Nike FY26Q1 北美、跑步引领修复趋势，大中华仍需耐心 [Table_Industry] 纺织服装业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 曹冬青(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | caodongqing@gtht.com | S0880524080001 | 本报告导读： Nike FY2026Q1 收入利润均超预期，北美、跑步引领修复趋势，大中华仍需耐心， 建议关注相关投资机会。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 跟 踪 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.09 纺织服装业《25Q3 H&M 毛利率、费用率优化超 市场预期》2025.09.28 纺织服装业《8 月中美服装零售额均环比提速， 瑞士腕表出口走弱》2025.09.21 纺织服装业《8 月中越出口环比走弱，多数台企 收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 exceeded market expectations, showing signs of recovery with a revenue increase of 5.76% year-on-year and a significant net profit growth of 1481.94% [1][2]. - The recovery in profitability from the agricultural protection business and significant growth in the pharmaceutical sector are key drivers of the company's improving performance [2][8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas operations and enhancing its product offerings in the agricultural protection and pharmaceutical sectors, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [8][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 68.82 billion, 79.49 billion, and 90.29 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.2%, 15.5%, and 13.6% [9]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits are 4.09 billion, 5.81 billion, and 7.28 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 297.0%, 42.0%, and 25.2% [9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.44, 0.63, and 0.79 yuan, respectively [9]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 25.6, 18.0, and 14.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [9]. Business Segment Performance - **Agricultural Protection**: Revenue from agricultural intermediates was 17.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 9.13%. However, the gross margin improved to 24.99%, up 9.48 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - **Pharmaceuticals**: The pharmaceutical segment saw revenue of 10.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.80%, with a stable gross margin [8]. - **New Energy**: The company has commercialized four new energy products and is advancing several others through various stages of development, indicating potential for a second growth curve [9].

Group 1 - The gaming sector showed strong performance with the gaming ETF (159869) gaining over 1% and attracting a net inflow of 247 million yuan over three consecutive days [1] - Key stocks in the ETF include Jiubite leading with a nearly 7.5% increase, followed by Shunwang Technology up over 4%, and Kaiying Network rising more than 3.5% [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, the domestic gaming market is expected to reach an actual sales revenue of 168 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 14.08% and setting a historical high [1] Group 2 - The A-share gaming sector reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 22.8% in the first half of the year, indicating that the industry is on the right side of the inflection point [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) expectations are anticipated to drive continued performance improvements in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [1] - The gaming sector is currently valued at a low level, with a potential to reach a 20 times P/E ratio by 2026, compared to the current average valuation of approximately 16 times P/E [1] Group 3 - The gaming sector is experiencing multiple catalysts including AI, content, and commercialization model transformations [1] - The gaming ETF (159869) tracks the CSI Animation and Gaming Index, reflecting the overall performance of A-share listed companies in the animation and gaming industry [1] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the investment opportunities within the gaming ETF (159869) [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18][22] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 is under pressure due to price competition, but there is optimism for profit recovery driven by anti-involution trends [1][2] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 25.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 436 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.17% [1][7] - The company has maintained a stable market share despite a slight decline, with a total business volume of 6.54 billion pieces in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.0% [1][15] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted, with net profits expected to be 1.29 billion yuan in 2025, 1.63 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.90 billion yuan in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 26%, and 17% respectively [3][18] - The company's capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was 1.39 billion yuan, a slight decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [2][17] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 741 million yuan, showing a decline primarily due to price reductions and growth in large customer business [2][17] Market Position and Strategy - The company has implemented a strategy of following market pricing trends, resulting in a decrease in average express delivery prices to approximately 1.97 yuan per piece, down 2.5% year-on-year [1][15] - The company’s network capacity is expected to improve, with daily throughput capacity projected to reach 90 million pieces by the end of 2025, up from 75 million pieces at the end of 2024 [1][15] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20X for 2025 and 16X for 2026 [3][18] - The company’s estimated revenue for 2025 is 53.54 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of approximately 3.2% [4][20]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 7.