Nike FY26Q1 北美、跑步引领修复趋势，大中华仍需耐心 [Table_Industry] 纺织服装业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 曹冬青(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | caodongqing@gtht.com | S0880524080001 | 本报告导读： Nike FY2026Q1 收入利润均超预期，北美、跑步引领修复趋势，大中华仍需耐心， 建议关注相关投资机会。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 跟 踪 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.09 纺织服装业《25Q3 H&M 毛利率、费用率优化超 市场预期》2025.09.28 纺织服装业《8 月中美服装零售额均环比提速， 瑞士腕表出口走弱》2025.09.21 纺织服装业《8 月中越出口环比走弱，多数台企 收入 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 10 08 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题： Nike FY2026Q1 营收同比下降 1%，各地区持续推进库存去化 【本周专题】 分析师 杨莹 Nike FY2026Q1 营收同比下降 1%，净利润下降 31%。近期 Nike 发布截至 2025 年 8 月末的 FY2026Q1 季报，货币中性基础上公司营收同比下降 1%至 117 亿美元（直营下降 4%，批发下增长 7%），毛利率同比下降 3.2pcts 至 42.2%， SG&A 费用率同比下降 0.6pcts 至 34.3%，净利润同比下降 31%至 7.27 亿美元。 展望 FY2026Q2，公司预计营收同比下降低单位数，全财年来看公司预计批发业务 营收有望实现适度增长，与此同时全财年直营业务或仍有下降。 持续推动库存去化，公司预计到 FY2026H1 末库存恢复健康。截至 2025 年 8 月 末，公司库存同比下降 2%至 81.14 亿美元，公司正采取多项去库手段以实现库存 正常化，公司预计 FY2026H1 末库存水平将恢复正常。 全球各主要业务地区均持续推进库存去化，从品类角度看 ...

The Swoosh delivered on first-quarter results, sending shares of Nike Inc. up in after-hours trading. Nike’s president and chief executive officer Elliott Hill told investors in a late afternoon conference call on Tuesday that the company has realigned 8,000 of its employees to Sport Offense, a new initiative that aligns the three brands — Nike, Jordan and Converse — “into more nimble-focused teams by sport.” More from WWD He said the strategy will give each brand its own distinct identity to serve differ ...

Key Takeaways The Q1 revenues are projected at $11B, suggesting a 5% y/y fall, with EPS at $0.28, indicating a 60% decline.NIKE is rebalancing its portfolio, investing in innovation and strengthening wholesale partnerships.Tariffs, elevated SG&A and weakness in China are expected to pressure near-term margins and sales.NIKE Inc. (NKE) is slated to release first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Sept. 30. The leading sports apparel retailer is estimated to have witnessed year-over-year declines in the top and b ...

Key Takeaways NIKE shares jumped 20.6% in three months, outpacing the industry, sector and the broader market.The Win Now strategy drives brand refresh, wholesale revival and sharper marketplace focus.North America, EMEA and APLA regions show signs of stabilization and category-specific growth.NIKE Inc. (NKE) stock has witnessed a strong rally in recent months, following a prolonged slowdown, led by tough operating conditions, including weakness in the lifestyle segment and a decline in digital sales, refle ...

Core Insights - lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) reported Q2 fiscal 2025 earnings per share of $3.10, exceeding expectations, but revenues of $2.53 billion fell short due to weak U.S. performance, while international markets like China showed double-digit growth [1][10] Financial Performance - Comparable sales in the Americas declined, prompting management to lower fiscal 2025 revenue guidance to flat or slightly down in the U.S. [2] - The company has seen a revenue tripling over six years, but the recent slowdown indicates a more challenging environment for premium activewear [2] Product Innovation and Strategy - lululemon has relied heavily on product innovation to drive growth, with recent successful launches like Align No Line and Daydrift enhancing its reputation for high-performance design [3] - Core casual franchises such as Scuba and Softstreme have become less appealing, with customers showing diminished interest in seasonal updates [3] - New product additions, including Loungeful and Big Cozy, aim to increase newness penetration from 23% to 35% by spring 2026, indicating a focus on balancing core products with fresh designs [4] Execution Challenges - Concerns remain regarding the speed of execution and adaptability to consumer trends, with management acknowledging that product life cycles in lounge and social categories have become too predictable [5] - To address these issues, lululemon is fast-tracking design processes and leveraging AI for innovation [5] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Ralph Lauren and NIKE are also focusing on innovation to capture consumer interest amid lululemon's slowing sales [6] - Ralph Lauren's strategy includes blending timeless style with innovation, while NIKE emphasizes performance-led franchises to drive growth [7][8] Stock Performance and Valuation - lululemon's shares have decreased by 58.2% year-to-date, compared to a 29.8% decline in the industry [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.01X, which is higher than the industry's 11.19X [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for lululemon's fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a year-over-year decline of 10.3%, while fiscal 2026 EPS is expected to grow by 2.1% [13]

