转自：证券时报 人民财讯1月11日电，德昌股份(605555)1月11日发布2025年度业绩预告，经财务部门初步测算，预计 2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为1.6亿元到2亿元，与上年同期相比，同比减少61%到 51%。2025年公司汽车零部件业务仍然保持快速增长态势。家电业务因受国际贸易政策影响，叠加行业 竞争不断加剧，导致价格下行，以及新产能开始投产运营，尚处于爬坡阶段，摊销费用同比有所增加， 综合影响了毛利率；同时，受美元汇率波动影响，本期公司汇兑收益约-1800万元，较上年同期减少约 6000万元。 ...

不过，全球贸易活动和世贸规则体系仍有韧性。报告指出，尽管2024年至2025年全球贸易环境高度紧 张，关税等贸易限制措施急剧加码，但全球贸易活动保持比预期更强的增长，多边贸易体系依然是世界 贸易的主要制度基础。报告将2025年全球货物贸易增长预测从0.9%上调至2.4%，并指出贸易活动能在 地缘政治紧张和关税累积背景下保持增长，反映出贸易需求更强，具有超出预期的韧性。报告指出，人 工智能相关产品强劲拉动全球贸易，其贸易额虽然只占全球贸易的不到六分之一，但贡献了近一半的全 球贸易增长。同时，基于世贸组织规则的多边贸易体系也展现出较强韧性，据统计，当前72%的全球货 物贸易仍在最惠国待遇规则下进行，证明了尽管单边措施频发，但大部分贸易仍依赖多边规则体系支 撑。 报告对未来贸易前景给出了较为谨慎的判断，指出中期全球贸易将因地缘政治与不确定性而放缓，尤其 是主要区域增速将放缓，全球经济前景风险上升。根据世贸组织模型预测，2026年多国将持续出台贸易 限制与保护措施，全球需求承压，货物贸易增速将比2025年有所回落。针对这一下行压力，报告呼吁各 国加强相互合作并推动有关改革，以应对当前更具风险的贸易环境。报告建议各国以 ...

【粕类周报20251212】USDA报告指引性有限，粕类近远月走势 से र 日期：2025-12-12 ZHESHANG FUTURE 【粕类周报20251212】USDA报告指引性有限，粕类近远月走势分化 | 核心观点 2025-12-12 | 核心观点 2025-12-12 | | --- | --- | | * 合约: m2605 ♥ 观点： 豆粕 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 | * 合约: RM605 ® 观点： 菜籽粕 震荡下行阶段 后期价格中枢有望下降 | | 》 逻辑： 国外方面，美豆新年度基本面偏紧对CBOT大豆价格重心支撑仍在。但南美新作丰产预期持续，压 | 业 逻辑: 国外方面,2025/26年度全球荣籽供需格局竞松,压制荣籽价格重心,关注后续国际贸易政策变动 | | 制CBOT大豆价格走势。短期预计CBOT大豆偏弱震荡。关注后续南美天气变化指引。 | 指引。国内方面，加荣籽反顺捐初裁使其进口面临较高保证金要求，叠加加菜粕关税限制，菜粕后续供应预期 | | 国内方面，年底前大豆及豆粉供需仍相对充足，一季度供应缺口在前期阿根廷大豆采购及后续中美采购预期下 | 持续收紧。但下游水产养 ...