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and adjusted net profit of 360 million yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year [1][2]. Revenue Performance - All three business segments recorded positive growth, with milk powder revenue rebounding. Overall revenue increased by 4.9% year-on-year, with ANC revenue up 5% and ANC China revenue up 13.1%, driven by strong performance of Swisse's new product categories and rapid growth in cross-border e-commerce and new retail channels [1]. - ANC Australia and New Zealand revenue decreased by 18.5% due to adjustments in the purchasing agent channel [1]. - BNC revenue increased by 2.9%, with milk powder revenue up 9.6%, while probiotics and infant nutrition products saw declines of 16% and 17.1%, respectively [1]. - PNC revenue grew by 9.6%, with PNC China revenue up 17.5% and North America PNC revenue up 6.4%, driven by Zesty Paws' 12.8% revenue growth, while Solid Gold's revenue fell by 23.3% [1]. Profitability Metrics - EBITDA margin remained healthy, with adjusted net profit margin improving. ANC's adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 20.9%, primarily due to increased investment in overseas expansion and a higher proportion of sales through Douyin in China [2]. - BNC's adjusted EBITDA margin fell by 2.6 percentage points to 12.4%, mainly due to costs associated with the new national standard transition and consumer education [2]. - PNC's adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to 12.4%, benefiting from improvements in product and channel mix [2]. - The company completed refinancing in 1H25, with financing costs rising by 34% year-on-year to 580 million yuan, impacting overall profit performance [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve high single-digit revenue growth for the full year, with ANC projected to see mid to high single-digit growth [2]. - Milk powder business is anticipated to accelerate to low double-digit growth in the second half of the year, while PNC is expected to continue its growth trend [2]. - The company forecasts continued improvement in internal profit margins and ongoing optimization of financial costs [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 5% and 6% to 640 million yuan and 760 million yuan, respectively, due to the recovery in the milk powder business [3]. - The current valuation is set at 14 and 11 times the P/E for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price increase of 23% to 17.7 HKD, corresponding to 16 and 14 times the P/E for 2025 and 2026, indicating a 20% upside potential [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed significant improvement in the second quarter, indicating a recovery in profitability and operational performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 390 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.08%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 54 million yuan, down 1.40% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 176 million yuan, down 4.37% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7 million yuan, a decline of 67.32% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue increased to 214 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.82% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.06%. Net profit for Q2 was 47 million yuan, up 45.17% year-on-year and 528.73% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The company's gross profit margin improved from 16.23% in Q1 to 29.67% in Q2, while the net profit margin rose from 4.21% to 21.87% [2]. Industry Demand and Orders - The industry demand is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in new orders. The company signed new contracts worth 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.12% [2]. - The total amount of contracts on hand reached nearly 2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.45% [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 121 million yuan, 131 million yuan, and 141 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.52, 1.65, and 1.77 yuan [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 31, 29, and 27 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. - Given the company's position as a leading SMO enterprise in China, its improving performance, and rapid growth in new orders, the investment rating is maintained at "Accumulate" [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report on Hongchuan Wisdom (002930) indicates a phase of losses in the first half of 2025, but the company's cash flow capabilities support potential performance recovery [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 was 590 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19.80%, with Q2 2025 revenue at 267 million yuan, down 24.94% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was -12 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease of 109.20%, with Q2 2025 showing a net loss of 33 million yuan, down 145.64% [4]. Business Segment Analysis - The comprehensive warehousing services generated revenue of 530 million yuan in H1 2025, a decline of 21.84% year-on-year [5]. - The terminal tank business had a capacity of 5.1844 million cubic meters by the end of H1 2025, with revenue of 487 million yuan, down 23.72% year-on-year, and gross profit of 176 million yuan, down 46.86% [5]. - The chemical warehouse business saw a capacity of 125,300 square meters, an increase of 93.07% year-on-year, with revenue of 43 million yuan, up 8.60% [5]. Cash Flow and Financial Outlook - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 385 million yuan in H1 2025, with Q2 2025 cash flow at 184 million yuan [5]. - Financial expenses decreased to 106 million yuan in H1 2025, down 14.46% year-on-year, and 51 million yuan in Q2 2025, down 17.96% [5]. - The company is expected to reduce financial expenses further, especially with convertible bonds maturing in July 2026, indicating potential for profit recovery [5]. Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.168 billion, 1.442 billion, and 1.729 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -19.44%, 23.48%, and 19.89% respectively [6]. - Expected net profits for the same years are 36 million, 140 million, and 262 million yuan, with growth rates of -76.95%, 282.70%, and 87.95% respectively [6]. - Corresponding EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.08, 0.31, and 0.57 yuan, with PE ratios of 152.08, 39.74, and 21.14 respectively [6].