Core Insights - NIKE Inc.'s fiscal 2025 results revealed a 12% year-over-year decline in revenues for the fourth quarter, driven by inventory challenges and weakening demand in classic franchises like Air Force 1, Dunk, and AJ1 [1][8] - Management is implementing "Win Now" actions and a new "sport offense" strategy to lay the groundwork for recovery, with a notable improvement in the wholesale order book indicating renewed confidence from partners [1][2] Financial Performance - The holiday order book has shown a year-over-year increase, suggesting that wholesale partners are optimistic about NIKE's ability to innovate while offering fresh sportswear [2] - Key franchises in running, basketball, and women's performance are experiencing strong sell-throughs, particularly for models like the Vomero 18 and A'ja Wilson's signature line [2] - North America, EMEA, and APLA regions reported stronger holiday bookings, although there is ongoing weakness in China, indicating a potential broad-based recovery in fiscal 2026 [2][3] Future Outlook - The first half of fiscal 2026 is expected to face challenges from inventory liquidation, tariff headwinds, and digital repositioning, but the stronger holiday order book may signal a turning point in the latter half of the fiscal year [3] - If NIKE can maintain wholesale momentum and execute its innovation pipeline effectively, fiscal 2026 could mark the beginning of a recovery, although converting wholesale enthusiasm into consistent consumer demand, especially in China, remains a challenge [3] Competitive Landscape - NIKE faces significant competition from adidas AG and lululemon athletica inc., both of which are strong players in the global sportswear and athletic apparel market [4][5][6] - adidas is recognized for its performance innovation and cultural relevance, particularly in soccer and running, while lululemon has carved out a niche in premium athletic apparel with a focus on community and wellness [5][6] Stock Performance and Valuation - NIKE shares have increased by 3.1% year to date, outperforming the industry's growth of 0.8% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 40.95X, compared to the industry average of 30.82X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a projected earnings decline of 21.8% for fiscal 2026, followed by a growth forecast of 53.7% for fiscal 2027 [10]

Core Insights - NIKE Inc. (NKE) is fundamentally strong, focusing on sustainable and profitable long-term growth, but its current forward 12-month P/E multiple of 41.31X raises valuation concerns compared to the industry average of 30.99X [1][3][22] Valuation Concerns - NIKE's forward 12-month P/S ratio stands at 2.5X, higher than the industry's 2.13X, contributing to investor unease and a low Value Score of D [2] - The elevated P/E ratio indicates high investor expectations for growth, but compared to competitors like adidas, Skechers, and Wolverine, NIKE's valuation appears misaligned with its growth trajectory [3][4] Competitive Landscape - NIKE's P/E ratio of 41.31X is significantly higher than its peers: adidas at 18.3X, Skechers at 16.19X, and Wolverine at 21.62X, suggesting that NIKE may be overvalued [3][4] - Despite a year-to-date stock recovery of 3.9%, NIKE still lags behind the Consumer Discretionary sector's 11.4% rally and the S&P 500's 9.4% growth [5][8] Strategic Initiatives - The "Win Now" initiative aims to revitalize NIKE's core strengths in sport, innovation, and marketplace execution, contributing to recent positive sentiment and stock performance [5][15] - NIKE is reorganizing into sport-specific teams to enhance innovation and consumer connections, with early signs of improvement in holiday order books and full-price sell-through [16] Financial Performance and Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE's fiscal 2026 EPS has declined by 1.2% over the past 30 days, indicating potential challenges despite positive order backlog [19] - For fiscal 2026, revenue and EPS are expected to decline by 1.3% and 21.8% year-over-year, while fiscal 2027 estimates indicate a recovery with 6% revenue growth and 53.7% EPS growth [20] Long-term Perspective - NIKE's turnaround journey shows promise, with a focus on innovation and brand revitalization positioning it for long-term success, although premium valuation may deter new investors [22][23] - Existing shareholders may find NIKE a solid long-term investment, while prospective investors might consider waiting for more favorable entry points [23]