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (000338.SZ) does not engage in gas turbine business and its power generation products can be exported to high-end markets such as the United States and Europe, with revenue figures being non-public information [1] Group 1 - The company has clarified that it does not have a gas turbine business [1] - The company's power generation products are eligible for export to high-end markets, including the United States and Europe [1] - Revenue figures related to these products are considered non-public information [1] Group 2 - The company is monitoring international trade policy changes and advises stakeholders to refer to the latest tariff policy documents [1] - The company will continuously pay attention to and comply with policy requirements [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For soybean meal, the upside space is limited, with pressure at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. Abroad, the US government shutdown persists, lacking data guidance, and the market focuses on Sino-US policy agreements and the return of US soybean orders. Domestically, near - term soybean and soybean meal supplies are relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure is expected to ease. The cost - end support for soybean meal is strong, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff policies and the growth of South American soybeans [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the upside space is limited, with pressure at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract. Globally, the 2025/26 rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, suppressing the price. Domestically, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and downstream aquaculture is in the off - season. The supply is expected to tighten, but demand is also weak. In the long - term, the global supply - demand situation will suppress the price, and in the short - term, it will stabilize with the rebound of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and Sino - Canadian trade relations [3]. - For different participants: Traders with inventory can hedge against price drops by short - selling a small proportion; those seeking to build inventory can hedge on the futures or options market to prevent sudden price increases. Feed mills can also take similar hedging measures [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The market expects a downward adjustment in US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report, which may tighten the fundamentals and support the price. The price has been oscillating at a high level between 1100 - 1160 cents/bu. Analysts' average estimate of the 2025/26 yield is 32.85 bu/acre, a decrease from the September estimate. The export and ending inventory are expected to be adjusted downward. The current US soybean has a cost advantage over Brazilian soybeans, but there is still pressure on further price increases without large - scale purchases from China [16][17]. - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.02/bu, a 6.40% week - on - week decrease and a 35.87% year - on - year decrease. As of November 6, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.0886 million tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume since the beginning of the crop year was 8.89 million tons, lower than the previous year [18]. 3.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean sowing is more than half - completed, but the progress is behind last year due to local rainfall. The sowing in Argentina has started. China's procurement supports the Brazilian soybean premium, which remains oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to future weather conditions and China's procurement [26][27]. - As of November 8, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 38.4%, lower than last year's 66.1% and the five - year average of 57%. Anec expects Brazilian soybean exports in November to reach 4.26 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.47 million tons [27]. 3.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The international rapeseed price has stabilized and rebounded due to Canada's biofuel production incentive plan and the rebound of oilseed soybean prices. The 2025/26 global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons, with an increase in consumption demand of 2.06%. The trade volume may decline due to trade policies, and the inventory and stock - to - use ratio are increasing [52][53]. - As of November 2, Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 21.2% week - on - week to 188,400 tons. The cumulative exports from August 1 to November 2 were 1.4233 million tons, a 54.1% decrease from the previous year. The commercial inventory was 1.3187 million tons [53]. 3.4 Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - The soybean meal futures continued to oscillate. Although the Sino - US trade policy has changed, the cost of US soybeans is still higher, and the near - term supply is loose, suppressing the upward space. However, the overall import cost increase provides strong support for the price [63][64]. - In October 2025, China imported 3.932 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 3.387 million tons from September and a 17.25% increase from October 2024. The cumulative import from January to October was 95.682 million tons, a 6.39% increase year - on - year [64]. - As of November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.8057 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected to reach 2.1579 million tons and 59.36% in the 46th week (November 8 - 14) [86]. - The rapeseed crushing in coastal areas has basically stopped, with a crushing volume of 0 tons and an operating rate of 0% this week and next week [87]. - As of November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 7.6195 million tons, a 7.20% increase from last week and a 35.97% increase year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory continued to decline [101]. - As of November 13, the total soybean meal transaction was 606,340 tons, a week - on - week increase of 221,100 tons. The daily average transaction was 172,700 tons, a 43.35% increase. The total soybean meal pick - up was 900,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons [119]. 3.5 Basis and Spread - The coastal soybean meal spot price ranged from 3010 - 3050 yuan/ton this week, with mixed price changes compared to last week. The national weekly average price was 3080 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. The average basis in coastal markets was between - 21 and - 61 yuan/ton, with mixed changes compared to the previous week. As of November 14, the basis of the January soybean meal contract in Rizhao was - 33 yuan/ton, and that of the January rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 128 yuan/ton [137].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, and the industry is currently in a low - volatility oscillation phase with no clear unilateral trend in the short - term [5]. Core View of the Report - The supply situation shows that palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is bearish, and rapeseed oil is bullish; demand is in a wait - and - see state; inventory has marginal bullish factors; macro and policy aspects are also in a wait - and - see state. Overall, the investment view is to wait and see, and it is recommended to wait or participate through buying options [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia has high inventory at the origin and low domestic purchases; soybean oil mill crushing volume increases; rapeseed oil crushing and imports both decrease [5]. - **Demand**: In the origin, Indonesia's B50 is being actively promoted but has bearish disturbances; the US bio - diesel RVO is undetermined; the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower oil trading volume compared to the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic oil inventory is decreasing. Palm oil inventory fluctuates slightly under weak supply and demand. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing due to raw material shortages [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: The meeting between Chinese and US leaders may bring new directions; Indonesia's B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year but faces obstacles; the US bio - diesel RVO is uncertain; there is an expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - **Investment View**: Currently, the oil market is in a low - volatility oscillation phase. There is no clear unilateral trend for now, but factors such as the Malaysian production reduction season, origin bio - diesel policies, and international trade policies may bring new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see or participate through buying options [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Go long on far - month oil and short on meal; Risk Focus: Crude oil fluctuations, policy disturbances; Options: Buy volatility of palm oil and soybean oil (collar options) [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trends of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5, and spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asia Weather**: It shows precipitation and temperature data including past 14 - day precipitation, precipitation anomalies, and future 7 - 14 - day precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia [17][19][22]. - **Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are provided [31][35]. - **Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are presented [36][42]. - **India's Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Difference**: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 is given [43][47]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply and Demand**: Data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume from 2021 - 2025 are shown [49][53]. - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It includes future 15 - day temperature and precipitation distributions in Brazilian and US soybean - producing areas, US soybean good - to - excellent rate, and harvest progress [61][63][68]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Data on US soybean cumulative export sales volume, export volume to China, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume from 2021 - 2026 are provided [74][79]. - **China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, domestic soybean oil production by pressing plants, daily trading volume, and weekly inventory from 2021 - 2025 is presented [89]. - **Rapeseed - Related Situations**: It includes future 15 - day precipitation and temperature distributions in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, soil moisture in Canada, rapeseed FOB prices, Canadian rapeseed weekly export volume, Canadian rapeseed import hedging profit, domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil expected arrival volume, Chinese rapeseed weekly pressing volume, rapeseed oil production by oil mills, rapeseed oil pick - up volume, and weekly inventory from 2021 - 2025 [90][99][104].