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Zhongtai Automobile has increased by 10.12%, reflecting positive market sentiment and potential recovery in the automotive sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 9:35 AM, Zhongtai Automobile's stock price reached 2.83 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 14.27 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a trading volume of 1.214 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 8.62% [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The company won a first-instance victory in intellectual property and sales contract disputes, which reduces legal risks and enhances market confidence, linked to improvements in corporate governance [2]. - The 2025 semi-annual performance forecast indicates a significant narrowing of losses year-on-year, reflecting ongoing operational improvements and associated performance recovery themes [2]. - The overall recovery trend in the automotive industry, along with increased interest in the new energy vehicle sector, positions the company to benefit from favorable policies and market demand related to its new energy vehicle offerings [2]. Group 3: Business Segments - Zhongtai Automobile is primarily involved in vehicle manufacturing, new energy vehicles, performance recovery, corporate governance improvements, and automotive parts [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth but a decline in net profit, while showing strong growth in non-recurring net profit [1][4]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 61.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.39%. The non-recurring net profit was 7.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.78% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 28.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with net profit of 2.326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.65%, and non-recurring net profit of 2.387 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.48% [1]. Product Performance - The liquid milk segment generated revenue of 16.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, indicating ongoing pressure in the ambient milk market, although the decline was less severe due to a low base from the previous year. Conversely, the low-temperature liquid milk segment saw growth, with the "Changqing" brand achieving double-digit growth and low-temperature white milk increasing over 20% year-on-year [2]. - Revenue from milk powder and dairy products was 7.765 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.65%, driven by a recovery in the infant formula market and strengthened competitiveness. The ice cream segment generated revenue of 4.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.96%, benefiting from higher summer temperatures and increased consumer spending [2]. Operational Efficiency - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 34.19%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost advantages and a higher proportion of high-margin products like milk powder. The overall expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs improved, with a notable decrease in advertising and marketing expenses [3]. - The company experienced a reduction in credit impairment losses and asset impairment losses, contributing to a net profit margin of 7.94%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit margin improved to 8.28%, up 2.41 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - For H2 2025, the company expects steady revenue growth driven by healthy inventory levels in ambient milk, innovative low-temperature products, and a recovery in infant formula demand. The cold drink segment is also anticipated to continue its strong performance due to a low base from the previous year [4]. - The company is positioned for improved profitability as it enters Q3, with expectations of stabilizing milk prices and reduced impairment pressures, indicating a clear trend of profit improvement [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. with a target price of 36 yuan [2][6]. Core Views - The company's performance is showing clear signs of recovery, with a notable improvement in profitability trends. The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in net profit and a positive revenue growth trajectory [2][6]. - The report highlights that despite a challenging industry environment, Yili's inventory management and innovative product offerings in the low-temperature segment are expected to stabilize revenue growth [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, Yili achieved a revenue of 61.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.2 billion yuan, down 4.39% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78% year-on-year [2][6]. - The second quarter of 2025 recorded a revenue of 28.838 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, with net profit increasing by 44.65% to 2.326 billion yuan [2][6]. - Key financial metrics forecasted for 2025 include total revenue of 119.109 billion yuan, a net profit of 10.742 billion yuan, and earnings per share of 1.70 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times [2][6]. Product Segment Performance - The report notes that the liquid milk segment faced challenges with a revenue decline of 0.85% year-on-year, while the low-temperature liquid milk segment experienced robust growth, with the "Changqing" brand achieving double-digit growth [2][6]. - Revenue from milk powder and dairy products increased by 9.65% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in the infant formula market and enhanced competitiveness [2][6]. - The ice cream segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of 37.96% year-on-year, attributed to higher summer temperatures and improved consumer spending [2][6]. Cost and Efficiency Improvements - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 34.19%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to cost advantages and a higher proportion of high-margin products [2][6]. - The report indicates a reduction in credit impairment losses and asset impairment losses, contributing positively to profitability, with the net profit margin reaching 7.94%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates stable revenue growth in the second half of 2025, supported by healthy inventory levels and innovative product launches. The demand for infant formula is expected to recover, and the cheese segment is projected to drive growth [2][6]. - The report suggests that with the stabilization of milk prices and reduced impairment pressures, Yili is well-positioned to meet its annual operational targets [2][6].