2025 年 08 月 25 日 利润显著修复，终端开瓶向好 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-08-22 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 60.91 | | 总市值（亿元） | 203 | | 总股本（百万股） | 333 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 333 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 40.18-82.9 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 637.75 | 市场表现 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) 舍得酒业 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《舍得酒业（600702）：业绩表 现承压，期待弹性恢复》2025-05- 07 2、《舍得酒业（600702）：业绩短 期承压，期待企稳回升》2025-03- 24 3、《舍得酒业（600702）：调整期 业绩承压，发布回购方案彰 ...

美容护理/医疗美容 爱美客（300896.SZ） 2025 年 08 月 21 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/20 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 188.50 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 282.72/132.81 | | 总市值(亿元) | 570.39 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 393.20 | | 总股本(亿股) | 3.03 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.09 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 94.36 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 爱美客 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024 年利润稳健，管线丰富叠加海 外收购助力增长—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.3.24 《三季度增长承压，期待后续管线落 地打开成长空间—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.10.24 黄泽鹏（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 事件：公司 2025H1 归母净利润同比下滑 29.6%，业绩有所承压 公司发布半年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5][20]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with TDI price increases anticipated to drive profit recovery [1][10]. - Wanhua Chemical's TDI production capacity is expected to reach 144,000 tons per year by May 2025, enhancing its competitive edge in the polyurethane market [10][12]. - The company is focusing on innovation and expanding its product lines, which is expected to create new profit growth points [11][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 175,361 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 245,163 million yuan, with a growth rate of 7.5% [1][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 16,816 million yuan in 2023, declining to 13,033 million yuan in 2024, but recovering to 20,340 million yuan by 2027 [1][12]. - The company's EPS is expected to be 5.36 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 4.15 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 6.48 yuan by 2027 [1][12]. Product Performance - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from the polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals segments was 368.88 billion yuan, 349.34 billion yuan, and 156.28 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of 4.04%, -11.73%, and 20.41% [2][4]. - The average market price for TDI in the first half of 2025 was around 12,400 yuan per ton, reflecting an 18.42% year-on-year decline [2][10]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the polyurethane segment was 25.68%, while the petrochemical segment experienced a negative gross margin of -0.37% [2][4]. - The average price of raw materials such as pure benzene decreased by 21.53% year-on-year, impacting overall cost structures [3][9]. Capacity and Production - In the first half of 2025, the production of polyurethane products was 2.98 million tons, an increase of 5.30% year-on-year, while sales rose by 12.64% to 3.03 million tons [4][9]. - The company successfully launched new production lines, including MS devices and specialty amines, which are expected to enhance its product offerings [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in new contracts signed in the first half of 2025, which will strongly support future performance [5]. - The total new contracts signed in the first half of 2025 amounted to 2.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. The construction business contributed 2.32 trillion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [5]. - The real estate business remains industry-leading despite a decline in contract sales, with a total of 174.5 billion yuan in sales, down 8.9% year-on-year [5]. - The company has a robust land reserve of 76.27 million square meters, with 5.2 million square meters acquired in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.18715 trillion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.5%, and a net profit of 461.9 billion yuan, down 14.9% [5]. - The company has a high dividend yield of approximately 4.5%, with a dividend payout ratio of 24.3% in 2024, the highest since its listing [5]. - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.16 yuan and 1.20 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 5.08 and 4.9 times [5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the global construction industry, demonstrating resilience during recent cyclical downturns in the real estate and construction sectors [5]. Financial Performance - The company’s first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 555.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit of 150.13 billion yuan, up 0.6% [5]. Market Position - The company’s real estate sales scale is industry-leading, and it is expected to further increase market share amid cyclical challenges [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to continue high growth in mid-year performance, with ongoing strong market trading activity. The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in this sector [2][4] - The insurance sector is guided by a recent notice from the Ministry of Finance, emphasizing long-term investment strategies and management capabilities, which is expected to drive stable long-term capital inflows into the market. The report recommends companies like Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance based on their stable profitability and dividend rates [2][4] - The report also suggests a focus on companies with strong performance elasticity and valuation levels, recommending Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [2][4] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is experiencing a recovery with high trading volumes, and mid-year performance is expected to show significant growth. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality stocks within this sector [2][4] - The average daily trading volume in the market has increased to 14,961.49 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.80% increase week-on-week, indicating a strong recovery in trading activity [5][36] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry has seen a year-on-year increase in premium income, with total premiums reaching 30,602 billion yuan in May 2025, up 3.77% from the previous year. This includes a 5.22% increase in property insurance and a 3.28% increase in life insurance [19][20] - The report highlights the stable asset allocation of insurance funds, with a significant portion invested in bonds and stock funds, indicating a robust investment strategy [25][24] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index has shown a 4.0% increase this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.1%, indicating strong sector performance [5][16] - The report notes that the overall performance of the non-bank sector is strong, with the securities sector rising by 4.5% and the insurance sector by 1.7% [16][21] Financing Activities - In June 2025, equity financing reached 544.19 billion yuan, a significant increase of 3140.2% month-on-month, while bond financing also saw a rise to 88.3 billion yuan, up 21.3% [45][47] - The report indicates a recovery in the issuance of collective asset management products, with a notable increase in new issuances in June 2025 [49]

Core Viewpoint - Meinuo's net profit for the first half of the year is expected to increase by 142.84% to 174.52%, amounting to between 46 million to 52 million yuan, driven by increased revenue and improved gross margins [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit growth, excluding non-recurring items, is projected to be between 55.80% and 86.33% [1] - In Q1, Meinuo reported revenue of 276 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.22%, with a net profit of 21.22 million yuan, up 51.12% [1] - The expected profit range for the first half of the year is only slightly above the same period in 2018, indicating a recovery and release of performance after two years of decline [1] Group 2: Industry Context - During the public health crisis, global raw material shortages led to an expansion of raw material drug production capacity, resulting in many new but unprofitable companies entering the market [2] - Meinuo's management believes that the raw material drug sector will see a "survival of the fittest" scenario, with stronger companies emerging post-competition [2] - The industry is expected to recover by 2025, with stable prices for key products and some intermediate products experiencing price increases [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Institutions predict Meinuo's 2025 revenue to reach 1.653 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.43%, and net profit to be 152 million yuan, up 127.75% [3] - Since May, Meinuo's stock price has risen by 54%, with a recent surge attributed to performance recovery and advancements in the JH389 project for obesity treatment [3] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the University of Michigan for the JH389 project, which has shown promising data in animal models [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities suggests focusing on high-quality brokerage firms with leading advantages across multiple business lines during the performance recovery phase, particularly highlighting firms like CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy Securities [1] Group 1: Market Overview - Since the beginning of 2025, the A-share brokerage sector has maintained volatility, significantly underperforming the broader market, with the brokerage index down 9.2% year-to-date, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by approximately 7.6 percentage points [1] - The brokerage sector has exhibited three phases of performance: 1) January to mid-March 2025 saw a peak followed by a retreat; 2) mid-March to mid-April experienced deep adjustments; 3) since mid-April, policy support has led to a recovery in valuations, although the sector remains in a volatile range [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the total revenue of 43 listed brokerages reached 126.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 78.7% to 51.9 billion yuan, marking five consecutive quarters of sequential recovery [2] - The revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 shows that proprietary trading and brokerage income accounted for over half of total revenue, with proprietary trading revenue at 48.5 billion yuan, up 44.8% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 rose to a near-term high of 41.2%, with return on equity (ROE) increasing by 3.15 percentage points year-on-year to 7.75% [3] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to a recovery in market conditions and enhanced earnings capabilities of securities firms [3] Group 4: Business Segments - Proprietary trading revenue for listed brokerages in Q1 2025 was 48.5 billion yuan, up 50.3% year-on-year, maintaining a high level despite a slight decline from previous quarters [4] - Brokerage income in Q1 2025 reached 33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43.1%, supported by high trading volumes in the market [5] - Investment banking revenue showed a decline, with IPO and follow-on underwriting volumes at 15 billion yuan and 131.7 billion yuan, respectively, while bond underwriting decreased by 20.0% [5] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The ongoing recovery in performance and the potential for mergers and acquisitions are expected to continue as key themes in the industry, with valuations remaining at low levels, highlighting the investment value [6] - The net asset scale of brokerages is anticipated to grow, driven by performance improvements and ongoing restructuring efforts within the industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities indicates a positive policy environment since the beginning of the year, with expectations for liquidity support through interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which may boost market confidence and trading activity in 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share brokerage sector has experienced a turbulent performance in 2025, underperforming the broader market, with the brokerage index down 9.2% year-to-date as of June 6, 2025, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by approximately 7.6 percentage points [1] - The brokerage sector has shown three phases of performance: 1) a high followed by a pullback from January to mid-March 2025; 2) a deep adjustment alongside the broader market from mid-March to mid-April; 3) a recovery in valuations since mid-April due to policy support, although still within a volatile range [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q1 2025, the total revenue of 43 listed brokerages reached 126.