in the economic climate [8]. - Policies such as tax incentives for foreign direct investment and the issuance of QDII investment quotas have been introduced [8]. - International events include trade negotiations, sanctions, and interest rate - related remarks, which may impact the financial and commodity markets [9]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On June 30, 2025, index futures showed different trends, and it is expected that in July 2025, they will generally have a relatively strong oscillation [14][22]. Treasury Bond Futures - On June 30, ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond futures declined. The central bank's policies and market liquidity conditions are important factors affecting the Treasury bond market [37][42]. Gold and Silver Futures - Gold futures AU2510 and silver futures AG2508 showed different trends on June 30, and different trends are expected for July 1 and the whole month of July [47][53]. Base Metal Futures - Copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends on June 30, and different trends are expected for July 1 and the whole month of July [57][62]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil, fuel oil, and other energy and chemical futures showed different trends on June 30, and different trends are expected for July 1 and the whole month of July [114][118]. Agricultural Futures - Soybean meal futures M2509 showed an upward trend on June 30, and a relatively strong oscillation is expected on July 1 [128].

Core Viewpoint - The global automotive industry is facing significant challenges, including a slowdown in electrification trends, shrinking demand, intensified market competition, and an unstable international trade environment. In response, many overseas automotive brands are implementing layoffs and business contractions to reduce costs and improve efficiency while awaiting a new cycle of industry expansion [4][9]. Group 1: Layoff Plans and Reasons - Major overseas automotive companies and suppliers have announced layoffs affecting nearly 100,000 employees across key markets such as China, North America, Europe, and Japan [4]. - Volkswagen plans to lay off 35,000 employees by 2030, with 7,000 already laid off, primarily in Germany, to reduce costs and address competitive pressures [5][6]. - Ford is set to cut 4,000 jobs in Europe and 350 positions in its connected vehicle software team due to market tensions and cost-cutting measures [8]. - General Motors will lay off 2,200 employees across various locations in response to U.S. tariffs and trade changes [5]. - Nissan plans to cut 20,000 jobs over two rounds due to weak sales and trade uncertainties, with a significant portion from manufacturing [5][7]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Volkswagen's CFO reported a 37% decline in operating profit to €2.9 billion despite a slight increase in revenue, highlighting ongoing financial challenges [6]. - Volvo aims to cut costs by 18 billion Swedish Krona (approximately 136 billion RMB), primarily affecting white-collar positions [7]. - Bosch announced a global layoff of 5,500 employees, including 3,800 in Germany, due to slow electrification trends [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The automotive industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with layoffs reflecting a phase of contraction following high investments in electrification amid rising competition from Chinese brands [9]. - Chinese automotive brands, such as BYD and Geely, continue to expand, contrasting with the contraction seen in many overseas companies [9].

根据市场公开信息及5月22日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募重阳投资近期对1家上市公司进行了调研， 相关名单如下： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 1）颀中科技 （重阳投资参与公司特定对象调研&现场参加） 调研纪要：颀中科技的主要终端客户包括京东方、华星光电、天马、维信诺等。2025年第一季度，公司 内销收入占比约64%，外销收入占比约36%。显示业务方面，高清电视占比约38%，智能手机占比约 43%，笔记本电脑约7%，显示器约6%；非显示业务方面，电源管理占比约68%，射频前端占比超 20%。美国此次加征关税对公司影响有限，但需关注国际贸易政策变化及全球半导体市场需求变动。公 司晶圆来源超过半数来自境内晶圆厂，如SMIC、晶合集成、粤芯、华虹等，其余来自境外晶圆厂，如 台积电、力积电、世界先进、UMC等。2025年第一季度，大尺寸显示驱动芯片封测占营收比36%，小 尺寸占营收比56%。 机构简介： 上海重阳投资管理有限公司（简称重阳投资）是在成立于2001年的上海重阳投资有限公司的基础上于 2009年设立的采用合伙经营模 ...

Market Demand - The demand for N121 carbon black is increasing due to its essential role as an industrial raw material, particularly in industries such as rubber, plastics, and coatings [2] - The rise of new industries, including electric vehicles and renewable energy, is significantly driving the demand for N121 carbon black, contributing to price increases [2] Supply Factors - The supply of N121 carbon black is concentrated among a few large companies, leading to limited availability and a tight market [2] - The production capacity and technological capabilities of established chemical companies play a crucial role in determining the supply of high-quality N121 carbon black [2] - The presence of technological barriers makes it difficult for new suppliers to enter the market, further constraining supply and pushing prices higher [2] External Influences - International trade policies and environmental regulations can impact the price of N121 carbon black by affecting import and export dynamics, thus influencing supply and demand relationships [3] - Stricter environmental regulations increase production costs for carbon black manufacturers, indirectly raising the market price of N121 carbon black [3] Market Competition - The competitive landscape of the N121 carbon black market, including the number of suppliers and market share distribution, directly affects pricing [3] - Market monopolies can lead to higher prices, while intense competition may pressure suppliers to lower prices to gain market share [3]