Core Insights - The athletic footwear market is experiencing intensified competition, with NIKE Inc. and Deckers Outdoor Corporation as key players attracting investor interest [2] - The question arises regarding which stock presents greater upside potential in the near future [2] NIKE Overview - NIKE maintains its status as a global brand leader, with strong cultural and performance influence through its brands like NIKE, Jordan, and Converse [3] - In fiscal 2025, NIKE regained momentum through significant sports events, enhancing its emotional connection with consumers [3] - Performance categories showed strong results, with running sales growing in the high-single digits and women's basketball sales increasing over 50% year-over-year [4] - Marketplace strategies, including collaborations with DICK'S Sporting Goods and JD Sports, have improved sell-through rates and in-store experiences [5] - However, NIKE faced financial challenges, with Q4 revenues declining 12% to $11.1 billion and gross margins contracting 440 basis points to 40.3% due to discounting and supply chain issues [6] - Greater China remains a challenge, with revenues down 20% and EBIT declining 45%, indicating a slower recovery compared to other regions [7] Deckers Overview - Deckers is experiencing strong growth, particularly in its HOKA and UGG brands, with HOKA sales rising 19.8% to $653.1 million and UGG sales climbing 18.9% to $265.1 million [8] - International markets are a significant growth driver, with companywide international revenues increasing 49.7% year-over-year [9] - Deckers' innovation and brand storytelling are central to its strategy, with ongoing product development and new launches [11] - The company's omni-channel and wholesale strategies are yielding scalable growth, with wholesale net sales rising 26.7% in the first quarter [12] - Despite challenges such as anticipated tariff costs and profitability pressures, Deckers is well-positioned for sustainable growth [13] Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE suggests declines in sales and EPS for fiscal 2026, with a 10.6% downward revision in EPS estimates over the past 60 days [14] - In contrast, Deckers' estimates imply a 9% growth in sales for fiscal 2026, with a slight decline in EPS, but a 4% increase in EPS estimates over the past 60 days [17] - Stock performance over the past three months shows DECK shares rising 3.6%, while NKE shares gained 26.9%, reflecting NIKE's stronger brand momentum [19] - Valuation metrics indicate NIKE's forward P/E at 40.28, significantly higher than Deckers' 16.13, suggesting NIKE is pricier relative to historical levels [21] Investment Outlook - Deckers is positioned as a stronger investment candidate due to robust growth in HOKA and UGG, international expansion, and a healthy product pipeline [24] - NIKE, while investing in innovation and digital transformation, faces near-term challenges from revenue declines and margin pressures, making Deckers a more favorable option to hold [25]

Core Insights - NIKE Inc. is experiencing a decline in demand for its iconic franchises, leading to a significant revenue headwind of nearly $1 billion in fiscal 2025 [1][8] - The company is focusing on fresh product launches and sport-led innovation to drive recovery, with early sales momentum seen in new products like the Vomero 18 and A'ja Wilson's signature line [2][8] - The success of NIKE's strategy will depend on its ability to scale new franchises quickly and maintain consumer excitement across its product categories [3] Company Strategy - NIKE is intentionally downsizing its classic footwear lines, which saw a decline of over 30% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, to reset brand positioning and innovate its product portfolio [1][8] - The company is aligning its business into sport-specific teams and expanding into women's basketball and global football, aiming to deepen athlete connections [2][3] Competitive Landscape - NIKE faces competition from adidas and lululemon, both of which are also addressing challenges with fading classic franchises through innovation and new product launches [4][5][6] - adidas is focusing on performance-driven products and collaborations, while lululemon is expanding its product innovation engine and diversifying its portfolio [5][6] Financial Performance - NIKE's shares have gained 0.7% year to date, contrasting with a 1.6% decline in the industry [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for NIKE is 40.37X, higher than the industry average of 30.25X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 21.8% for fiscal 2025, followed by a projected growth of 53.7% in fiscal 2026 [10]