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 78.7% to 51.9 billion yuan, marking five consecutive quarters of sequential recovery [2] - The revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 shows that proprietary trading and brokerage income accounted for over half of total revenues, with proprietary trading income at 48.5 billion yuan, up 44.8% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 rose to a near-record high of 41.2%, with return on equity (ROE) increasing by 3.15 percentage points year-on-year to 7.75% [3] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to a recovery in market conditions and enhanced earnings capabilities of securities firms [3] Group 4: Business Segments - Proprietary trading income for listed brokerages in Q1 2025 was 48.5 billion yuan, up 50.3% year-on-year, maintaining a high level despite a slight decline from previous quarters [4] - The balance of margin financing at the end of Q1 2025 reached 1.62 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.3% [4] - Brokerage income in Q1 2025 was 33 billion yuan, up 43.1% year-on-year, supported by high trading volumes in the market [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing recovery in performance and the potential for mergers and acquisitions are expected to continue driving the industry forward, with the net asset scale of brokerages likely to increase [6] - The price-to-book ratio for the brokerage sector has remained around 1.45x in 2025, indicating a relatively low valuation and highlighting the potential for investment opportunities [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the securities industry, suggesting a focus on quality brokers with strong performance across multiple business lines, particularly highlighting Citic Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy Securities as key targets [6]. Core Insights - The A-share brokerage sector has experienced a turbulent performance in 2025, with the sector index down 9.2% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 7.6 percentage points [1][10]. - The report indicates a recovery in earnings, with a significant increase in net profit for listed brokers, which rose to CNY 519 billion in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 78.7% [2][28]. - The brokerage sector's revenue composition shows that proprietary trading and brokerage income accounted for over half of total revenues, with proprietary trading maintaining a high proportion since 2011 [2][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Sector Performance - The brokerage sector has shown a fluctuating performance characterized by three distinct phases in 2025, with a notable recovery in valuations driven by policy support since mid-April [1][10][13]. 2. Earnings Summary - In Q1 2025, the total revenue for 43 listed brokers was CNY 1,261 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.0%. The net profit for the same period was CNY 519 billion, up 78.7% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery trend [2][28]. 3. Proprietary Trading - The proprietary trading income for listed brokers reached CNY 485 billion in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 50.3%. This segment continues to support overall earnings despite a slight decline from previous highs [3][36]. 4. Brokerage Business - The brokerage business has remained active, with average daily trading volumes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets at CNY 2.07 trillion and CNY 1.75 trillion for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively. Brokerage income increased to CNY 330 billion in Q1 2025, up 43.1% year-on-year [4][36]. 5. Asset Management - The asset management business saw a decline in AUM, with an average management fee rate of 0.17%, down from the previous year. However, the report anticipates stabilization in AUM as the transition of existing asset management products progresses [4][36]. 6. Credit Business - The credit business reported a lending balance of CNY 16.2 trillion by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.3%, indicating a robust growth trajectory in this segment [3][36]. 7. Investment Banking - Investment banking revenues showed a mixed performance, with IPO underwriting down 31.7% year-on-year, while follow-on offerings increased by 83.1%. The report suggests that the bond underwriting market may stabilize following recent monetary policy adjustments [4][36]. 8. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality brokers with strong recovery potential across various business lines, particularly those that have demonstrated leadership in their respective segments [5][6].

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **controller sector** and its recovery potential, particularly in the context of **laser radar and robotics** industries [1][2]. Key Points 1. The controller sector has experienced significant overselling, with a notable improvement in the underlying fundamentals, indicating potential for both performance and valuation recovery [1][2]. 2. Historical analysis over the past decade shows that the stock performance of representative companies in the controller sector, such as **He Tai** and **Tuo Bang**, is highly sensitive to earnings and raw material price fluctuations [1][2]. 3. External factors have impacted the sector, but Q1 earnings have begun to show signs of recovery [1][2]. 4. The stock price elasticity is high under thematic catalysts, suggesting potential for significant price movements [1][2]. Company-Specific Insights - **He Sai Technology**: Reported a delivery volume of nearly **200,000 units** in Q1, representing a year-on-year increase of **231%** [1][2]. - **Su Teng Ju Chuang**: Continues to narrow its net losses, with promising orders in the broader robotics sector [1][2]. Additional Important Information - The laser radar segment is identified as a "second growth curve" for the robotics field, particularly in consumer-grade robotics, indicating a shift in market dynamics and potential growth opportunities [1][2].