Core Insights - Vanguard index funds tracking European and international stocks have shown strong performance in 2023, attributed to changes in U.S. trade and fiscal policy [1] - The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF and Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF have gained 29% and 28% year to date, respectively, outperforming the S&P 500 by 15 and 14 percentage points [4][8] - Despite recent outperformance, European and international stocks have historically underperformed U.S. stocks over longer periods [4][8] Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF tracks over 1,200 stocks in major European markets, with significant weight in the U.K., France, and Germany, and sectors like financials, industrials, and healthcare [4] - The ETF has gained 29% year to date, but over the last five years, it has only added 53%, lagging behind the S&P 500 by 43 percentage points [4] - The expense ratio for the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF is 0.06%, significantly lower than the average of 0.81% for similar funds, making it an attractive option for investors [5] Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF measures over 3,800 companies in developed international markets, with a focus on Europe and the Asia-Pacific [7] - This ETF has advanced 28% year to date, also outperforming the S&P 500, but has only gained 46% over the last five years, trailing the S&P 500 by 50 percentage points [8] - The expense ratio for this ETF is 0.03%, compared to an average of 0.85% for similar funds, providing a cost-effective option for diversified international exposure [9] Market Trends and Analysis - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by about 11% in the first half of the year, benefiting international stock investments when measured in U.S. dollars [11] - Diverging monetary policies, with the European Central Bank cutting rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve held steady, have influenced investor preferences towards international equities [12] - Despite recent trends favoring international stocks, analysts predict that U.S. equities will continue to outperform, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 7% advance for the S&P 500 over the next year [14]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yichang Technology (002420.SZ), has stated that it currently does not export products to the United States and that its export business constitutes a minor portion of total revenue [1] Group 1: Business Impact - The company sources its main product raw materials domestically, indicating that the recent tariff adjustments will not impact its business operations [1] - The company will closely monitor changes in international trade policies and actively respond to ensure business stability [1]

Group 1 - The company is continuously monitoring changes in international trade policies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company currently has a low proportion of direct exports to the United States and will closely monitor changes in international trade policies to actively respond to tariff impacts [1] Group 1 - The company's direct export volume to the United States is currently low [1] - The company is committed to closely observing international trade policy changes [1] - The company plans to actively respond to the impacts of tariffs [1]